Rating Jbot's First Draft

[Sabel79]

Some interesting food for thought regarding draft picks...TSN did the following

 

 

What I did was pull out every single draft pick from 2000-2009 (a 10-year span) based on the round they were selected, and binned the players into two groups: players who managed to log at least 50 career games at the NHL level (a reasonable way to identify players who, at worst, became replacement level NHL talent), and players who managed to log 0-49 NHL games at the NHL level (our way to identify a ‘failed’ draft pick).

How does the data shake out by round?

So, this is reasonably what we would expect. 80% of first-round picks, 44% of second-round picks, and 30% of third-round picks will become low-level (or better) NHL players. Scott Cullen has done great work looking at specific pick values.

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The whole story...http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

That, statistically speaking per this graph, five or six kids per year drafted in the first round will be expected not to make it makes me seriously wonder if anybody really knows what they're doing.

[I-90 W]

Ask me in 4 years, stupid to guess now

 

Seems rather logical to me that after talking about it for months leading up to the draft, we would talk about it the next day as well.

[inkman]

That, statistically speaking per this graph, five or six kids per year drafted in the first round will be expected not to make it makes me seriously wonder if anybody really knows what they're doing.

Such is life when drafting teenagers.

[pi2000]

How can anybody judge the draft this soon? That said, Mittlestadt will be a star seems like a great pick atm.

[Rasmus_]

I would give it a B, there is room for improvement.  I liked the Middlestadt and goalie selections and time will tell if there is a promise from the other selections.  Just like Murray received the benefit of the doubt, so shall Botterill.  He was given a bit of a mess to clean up and also to restructure the team to how he sees fit.

[ddaryl]

Impossible for me to rate this draft.. Probably a B  if I were to toss a grade at it. Its a B because we got no short term help.

 

This draft was all about 3- 5 years down the road.  SO to be upset about not drafting a defenseman early doesn't hold much water. I'm sure J Bo is aware of the need to get some D man into our system.. How he handles that will be what we all are watching

 

 

[Doohickie]

Impossible for me to rate this draft..

 

Yeah, I give it an Incomplete:  It's too early to say.

[Scottysabres]

I for one think Jbots gets an A++++ for that goalie name alone.

If that kid makes the big club the sheer amount of nickname potentials is enough for me to say Jbots is a hockey rock star.

[Samson's Flow]

I gave it a B. Every year the NHL draft is a crapshoot and if we get 2 NHL'ers from it that is a success IMO. I think there is a strong likelihood that Middelstadt plays in our top 6 by 2020, and between Davidson and the goalie one of them has a strong chance of making it. The off the radar defense picks seem like high risk, but also remind me a bit of the Red Wings 20 years ago when nobody knew about Yzerman and Federov. 

[Taro T]

I gave it a B. Every year the NHL draft is a crapshoot and if we get 2 NHL'ers from it that is a success IMO. I think there is a strong likelihood that Middelstadt plays in our top 6 by 2020, and between Davidson and the goalie one of them has a strong chance of making it. The off the radar defense picks seem like high risk, but also remind me a bit of the Red Wings 20 years ago when nobody knew about Yzerman and Federov.

 

Pretty sure you meant Datsyuk & Zetterberg. But the point is taken. Edited June 26, 2017 by Taro T

[Samson's Flow]

Pretty sure you meant Datsyuk & Zetterberg. But the point is taken.

Yeah whatever :nana:

[MattPie]

I gave it a B. Every year the NHL draft is a crapshoot and if we get 2 NHL'ers from it that is a success IMO. I think there is a strong likelihood that Middelstadt plays in our top 6 by 2020, and between Davidson and the goalie one of them has a strong chance of making it. The off the radar defense picks seem like high risk, but also remind me a bit of the Red Wings 20 years ago when nobody knew about Yzerman and Federov.

It seems in this world of connected media and big scouting budgets that there are many diamonds in the rough. I guess there could be kids that have the talent but for whatever reason fly under the radar in lesser leagues or get sidetracked from the sport somehow (see, "Unnecessary Roughness").

[Derrico]

Petersen   :)

 

UIlmark, Peterson, Petersen, Estephan, Willman, Florentino, Malone, Possler, Oloffson, Brown, Austin, the great Logan Nelson, Stephens, Borgen (4th rd), Hagel, Glotov, Osmanski.  That's all I can think of right now.  I know I'm missing a couple

Speaking of him.  Did he even get re-drafted?  Some were very concerned about not signing him but I can't find any news on where he was picked?  If he wasn't then I presume he can still be signed as an undrafted free agent?  For the record, I still don't care either way if he's signed or not.

I gave it an A, I hated the position Casey Mittelstadt plays since were so deep there but I think he'll eventually be a top 6 as a winger, I also think Luukkonen is going to be our goalie of the future. I don't have a doubt in my mind GM Botterill is going to make a trade around the Free Agency mark trading Kane for an established scorer like him for a puck moving defensmen, I'm thinking Vatanen.

Oh lord.....Maybe I'm just showing my age but I remember (not so) fondly the 'Roy and Tim are 2 top 20 centres in the league.  You can't have enough high end centres in your organization.  I also agree you can't have too many high end D in your organization.  One guy seems to be concensus ranked in the top 6, other guy was ranked by multiple people/services as outside of the top 10.  The only mild surprise is the selection was Mittelstadt over Vilardi.  

[Thorny]

Speaking of him.  Did he even get re-drafted?  Some were very concerned about not signing him but I can't find any news on where he was picked?  If he wasn't then I presume he can still be signed as an undrafted free agent?  For the record, I still don't care either way if he's signed or not.

Oh lord.....Maybe I'm just showing my age but I remember (not so) fondly the 'Roy and Tim are 2 top 20 centres in the league.  You can't have enough high end centres in your organization.  I also agree you can't have too many high end D in your organization.  One guy seems to be concensus ranked in the top 6, other guy was ranked by multiple people/services as outside of the top 10.  The only mild surprise is the selection was Mittelstadt over Vilardi.

 

And considering Vilardi fell all the way to the Kings at 11, I guess in retrospect even that bit isn't surprising.

[Derrico]

And considering Vilardi fell all the way to the Kings at 11, I guess in retrospect even that bit isn't surprising.

True.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I don't think was re-drafted.  So what does he do know?

 

Go back to Lethbridge for a an overage year?  Sign a AHL/ECHL contract and try to prove everyone wrong or head to Europe?

[pi2000]

The Q is dust.

[OhMyDahlin]

Only thing I really hated was Oskari Laaksonen over David Farrance, who went four picks later to...the Nashville Predators, who know defense better than anyone in the NHL besides Anaheim.

I believe Farrance will be a top-6 defenseman in the NHL, hopefully he pulls a Jimmy Vesey (another Predators 3rd round pick)...and goes to free agency to sign with the Sabres, his childhood team.
 

I was also hoping that, at the end of the draft, they would find a way to obtain a 7th round pick from someone to draft Jack Ahcan...I think he will be a highly targeted NCAA free agent in the next 1-2 years.


Ps. I'll take Mittelstadt over Vilardi every time...and I'm pumped to be able to see all of his games with the Gophers on The B1G Network this winter.