Can This Franchise Be Saved? How Long Will It Take?

[spndnchz]

Hardest working team still needs more talent, especially on D. Hard work only does goes so far.

LA Kings.

[Weave]

:w00t:

 

***

Let's say for a moment that how the Sabres played the last three games is how they play out the season.  Obviously they won't win them all, but if they become that "hardest working team in hockey" again, like they were how many moons ago, is the franchise, in fact, saved?  If the last three games becomes the rest of the season, what changes to the Sabres need going forward?

 

depth, and consistency of effort.

[Robviously]

:w00t:

 

***

Let's say for a moment that how the Sabres played the last three games is how they play out the season.  Obviously they won't win them all, but if they become that "hardest working team in hockey" again, like they were how many moons ago, is the franchise, in fact, saved?  If the last three games becomes the rest of the season, what changes to the Sabres need going forward?

Just keep clearing out the dead weight.  We have a bunch of players I'm basically not excited about ever playing a game for us again with Bogo, Girgensons, Larsson, etc.  I'm excited about Ullmark, Guhle, and Smith joining the team next year.  Maybe Mittelstadt.  Hopefully Borgen.  Maybe one of the other prospects we'll sign and even Nylander if he can get his head straight.  Plus whoever we trade for.

 

We need speed and guys that can pass and move the puck up the ice.  It's amazing how much different the whole team looked when Guhle played that one game.  Or even what Antipin added last night.

[Doohickie]

I hope Antipin continues to improve.  He really made the Reinhart goal yesterday.

[Taro T]

I hope Antipin continues to improve.  He really made the Reinhart goal yesterday.

My hope is simpler than that. Just want him to get the same amount of rope from Housley that Beaulieu got.

 

If his play stays comparable to what it's been, he SHOULD. The $64k Q is whether he actually will.

[Brawndo]

I wish Antipin’s Contract allowed him to be sent to the AHL, maybe Botterill and his agent can come to an agreement for the Amerks Playoff Run. He has missed a lot of time here with his illness and healthy scratches, him being paired with Guhle in The A would be fun to watch.

[Doohickie]

I think he belongs at the NHL level already.  Let him stay; let him play.

[Taro T]

I think he belongs at the NHL level already.  Let him stay; let him play.

Pretty sure the Amerks playoff run will happen when Eichel & crew are golfing. ;)

[GASabresIUFAN]

Every player should be on audition mode and management should be throwing everyone into as many situations as possible, especially the younger guys to see what they can do. This is a 30+ game exhibition season / evaluation camp let’s find out who needs to stay and who needs to go.

 

As to Antipin this means play him good minutes including PP time. What do we have to lose at this point. I’d also be rotating guys up from Rochester as a reward and also to see who they work well with. Let’s do everything possible to get a jump on next year.

[Sabre1974]

Every player should be on audition mode and management should be throwing everyone into as many situations as possible, especially the younger guys to see what they can do. This is a 30+ game exhibition season / evaluation camp let’s find out who needs to stay and who needs to go.

 

As to Antipin this means play him good minutes including PP time. What do we have to lose at this point. I’d also be rotating guys up from Rochester as a reward and also to see who they work well with. Let’s do everything possible to get a jump on next year.

good post

[LGR4GM]

Every player should be on audition mode and management should be throwing everyone into as many situations as possible, especially the younger guys to see what they can do. This is a 30+ game exhibition season / evaluation camp let’s find out who needs to stay and who needs to go.

 

As to Antipin this means play him good minutes including PP time. What do we have to lose at this point. I’d also be rotating guys up from Rochester as a reward and also to see who they work well with. Let’s do everything possible to get a jump on next year.

Agreed. With Baloo and Bogo out I expect 15 min of Antipin every night. He's good and a heads up player.

[PASabreFan]

Yeah, I dunno. We're all a bit bamboozled by three wins in a row. I certainly am — I even fantasized that the game of keepaway was the birth of a glorious new era of Sabres hockey!

 

Should we not weigh October through early January more heavily than anything that happens for the rest of the season?

 

But... with a new coach, what if it's taken half a season for his system and style to kick in? Then you weigh the second half more?

 

A real sticky wicket.

[dudacek]

I put more weight on the back half because it indicates how players responded to the changes the organization was trying to make.

 

Teams aren’t static things and they aren’t entirely defined by the individual talent level of their players.

Individuals can get better at hockey. Teams can get better at systems. Players can discover chemistry with each other.

It’s the job of a coach to make all those things happen.

 

Of course we need new and better players; but also need the ones we have to improve.

Those are the ones you keep.

Edited January 27, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[nfreeman]

Yeah, I dunno. We're all a bit bamboozled by three wins in a row. I certainly am — I even fantasized that the game of keepaway was the birth of a glorious new era of Sabres hockey!

 

Should we not weigh October through early January more heavily than anything that happens for the rest of the season?

