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Off Season Game Plan


Crusader1969

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Eichel

Reinhart

ROR

Kane

Okposo

Rodrigues

Girgensons

Baptiste

Mittelstadt

Nylander

Wilson

 

were all clearly better at the ins and outs of hockey, the stuff that happens between goals, the stuff that makes up 95% of the game, than Jason. If any one of these guys got Jason's time with Jack they'd produce too, and more importantly, they'd make a more cohesive unit with Jack and do a far, far better job of maximizing Jack's talent and limiting how much his line gets hindered. Kane is gone, but Pominville isonly getting older, and it should be EASY to make sure he isn't in the 12 man lineup. It needs to happen.

 

It's only been 16 hours since the season ended, we cannot already be slipping into "well, it's okay to have Pominville in a prominent role, I mean he had 34 points". The season is too soon. He's ###### useless, and giving meaningful ice time to players who are ###### useless despite Jack's abilities is WHY we're here where we are right now. It's the kind of thing we need to break the cycle on this offseason, and not perpetuate.

 

We did the same ###### thing with Moulson last year, who had 34 points and was a zombie the entire year, and he gave us 0 points in 14 games, helping us to one of the worst starts in franchise history.

 

Break the cycle Botterill. We are not tanking. replacement level players with NHL floors are not hard to come by. It is not acceptable to start this season with a healthy roster containing Pominville anywhere.

I'm not so sure Wilson and Baptiste are any better than Pomminstein
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I think top 6 is something JBots will work with unless an unbelievable offer is made for Okposo, ROR, or Reinhart.

 

I would go with 

 

Mittelstadt, Eichel, Okposo

Nylander, ROR, Reinhart

 

I think Mittelstadt can be our version of Barzal or Marner. Play second fiddle to Eichel and has the speed and talent to keep up.  I really think he looked comfortable in his 6 game trial. Next year he should have the confidence to take even more chances offensively.

 

Besides the obvious of goaltending and finding another top three defenseman, the biggest issue to me the past three years has been the lack of scoring by our third and fourth lines. They don't need to be 20 goal scorers but they must have the ability to score 10 goals each and outscore the opponents third and fourth lines.

 

Off season additions

 

Sign UFA's

David Perron 3 years $4 million a year

Trade Larsson to Pittsburg for rights to Riley Sheehan and sign Riley Sheehan 4 years for $3 million a year.  He becomes our third line center. Good for face offs (54%,) and can get you between 10-15 goals. 

 

 

Line 3

 

Perron, Sheehan, Pommer.   (If they want Mittelstadt to play center, then you can move Perron to top line and have Sheehan move to LW)

 

Line 4

 

Baptiste, ERod, Bailey

 

I could live with this as the opening day offensive lines

 

Mittelstadt- Eichel- Okposo

Nylander- ROR- Reinhart

Perron- Sheehan- Pommer

Baptiste- ERod- Bailey

 

I give Fasching one more year in Rochester and in 2019 he moves into top line and slide Okposo to fill in Pommer on third line.

 

 

On defense

 

Draft Rasmus Dahlin

 

Three way trade with Arizona and Colorado-

 

We trade Guhle and Bogo to Arizona (Arizona gets vet and prospect for player who becomes an UFA after next season)

Arizona trades Oliver Ekman-Larson to Colorado (OEL and Barrie are very similar players)

Colorado trades Barrie to Buffalo (Buffalo gets a veteran top RD and can slide Risto to second pairing)

 

Sign Sustr from Tampa- 2 years $2 million or Luke Schenn for 2 years at $1.75 million or keep Casey Nelson 2 years at $1.5 million a year

Sign Falk to one year $700k

 

Buffalo defense

 

Scandella- Barrie

Dahlin- Risto

McCabe- Sustr/Schenn/Nelson

 

Extras-

Falk, Beaulieu

 

Goalies-

 

Sign Raanta for 2 years $4million

 

Raanta

Ullmark

I forgot Girgensons- could be filler for any line

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Eichel

Reinhart

ROR

Kane

Okposo

Rodrigues

Girgensons

Baptiste

Mittelstadt

Nylander

Wilson

 

were all clearly better at the ins and outs of hockey, the stuff that happens between goals, the stuff that makes up 95% of the game, than Jason. If any one of these guys got Jason's time with Jack they'd produce too, and more importantly, they'd make a more cohesive unit with Jack and do a far, far better job of maximizing Jack's talent and limiting how much his line gets hindered. Kane is gone, but Pominville isonly getting older, and it should be EASY to make sure he isn't in the 12 man lineup. It needs to happen. 

