Can This Franchise Be Saved? How Long Will It Take?

[PASabreFan]

Has anyone bothered to consider that hockey exists outside of Buffalo? Go study how long it has taken other franchises to go from bottoming out to the playoff bubble. Hint: It ain't five to seven years.

[PASabreFan]

Picked three random Eastern Conference teams.

 

Philly bottomed out in 06-07 (Sabres got Hitch fired) and were in the conference final a year later.

 

New Jersey bottomed out in either 14-15 or 16-17 depending on how you want to look at it. They are 22-11-8 at midseason this year.

 

Florida bottomed out as Terry took over the Sabres, came back to life, bottomed out again in 13-14, came back to life again and are now in a sort of limbo. But it's a limbo we'd go to the airport to greet: they are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and within shouting distance of a playoff spot.

 

Long rebuilds, built on the lie that "there's a right way to do this," are for losers. Murray at least had the right idea. And, from one account I've heard, he probably would still be around if he hadn't slurred the owner's wife.

[WildCard]

Long rebuilds, built on the lie that "there's a right way to do this," are for losers. Murray at least had the right idea. And, from one account I've heard, he probably would still be around if he hadn't slurred the owner's wife.

There is a right way to do this. And it's not even a secret, it's the same damn way in every sport. Draft well, develop patiently and well, and then win. In both leagues (MLB and NHL) the best teams are the ones that draft well with a minor league team, let them develop together, and then call them up. You get cheap, sustainable talent that is a cohesive unit and knows how to win and play together. It works every god damned time, and for some reason people think it's magic.

 

First, I'm not giving them ######.

 

Second, I'm gonna live in the reality that this team needs about 6 forwards going into next year and 3 defenders. So unless Botterill has a magic ###### wand to Harry potter those into existence, it isn't happening.

 

Third, they aren't good enough and I'm not happy or tolerant of it.

I think we can get 4 new forwards and 2 defenders. Now that we know what we're working with, I think next year will be significantly better. And by that I mean we'll be competitive 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Picked three random Eastern Conference teams.

 

Philly bottomed out in 06-07 (Sabres got Hitch fired) and were in the conference final a year later.

 

New Jersey bottomed out in either 14-15 or 16-17 depending on how you want to look at it. They are 22-11-8 at midseason this year.

 

Florida bottomed out as Terry took over the Sabres, came back to life, bottomed out again in 13-14, came back to life again and are now in a sort of limbo. But it's a limbo we'd go to the airport to greet: they are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and within shouting distance of a playoff spot.

 

Long rebuilds, built on the lie that "there's a right way to do this," are for losers. Murray at least had the right idea. And, from one account I've heard, he probably would still be around if he hadn't slurred the owner's wife.

 

None of those teams took the route that the Sabres chose.  

 

The Sabres tanked to be able to draft very good talent, but then Murray wheeled and deeled away a large part of the prospect pool and draft choices in an attempt to speed up the rebuild process.  Both mistakes, IMO.  Seems that Murray may have promised a quick turnaround, or maybe he was ordered to achieve it.  It backfired.

Edited January 13, 2018 by Sabersfläkt i NS

[Thorny]

They can and should be there faster. We have to stop giving this franchise so much rope, because all they do with time is hang themselves. (Hey, that was pretty good.)

Thank-you.

 

Just like Skugga correctly pointed about how teams don't think of lines like they used to, I don't think rebuilds are the same either, especially in the unfair hard salary cap era we are in now.

 

Look how fast the Devils rebounded. And teams also nosedive quick too (Ottawa). Toronto jumped up quick. Yes, there are holes on this roster, but since the cap era produces a product where a lot of teams have a hole here and there, I do think the Sabres can rebound a lot quicker then most would expect.

It at least has to be the expectation. Both internal and external. If they fail they fail, but let’s start aiming for a little bit more.

[Weave]

http://faceoffcircle.ca/2018/01/13/aged-based-look-nhl-teams-use-ahl-affiliates/

 

A really interesting article about how teams use their AHL affiliates.  It is pretty damning of the current state of the Buffalo Sabres.  We are in the bottom 1/3 of the league in prospects who are playing and getting points for their AHL team, and in the top 1/3 of teams that have veterans contributing to their AHL team.  Neither of those stats are healthy for long term results.

