Update: Sabres sign D Man Viktor Antipin to 1yr ELC

[I-90 W]

Would the expansion draft be a factor at all?

Maybe they are waiting so they wouldn't have to expose him or so they could protect someone else?

I was wondering that too. I remember earlier reports saying that Antipin may be signed before the conclusion of the WC. Maybe the expansion draft is the true hold up?

[LGR4GM]

Would the expansion draft be a factor at all?

Maybe they are waiting so they wouldn't have to expose him or so they could protect someone else?

 

 

I was wondering that too. I remember earlier reports saying that Antipin may be signed before the conclusion of the WC. Maybe the expansion draft is the true hold up?

Shouldn't be. His contract wouldn't technically go into affect until July 1. However if that were the case it makes sense to wait. 

[dudacek]

As a first-year pro, would he not be exempt from the expansion draft?

[Eleven]

As a first-year pro, would he not be exempt from the expansion draft?

 

I would think that if a sixth-year pro plays his first year in the NHL and can win the Calder, this would make sense.  But it's the NHL, so...

[I-90 W]

As a first-year pro, would he not be exempt from the expansion draft?

 

I think you're right, coming from the KHL he wouldn't need to be protected but i'm not sure. All I can find online is first and second year "professionals" are exempt, but I don't know what leagues that entails other than north america.

[rakish]

In my valuation system, Antipin is a no. He was the 50th best defenseman in his age group in 2016, his best year that I've seen was 25th in his age group, but he's generally in the 40's.

 

This is my chart, comparing Antipin to Zaisev (sp?).

Falk

Fedun

Casey Nelson

[Taro T]

In my valuation system, Antipin is a no. He was the 50th best defenseman in his age group in 2016, his best year that I've seen was 25th in his age group, but he's generally in the 40's.

 

This is my chart, comparing Antipin to Zaisev (sp?).

Falk

Fedun

Casey Nelson

Interesting. Thanks for posting that.

 

Really impressive work, what you've put together through the years. How comfortable (for lack of a better word) are you w/ comparisons of KHL & other Euro league stats w/ their NA counterparts?

[rakish]

The only thing I worked on this year is league value. My current belief is that you must have a league value for each age, so I did that. My issue with it now is that I think MHL is too strong, for instance forwards from the 2016 draft look like this:

 

1 AUSTON MATTHEWS NHL 2169
2 PATRIK LAINE NHL 1991
3 CLAYTON KELLER NCAA 1804
4 IGOR SHVYRYOV MHL 1486
5 MATTHEW TKACHUK NHL 1316
6 CLIFF PU OHL 1157
7 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI AHL 1143
8 ANDREI ALTYBARMAKYAN MHL 1099

 

Two of those picks are out of whack. How far? Hard to tell. So confidence? I would say it's OK on interleague comparisons, but not great.

[GASabresIUFAN]

As a first-year pro, would he not be exempt from the expansion draft?

Zatisev was signed to the rookie max last year on a 1 year elc. Therefore, I believe Antipin would be on an Elc and be exempt.

 

Would it really be so terrible if he wasn't exempt? We'd protect him and leave Bogo availble in the draft.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Rakish, what is the basis of your model?

 

The reason I ask is that the basic stats show that over their KHL careers, Antipin was the more effective offensive defenseman and the better playoff performer, and other the Zaitsev's great season, Antipin has at least as good if not better age for age.

 

Zaitsev played 317 KHL games with 32 goals and 63 assists, with a best season at 23 years old w 12g and 32 pts.

Antipin played 266 KHL games with 36 goals and 62 assists, with a best season at 24 years old w 6g and 24 pts.

 

What has been impressive about Antipin 37 pts, including 17 goals in 79 playoff games. Zaitsev had 51 KHL playoff games with 7 goals and only 24 pts.

Edited May 13, 2017 by GASabresFan

[Weave]

Rakish throwing the brakes on irrational exuberance.  good stuff.  I don't know why we always grab onto these undrafted FA's and pin our hopes to them.  Desperation, maybe?

 

I wish one of these kids would prove me wrong for my lack of excitement.

[Sabre fan]

those stats are indeed quit  good and certainly seem to be better then Zaitsev's, who just signed a monster contract in TO

[qwksndmonster]

Rakish throwing the brakes on irrational exuberance. good stuff. I don't know why we always grab onto these undrafted FA's and pin our hopes to them. Desperation, maybe?

 

I wish one of these kids would prove me wrong for my lack of excitement.

Is anybody really displaying irrational exuberance for Antipin? Yeah, penciling him into the top 4 is premature, but irrational?

