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@nfreeman

Wasn’t trying to give the impression that I think Nylander is dominating the AHL. His production is top-six, the scouting reports I’m reading say he is more engaged - doing more skating and less waiting, and I’m hearing positive things from the management about his attitude, really since the prospect tourney. Essentially, his development looks good for a 20-year-old AHLer.

To my way of thinking, the only player in the Sabres middle six who is remotely earning that role is Thompson, and even he is a projection based on recent play as opposed to production. I see no reason why Kyle, Casey, Vlad, Conor, Pommer and ERod “deserve” a spot a spot in the middle six based on this year’s production.

@Samson's Flow

I don’t know if Nylander is still penalty killing with the Amerks, but I was very impressed with his positional play and dedication to defence during the exhibition season. And he leads all forwards down there in +/-.

He’s five inches shorter than Tage but only 10 pounds lighter and chiselled. He’s probably more physically ready than we might think.

I think it was more about the Sabres thinking Tage needed some nurturing while Alex needed to be challenged. So far so good on both fronts IMO, but they both have a long way to go.

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anyone who's watched the Amerks have any issues with the way Nylander has played this season? I've seen about 8 Rochester games on AHL live and he seems to be working pretty hard for the most part. He's won puck battles, he seems to have the confidence to carry the puck and I've seen him set up his team mates with some pretty nice passes.

His last goal, he had a tip in standing in front of the net. Then followed up with the sweet Shoot out winner that im sure most people have seen on highlites.

I can almost guarantee he would bring more to the team than Pominville does.

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

anyone who's watched the Amerks have any issues with the way Nylander has played this season? I've seen about 8 Rochester games on AHL live and he seems to be working pretty hard for the most part. He's won puck battles, he seems to have the confidence to carry the puck and I've seen him set up his team mates with some pretty nice passes.

His last goal, he had a tip in standing in front of the net. Then followed up with the sweet Shoot out winner that im sure most people have seen on highlites.

I can almost guarantee he would bring more to the team than Pominville does.

 

 

 

 

His coming of age has been very recent, maybe the last 5-6 games but he looks ready for a shot with the big club. 

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Just now, inkman said:

His coming of age has been very recent, maybe the last 5-6 games but he looks ready for a shot with the big club. 

He'll get his chance.   

Part of it is that when they call him up, they don't want to be put in a position where they'll quickly need to send him back down.    No harm in overbaking the young swede.... that and they probably want to give Jack a chance to clean up his heroin addiction as swede's are scientifically proven to more readily succumb to nasty drug habits... see Berglund, Patrik.

Or I'm just making stuff up to fit a narrative.

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6 hours ago, Samson's Flow said:

Mostly I think the difference in handling between TT and Nylander is based on play style.

If Nylander isn't scoring in the NHL level, then he is useless as he doesn't have the physicality or defensive acumen to contribute in other ways while learning. So let's make sure he is ready by holding him in the AHL until the team is sure he is capable of being a scoring threat in the NHL. Then when you bring him up he should be put in a scoring line role with skill players.

 Tage on the other hand had enough size and skating ability to be capable of learning at the NHL level, and (while it took a little while) was able to play other roles while he figured out how to position himself to use his hard shot as a weapon. The last few games we have seen good confidence growth, where he is now generating more chances.

Good points.  Then what is the reason for Casey Middelstadt being measured on a different scale than Nylander?   They are drafted in the same #8 position in the first round, so arguably similar skill/projected talent.  They are about the same age (Nylander one draft year  ahead and about 7 months older).   Its not like Casey blew him away in camp.   His play has been below average, and he is playing a more difficult and demanding position (Center) than Nylander could play (RW).  Yet Casey is with the big club and Alex in the AHL.  Why does he not get, or deserve the same protection?  The only thing I keep coming back to is Alex was drafted by TM and Casey by JB.  

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5 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Good points.  Then what is the reason for Casey Middelstadt being measured on a different scale than Nylander?   They are drafted in the same #8 position in the first round, so arguably similar skill/projected talent.  They are about the same age (Nylander one draft year  ahead and about 7 months older).   Its not like Casey blew him away in camp.   His play has been below average, and he is playing a more difficult and demanding position (Center) than Nylander could play (RW).  Yet Casey is with the big club and Alex in the AHL.  Why does he not get, or deserve the same protection?  The only thing I keep coming back to is Alex was drafted by TM and Casey by JB.  

We don't have any other center options.  We have plenty of options at wing.

I think JBott made a mistake in judging Casey's readiness.

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21 minutes ago, Weave said:

We don't have any other center options.  We have plenty of options at wing.