 

interesting names at the top of the AHL for contributing prospects.  SJS, CHI, TBL, NYR.  All teams that have sustained a high level of NHL performance for a long period.

 

The Detroit Red Wings of old became a model franchise by routinely filling their cupboards and doing their best to develop prospects. The Chicago Blackhawks, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Los Angeles Kings have dominated the cap era with the same mindset, and while they haven’t found the same frequency of victory, teams like the Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning, and San Jose Sharks have stayed in the conversation by continuously trying to build their next generation.

 

 

 

Rochester and Bakersfield being at the bottom highlights many of the concerns that have been brought up about the Oilers and Sabres. Years of scorched-earth tanking with no attempts at developing support have left them very strong at the top of the organization, but a barren wasteland in terms of depth.

 

 

I think it is good that JB is building a winner, but as some have mentioned here, few of our actual prospects are doing any of the lifting.  The true test of JB will be if he can transition from vets doing the winning to kids doing the winning.

Edited January 14, 2018 by We've

[LGR4GM]

Exactly. This is why we're 3 years away. The pipeline is a show.

[Weave]

Exactly. This is why we're 3 years away. The pipeline is a ###### show.

 

I'm not sure 3 years is long enough.

[Robviously]

Exactly. This is why we're 3 years away. The pipeline is a ###### show.

Well, that or the fact that our best prospects are all in college (Mittelstadt, Borgen, Fitzgerald), Europe (Asplund, Olofsson, Davidsson, UPL), or the OHL (Pu, Budik).  If we had more 2015 draft picks, I'd expect those guys to be in Rochester right now, but we only had 6 picks that year (4 were 4th round or later).  And the 2014 draft was weak (both what we did and in general).

 

The Amerks are winning now on the strength of veterans, but that's definitely helping Ullmark, Guhle, and Smith develop and contribute.  And should help when some of the guys above (hopefully) play in Rochester next season.

I'm not sure 3 years is long enough.

I don't understand this rationale at all.  Yes, the same teams generally suck year after year but you also see teams turn around really quickly when they do a couple things right and maybe get lucky.  In the next 12 months, I'm expecting Botterill to make some bigger moves that completely remake what our franchise looks like.  And then we'll see.

[LGR4GM]

hence the three years. We have to hit in the draft. There should always be guys going into Rochester out of juniors or Europe or college. We need that cycle going.

[Weave]

I don't understand this rationale at all.  Yes, the same teams generally suck year after year but you also see teams turn around really quickly when they do a couple things right and maybe get lucky.  In the next 12 months, I'm expecting Botterill to make some bigger moves that completely remake what our franchise looks like.  And then we'll see.

 

The rationale is that players that make it to FA are generally either way overpriced or nothing more than support players, and that we have to make a hole to fill a hole if we are using trades to bolster the team, which means we are dependent on our pipeline for reinforcements, and our pipeline is only 2 players deep in pros at the moment.

[Rasmus_]

http://faceoffcircle.ca/2018/01/13/aged-based-look-nhl-teams-use-ahl-affiliates/

 

A really interesting article about how teams use their AHL affiliates.  It is pretty damning of the current state of the Buffalo Sabres.  We are in the bottom 1/3 of the league in prospects who are playing and getting points for their AHL team, and in the top 1/3 of teams that have veterans contributing to their AHL team.  Neither of those stats are healthy for long term results.

 

interesting names at the top of the AHL for contributing prospects.  SJS, CHI, TBL, NYR.  All teams that have sustained a high level of NHL performance for a long period.

 

 

 

I think it is good that JB is building a winner, but as some have mentioned here, few of our actual prospects are doing any of the lifting.  The true test of JB will be if he can transition from vets doing the winning to kids doing the winning.

 

How old is this article as Rochester is currently near the top of their division as recently as this week.  They need to scout and go after anyone regardless of size, ethnicity and locale.  If they have skill and potentially available we need to investigate a possibility.  They need to work out a pattern of getting out from the old and cycling in the new.

[LGR4GM]

How old is this article as Rochester is currently near the top of their division as recently as this week. They need to scout and go after anyone regardless of size, ethnicity and locale. If they have skill and potentially available we need to investigate a possibility. They need to work out a pattern of getting out from the old and cycling in the new.

