Expansion Draft -- Sabres moves and speculation

[GASabresIUFAN]

All the dominoes were supposed to fall after an XGMTM overpayment.

Rest of the league is waiting to see if they can take advantage of the new guy.

 

Sad part is that there might be a modicum of truth in your statement.

[Brawndo]

AP usually publishes a story within an hour of filing (I've learned this from following Wawrow) so we should have something soon.

There you go

 

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/76e92361d6bb4adea4bcb2cd9d5156dc/golden-knights-open-making-deals-expansion-draft

[GASabresIUFAN]

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/19242419/2017-stanley-cup-expect-free-agent-fireworks-offseason

 

For my money, the coming offseason will be the busiest in the 100-year history of the NHL.

The combination of an expansion draft and a relatively stagnant salary cap are going to produce fireworks, mostly in June, as teams jockey for free agents and make key roster decisions.

During his season-ending news conference on Tuesday, I asked Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Lou Lamoriello about the trade market for defensemen, because his team will be among the many looking for top-four help this summer. The veteran executive made a point in his response to underline how much of a wild card the expansion draft will be, that perhaps there are players people aren't even thinking about now who might end up being available to other teams because of it.

So much of it comes back to what decisions the Anaheim Ducks and Minnesota Wild make leading up to the expansion draft. The Ducks and Wild can't protect all of their depth on defense, but there's no way they're just going to let the new Vegas Knights take a good blueliner for free in the expansion draft, either. I think they will either made a side deal with Vegas or simply trade whichever defenseman they can't protect in the draft to another NHL team.

That's where I think teams -- such as Toronto, the Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Winnipeg Jets and Tampa Bay Lightning, just to name a few -- will want to at least investigate their options.

But I will also say this about the Leafs: I don't believe management is insisting that they get a top-four defenseman this summer at any cost. If someone they like is available for the right price, of course they want to upgrade the blue line. But the long-term plan and vision for the team still trumps all. Toronto's surprisingly successful season won't accelerate the plan. The Leafs brass won't do anything that jeopardizes that plan. They won't force the issue.

 

Very interesting!  Anyone else not surprised that Lou and the Leafs won't force the issue, but will only make moves if it makes sense in their plan?  Wish TM would have done that!  Hopefully the next GM will be a little more patient.

Edited May 1, 2017 by GASabresFan

[tom webster]

Pierre Lebrun just confirmed something I had brought up earlier. Sometime between now and June 21st, Vegas will be able to sign RFA's and UFA's and those signings will count as an expansion pick, i.e. if they signed Girgs and the Sabres didn't match, the Sabres would not lose anybody in the expansion draft.

Edit: apparently only applies to unprotected RFA's.

Edited May 8, 2017 by tom webster

[LGR4GM]

Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @PierreVLeBrun  11m11 minutes ago

More

Remember in that window, Vegas can sign an unprotected RFA like the player is its own. No offer sheet required. No compensation for the team

[pi2000]

A couple caveats regarding U/RFAs (who's contracts technically don't expire until July 1st) and the expansion draft (June 21st).

Any unprotected U/RFAs that Vegas selects (signs before July 1st) do not count toward the 60% salary cap requirement for the expansion draft (players they draft must add up to at minimum 60% of the salary cap). 

That said, during the 3 days preceding the draft, Vegas will have exclusive negotiating rights will ALL unprotected FAs in the draft pool.   If they reach an agreement with any of them, they'll count as their pick from that team. 

FAs on BUFs roster include Kulikov, Franson, Girgensons, Austin, Foigno, Larsson, Carrier.

 

A likely scenario is Vegas and Kulikov negotiate a deal, but he agrees not sign right away, so that allows Vegas to pick somebody else from BUF, and then officially sign Kulikov come July 1st.    That carries some risk, but essentially allows them draft more than one player from each team.

This also creates the scenario where a team may choose to protect a UFA to prevent Vegas from negotiating with them prior to the draft.

