Jbot Do Something Already 3 - deadline edition

[woods-racer]

The exact same plan you’d have, minus not caring about the potential swing of a few % points. There’s absolutely no guarantee that whoever is picked 4th has a better career than the guy getting picked 5. It’s a toss up.

 

If Botterill has the ability to select good players, we are fine wherever we pick, it’s going to be high. If he doesn’t have that ability, we are screwed either way.

 

I think it was Liger that had a break down of the draft and the % of impact by draft position.

 

Draftees 2-10 have the same odds of having an impact in the NHL.

 

11-20 There's a small drop. 

 

There's a steep and continuous drop of the chances of making it after that.

 

The team that has the most success is the team with the greatest number of chances. It's why GMs are getting so frugal on trading away their draft positions. 

Edited February 19, 2018 by skogslopp

[LGR4GM]

Don’t just slam doors do something. Send someone packing. Waive a crappy vet. Do something!

 

Earlier in the year he demoted Moulson and acquired Wilson and the team was better for it. The deadline is still a few weeks away, but something needs to be done now. While appeasing the fan base isn’t a reason to do something, sending a message to the lockeroom is.

 

First step: trade Lehner or Kane now.

2nd step: waive now Nolan, Josefson and or Gorges.

The deadline is in 7 days. Feb 26th at 3pm. 

I think it was Liger that had a break down of the draft and the % of impact by draft position.

 

Draftees 2-10 have the same odds of having an impact in the NHL.

 

11-20 There's a small drop. 

 

There's a steep and continuous drop of the chances of making it after that.

 

The team that has the most success is the team with the greatest number of chances. It's why GMs are getting so frugal on trading away their draft positions. 

Idk if it was me but basically on average, 1 is good, 2-4 is good, 5-11 or so you should get a player, 12-21 or so you should be fine. 22-31 it starts to get iffy. 32-62 is basically a 50/50 shot. I would say that 32-45 is more likely than 46-62. After that... you need a solid scouting department. 

 

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

Edited February 19, 2018 by SkuggaLiger

[woods-racer]

The deadline is in 7 days. Feb 26th at 3pm. 

Idk if it was me but basically on average, 1 is good, 2-4 is good, 5-11 or so you should get a player, 12-21 or so you should be fine. 22-31 it starts to get iffy. 32-62 is basically a 50/50 shot. I would say that 32-45 is more likely than 46-62. After that... you need a solid scouting department. 

 

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

 

That's it.

 

I generalized more from memory. That's the one you had up before and had a nice post on.

[Crusader1969]

The exact same plan you’d have, minus not caring about the potential swing of a few % points. There’s absolutely no guarantee that whoever is picked 4th has a better career than the guy getting picked 5. It’s a toss up.

If Botterill has the ability to select good players, we are fine wherever we pick, it’s going to be high. If he doesn’t have that ability, we are screwed either way.

Every draft is different. In 2016 and 2015 there were 2 can't miss elite prospects who you knew going into it would be top line players. This year, lucky enough, there are 4 top line players. If there were only 2 I wouldn't be so adamant about finishing last.

[7+6=13]

Actually to win you need to build a deep and winning prospect pool and minor league system.  TM traded our depth away and we haven't developed enough players to build a deep winning team.  

 

The rebuild started officially with the 2013 draft.

So far from rebuild picks we have added Jack, Sam and Risto in the NHL

In Roch we have Baptiste, Bailey, Cornel, Malone and Guhle with only Guhle looking like an impact player.

 

That isn't how you build a winning organization.

 

What Jbot needs to do now is rebuild the pipeline.  That means getting near ready prospects in these deadline trades instead of draft picks.  We need more D depth, center depth for the 3rd and 4th lines and 2-4 LWs while we wait for guys like Mittelstadt, Asplund, Davidsson, Nylander and Olofsson to develop.  It would also be really helpful if we get Borgen under contract and Pu out develops his draft status and becomes at top 6 forward.

 

Personally I think Jbot window is 2 more seasons.  By then we need to be a sure fire playoff team comprised of primarily former Sabres prospects.  That mission starts now.  Continue to undue TM's mistakes.    

 

I really like this post and agree.  Depth is good of course.  We need one more elite offensive player to emerge and at least 2 very good players (50-60 points) to come out of the pipeline or from a Kane trade.  At this point that elite player centers around Mittelstadt and the 2 very good players is a hope and a prayer.  