January 13, 2018.

 

The point is who is driving the offense. Bailey, Baptiste those guys aren't driving the offense. That means our Rochester pipeline is weak.

[Rasmus_]

January 13, 2018.

 

The point is who is driving the offense. Bailey, Baptiste those guys aren't driving the offense. That means our Rochester pipeline is weak.

 

Which is true.  Botterill did bring in quite a few established AHL veterans.  Nylander needs to get going and adding Asplund, Pu, and others into the system likely helps the influx of youth.  They're missing a bit of the higher end prospects IMO.  I've never been in love with Baptistes game and at best I think Bailey is a slightly more offensive Foligno with better skating ability.  CJ Smith has done a nice job since being brought in.  So there's at least one bright star with Ullmark and Guhle.

Edited January 14, 2018 by De Listig Ett

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here are top prospects right now

1) Mittelstadt - NHL arrival 2018-19 or 2019-20 at the latest

2) Guhle - NHL arrival 2018-19

3) Ullmark - NHL arrival 2018-19

 

4) Asplund - NHL arrival 2019-20 at the earliest

5) Pu - NHL arrival 2020-21

6) Nylander - NHL arrival 2019-20

7) CJ Smith - NHL arrival 2018-19 (maybe)

8) Borgen - NHL arrival 2019-20

9) Davidsson - NHL arrival 2020-21 at the earliest

10) Johansson - NHL arrival 2020-21

11-13) The RW Trio - NHL arrival never? - maybe two of them make the squad next year, maybe.

 

Does anyone else project as an NHL player?

14) Fitzgerald - possible NHL arrival 2020-21

15) Bryson - possible NHL arrival 2021-22, if at all

16) Budik - possible NHL arrival 2021-22, if at all 

 

So assuming my arrival dates are accurate, how long until we have adequate depth?  2 more years at least.

[LGR4GM]

You forgot Olofsson but that's how I see it. That's if all those guys hit.

[Robviously]

Here are top prospects right now

1) Mittelstadt - NHL arrival 2018-19 or 2019-20 at the latest

2) Guhle - NHL arrival 2018-19

3) Ullmark - NHL arrival 2018-19

 

4) Asplund - NHL arrival 2019-20 at the earliest

5) Pu - NHL arrival 2020-21

6) Nylander - NHL arrival 2019-20

7) CJ Smith - NHL arrival 2018-19 (maybe)

8) Borgen - NHL arrival 2019-20

9) Davidsson - NHL arrival 2020-21 at the earliest

10) Johansson - NHL arrival 2020-21

11-13) The RW Trio - NHL arrival never? - maybe two of them make the squad next year, maybe.

 

Does anyone else project as an NHL player?

14) Fitzgerald - possible NHL arrival 2020-21

15) Bryson - possible NHL arrival 2021-22, if at all

16) Budik - possible NHL arrival 2021-22, if at all 

 

So assuming my arrival dates are accurate, how long until we have adequate depth?  2 more years at least.

That's the list if nothing changes.  The Sabres are going to trade Kane.  And Lehner.  And Poulliot.  Maybe Reinhart.  Probably some other players.  The team will look a lot different and hopefully we get some prospects to build around and not just picks.

 

I think they'll add some college free agents too, and those guys could arrive sooner since they'll be older when we get them.

 

And if we end up with a top-5 pick in June, that could be a player that arrives pretty quickly.

 

The Sabres are less than the sum of their parts right now.  I think a few key moves could really change how the team plays.  They looked a lot different for a game last week just from having Guhle and Ullmark in the line-up.  Things change fast in sports.

[LGR4GM]

I believe Victor Olofsson is leading the SHL in goals.

[Thorny]

That's the list if nothing changes.  The Sabres are going to trade Kane.  And Lehner.  And Poulliot.  Maybe Reinhart.  Probably some other players.  The team will look a lot different and hopefully we get some prospects to build around and not just picks.

 

I think they'll add some college free agents too, and those guys could arrive sooner since they'll be older when we get them.

 

And if we end up with a top-5 pick in June, that could be a player that arrives pretty quickly.

 

The Sabres are less than the sum of their parts right now.  I think a few key moves could really change how the team plays.  They looked a lot different for a game last week just from having Guhle and Ullmark in the line-up.  Things change fast in sports.