It's only been 16 hours since the season ended, we cannot already be slipping into "well, it's okay to have Pominville in a prominent role, I mean he had 34 points". The season is too soon. He's ###### useless, and giving meaningful ice time to players who are ###### useless despite Jack's abilities is WHY we're here where we are right now. It's the kind of thing we need to break the cycle on this offseason, and not perpetuate. 

We did the same ###### thing with Moulson last year, who had 34 points and was a zombie the entire year, and he gave us 0 points in 14 games, helping us to one of the worst starts in franchise history. 

Break the cycle Botterill. We are not tanking. replacement level players with NHL floors are not hard to come by. It is not acceptable to start this season with a healthy roster containing Pominville anywhere.

I love this take, but I would be pleasantly surprised if the Sabres agree.

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I think top 6 is something JBots will work with unless an unbelievable offer is made for Okposo, ROR, or Reinhart.

 

I would go with

 

Mittelstadt, Eichel, Okposo

Nylander, ROR, Reinhart

 

I think Mittelstadt can be our version of Barzal or Marner. Play second fiddle to Eichel and has the speed and talent to keep up. I really think he looked comfortable in his 6 game trial. Next year he should have the confidence to take even more chances offensively.

 

Besides the obvious of goaltending and finding another top three defenseman, the biggest issue to me the past three years has been the lack of scoring by our third and fourth lines. They don't need to be 20 goal scorers but they must have the ability to score 10 goals each and outscore the opponents third and fourth lines.

 

Off season additions

 

Sign UFA's

David Perron 3 years $4 million a year

Trade Larsson to Pittsburg for rights to Riley Sheehan and sign Riley Sheehan 4 years for $3 million a year. He becomes our third line center. Good for face offs (54%,) and can get you between 10-15 goals.

 

 

Line 3

 

Perron, Sheehan, Pommer. (If they want Mittelstadt to play center, then you can move Perron to top line and have Sheehan move to LW)

 

Line 4

 

Baptiste, ERod, Bailey

 

I could live with this as the opening day offensive lines

 

Mittelstadt- Eichel- Okposo

Nylander- ROR- Reinhart

Perron- Sheehan- Pommer

Baptiste- ERod- Bailey

 

I give Fasching one more year in Rochester and in 2019 he moves into top line and slide Okposo to fill in Pommer on third line.

 

 

On defense

 

Draft Rasmus Dahlin

 

Three way trade with Arizona and Colorado-

 

We trade Guhle and Bogo to Arizona (Arizona gets vet and prospect for player who becomes an UFA after next season)

Arizona trades Oliver Ekman-Larson to Colorado (OEL and Barrie are very similar players)

Colorado trades Barrie to Buffalo (Buffalo gets a veteran top RD and can slide Risto to second pairing)

 

Sign Sustr from Tampa- 2 years $2 million or Luke Schenn for 2 years at $1.75 million or keep Casey Nelson 2 years at $1.5 million a year

Sign Falk to one year $700k

 

Buffalo defense

 

Scandella- Barrie

Dahlin- Risto

McCabe- Sustr/Schenn/Nelson

 

Extras-

Falk, Beaulieu

 

Goalies-

 

Sign Raanta for 2 years $4million

 

Raanta

Ullmark

I like all of this. I have a man crush on Barrie, but no way is COL trading him. He lead all defensemen in PPG this season... a monster season after signing a nice bridge type deal (that he deserves btw, plus minus be damned! haha). Prototypical PP QB, ha 30 points on the power play... which allows me to overlook his negative PM.

 

I'd trade Reinhart and Nylander for him straight up.... but COL won't even consider it.

 

You're spot on about the bottom 6. I said it last off-season, this team won't improve until they fix the bottom 6. They need players who can chip offensively and know how to defend. The current group are castaway top 6 players who can't defend worth and we're launched from other teams because they failed to live up to expectations offensively.

 

Again, thus was a massive blunder by JBOTs and Housley to just wipe the slate clean and ignore the hours of film on these guys. Wasted season is the result.