[LGR4GM]

The only thing I worked on this year is league value. My current belief is that you must have a league value for each age, so I did that. My issue with it now is that I think MHL is too strong, for instance forwards from the 2016 draft look like this:

 

1 AUSTON MATTHEWS NHL 2169

2 PATRIK LAINE NHL 1991

3 CLAYTON KELLER NCAA 1804

4 IGOR SHVYRYOV MHL 1486

5 MATTHEW TKACHUK NHL 1316

6 CLIFF PU OHL 1157

7 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI AHL 1143

8 ANDREI ALTYBARMAKYAN MHL 1099

 

Two of those picks are out of whack. How far? Hard to tell. So confidence? I would say it's OK on interleague comparisons, but not great.

The interesting part of that list is the rise of Pu... Pu floats as it were. It will be interesting to see how this years players are valued.

[Weave]

Is anybody really displaying irrational exuberance for Antipin? Yeah, penciling him into the top 4 is premature, but irrational?

 

Top 4 in the most talented league in the world?  Yes.  Even in Buffalo. 

 

Might he be a legit average 2nd pair Dman?  Yes.  He might.  It could happen.  But, penciling him in before we've seen him might be more irrational than penciling in Guhle.  We've at least seen Guhle at this level.

Edited May 13, 2017 by We've

[TrueBlueGED]

Top 4 in the most talented league in the world? Yes. Even in Buffalo.

 

Might he be a legit average 2nd pair Dman? Yes. He might. It could happen. But, penciling him in before we've seen him might be more irrational than penciling in Guhle. We've at least seen Guhle at this level.

Josh Gorges was a top-4 regular. There's nothing irrational about putting Antipin in as his replacement. Low bar baby! :p

[LGR4GM]

Top 4 in the most talented league in the world?  Yes.  Even in Buffalo. 

 

Might he be a legit average 2nd pair Dman?  Yes.  He might.  It could happen.  But, penciling him in before we've seen him might be more irrational than penciling in Guhle.  We've at least seen Guhle at this level.

Yes Darth We'ver

[I-90 W]

Top 4 in the most talented league in the world?  Yes.  Even in Buffalo. 

 

Might he be a legit average 2nd pair Dman?  Yes.  He might.  It could happen.  But, penciling him in before we've seen him might be more irrational than penciling in Guhle.  We've at least seen Guhle at this level.

 

Eh, for how many games though, like 3? We've seen very little of Guhle so far, Antipin is well established in the KHL. The KHL is arguably the second best league in the world.

[Thorny]

Is anybody really displaying irrational exuberance for Antipin? Yeah, penciling him into the top 4 is premature, but irrational?

  

Top 4 in the most talented league in the world?  Yes.  Even in Buffalo. 

 

Might he be a legit average 2nd pair Dman?  Yes.  He might.  It could happen.  But, penciling him in before we've seen him might be more irrational than penciling in Guhle.  We've at least seen Guhle at this level.

Disagree. The NHL defencemen we currently have under contract are as follows: Ristolainen, McCabe, Falk, Bogosian, Guhle, Gorges.

 

So for starters, we only have TWO TOTAL defenders who play the right side. Where Antipin supposedly plays. So he's already in our top 6 immediately upon signing.

 

Aside from that, Is it unreasonable to think he MIGHT be able to beat out just three of those 6 guys to earn a top 4 spot? He's more talented than Falk and Gorges. Could he perhaps beat out the disaster that is Bogosian and a rookie Guhle? Perhaps. Point being, on this team, it's not unreasonable to think he may play a top 4 role right off the bat, even if that doesn't ultimately come to pass.

 

This is more a comment on the current situation state of our defence. It is a barren wasteland.

[qwksndmonster]

 

Disagree. The NHL defencemen we currently have under contract are as follows: Ristolainen, McCabe, Falk, Bogosian, Guhle, Gorges.

 

So for starters, we only have TWO TOTAL defenders who play the right side. Where Antipin supposedly plays. So he's already in our top 6 immediately upon signing.

 

Aside from that, Is it unreasonable to think he MIGHT be able to beat out just three of those 6 guys to earn a top 4 spot? He's more talented than Falk and Gorges. Could he perhaps beat out the disaster that is Bogosian and a rookie Guhle? Perhaps. Point being, on this team, it's not unreasonable to think he may play a top 4 role right off the bat, even if that doesn't ultimately come to pass.

 

This is more a comment on the current situation state of our defence. It is a barren wasteland.

Ugh. It really is a barren wasteland now that Franson is gone.

[rakish]

Rakish, what is the basis of your model?

 

The reason I ask is that the basic stats show that over their KHL careers, Antipin was the more effective offensive defenseman and the better playoff performer, and other the Zaitsev's great season, Antipin has at least as good if not better age for age.