Right.

 

If Botterill’s job is merely to sit on his ass and wait for players he didn’t draft to reach the big club, and players his scouting team drafts to reach the big club some years later still, I could have been GM.

 

His expectation needs to be to win next season.

 

Just because Murray botched his effort to surround the young talent with a capable squad, doesn’t mean Botterill’s attempt would fail or even be conducted in a similar fashion.

 

This “we are 2/3/4 years away” logic doesn’t make sense when there are a myriad of variables that factor in to what makes a winner. Botterill needs to identify these variables, key on them, and adjust them in such a way that we gain competitiveness as soon as possible, without hampering the long term future.

 

A difficult task to be sure, and certainly he can err on the side of patience when applicable, but it’s his job.

[pi2000]

Exactly. This is why we're 3 years away. The pipeline is a ###### show.

Their 3 best prospects are playing in the NHL... Eichel, Ristolainen, Reinhart. Rodrigues belongs in Roch which would significantly contribute to their prospect points.

[JohnRobertEichel]

Right.

 

If Botterill’s job is merely to sit on his ass and wait for players he didn’t draft to reach the big club, and players his scouting team drafts to reach the big club some years later still, I could have been GM.

 

His expectation needs to be to win next season.

 

Just because Murray botched his effort to surround the young talent with a capable squad, doesn’t mean Botterill’s attempt would fail or even be conducted in a similar fashion.

 

This “we are 2/3/4 years away” logic doesn’t make sense when there are a myriad of variables that factor in to what makes a winner. Botterill needs to identify these variables, key on them, and adjust them in such a way that we gain competitiveness as soon as possible, without hampering the long term future.

 

A difficult task to be sure, and certainly he can err on the side of patience when applicable, but it’s his job.

 

Yep. Drafting well is obviously very important, but a lot of people here are forgetting the other two means by which a GM can build a roster: trade and free agency. We're not expecting a Stanley Cup next year. But becoming one of the top 50% of teams in the East is not an unreasonable request. Other franchises have tanked and bounced back in a lot less time than the Sabres have been taking.

 

Also, people need to stop acting like a desire to accelerate a rebuild is some sort of vice. Tim Murray didn't fail as a GM because he tried to hurry up the rebuild. He failed because he lacked vision, had no people skills, sucked at drafting, picked a bad head coach, was reckless with trade assets, and brought in the wrong vets to establish a locker room culture of hard work and high expectations.

 

Not that we need another reminder: but playoff droughts longer than 7 years have only occurred 7 times in NHL history. If the Hurricanes make the playoffs this season, the Sabres will have the longest active drought in the league. And the all-time record is 10 straight years without playoffs.

[PASabreFan]

Heartened by these last few posts.

[Rasmus_]

There are blips of promise, and while some were really down on Botterill's first draft, I thought he took smart moves early and a few bigger risks later on.  I liked it.  Though in the past I can contradict myself liking some of Murray's draft groups. 

[Swedesessed]

How's the cap unfair? :unsure:

 

Nevada, Florida, Texas, and Tennessee can sign players to lesser deals and players net the same as they would in states like New York and California. Can be as much as 8-10% savings. So in essence, a team like Tampa Bay can sign another player for say 6-7 million that teams from higher tax states cannot. I believe this was a factor as to why Stamkos was able to stay in TB and take less. He truly isn't netting less.

 

If Uncle Gary wants to sell this hard cap idea, change the scale so teams like Buffalo aren't hurt by it.

 

Larry Brooks from the NY Post had an excellent column about this, but darn it if I can find it right now LOL

Edited January 15, 2018 by (E5)

[Doohickie]

The rationale is that players that make it to FA are generally either way overpriced or nothing more than support players,

 

Support players may be all we need along with the limited (numbers of) talent coming out of Rochester.  Resign Pouliot, Josefson, Nolan, etc., or players like that.  Trade the young talent that doesn't fit Housley/JBot's system (Girgs?  Reino? ERod?) and help restock the pool.  Maybe even bring up some of the AHL vets to the NHL if they can provide that support, although it would probably be better if the AHL vets that are operating the system in Rochester, stay in Rochester so they can provide consistency to the incoming prospects.