Edited by pi2000
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The goal is to have neither on Jack’s line next season. But Girgensons when not with Jack was basically useless. If Z comes back, it will be in a bottom six role, so we can expect more nothing from him in that role. Also Moulson has 32 pts last year, 18 on the PP. Pommers had 34 this season, but only 7 on the PP.

Pominville spent 45 games in our top six versus Moulson getting half of that last year. 

 

 

From game 16 to game 60, a stretch that saw him lose this role early and play without Jack or ROR for most of the time, he had 3 goals and 4 assists. Sure, he had some fluky muffins squeak through goalies in the last 5 games, while absolutely killing the right side of the ice on Jack's line, and sure, Jack gave him 5 open nets early on. 

 

I'm all for upgrading Zemgus too, don't get me wrong, but neither player does jack offensively away from Jack, but Zemgus at least

a.) skates far faster

b.) penalty kills effectively

c.) increases Jack's production when he's on his line versus decreasing it at ES

d.) has the ability to forecheck and make plays that don't involve goal counts, leading to actual hockey being played (if you don't believe me, rewatch the four periods encapsulating the Sabres @SJ and @LAK before lines got moved, and then the Islanders game where Z was moved back around Christmas time and the ones after)

 

Don't be fooled by Jason. We need to upgrade Zemgus, sure, I'm on board with that, but letting this team ice old slow farts who legitimately can't play anymore next to Eichel has been far more detrimental to this team than a guy who can skate but has no skills largely getting sheltered 4th line minutes. 

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I'm not so sure Wilson and Baptiste are any better than Pomminstein

You need to watch Pominville try to play hockey with Jack, and then watch how good ROR-Reinhart-Wilson is. Wilson is a legitimate cog with hockey smarts and skating to set up plays, open space, and most importantly, effectively cycle the puck to ROR and Reinhart and let them do their thing. 

 

Pominville spends his time being unable to catch up to pucks that Jack puts into open areas, and desperately trying to get back into the play after yet another offensive failure.

 

Find examples of each of the two on the wing in their own zone, the team ready to transition out. Wilson gets the puck to the support. Pominville loses it to the other team, every, single, time. 

I'm just going to stop talking now because I feel like I just finished watching a different season from everyone

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I like all of this. I have a man crush on Barrie, but no way is COL trading him. He lead all defensemen in PPG this season... a monster season after signing a nice bridge type deal (that he deserves btw, plus minus be damned! haha). Prototypical PP QB, ha 30 points on the power play... which allows me to overlook his negative PM.

I'd trade Reinhart and Nylander for him straight up.... but COL won't even consider it.

You're spot on about the bottom 6. I said it last off-season, this team won't improve until they fix the bottom 6. They need players who can chip offensively and know how to defend. The current group are castaway top 6 players who can't defend worth ###### and we're launched from other teams because they failed to live up to expectations offensively.

Again, thus was a massive blunder by JBOTs and Housley to just wipe the slate clean and ignore the hours of film on these guys. Wasted season is the result.

Agree w/ most of the post, except the bolded. Minus Pominville (who on just about any other of the 30 teams would never sniff top line ice) who is too long in the tooth for top 6 duty, (Hey, Housley, you listening?) and Girgensons who was top line on an intentionally bad Sabres team, who are the "castaway top 6" players? Nolan & Larsson have never sniffed top lines in the NHL. Josefsson may have bedn drafted w/ the hope of getting there, but never came close. The other kids have never been there either.

 

Ah, forgot Pouliot. At this stage, he'd fit the description. But that's 1 out of ~9. Which is par for most teams courses.

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You need to watch Pominville try to play hockey with Jack, and then watch how good ROR-Reinhart-Wilson is. Wilson is a legitimate cog with hockey smarts and skating to set up plays, open space, and most importantly, effectively cycle the puck to ROR and Reinhart and let them do their thing. 

Pominville spends his time being unable to catch up to pucks that Jack puts into open areas, and desperately trying to get back into the play after yet another offensive failure.

Find examples of each of the two on the wing in their own zone, the team ready to transition out. Wilson gets the puck to the support. Pominville loses it to the other team, every, single, time. I'm just going to stop talking now because I feel like I just finished watching a different season from everyone

I agree completely with the takes on Pommer and Wilson.