Edited May 8, 2017 by pi2000

[GASabresIUFAN]

The Expansion schedule from NHL.com

The 30 NHL Clubs must submit their Protection List by 5:00 P.M. ET on Saturday, June 17, 2017. The Las Vegas team must submit their Expansion Draft Selections by 5:00 P.M. ET on June 20 and the announcement of their selections will be released on made on June 21. 

 

 

NHL Buyout period 

Begins the later of June 15 (through June 30) or 48 hrs after the Cup final ends.  Last season the 6th (and final) game was on June 12.  Last game in the 2nd rd (2016) was May 12, this year it will be May 11 at the latest.

 

I expect certain vets to be bought out to help with expansion and cap issue.  Here are some potential candidates with NMC.

1) Bieksa, 35, 1yr left at $4 mill

2) Beauchemin, 36 1yr left at 4.5

3) Hartnell, 35, 2yrs left at 4.75 (but only 7.5  total in salary)

4) Pominville, 34, 2yrs left at 5.6 - had a good year last year, but they may want to buy him out to protect Staal.  Still will have to trade a D

5) Fleury, 32, 2yrs left at 5.75 if he isn't traded first. (has NMC - so will have to approve trade). Doubt they want to risk losing Matt Murray.

 

If Pommers gets bought out he'd be a great veteran to bring back for a year or 2.

Edited May 8, 2017 by GASabresFan

[nfreeman]

I'm resurrecting this thread because this is the next big opportunity for the Sabres to improve this team two ways.  The first is by addition through subtraction, and the second is by utilizing our assets and other teams bad expansion situations to grab a player or two.

 

1) Addition by subtraction.  This comes down to can we get LV to take one of our bad contracts.  I now think the answer is yes and that is Matt Moulson.  Moulson's contract structure is the key.  Matt has 2 years left with an annual 5 mill cap hit, but he only has $5 mill in salary left.  3 mill next season and 2 mill the year after,  This makes him perfect for LV.  All the mock expansion drafts show the knights with good goaltending and defense with no scoring.  No surprise there.   Moulson had 32 points last season, which if he were a FA would likely garner a $3 mill contract which is his salary for next year.  The real advantage to LV in getting him is cap floor compliance.  They need to get to 43 mill next season and the floor the following year.  Taking Moulson is a huge step in that direction, but without the actual salary cost to a new organization that likely doesn't want to invest huge in real dollars as they build a team.  (A lesson GMTM could learn from).  In addition, we have to understand that LV isn't taking Moulson from us without a sweetener because they know GMTM wants Moulson gone.  I suspect he'll send them either one of our backlog of RW prospects or Larrson.

 

2) GMTM must find a defenseman from one of the expansion troubled teams like Anaheim or Minn.  The biggest obstacle is cost.  I've harped on Ana because of their nauseating depth on D and terrible cap situation as the likely target. However as Minn gets bumped early in the playoffs again there are going to be big changes there and stealing a D from them might help start the ball rolling, 

 

 

Bottomline: GMTM cannot let this opportunity go to waste.  I may be his best chance ever to fixing two of his biggest mistakes as a GM.

 

#HammyMath.  No NHL team would give MM $3MM next year.  Not one.

 

Separately:  I've come to the conclusion that LV is not going to take Ennis, Moulson, Bogo or Gorges without being bribed to do so.  Every NHL team is going to expose players on crappy contracts, and there will be plenty of options for LV to choose better players than those 4. 

 

If the Sabres don't offer LV a sweetener, they'll take Ullmark, Zemgus, Larsson or another young, low-priced Sabre.

[TrueBlueGED]

#HammyMath. No NHL team would give MM $3MM next year. Not one.

 

Separately: I've come to the conclusion that LV is not going to take Ennis, Moulson, Bogo or Gorges without being bribed to do so. Every NHL team is going to expose players on crappy contracts, and there will be plenty of options for LV to choose better players than those 4.

 

If the Sabres don't offer LV a sweetener, they'll take Ullmark, Zemgus, Larsson or another young, low-priced Sabre.

Ullmark maybe, but do you really think Zemgus or Larsson will even be exposed? Who do you think gets protected in their stead?

[pi2000]

Ullmark maybe, but do you really think Zemgus or Larsson will even be exposed? Who do you think gets protected in their stead?

