Report: “Another Disconnect” Between Botterill and Krueger

[dudacek]

@LGR4GM are you telling me you didn’t see that ^^^ coming?

 

[Pimlach]

Whatever happened to playing the game to your players strengths?   Why put a system in that limits Dahlin to accommodate Bogo or McCabe? 
 

The emphasis on coaching “systems” is to keep the poorest players from screwing up;  so many analytics to ponder; and competitive emotion is replaced with cautious overthinking. 
 

The game today is not the game I grew up loving.  

Edited May 3, 2020 by Pimlach

[That Aud Smell]

12 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Chad's hockey (and insider) input is not worth how obnoxious he is about it  

9 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

And then he pulls ***** like the way he presented this publication (he ABSOLUTELY wanted it to sound like it did), and it makes me so angry that once in a while he calls the Rodrigues trade and therefore DOES have a shred of credibility 

This is helpful context on Chad (Chet).

Also, your other recent posts in this thread were intense.

 

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

@LGR4GM are you telling me you didn’t see that ^^^ coming?

 

It isn't about seeing it coming. It is about dump and chase hockey. My issue isn't that defenders are primarily passing to forwards. It isn't that they are not skating the puck up the ice. It is that we have all these high end skating defenders who are passing off rush responsibility to a forward group that is bad. Also Dahlin. Out of all the defenders in the entire NHL, Dahlin is 1 of maybe 10 total that I would rather he rush up the ice and carry the puck it in. Seeing and increase in dumping the puck in by defenders is alarming. Why? Because it gives away possession. The other alarming thing is the shots we do generate in the offensive zone. I would love another article that looks at that. There is a lot wrong with this team and how they are being coached and what players they are bringing in (Coaching/GM). This is just one part of that problem. 

Edited April 30, 2020 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

I think Flagg hits on the more serious issue, what happens once the puck is in the zone? I can answer that, they cycle it low and than back to the point, typically there is a point shot or halfwall shot and they hope someone gets a rebound. It is a reason their powerplay went to hell. As Ryan Stimson noted that you need to be running the powerplay below the goal line 2 years ago. Further the Sabres don't generate enough cross ice passes. Things flow north south in the offensive zone instead of east west. This creates a very static environment and a major reason shot lanes don't open up. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I think Flagg hits on the more serious issue, what happens once the puck is in the zone? I can answer that, they cycle it low and than back to the point, typically there is a point shot or halfwall shot and they hope someone gets a rebound. It is a reason their powerplay went to hell. As Ryan Stimson noted that you need to be running the powerplay below the goal line 2 years ago. Further the Sabres don't generate enough cross ice passes. Things flow north south in the offensive zone instead of east west. This creates a very static environment and a major reason shot lanes don't open up. 

This is what I see. It is also something where coaching seems to play a large factor.

The conclusions being drawn in Chad's article is not what I see and I think Flagg did a good job pinpointing why his analysis is flawed.

Edited April 30, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

12 hours ago, spndnchz said:

There’s a whole bunch of stuff there. Did you want Bogo crossing the blue line or Eichel? Know your place and play that style when those guys are on the ice. Shutdown vs protect the game is not rocket science 

I want Rasmus Dahlin crossing the blue line. It is now making so much sense about why he stopped doing the amazing things he is great at. 

Edited April 30, 2020 by LGR4GM
spelling

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I want Rasmus Dahlin crossing the blue line. It is not making so much sense about why he stopped doing the amazing things he is great at. 

I'm going to have to re-read the article. I don't remember seeing this, let alone any any evidence that it was coached out of him.

[LGR4GM]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This is what I see. It is also something where coaching seems to play a large factor.

The conclusions being drawn in Chad's article is not what I see and I think did a good job pinpointing why his analysis is flawed.

His conclusion about disconnect? I didn't really get that either. I think that was a little questionable. 

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm going to have to re-read the article. I don't remember seeing this, let alone any any evidence that it was coached out of him.

"In Corey’s data, he (Dahlin) had a carry-in per 60 minutes rate of 3.5 and a carry-in percentage of 55% in his rookie year. This season, the carry-in rate per 60 minutes dropped to 2.56 and a carry-in percentage of 34%."

[SwampD]

28 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I want Rasmus Dahlin crossing the blue line. It is now making so much sense about why he stopped doing the amazing things he is great at. 

I wonder if some player development is involved with that.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I wonder if some player development is involved with that.

Maybe, but it took him 3 months to adjust and when he did the thing that I noticed was how much more he was carrying the puck. You want Dahlin carrying the puck. He has some of the best hands, best agility, best passing on the team. 

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Maybe, but it took him 3 months to adjust and when he did the thing that I noticed was how much more he was carrying the puck. You want Dahlin carrying the puck. He has some of the best hands, best agility, best passing on the team. 

He does, but what he didn’t have was some of the best defense on the team. I though he got considerably better in our own zone this year. Maybe it wasn’t a disconnect but an actual plan. Let’s hope.

[LGR4GM]

16 minutes ago, SwampD said:

He does, but what he didn’t have was some of the best defense on the team. I though he got considerably better in our own zone this year. Maybe it wasn’t a disconnect but an actual plan. Let’s hope.

If this team has a plan, I have yet to see it. 

[dudacek]

35 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Maybe, but it took him 3 months to adjust and when he did the thing that I noticed was how much more he was carrying the puck. You want Dahlin carrying the puck. He has some of the best hands, best agility, best passing on the team. 