They both understand what to do, but Pommer doesn’t have the feet to do it.

Wilson is a worse finisher, but he’s better at pretty much everything else.

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I think ultimately my disconnect with a lot of people stems from my problems with this team since we finished the tank. 

The results show that Pominville, Moulson last year, Kyle, these guys produced. In the end, production is all that really matters. Goals win games, right? 

I spent all game trashing Kyle against Ottawa and he pulls off an astounding single-handed effort and rips one top corner. But I still didn't feel dumb or any different. This team has been built, and its line-matching strategies have attempted to optimize, this type of production. It's why Jason gets put out with Jack half the season. It's why Moulson played in the top 6 for 1.5 seasons too long, and then still got power play time. In the end, Kyle is scoring, Jason is scoring, Matt is scoring, so the problem lies elsewhere, they say. 

But there's absolutely nothing sustainable about the play Kyle made. There's nothing sustainable about relying on armpit squeakers and Matty Mo somehow getting open in front of the net. You can't base your hockey team on this. You can't, in a larger sense, expect a 25% power play and pin your hopes of winning on playing low-event until your power play gets a chance. Both coaches have done this and both coaches have built lines on this expectation that the points are going to come and that's what matters.

But that drives ME nuts, because again, every 3 games Jason or Kyle gets a goal (not really, it's more like 3 in 4 and then you go 16 without, but I digress) and the rest of the time we watch these two fumble away any attempt at maintaining offensive control in a league where the lack of an ability to do so has you getting clowned by teams that have mastered this and geared every facet of their organization, from drafting to minors to line combinations to line usage, towards making it happen. Mike Babcock's sole goal is to funnel the slot with as many pucks as possible, and go out of his way to acquire/teach guys to not only handle pucks there but to score from there. We've been perfectly fine as an organization with assuming Jack's good for a dazzling rush per game, and ROR can shrug off Doughty to walk in front and roof a backhand every game, both facing the brunt of opposing competition, and then paying little mind to the guys behind them and how they play, assuming they'll be able to produce against what's left, and not making any changes when they can't, riding out the season with Griffiths and Moulsons and Larssons back there. 

This is so backwards from every team that sees success in today's NHL. And the reason I don't mind Wilson as much, even though in a top six role he has less production than Pominville, is because he actively contributes to sustainable hockey for our highest-chemistry duo. 

 

Let me state this clearly because I think it's important - he's the first example in at least 6 years of this organization making the identification that it had a problem before the trade deadline (dearth in the bottom six) and doing something small to address it. He's the first example in at least six years of this organization working with something unconventional (putting him with ROR-23), seeing that it actually maximizes and builds on that chemistry, and then leaving it the alone. He's the first example in the last 6 years of this organization putting sustainable good possession hockey in front of slow respected vets getting ice time they don't deserve and forcing Jack into a role of do-everything-or-we-fail. Wilson is not some great hockey player, who deserves a pay raise and a permanent top six spot. But Sam would agree with me that a huge part of him going point-per-game for literally half of a season now is that he and his buddy can work with their linemate and effectively control the puck in the offensive zone, flex some creativity, and use their energy creating rather than defending and relying on the deep ball. It's so goddamn obvious to me and yet the franchise is going to go out and let Nelson walk (another guy who is no world-beater but who symbolically represents a light at the end of the low-event, low-success model that is our Buffalo Sabres), reason that Bogosian and McCabe are coming back so it's fine, and start Casey and Alex in the AHL not because they're not ready, but because after a summer of rest and skating workouts Kyle and Jason are ready to go and should be a good fit with our franchise, who will spend 82 games picking up 75 points in an "offensive role" (against every team's Crosby again) with depth not good enough to maximize this overarching strategy, instead of 

 

a.) loading up a MacK-Mikko-Landeskog line

b.) building a defensive specialist line out of Calverts/Ellers/that tier UFA, plenty of which are available

c.) anything that isn't the current strategy of murdering our second best offensive player with usage WITHOUT maximizing the offense of our best forward, and instead relying on vet trash to somehow fill the scoring void created by avoiding the first two options.

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Serious question:  is there any reason to think that JBott won't follow the unwritten rules about not signing RFAs?


 

 

Separately -- Flagg -- another excellent post. 

 

I will say (again) though that I think KO is a better possession player than you think he is. 