I think JBott made a mistake in judging Casey's readiness.

Lest we not forget the somewhat giant hole that quitter Berglund left. 

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1 hour ago, Weave said:

We don't have any other center options.  We have plenty of options at wing.

I think JBott made a mistake in judging Casey's readiness.

Could there have been a promise to be on the big club in order to leave the NCAA?

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I just don't feel like Berglund left a giant hole. If he had played well yes but he was scratched several times and never really seemed to get going. 

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11 hours ago, Weave said:

We don't have any other center options.  We have plenty of options at wing.

I think JBott made a mistake in judging Casey's readiness.

Cheap temporary option.....Derek Roy is still playing over in SHL (25pts/27games). 

I know you guys are happy to hear that (I mean that he's over there).

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When Jack comes back I would like to see him with Tage and Sheary...Want to see if he can help give them a boost offensively.

Also want to see a second line with Mitts centering Skinner and Reinhart.  Give Casey some talent to play with and see if he can get going.

Keep the third line with Larsson, CJ and Okposo.

Fourth line ERod, Sobotka, and Girgensons/Wilson/Remie

 

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On 1/9/2019 at 8:41 AM, LGR4GM said:

Add to that the potential of 2 or 3 first round picks also being close (in 2 years specifically). 

Well, only the firsts from this season will likely be ready in two seasons from now, the 2 we have in the 2020 draft very likely aren't ready for that 20/21 season.

And even then, what's the hit rate of 1st round picks? Counting on both from the upcoming draft being impactful in 2 seasons seems a little dicey. (not that you necessarily are, you said "close".)

Still, I wouldn't count on 3 or even 2 playing a meaningful role for this team in 2 seasons. I'd say 1 is a good bet. We probably won't be picking as high as the Mittelstadt pick (come on, St. Louis, tank next season!) with any of those 4 picks, and even he won't be an impactful NHL player until at least 3 seasons post draft. 

Could begin to see solid returns on the 2020 picks in the 22/23 season (4 seasons from now), if both pan out. It's part of the reason why I am not closed to the idea of trading a 1st for the right return, considering we have a couple extra. They fit in great with the Dahlin timeline but not so much which maximizing Eichel's. 

At the end of the day, I'm good with keeping all 4 and seeing the full benefit when Jack is 26, but I'm not opposed to trying to maximize a little more of Jack's prime. 

Edited by Thorny

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1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Well, only the firsts from this season will likely be ready in two seasons from now, the 2 we have in the 2020 draft very likely aren't ready for that 20/21 season.

And even then, what's the hit rate of 1st round picks? Counting on both from the upcoming draft being impactful in 2 seasons seems a little dicey. (not that you necessarily are, you said "close".)

Still, I wouldn't count on 3 or even 2 playing a meaningful role for this team in 2 seasons. I'd say 1 is a good bet. We probably won't be picking as high as the Mittelstadt pick (come on, St. Louis, tank next season!) with any of those 4 picks, and even he won't be an impactful NHL player until at least 3 seasons post draft. 

Could begin to see solid returns on the 2020 picks in the 22/23 season (4 seasons from now), if both pan out. It's part of the reason why I am not closed to the idea of trading a 1st for the right return, considering we have a couple extra. They fit in great with the Dahlin timeline but not so much which maximizing Eichel's. 

At the end of the day, I'm good with keeping all 4 and seeing the full benefit when Jack is 26, but I'm not opposed to trying to maximize a little more of Jack's prime. 

Hope that they start selling off players like Tarasenko soon. They are now sitting in the 8th pick and only 1pt from 10th pick and 3pts from being out of the TOP 10. Of course, a team ahead of them could also win a lottery pick which could keep them out of the TOP10 also. 

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2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Well, only the firsts from this season will likely be ready in two seasons from now, the 2 we have in the 2020 draft very likely aren't ready for that 20/21 season.

And even then, what's the hit rate of 1st round picks? Counting on both from the upcoming draft being impactful in 2 seasons seems a little dicey. (not that you necessarily are, you said "close".)

Still, I wouldn't count on 3 or even 2 playing a meaningful role for this team in 2 seasons. I'd say 1 is a good bet. We probably won't be picking as high as the Mittelstadt pick (come on, St. Louis, tank next season!) with any of those 4 picks, and even he won't be an impactful NHL player until at least 3 seasons post draft. 

Could begin to see solid returns on the 2020 picks in the 22/23 season (4 seasons from now), if both pan out. It's part of the reason why I am not closed to the idea of trading a 1st for the right return, considering we have a couple extra. They fit in great with the Dahlin timeline but not so much which maximizing Eichel's. 