 

We need a great defensive player and two solid ones.  I don't see a great defensive player so I'm hoping he comes from this years draft and I'm counting on Guhle being solid and another one coming via free agency somehow.  

 

Ullmark is such an important piece too.  

 

I think you're right about the 2 season window for JBot but that's from now.  This draft and the Kane trade are critical to our future.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

The Ullmark call up faked everyone out. Jbot is such a tease. I’m sorry to say that despite my praying something changes now, Jbot isn’t doing anything until the actual deadline. Lehner’s injury may now take him off the trade list. Oops.

 

Jbot better pray Kane doesn’t go day to day.

Edited February 19, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Crusader1969]

Would you be upset if they put Kane in the press Box?

[apuszczalowski]

All one needs to do is look at the New England Patriots as an example. Always draft near last, build a core of solid players, and then supplement with established young talent. 

 

If you assume that 95-99% of drafted players are a crapshoot to play well in the NHL, they why not trade Kane for existing prospects with a year or couple years under their belt instead of looking at a draft choice ?  

 

Botterill needs to establish the core and keep it the same as long as possible. IMO, you can't roll 10-12 players every year and expect the team to win the next season. Also, we need to stop signing guys like Pommers/Gorges at the tail end of their career.  Sure the team needs leadership, but the leadership doesn't have to be at the end of their career. 

Well when the Sabres get one of the best players of all time to go along with one of the best coaches (atleast in many opinions) then it makes it very easy to do as you say.

 

As for the leadership, you can't just go and find young leaders, those guys just aren't available. And most look at leadership as something gained through experience. They aren't bad because they have Pomminstein, they are bad because they don't have better talent ahead of him to push him to a lower role........

[LGR4GM]

Would you be upset if they put Kane in the press Box?

To be honest, yes I would bench Kane this week. 

[apuszczalowski]

Actually to win you need to build a deep and winning prospect pool and minor league system.  TM traded our depth away and we haven't developed enough players to build a deep winning team.  

 

The rebuild started officially with the 2013 draft.

So far from rebuild picks we have added Jack, Sam and Risto in the NHL

In Roch we have Baptiste, Bailey, Cornel, Malone and Guhle with only Guhle looking like an impact player.

 

That isn't how you build a winning organization.

 

What Jbot needs to do now is rebuild the pipeline.  That means getting near ready prospects in these deadline trades instead of draft picks.  We need more D depth, center depth for the 3rd and 4th lines and 2-4 LWs while we wait for guys like Mittelstadt, Asplund, Davidsson, Nylander and Olofsson to develop.  It would also be really helpful if we get Borgen under contract and Pu out develops his draft status and becomes at top 6 forward.

 

Personally I think Jbot window is 2 more seasons.  By then we need to be a sure fire playoff team comprised of primarily former Sabres prospects.  That mission starts now.  Continue to undue TM's mistakes.    

What players did he trade away that weakened the depth?

How many of those players have been impacts on their new team? The Avs trade brought them a good player, the Winnepeg trade brought in a good player but he probably traded more then he should have for it.

 

The problem was they didn't draft well with what they had and haven't made any really good signings to help out either

 

The Oilers have had a bunch of top 5 picks, that didn't help much. Arizona has had a bunch of top picks, still basement dwellers. Picks, no matter where they are aren't guarantees for any success, whats needed is  having someone who can find and get players where ever they pick

I do think one of the biggest mistakes made by the previous GMs is their lack of interest in the Goaltending position. Maybe its because they have been lucky enough to have franchise goalies in Hasek and then Miller. Right now, outside of Ullmark, do they really have a decent goalie prospect in the pipeline? Goalies can make or break a team, and they can also look great one year and average the next. Its never a bad thing to have a few good ones in line.

[LGR4GM]

What players did he trade away that weakened the depth?

How many of those players have been impacts on their new team? The Avs trade brought them a good player, the Winnepeg trade brought in a good player but he probably traded more then he should have for it.