 

But... with a new coach, what if it's taken half a season for his system and style to kick in? Then you weigh the second half more?

 

A real sticky wicket.

 

I put more weight on the back half because it indicates how players responded to the changes the organization was trying to make.

 

Teams aren’t static things and they aren’t entirely defined by the individual talent level of their players.

Individuals can get better at hockey. Teams can get better at systems. Players can discover chemistry with each other.

It’s the job of a coach to make all those things happen.

 

Of course we need new and better players; but also need the ones we have to improve.

Those are the ones you keep.

 

I've been pondering this myself.  I certainly want the Sabres to keep winning/playing well, and I want to believe that doing so will be a meaningful indicator of rejoining the respectable part of the NHL, but I feel like we've seen this movie before and it didn't end well.  And I think the reason for that is that when a team is really crappy in the 1st half of the season, their 2nd-half opponents don't bring their A games, so when the crappy team wins some games, it's somewhat of a mirage.  The opponents either look past the previously-crappy team, or they are tanking, or they are fatigued or injured  or otherwise not inclined to dig deep for a game against a lousy team in the dead of winter.   

 

So while I agree that the 2nd half will be useful for determining which guys can handle Howie's system and which guys the team should move on from, I am pretty reluctant to draw confident positive conclusions.

[Doohickie]

Every player should be on audition mode and management should be throwing everyone into as many situations as possible, especially the younger guys to see what they can do. This is a 30+ game exhibition season / evaluation camp let’s find out who needs to stay and who needs to go.

 

As to Antipin this means play him good minutes including PP time. What do we have to lose at this point. I’d also be rotating guys up from Rochester as a reward and also to see who they work well with. Let’s do everything possible to get a jump on next year.

 

I've been calling this an 82-game training camp for months now.  It was the only way I could reckon their terrible play.

 

I am greatly encouraged that one or two players seem to be able to help the team pull it all together.  Antipin is one of them.  I also applaud HCPH for finally stumbling on the best line combinations.  I keep going back to that Reino goal.  Biron covered it during the intermission: 

1. Antipin recognizes he can get clear possession of the puck in the right corner and activates from the point, with speed (busting the defensive coverage).

2. Reino covers Antipin's spot at the point.

3. Antipin carries the puck all the way down to the left corner, then passes to Wilson behind the net.

4. Antipin continues to the left point, McCabe shifts to the right and Reino rejoins the offense in the slot.  This rotation was key.

5. Wilson makes the smart play and jams the puck toward the net where ROR and Reino (just re-entering the slot) await a possible rebound.

6. Reino, with speed, collects the rebound and puts it into the net.

 

We've been harping and harping about how team speed is needed, with Reino being the poster boy for "not fast."  Note that when I said he had "speed", he was not skating at breakneck speed, he was really just coasting to an open position.  Also notice that when Antipin started the play, he also wasn't going that fast, but was a lot faster than the flat-footed Vancouver defenders.

 

Speed isn't about who can skate the fastest; it's more about knowing where to go to make best advantage of your position and getting there at the right time.  That shift was a ballet of interacting skaters, three of whom (Antipin, Reino, McCabe) were moving and two (Wilson, ROR) who were relatively stationary.  The movement in the zone overcame the defensive coverage, allowing the Sabres a wide-open shot at the goal.  This is exactly what Reino is here for:  He saw the play, saw that ROR had the right slot available and cruised right through to the left.  He's reputed to have vision to read plays; he did it perfectly there.

I've been pondering this myself.  I certainly want the Sabres to keep winning/playing well, and I want to believe that doing so will be a meaningful indicator of rejoining the respectable part of the NHL, but I feel like we've seen this movie before and it didn't end well.  And I think the reason for that is that when a team is really crappy in the 1st half of the season, their 2nd-half opponents don't bring their A games, so when the crappy team wins some games, it's somewhat of a mirage.  The opponents either look past the previously-crappy team, or they are tanking, or they are fatigued or injured  or otherwise not inclined to dig deep for a game against a lousy team in the dead of winter.   

 

So while I agree that the 2nd half will be useful for determining which guys can handle Howie's system and which guys the team should move on from, I am pretty reluctant to draw confident positive conclusions.

 

I disagree with you based on one thing:  There is a conscious effort to groom the prospects in the AHL to join the team next year.  Bylsma was a terrible coach for this team, and XGMTM was not managing the player assets of the team wisely. That led the train to come off the rails by the end of last season.  I really think there was an agreement between TPegs, JBot and HCPH that this was to be a development year and that expectations should be correspondingly low.

 

When they won last year, it seemed as often as not that it was in spite of DD's system rather than because of it.  I'm not sure I'm buying into HCPH's system just yet, but it does seem that when the team does well it is because of the system and not just a strong individual effort from Jack or Evander or ROR.  It seems that when the Sabres look strong lately, it's because they look strong as a unit, rather than certain dominant players.