At the end of the day, I'm good with keeping all 4 and seeing the full benefit when Jack is 26, but I'm not opposed to trying to maximize a little more of Jack's prime. 

Right now we’d be picking 21 and 27, with the Blues deferring.

Two year’s ago, that’s Julien Gauthier and Brett Howden

Tnree, it’s Colin White and Jacob Larsson

Four, Robby Fabbri and Nikolai Goldobin

And five, Freddie Gauthier and Marco Dano.

Kinda makes you want to trade the picks don’t it?

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8 hours ago, dudacek said:

Right now we’d be picking 21 and 27, with the Blues deferring.

Two year’s ago, that’s Julien Gauthier and Brett Howden

Tnree, it’s Colin White and Jacob Larsson

Four, Robby Fabbri and Nikolai Goldobin

And five, Freddie Gauthier and Marco Dano.

Kinda makes you want to trade the picks don’t it?

No. 

2017: Philip Chytil and Morgan Frost (Could have also had Kailer Yamomoto, Henri Jukaharju, Ryan Poehling, or Klim Kostin)

2016: Guathier and Howden (Could have also had Tage Thompson, Henrik Borgstrom, or Max Jones)

2015: Colin White and Jacob Larsson (Could have also had Brock Boeser, Travis Konecny, Anthony Beaullivier, Sebastian Aho, or Jack Roslovic)

2014: Robby Rabri and Nikolay Goldobin (Could have also had David Pasternak, Josh Ho-Sang, Adrian Kempe, or Kasperi Kapanen)

2013: Fred Guathier and Marco Dano (Could have also had Andre Burakovsky, Shea Theodore, Ryan Hartman, Ian McCoshen)

All the players in the could have section come after pick 21 but our within 5 picks of 27. I think Aho is the only exception. So the question is do you trust the Sabres scouting staff or not? If you do trust them, then you want them making the picks because they have a really good shot of hitting on least 1 and if they hit on 2, you are golden. Further if they hit on 3 of 4... say they got Boeser, Aho and Frost, Jukaharju in back to back drafts, you have really set your team up well. That's the potential for 3 of your top 9 and 1 of your top 4. If we trade those picks we are getting what? There are players that I might consider with a late first but that list is short and I am not sure it really helps us to our ultimate goal. It is a hard sell and it would have to be a perfect deal to move one of the picks and I would not move both. 

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@LGR4GM

You say “really good chance” but in fact you are actually positing best-case scenarios.

Pastrnak and Boeser are the exceptions, not the rule in that area of the draft. Odds are decent you can get a middle roster player and they are decent you get a fringe guy.

I wouldn’t trade the pick for a rental, but a proven middle-six guy with term, or an emerging guy in his early 20s? I’m in.

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9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

@LGR4GM

You say “really good chance” but in fact you are actually positing best-case scenarios.

Pastrnak and Boeser are the exceptions, not the rule in that area of the draft. Odds are decent you can get a middle roster player and they are decent you get a fringe guy.

I wouldn’t trade the pick for a rental, but a proven middle-six guy with term, or an emerging guy in his early 20s? I’m in.

You said you would trade the "picks".  I am not trading a 1st round pick for a middle 6 guy when I can draft something better. If you told me right now I could have 1.5 years of whatever 25yr old middle six guy we name or I could have Frost and Chytil in my prospect pool... I am taking Frost and Chytil. 

I don't agree it is best case scenario. You either trust our scouts and draft guys or you don't. They are slowly convincing me they understand a few things. I would rather let them make those picks and take a chance on getting David Pastrnak, the getting 2 years of some middle 6 guy for that pick PLUS whatever else you need for the deal. 

Edited by LGR4GM

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When you use the average hit rate on a pick it ignores the success rate of the GM/organization making the pick.

The stupidity of one GM cancels out the genius of another.

Is Botterill the idiot or the genius?

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According to Scott Cullen's research on drafts from 1990-2014 you have a  20% chance of getting a top 6 forwards or top 4 D at 21 and 16% at 27.  However the average of picks from 21-27 is closer to 25%.  You also have a 63% chance of getting a player you plays at least 100 NHL games.  With 4 picks over the next 2 years in the 1st rd, I'd like that odds with Jbot and his staff finding at least one top 6 forward.  In general keeping the picks; we need much more depth in our prospect pool if we are to build something that lasts.  Right now, other then Nylander, who is more likely a 3rd line player then top 6, we have NO top 6 forwards in our pipeline.  We do have two potential top 4 D in Oskari and Pilut.  https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-values-1.1119528

I understand the desire for using these assets to fill at top 6 hole.  If I could get Couterier and his value contract for one of them and a prospect, I would make that deal, but otherwise I'm not that interested in moving the picks.