 

The problem was they didn't draft well with what they had and haven't made any really good signings to help out either

 

The Oilers have had a bunch of top 5 picks, that didn't help much. Arizona has had a bunch of top picks, still basement dwellers. Picks, no matter where they are aren't guarantees for any success, whats needed is  having someone who can find and get players where ever they pick

I do think one of the biggest mistakes made by the previous GMs is their lack of interest in the Goaltending position. Maybe its because they have been lucky enough to have franchise goalies in Hasek and then Miller. Right now, outside of Ullmark, do they really have a decent goalie prospect in the pipeline? Goalies can make or break a team, and they can also look great one year and average the next. Its never a bad thing to have a few good ones in line.

Ukko Pekka Lukkinenenenenenenen is a decent prospect but you should draft a GT almost every year. Murray didn't draft GT or Defenders with high picks at all really.

[matter2003]

We didn't sign Pommers - we traded to get rid of Ennis with the opportunity to also get a defenseman in Scandella.   You want Ennis back?

 

And somehow those players contribute to a winning team...just like Stafford and Myers are with their teams...and Zadorov..

 

Basically all these players we said are lazy and are reasons we are losing and need to get rid of them are somehow succeeding on other teams?  

 

I guess maybe we need to take a deeper look at what's wrong here

[Gramps]

Well when the Sabres get one of the best players of all time to go along with one of the best coaches (atleast in many opinions) then it makes it very easy to do as you say.

 

As for the leadership, you can't just go and find young leaders, those guys just aren't available. And most look at leadership as something gained through experience. They aren't bad because they have Pomminstein, they are bad because they don't have better talent ahead of him to push him to a lower role........

 

Young leadership to me is under 26-27 with 5-7 years in the league. 

 

Pominville will go the way of Moulson next year - healthy scratches and a possible demotion at some point.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Would you be upset if they put Kane in the press Box?

Yes. Play to win and he is one of the Sabres' best players.

[GASabresIUFAN]

What players did he trade away that weakened the depth?

How many of those players have been impacts on their new team? The Avs trade brought them a good player, the Winnepeg trade brought in a good player but he probably traded more then he should have for it.

 

The problem was they didn't draft well with what they had and haven't made any really good signings to help out either

 

The Oilers have had a bunch of top 5 picks, that didn't help much. Arizona has had a bunch of top picks, still basement dwellers. Picks, no matter where they are aren't guarantees for any success, whats needed is  having someone who can find and get players where ever they pick

I do think one of the biggest mistakes made by the previous GMs is their lack of interest in the Goaltending position. Maybe its because they have been lucky enough to have franchise goalies in Hasek and then Miller. Right now, outside of Ullmark, do they really have a decent goalie prospect in the pipeline? Goalies can make or break a team, and they can also look great one year and average the next. Its never a bad thing to have a few good ones in line.

Goaltending?  Who are Ullmark, Johansson and Pekke?

 

TM did trade away our depth in addition to not drafting defensemen in the first 2 rounds beside Guhle.  He traded away 2 2015 first rd picks, Compher, Lemieux, Zadarov, McNabb, Pysyk, and Armia.  You can say he got us ROR, Kane, Lehner, Kulikov and Bogo, to replace them, but none of these players with maybe the exception of ROR has made us better.  I'd much rather have the young depth back and have built this the right way.   

[Sabre fan]

Should be able to trade Gorges for a late pick rather than waiving him, if the rumours are true.

 

I’m all for upgrading the roster where possible, its hugely necessary. I don’t see much benefit however in the outright waiving of guys like Nolan and Josefson who appear to at least be trying hard.

 

I think I’m at the point where I believe Lehner’s play and attitude is having a negative affect on the psyche of the team, so I have no problem with him getting moved ASAP.

 

Botterill is going to look like ice-in-his-veins genius, or a dope, regarding the Kane situation. If he’s holding to his high ask, gambling on the injury/poor play front, and another GM blinks and pays his ask or even somewhat close to, full props to him.

 

If he held out all this time allowing Kane to go through the motions out there, and Kane gets hurt before the deadline, or the return is minimal, he should have bit the bullet and moved him sooner instead of facilitating this long-running distraction.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if Botterill is feeling some pressure at this point. Attendance is way down, the Sabres are the worst team in the NHL or might soon be, again, and the one positive people pointed to, the Amerks, have now lost more games than they have won this season.

 

It’s going too be tough to make significant changes around the deadline, at this time of year, but hopefully he makes at least a few smaller adjustments, so the Sabres have a chance to finish the season strong, perhaps signifying winds of change where next season is concerned.