 

assuming O'Reilly, Okposo, and Kane are protected.

 

Choose 4 from:

 

Carrier

Foligno

Larsson

Ennis

Girgensons

Gionta

 

Some might ask why protect Gionta?   Well, if he's unprotected, VGK can negotiate with him prior to the expansion draft.    If they come to terms and he signs, he becomes their pick from BUF.... which would suck because we want them to take Bogo or Moulson.    

 

There's also the possibility they would come to terms but doesn't sign until July 1st.    Protecting him prevents VGK from negotiating before free agency begins.

[Taro T]

assuming O'Reilly, Okposo, and Kane are protected.

 

Choose 4 from:

 

Carrier

Foligno

Larsson

Ennis

Girgensons

Gionta

 

Some might ask why protect Gionta?   Well, if he's unprotected, VGK can negotiate with him prior to the expansion draft.    If they come to terms and he signs, he becomes their pick from BUF.... which would suck because we want them to take Bogo or Moulson.    

 

There's also the possibility they would come to terms but doesn't sign until July 1st.    Protecting him prevents VGK from negotiating before free agency begins.

There is NFW that Gionta, who refused a trade to a contender at this past deadline, agrees to a deal w/ EXPANSION LV to both play there AND screw over his hometown team. And that goes for ANY of your alternative universes.

 

And the only ways in which the 7 protected forwards aren't O'Reilly, Kane, Okposo, Larsson, Girgensons, Foligno, & Carrier is if Okposo's career is over due to his illness from this Spring or if the new GM needs to expose Larrson, Foligno, or Girgensons as part of a deal to keep Ullmark in the Sabres' system or some combination thereof.

[nfreeman]

Ullmark maybe, but do you really think Zemgus or Larsson will even be exposed? Who do you think gets protected in their stead?

assuming O'Reilly, Okposo, and Kane are protected.

 

Choose 4 from:

 

Carrier

Foligno

Larsson

Ennis

Girgensons

Gionta

 

Some might ask why protect Gionta?   Well, if he's unprotected, VGK can negotiate with him prior to the expansion draft.    If they come to terms and he signs, he becomes their pick from BUF.... which would suck because we want them to take Bogo or Moulson.    

 

There's also the possibility they would come to terms but doesn't sign until July 1st.    Protecting him prevents VGK from negotiating before free agency begins.

 

TB -- you are probably right that Zemgus and Larsson get protected (along with Carrier and Foligno, I'd guess).  Still, I'd guess that LV would take Ullmark or DesLauriers before taking one of the fat contracts.

 

I don't think they'll sign Gionta before the draft.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Gionta isn't signing with LV. He'll either re-sign here or sign with a contender.

 

If I'm alleged GMJB and I can't negotiate a reasonable deal to get them to take one of our 4 bad contracts, I'm going to try to force the issue. I'm buying out Gorges on June 15. I'm then re-signing Nilsson to a 2 year deal. I then protect Falk, McCabe and Risto on D, Lehner in goal and forwards ROR, KO, Carrier, Big Z, Larsson, Foligno and Kane. I then trade Ullmark for a 3rd rd pick.

 

This exposes Bogo, Ennis, DeLo, Nilsson and Moulson and some minor league players that LV is unlikely to take.

[dudacek]

There is NFW that Gionta, who refused a trade to a contender at this past deadline, agrees to a deal w/ EXPANSION LV to both play there AND screw over his hometown team. And that goes for ANY of your alternative universes.

And the only ways in which the 7 protected forwards aren't O'Reilly, Kane, Okposo, Larsson, Girgensons, Foligno, & Carrier is if Okposo's career is over due to his illness from this Spring or if the new GM needs to expose Larrson, Foligno, or Girgensons as part of a deal to keep Ullmark in the Sabres' system or some combination thereof.

Every word.

The expansion draft should be a non-issue for Buffalo, other than praying we can somehow shake loose a bad contract or use it to add a useful defenceman.