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9 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

According to Scott Cullen's research on drafts from 1990-2014 you have a  20% chance of getting a top 6 forwards or top 4 D at 21 and 16% at 27.  However the average of picks from 21-27 is closer to 25%.  You also have a 63% chance of getting a player you plays at least 100 NHL games.  With 4 picks over the next 2 years in the 1st rd, I'd like that odds with Jbot and his staff finding at least one top 6 forward.  In general keeping the picks; we need much more depth in our prospect pool if we are to build something that lasts.  Right now, other then Nylander, who is more likely a 3rd line player then top 6, we have NO top 6 forwards in our pipeline.  We do have two potential top 4 D in Oskari and Pilut.  https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-values-1.1119528

I understand the desire for using these assets to fill at top 6 hole.  If I could get Couterier and his value contract for one of them and a prospect, I would make that deal, but otherwise I'm not that interested in moving the picks.

Would barely think twice if Couturier were coming back for the package including 1 of the 1sts.  That would be worth a package including a 1.

Random aside: Curious how they're defining top 6 / bottom 6 player.  How many games does a guy have to play in either role to get considered say a "top 6" player?  Or does it go by peak scoring?  Because, pretty sure we'd all consider Girgensons a bottom 6 guy, but during the dark time, he was playing top line.  Is he officially top liner or bottom 6?  What about that guy that at least 1 poster thought would be available for Derek Roy?  He's almost always been the Pens' 2nd C but also has always been their 2nd best F.  By skill, he's a top liner, but by usage only a 2nd liner.

 

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15 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

According to Scott Cullen's research on drafts from 1990-2014 you have a  20% chance of getting a top 6 forwards or top 4 D at 21 and 16% at 27.  However the average of picks from 21-27 is closer to 25%.  You also have a 63% chance of getting a player you plays at least 100 NHL games.  With 4 picks over the next 2 years in the 1st rd, I'd like that odds with Jbot and his staff finding at least one top 6 forward.  In general keeping the picks; we need much more depth in our prospect pool if we are to build something that lasts.  Right now, other then Nylander, who is more likely a 3rd line player then top 6, we have NO top 6 forwards in our pipeline.  We do have two potential top 4 D in Oskari and Pilut.  https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-values-1.1119528

I understand the desire for using these assets to fill at top 6 hole.  If I could get Couterier and his value contract for one of them and a prospect, I would make that deal, but otherwise I'm not that interested in moving the picks.

JB really shouldn't be waiting until the 2020 draft to round out the top 6 forwards. When would a 2020 1st round forward even be ready to play in the NHL?!

I think JB needs to have all top 6 forwards on the big roster and ready by this fall. This isn't that big of a demand. The top 3 are already set with the Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart line, so it's really just a second line that needs to be constructed out of Mittelstadt, Nylander, possibly Olofsson, possibly Thompson, any free agents this summer, any of the 2-3 1st round draft picks we have this summer, and any type of creative trade JB can make a la the Skinner deal.

Enough is ***** enough with this never-ending rebuild project. Patience isn't necessarily a virtue here anymore. It may be signs of a management, coaching, and ownership group that simply doesn't know how to build a highly competitive hockey team without having to tank for lottery picks every season.

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I still don’t get what happened to Girgs. It seems Bylsma came in and his impact went to hell. Since then he has been marginalized. Give him a shot at 2C. Worse case he goes back to the third or fourth line. The guy works hard and in the ast showed he has talent.

Skinner-Eichel-Mitts

Sheary-Girgs-Sam

KO-Sobotka-TT

ERod-Larry-Pommers

We want Mitts to be a center just like we wanted Sam to be a center. Stop trying to force that which will not happen.

 

Edited by SABRES 0311

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Mitts can play center. He's 20 and in his first pro year. He basically looks pretty much like you'd expect. 

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On 1/12/2019 at 3:40 AM, SABRES 0311 said:

I still don’t get what happened to Girgs. It seems Bylsma came in and his impact went to hell. Since then he has been marginalized. Give him a shot at 2C. Worse case he goes back to the third or fourth line. The guy works hard and in the ast showed he has talent.

Skinner-Eichel-Mitts

Sheary-Girgs-Sam

KO-Sobotka-TT

ERod-Larry-Pommers

We want Mitts to be a center just like we wanted Sam to be a center. Stop trying to force that which will not happen.

 

Someone smarter and with a better memory will be able to recall this better but essentially he's the same player just being used entirely different from them. He was getting top line sheltered minutes and PP time. Now he's getting the toughest assignments with mostly D zone starts. 

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