Am I looking at the wrong standings? I see the Amerks at 26 wins, 13 losses and 8 OTL for 66 point sin 55 games and seemingly playing very good. I think we can also look at the fact that the Sabres lead the league in one-goal losses. I so however get pissed with how they seemingly don't show up for one oro two perio9ds like against LA Saturday...then turn it on when it's too late

[Drunkard]

Am I looking at the wrong standings? I see the Amerks at 26 wins, 13 losses and 8 OTL for 66 point sin 55 games and seemingly playing very good. I think we can also look at the fact that the Sabres lead the league in one-goal losses. I so however get pissed with how they seemingly don't show up for one oro two perio9ds like against LA Saturday...then turn it on when it's too late

They break out shootout losses from regular OT losses and the have 6 of those for a total of 26 wins and 27 losses in their 53 games.

http://www.amerks.com/standings

[7+6=13]

And somehow those players contribute to a winning team...just like Stafford and Myers are with their teams...and Zadorov..

 

Basically all these players we said are lazy and are reasons we are losing and need to get rid of them are somehow succeeding on other teams?  

 

I guess maybe we need to take a deeper look at what's wrong here

 

Different argument than what I was responding to.  They're not contributing much and they're all pretty low end hockey players.  I hope you'll agree that these aren't the type of players that elevate teams and you can't pay players like Ennis and Pominville significant money to contribute 20-25 points for a season.  Every team needs them by attrition.  The problem with the Sabres over the years we've had far too many of these contribution type players, playing in roles where excellent players are needed and we've often payed them as such.  It will stop as the purge is nearly there.  We have an opportunity to start over which is fortunate.  

 

I'm looking forward to the day when we do have a player like Stafford that has 12 points and is 17th on the club.  He'd be tied for 10th on the Sabres.  That simply can't be the case anymore.  We're desperate for high end talent.  

[Doohickie]

Don’t just slam doors do something. Send someone packing. Waive a crappy vet. Do something!

 

Earlier in the year he demoted Moulson and acquired Wilson and the team was better for it. The deadline is still a few weeks away, but something needs to be done now. While appeasing the fan base isn’t a reason to do something, sending a message to the lockeroom is.

 

First step: trade Lehner or Kane now.

2nd step: waive now Nolan, Josefson and or Gorges.

 

Please explain your reasoning for this statement.  It's not intuitively obvious.

[MattPie]

They break out shootout losses from regular OT losses and the have 6 of those for a total of 26 wins and 27 losses in their 53 games.

http://www.amerks.com/standings

 

Probably easier to just say: 53 games, 26 wins. That being said, They're in a pack of teams in the East where 3rd through 7th are 66 or 65 points (with some odd ordering, I assume based on divisions), and better than all but the Moose in the West. It's hardly a terrible record. I suspect the people talking about "woe is me, more losses than wins" are looking for something to be upset about. Their point % is fine, as is their place in the standings.

 

Or, "The Amerks have the second-fewest Regulation losses in the AHL with 13. That's one behind Toronto with 12. The team knows how to compete and get points."

Edited February 19, 2018 by MattiPaj

[LTS]

I think any evaluations should have been completed by Thanksgiving or first part of December. The question is not who the core players are as much as how do we get better depth wise. That has to be drafting well and development. Unfortunately that usually takes time and good scouting and development coaching. Trades and free agency are not good plans in my opinion.

 

Evaluations on players are difficult when they are all adapting to a new system as well.  Look at the difference in the Sabres early on and then later into December until now.  Guys who looked good are not showing as well and guys who looked bad are showing better.  Reinhart is a perfect example of improving where as Pominville and Kane are great examples of falling back.

 

Trades work when you can acquire a player who doesn't work in one environment but will work in another.  The same is true with free agency but because that also has salary negotiations tied to it the outcomes usually don't pay.

 

Goaltending?  Who are Ullmark, Johansson and Pekke?

 

TM did trade away our depth in addition to not drafting defensemen in the first 2 rounds beside Guhle.  He traded away 2 2015 first rd picks, Compher, Lemieux, Zadarov, McNabb, Pysyk, and Armia.  You can say he got us ROR, Kane, Lehner, Kulikov and Bogo, to replace them, but none of these players with maybe the exception of ROR has made us better.  I'd much rather have the young depth back and have built this the right way.   