 

So if we're finally seeing the new system, and the additions coming in from the AHL next year are groomed for that system, the Sabre should have a much better start next season.

[dudacek]

Good post ^^^^

I’ll reiterate what I said in the game thread: the O’Reilly line made the Canucks look like they were skating in mud.

Not because they were skating fast, but because they moved the puck so quickly and so smartly.

Edited January 27, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[Weave]

Good post ^^^^

I’ll reiterate what I said in the game thread: the O’Reilly line made the Canucks look like they were skating in mud.

Not because they were skating fast, but because they moved the puck so quickly and so smartly.

 

Team speed was not our problem.  Team pace of play was.

[matter2003]

Yeah, I dunno. We're all a bit bamboozled by three wins in a row. I certainly am — I even fantasized that the game of keepaway was the birth of a glorious new era of Sabres hockey!

 

Should we not weigh October through early January more heavily than anything that happens for the rest of the season?

 

But... with a new coach, what if it's taken half a season for his system and style to kick in? Then you weigh the second half more?

 

A real sticky wicket.

Why would you weigh the beginning of the season more than the end? Especially with a new coach and new systems in place?

 

If anything the end would be more important because they would have had more time to get what the coaches wanted out of them...

January 13, 2018.

 

The point is who is driving the offense. Bailey, Baptiste those guys aren't driving the offense. That means our Rochester pipeline is weak.

Bailey was up with the Sabres for a long time and now is hurt

There are blips of promise, and while some were really down on Botterill's first draft, I thought he took smart moves early and a few bigger risks later on. I liked it. Though in the past I can contradict myself liking some of Murray's draft groups.

How can anyone be down on drafting Middlestadt??

[inkman]

Why would you weigh the beginning of the season more than the end? Especially with a new coach and new systems in place?

 

If anything the end would be more important because they would have had more time to get what the coaches wanted out of them...

 

Bailey was up with the Sabres for a long time and now is hurt

 

How can anyone be down on drafting Middlestadt??

Bailey has been playing for the last two weeks. His skating looks great but he hasn't been producing offense.

[PASabreFan]

Why would you weigh the beginning of the season more than the end? Especially with a new coach and new systems in place?

The games are meaningless now. Do you not suspect that some of these guys are playing better because the pressure is off. There are also factors surrounding opponents that nfreeman pointed out.

[LGR4GM]

The games are meaningless now. Do you not suspect that some of these guys are playing better because the pressure is off. There are also factors surrounding opponents that nfreeman pointed out.

Or Jack is taking control of the room.

[Weave]

The games are meaningless now. Do you not suspect that some of these guys are playing better because the pressure is off. There are also factors surrounding opponents that nfreeman pointed out.

 

Definitely plausible.  Could be a bunch of stuff in play.

 

TBH, I don't care.  I'm starved for entertaining hockey.  This whole, OMG we're gonna screw up our draft position, stuff bothers the hell outta me.  I don't follow the Sabres as if I am watching a real, life fantasy team, trying to create the best roster.  I follow to be entertained.  And it's been a long gat damned time since they've been entertaining.  Let's watch some frickin hockey and let the chips fall where they may.

 

Baby steps.  Be entertained first. 

[PASabreFan]

Definitely plausible.  Could be a bunch of stuff in play.

 

TBH, I don't care.  I'm starved for entertaining hockey.  This whole, OMG we're gonna screw up our draft position, stuff bothers the hell outta me.  I don't follow the Sabres as if I am watching a real, life fantasy team, trying to create the best roster.  I follow to be entertained.  And it's been a long gat damned time since they've been entertaining.  Let's watch some frickin hockey and let the chips fall where they may.

 

Baby steps.  Be entertained first. 

So well said. The fantasy element is huge in sports and a lot of fans think that way. (How much of the NFL's popularity is due to fantasy sports, and gambling of course?) But who am I to judge? We all have our little "sippy cups" to get us through the season. cough SabreSpace cough.

[LGR4GM]

Win. With how low the odds are now, who cares about an extra 5 wins.

 

Unless Botterill sucks we should get a good nhl player at 4 or 5 or 6 or 7. That's the key. Getting a good player wherever you draft.

Edited January 28, 2018 by SkuggaLiger

[nfreeman]

Definitely plausible.  Could be a bunch of stuff in play.

 

TBH, I don't care.  I'm starved for entertaining hockey.  This whole, OMG we're gonna screw up our draft position, stuff bothers the hell outta me.  I don't follow the Sabres as if I am watching a real, life fantasy team, trying to create the best roster.  I follow to be entertained.  And it's been a long gat damned time since they've been entertaining.  Let's watch some frickin hockey and let the chips fall where they may.

 

Baby steps.  Be entertained first. 

 

Yes, yes, a thousand times yes.