 

OTOH, I don't think JBott would've brought him in, and I think JBott would prefer not to have him on the roster.  However, no one is going to take him, so JBott and Howie need to figure out how to get the most out of him.

 

I don't think they will feel obligated to keep KO with Eichel or in the top 6 at all though if he's not adding value in that slot.

 

More broadly, I think JBott and Howie want to play the kind of game you are advocating.  They took Pommer as part of the price for getting Scandella -- who is the type of player who plays that type of game -- not because they wanted Pommer to play a big role.  I expect the forward ranks to improve next year and for Pommer's role to diminish.

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Serious question:  is there any reason to think that JBott won't follow the unwritten rules about not signing RFAs?

 

 

Separately -- Flagg -- another excellent post. 

 

I will say (again) though that I think KO is a better possession player than you think he is. 

 

OTOH, I don't think JBott would've brought him in, and I think JBott would prefer not to have him on the roster.  However, no one is going to take him, so JBott and Howie need to figure out how to get the most out of him.

 

I don't think they will feel obligated to keep KO with Eichel or in the top 6 at all though if he's not adding value in that slot.

 

More broadly, I think JBott and Howie want to play the kind of game you are advocating.  They took Pommer as part of the price for getting Scandella -- who is the type of player who plays that type of game -- not because they wanted Pommer to play a big role.  I expect the forward ranks to improve next year and for Pommer's role to diminish.

There are small things they've done that indicate the same to me, so I'm not without hope. 

 

I took the opposite reaction to Phil being happy about the Tampa game. The Tampa game is something that you can grow your franchise to win, and you aren't winning it with more of the stuff I was just ranting about.

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I think ultimately my disconnect with a lot of people stems from my problems with this team since we finished the tank. 

The results show that Pominville, Moulson last year, Kyle, these guys produced. In the end, production is all that really matters. Goals win games, right? 

I spent all game trashing Kyle against Ottawa and he pulls off an astounding single-handed effort and rips one top corner. But I still didn't feel dumb or any different. This team has been built, and its line-matching strategies have attempted to optimize, this type of production. It's why Jason gets put out with Jack half the season. It's why Moulson played in the top 6 for 1.5 seasons too long, and then still got power play time. In the end, Kyle is scoring, Jason is scoring, Matt is scoring, so the problem lies elsewhere, they say. 

But there's absolutely nothing sustainable about the play Kyle made. There's nothing sustainable about relying on armpit squeakers and Matty Mo somehow getting open in front of the net. You can't base your hockey team on this. You can't, in a larger sense, expect a 25% power play and pin your hopes of winning on playing low-event until your power play gets a chance. Both coaches have done this and both coaches have built lines on this expectation that the points are going to come and that's what matters.

 

But that drives ME ###### nuts, because again, every 3 games Jason or Kyle gets a goal (not really, it's more like 3 in 4 and then you go 16 without, but I digress) and the rest of the time we watch these two fumble away any attempt at maintaining offensive control in a league where the lack of an ability to do so has you getting clowned by teams that have mastered this and geared every facet of their organization, from drafting to minors to line combinations to line usage, towards making it happen. Mike Babcock's sole goal is to funnel the slot with as many pucks as possible, and go out of his way to acquire/teach guys to not only handle pucks there but to score from there. We've been perfectly fine as an organization with assuming Jack's good for a dazzling rush per game, and ROR can shrug off Doughty to walk in front and roof a backhand every game, both facing the brunt of opposing competition, and then paying little mind to the guys behind them and how they play, assuming they'll be able to produce against what's left, and not making any changes when they can't, riding out the season with Griffiths and Moulsons and Larssons back there. 

This is so backwards from every team that sees success in today's NHL. And the reason I don't mind Wilson as much, even though in a top six role he has less production than Pominville, is because he actively contributes to sustainable hockey for our highest-chemistry duo. 