This is more of what I was getting at. I thought we saw more of Ras carrying the puck as the season went on. And I agree he should be.

[Curt]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

I'm going to have to re-read the article. I don't remember seeing this, let alone any any evidence that it was coached out of him.

 

2 hours ago, SwampD said:

I wonder if some player development is involved with that.

Didn’t Krueger state that this was happening during the season?  Didn’t he matter of factly state that he wanted defense to be a focus for Dahlin and that it would reduce is offensive production?

[SabresFanInRochester]

On 4/28/2020 at 9:30 PM, nfreeman said:

Interesting.

Has anyone formulated an opinion about Chad D., especially whether he has good inside info?  I've read some of his stuff but not enough to come to any conclusions.

I don't like his stuff. I think he gets too emotional about his narrative and will find data that seems to reflect his position; I think he cherry picks. When you start finding data to support your narrative, instead of using data to form a hypothesis, it makes for a weak conclusion.

If I'm not mistaken, Chad evaluated Montour's stats while with Anaheim and he signed off on liking the trade. Now, the stats don't look so good so it's suddenly not the player, but the system. Yet with Ristolainen, it's not the system, it's player because Risto's numbers don't look good. I am not a fan of analytics for this reason. And I am not a fan of the Chad.

I think you will find that people like him: Because the Sabres are struggling, his narrative is that the team needs to be completely ripped down, so people who are in that camp will love him. But Joe Schmo who doesn't run analytics but knows hockey feels the same way -- the team is in a slump and changes must happen. The difference, and the issue I have, is that Chad claims to have expertise and science backing his message -- I don't see it.

[dudacek]

40 minutes ago, Curt said:

 

Didn’t Krueger state that this was happening during the season?  Didn’t he matter of factly state that he wanted defense to be a focus for Dahlin and that it would reduce is offensive production?

Yes.

13 minutes ago, SabresFanInRochester said:

I don't like his stuff. I think he gets too emotional about his narrative and will find data that seems to reflect his position; I think he cherry picks. When you start finding data to support your narrative, instead of using data to form a hypothesis, it makes for a weak conclusion.

If I'm not mistaken, Chad evaluated Montour's stats while with Anaheim and he signed off on liking the trade. Now, the stats don't look so good so it's suddenly not the player, but the system. Yet with Ristolainen, it's not the system, it's player because Risto's numbers don't look good. I am not a fan of analytics for this reason. And I am not a fan of the Chad.

I think you will find that people like him: Because the Sabres are struggling, his narrative is that the team needs to be completely ripped down, so people who are in that camp will love him. But Joe Schmo who doesn't run analytics but knows hockey feels the same way -- the team is in a slump and changes must happen. The difference, and the issue I have, is that Chad claims to have expertise and science backing his message -- I don't see it.

You guys are making a pretty good case, IMO.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yes.

You guys are making a pretty good case, IMO.

Case for what? 

Any time someone says analytics is bad or they aren't a fan of it because of some vague reason, I think it does the opposite of make a case. It dismisses another form of analysis and typically it is because that other form is not understood. 

[dudacek]

25 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Case for what? 

Any time someone says analytics is bad or they aren't a fan of it because of some vague reason, I think it does the opposite of make a case. It dismisses another form of analysis and typically it is because that other form is not understood. 

For me the discussion has not been about “analytics,” it’s been about Chad.

[LGR4GM]

Ah, his twitter is certainly something and I think he reaches the wrong conclusion here. 

[Thorny]

On 4/29/2020 at 12:45 PM, LGR4GM said:

Meat. 

I now have a better understanding for why Dahlin was so bad for chunks of the year. Any coach telling Dahlin to play dump and chase should be fired. 

"In Corey’s data, Dahlin had a carry-in per 60 minutes rate of 3.5 and a carry-in percentage of 55% in his rookie year. This season, the carry-in rate per 60 minutes dropped to 2.56 and a carry-in percentage of 34%."

Fire the entire coaching staff, fire the gm, fire the scouting staff, and start the ***** over. This team is a nightmare and I will be spending 0 dollars on them until they stop being completely clueless. 

How the hell could Botterill hire a coach without confirming he wanted to use the roster in the same way? Is this the Defense Against the Dark Arts position at Hogwarts where there's only one willing candidate every year for a jinxed job? How could one GM be THIS bad? SERIOUS QUESTION

Edited April 30, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorny]

On 4/30/2020 at 1:03 PM, dudacek said:

For me the discussion has not been about “analytics,” it’s been about Chad.

He's been pretty darn reliable with his "insider" info

Edited May 2, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, Thorny said:

He's been pretty darn reliable with his "insider* info

I’m pretty confident he has an inside connection.

What I’m seeing cause to question is his ability to process and distribute what he learns agenda-free.

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m pretty confident he has an inside connection.

What I’m seeing cause to question is his ability to process and distribute what he learns agenda-free.

A universal struggle. 

[Wyldnwoody44]

Analytics and metrics have done more harm for the world than good, especially in sports. It takes away the joy from watching the game. I want to see the game and go "man that player sucks or is good" and leave it at that, I don't care what his XGF or corsi or what his Thursday afternoon stretching routine is. The fact we've been so bad, I think fuels the fire of why therefore increasing our want to know more of why. It's as simple as we don't have good enough players, not about analytics.