 

So, if you have all those other players back and the team still performs the same what do you do?  I don't find it realistic to believe that those players are going to improve this team.  Meanwhile a player like Falk and Nelson are showing every bit as well as Zadarov and McNabb and no one is giving credit for acquiring those players.

 

We all want the team to be better but desperation isn't the answer.

 

The phrase just do something is pure desperation.  Just do something, anything.  Trade Eichel... hell waive him.  It's doing something, right?  I am sure you mean "do something less obviously ignorant that would help the team".  The thing is, the GMs making the moves legitimately believe what they are doing will help the team, even if the "help" is not felt for a few years.

 

I'd like to think that if Botterill had a move to make that would help the team that he would make it.  Just like every GM who is hired to do the job.  I haven't seen any moves made where the Sabres could or should have been in on the trade.  Waiving players goes 100% against his desire to have a younger group of players play together in the AHL and experience playoffs, etc.  Just because the Amerks are struggling now does not mean that you immediately throw the whole plan away and just waive people and move the younger players up to the Sabres.

[PerreaultForever]

I think creating a winning attitude and a work ethic in Rochester is really really important but we also have to recognize that a lot of those AHL guys are not NHL players. Not that many guys down there look like potential NHL stars. 

 

I'm pretty sure Botterill IS trying to do something but when the players that might be traded play like crap when scouts/GMs are looking at them it doesn't make it easy. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Please explain your reasoning for this statement.  It's not intuitively obvious.

1) As we saw with Lehner today, injuries happen and the longer you wait to pull the trigger the odds increase of a key trade piece (Kane) getting injured.  If this happens, Kane walks for nothing and you have hurt the organization.

2) There are moments in a season when the pressure is going to burst the water heater. We had one earlier when the team was crapping out. Jbot read the situation correctly and dumped Moulson and acquired Wilson.  I think we are at a similar moment again now.  As much as I want a top 4 pick, the team this season has alienated the fans in Buffalo.  That is a singular accomplishment.   The team desperately needs to show some improvement before the off-season to give the fans and organization hope. Jbot needs to do something to create some hope for the fans asap and illustrate that he can manage a club.  The first step toward both of these goals is making a move now. Release some of the pressure.  It doesn't have to be Kane, but it should be something.  Maybe move Pouliot or Gorges or Larsson.  Show us, the team and the Pegulas you aren't sitting on your hands.   

[Thorny]

Every draft is different. In 2016 and 2015 there were 2 can't miss elite prospects who you knew going into it would be top line players. This year, lucky enough, there are 4 top line players. If there were only 2 I wouldn't be so adamant about finishing last.

But it’s not set in stone. A guy like Boqvist for example could end up better than, say, Tkachuk. Who knows. There’s nothing actually concrete saying with certainty there’s a top 4 destined to have better careers than everyone else in the draft.

 

Probably easier to just say: 53 games, 26 wins. That being said, They're in a pack of teams in the East where 3rd through 7th are 66 or 65 points (with some odd ordering, I assume based on divisions), and better than all but the Moose in the West. It's hardly a terrible record. I suspect the people talking about "woe is me, more losses than wins" are looking for something to be upset about. Their point % is fine, as is their place in the standings.

 

Or, "The Amerks have the second-fewest Regulation losses in the AHL with 13. That's one behind Toronto with 12. The team knows how to compete and get points."

Not really.

 

I don’t think anyone is saying it’s terrible. It’s just that they’ve been bad recently, their record is now good but not great, and “good playoff experience for the farm team” was a common refrain around here and who knows how that unfolds at this point.

 

To think their season as it currently stands is an indication of future success for the Sabres would be a stretch, and I keep seeing that. Certainly a promising start, and something to build on.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Thorny

[apuszczalowski]

Shake ups are needed, badly with this team, but maybe not so much by Botterill but by Housley....

 

If I was him, I would move the 4th line up to the 1st line and give them the bulk of the ice time over the 1st line for a game or 2.

If these guys get embarassed getting less ice time then a Nolan or Larson or bring up some Amerks, I would tell them that I (Housley) don't like being embarrassed by them giving little effort

If it works, great, if it doesn't work, you still lose and you still look like crap, but atleast you tried. Housley really has nothing to lose at this point

 

If all else fails, put Sabretooth in net, from what I saw of some vide during the first intermission, he can't be any worse then Lehner in OT/SO...............