 

Let me state this clearly because I think it's important - he's the first example in at least 6 years of this organization making the identification that it had a problem before the trade deadline (dearth in the bottom six) and doing something small to address it. He's the first example in at least six years of this organization working with something unconventional (putting him with ROR-23), seeing that it actually maximizes and builds on that chemistry, and then leaving it the ###### alone. He's the first example in the last 6 years of this organization putting sustainable good possession hockey in front of slow respected vets getting ice time they don't deserve and forcing Jack into a role of do-everything-or-we-fail. Wilson is not some great hockey player, who deserves a pay raise and a permanent top six spot. But Sam would agree with me that a huge part of him going point-per-game for literally half of a season now is that he and his buddy can work with their linemate and effectively control the puck in the offensive zone, flex some creativity, and use their energy creating rather than defending and relying on the deep ball. It's so goddamn obvious to me and yet the franchise is going to go out and let Nelson walk (another guy who is no world-beater but who symbolically represents a light at the end of the low-event, low-success model that is our Buffalo Sabres), reason that Bogosian and McCabe are coming back so it's fine, and start Casey and Alex in the AHL not because they're not ready, but because after a summer of rest and skating workouts Kyle and Jason are ready to go and should be a good fit with our franchise, who will spend 82 games picking up 75 points in an "offensive role" (against every team's Crosby again) with depth not good enough to maximize this overarching strategy, instead of 

 

a.) loading up a MacK-Mikko-Landeskog line

b.) building a defensive specialist line out of Calverts/Ellers/that tier UFA, plenty of which are available

c.) anything that isn't the current strategy of murdering our second best offensive player with usage WITHOUT maximizing the offense of our best forward, and instead relying on vet trash to somehow fill the scoring void created by avoiding the first two options.

Good post.

 

Just a small FYI. Botterill said before the Ottawa game that he expects to be able to re-sign Nelson. (Something to the effect of: you can't say it's certain til it's signed, but he's confident Casey will return. And that though he was pleased w/ their play as the 2nd pairing that he'd like Guhle & Nelson in 3rd pairing roles. There was nothing in THAT conversation about putting Bogosian & McCabe back into the 2nd pairing.)

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Agree w/ most of the post, except the bolded. Minus Pominville (who on just about any other of the 30 teams would never sniff top line ice) who is too long in the tooth for top 6 duty, (Hey, Housley, you listening?) and Girgensons who was top line on an intentionally bad Sabres team, who are the "castaway top 6" players? Nolan & Larsson have never sniffed top lines in the NHL. Josefsson may have bedn drafted w/ the hope of getting there, but never came close. The other kids have never been there either.

 

Ah, forgot Pouliot. At this stage, he'd fit the description. But that's 1 out of ~9. Which is par for most teams courses.

Failed top 6 players...

 

Josefson

Pouliot

Girgensons

 

...all 1st rounders.

 

I'd throw Moulson and Pominville in that group as well, not as failed top sixers but overage players who can't fill a bottom 6 role because of their inability to defend.

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Failed top 6 players...

Josefson

Pouliot

Girgensons

...all 1st rounders.

I'd throw Moulson and Pominville in that group as well, not as failed top sixers but overage players who can't fill a bottom 6 role because of their inability to defend.

So a forward picked in the 1st round that doesn't make Top 6 is a "failed top sixer?" Not the definition I'd've expected. And pretty sure by that definition, most teams' bottom six are heavily stocked w/ them. (And their AHL affiliates are absolutely overflowing w/ them.)

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So a forward picked in the 1st round that doesn't make Top 6 is a "failed top sixer?" Not the definition I'd've expected. And pretty sure by that definition, most teams' bottom six are heavily stocked w/ them. (And their AHL affiliates are absolutely overflowing w/ them.)

It also isn’t what Scott Cullen’s research shows.

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Curious what you guys thought of Nylanders NHL performance this year.

 

I think his biggest problem is between his ears and 2 games in absolute garbage time where he is arguably at his most motivated is a terrible bellweather for what he'll bring over the course of a season.  He needs to be among the top 9 players in training camp or he goes back, and doesn't come up until he's the best performing forward in Rochester.

 

I don't think he'll have it in him.

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I think his biggest problem is between his ears and 2 games in absolute garbage time where he is arguably at his most motivated is a terrible bellweather for what he'll bring over the course of a season.  He needs to be among the top 9 players in training camp or he goes back, and doesn't come up until he's the best performing forward in Rochester.

 

I don't think he'll have it in him.

But what did you think of his performance in those three garbage time games?

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But what did you think of his performance in those three garbage time games?

 

I didn't see last nights game so I can't speak to it.  I don't think he was terribly involved against Tampa.   I think he showed flashes of talent, but he still struck me as a perimeter player.

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