 

Zaitsev played 317 KHL games with 32 goals and 63 assists, with a best season at 23 years old w 12g and 32 pts.

Antipin played 266 KHL games with 36 goals and 62 assists, with a best season at 24 years old w 6g and 24 pts.

 

What has been impressive about Antipin 37 pts, including 17 goals in 79 playoff games. Zaitsev had 51 KHL playoff games with 7 goals and only 24 pts.

 

First, look at this link for 2016

Scoring is an important metric, but it's also important how you score related to your team. Antipin gets outscored by 40 points (I use base 60) to fellow defenseman Chris Lee. As for the team, Mozyakin outscores him by 60 points, the Lee number is a huge number. Admittedly, if Antipin doesn't play with Lee, his valuation shouldn't be as weak as it is, but the plus/minus tells us they probably play together (It's actually the only valuable use for plus/minus).  I don't have time to track down box scores to see who plays with whom.

 

in 2015, the numbers are almost exactly the same. Lee outscores him by 20, Mozyakin by 52ish.

 

Zaitsev in 2015, his last KHL season, he outscores the next highest D by -10 in my lingo (remember base 60). Radulov outscores him by roughly 40.

 

Zaitsev is a normal size NHL defenseman, Antipin isn't.

 

The teams, as far as 2015, are relatively the same.

 

The model could be outrageously wrong, that's why I like to test it with Mom's Basement Stakes. And yes, I don't look at playoffs.

 

Outside of what my model considers, Zaitsev started playing with men in 2009-10, Antipin in 2012-13 (yes they are born 14 months apart, but 36-14 is 22 months) (When they start playing with men is a big advantage in valuating Euro defensemen). Zaitsev did two tours of U20, Antipin one.

 

So overall, I don't think Antipin and Zaitsev are comparables, I'm not surprised the model doesn't think so either.

Edited May 13, 2017 by rakish

[rakish]

The interesting part of that list is the rise of Pu... Pu floats as it were. It will be interesting to see how this years players are valued.

 

This chart will warm your heart

[LGR4GM]

This chart will warm your heart

:w00t: :thumbsup: 

 warms me a lot since I really wanted Cam Dineen in the 3rd (he went one pick earlier to Arizona)

[GASabresIUFAN]

First, look at this link for 2016

Scoring is an important metric, but it's also important how you score related to your team. Antipin gets outscored by 40 points (I use base 60) to fellow defenseman Chris Lee. As for the team, Mozyakin outscores him by 60 points, the Lee number is a huge number. Admittedly, if Antipin doesn't play with Lee, his valuation shouldn't be as weak as it is, but the plus/minus tells us they probably play together (It's actually the only valuable use for plus/minus).  I don't have time to track down box scores to see who plays with whom.

 

in 2015, the numbers are almost exactly the same. Lee outscores him by 20, Mozyakin by 52ish.

 

Zaitsev in 2015, his last KHL season, he outscores the next highest D by -10 in my lingo (remember base 60). Radulov outscores him by roughly 40.

 

Zaitsev is a normal size NHL defenseman, Antipin isn't.

 

The teams, as far as 2015, are relatively the same.

 

The model could be outrageously wrong, that's why I like to test it with Mom's Basement Stakes. And yes, I don't look at playoffs.

 

Outside of what my model considers, Zaitsev started playing with men in 2009-10, Antipin in 2012-13 (yes they are born 14 months apart, but 36-14 is 22 months) (When they start playing with men is a big advantage in valuating Euro defensemen). Zaitsev did two tours of U20, Antipin one.

 

So overall, I don't think Antipin and Zaitsev are comparables, I'm not surprised the model doesn't think so either.

Thank you for the explanation. Your analysis is very interesting.

[inkman]

Disagree. The NHL defencemen we currently have under contract are as follows: Ristolainen, McCabe, Falk, Bogosian, Guhle, Gorges.

 

So for starters, we only have TWO TOTAL defenders who play the right side. Where Antipin supposedly plays. So he's already in our top 6 immediately upon signing.

 

Aside from that, Is it unreasonable to think he MIGHT be able to beat out just three of those 6 guys to earn a top 4 spot? He's more talented than Falk and Gorges. Could he perhaps beat out the disaster that is Bogosian and a rookie Guhle? Perhaps. Point being, on this team, it's not unreasonable to think he may play a top 4 role right off the bat, even if that doesn't ultimately come to pass.

 

This is more a comment on the current situation state of our defence. It is a barren wasteland.

If Buffalo had a legit NHL defense, Antipin wouldn't sniff the top 4 but because they had one of the worst in the league last season he may have a spot. I'm still not sold on a guy that small being able to succeed in the NHL on defense.