[Randall Flagg]

TB -- you are probably right that Zemgus and Larsson get protected (along with Carrier and Foligno, I'd guess).  Still, I'd guess that LV would take Ullmark or DesLauriers before taking one of the fat contracts.

 

I don't think they'll sign Gionta before the draft.

If that's what it takes to never see him in a Sabres uni again

[nfreeman]

There is NFW that Gionta, who refused a trade to a contender at this past deadline, agrees to a deal w/ EXPANSION LV to both play there AND screw over his hometown team. And that goes for ANY of your alternative universes.

 

And the only ways in which the 7 protected forwards aren't O'Reilly, Kane, Okposo, Larsson, Girgensons, Foligno, & Carrier is if Okposo's career is over due to his illness from this Spring or if the new GM needs to expose Larrson, Foligno, or Girgensons as part of a deal to keep Ullmark in the Sabres' system or some combination thereof.

 

I agree on the forwards.

 

If the worst is true of KO, and if the Sabres do swing a deal for a defenseman, I could see them protecting 4-4-1 instead of 7-3-1.

[Randall Flagg]

Ohh . I just realized that we're going to need Deslauriers to sit on the bench and keep Baptiste in the press box in the playoffs so Jack & Sam try harder. Damn. Better protect him

[Samson's Flow]

Ohh ######. I just realized that we're going to need Deslauriers to sit on the bench and keep Baptiste in the press box in the playoffs so Jack & Sam try harder. Damn. Better protect him

Sidenote: is Deslauriers a worse hockey player than Chris Neal?

[Randall Flagg]

Sidenote: is Deslauriers a worse hockey player than Chris Neal?

Interesting question, I'm going to go explore.

[shrader]

Is there anything written into the rules that stops a team from reclaiming a drafting player if they wind up on waivers in October?  I don't believe for a second that Ullmark will be claimed, but I'll use him as an example.  If Vegas picks him, but then waives him to send him down to the minors in October, can Buffalo just claim him back?  They're going to be picking 30 players, so some wind up traded or waived shortly after.

 

Speaking of the minors, do they have an affiliate yet?

[Samson's Flow]

Interesting question, I'm going to go explore.

I know some folks around here have used hyperbole and said Des is the worst forward in the league, but can he possibly be better than someone else, especially one on a playoff roster?

[Taro T]

Every word.

The expansion draft should be a non-issue for Buffalo, other than praying we can somehow shake loose a bad contract or use it to add a useful defenceman.

Yep. The silver lining to when the Sabres chose to tank is that they are one of a handful of teams that the expansion draft has a VERY limited ability to hurt them (losing Ullmark is about it, & except for the possibility of us losing MODO, probably won't be terribly painful as there are/will be well more than 3 better goalie options for LV to choose from) & actually COULD help them. Yes, I'm looking at you, Mr. Moulson. ;)

[Drunkard]

Is there anything written into the rules that stops a team from reclaiming a drafting player if they wind up on waivers in October?  I don't believe for a second that Ullmark will be claimed, but I'll use him as an example.  If Vegas picks him, but then waives him to send him down to the minors in October, can Buffalo just claim him back?  They're going to be picking 30 players, so some wind up traded or waived shortly after.

 

Speaking of the minors, do they have an affiliate yet?

 

I have no clue how that will work for Vegas but if we did reclaim Ullmark in that scenario we'd have to keep him in Buffalo. I'm pretty sure if you put someone on waivers that you poached from waivers that players goes back to the first team who put them on waivers (assuming they'd want him which I assume they would).

[Randall Flagg]

I know some folks around here have used hyperbole and said Des is the worst forward in the league, but can he possibly be better than someone else, especially one on a playoff roster?

At one point more than halfway through the season I looked up Des's stats and his possession stats were the worst among any forward that played something like 300 minutes, and he was sporting a point total of zero, so I was comfortable calling him the worst regularly-dressed forward in the league.  

 

I'm still trying to compare their numbers. I will say, when I scaled up "minutes played" to 200 and reversed the ranking for ES points per 60, the second worst player in the league was...Kulikov.... Behind a guy that played 19 minutes for Detroit with no points. Yikes.

 

Sorry TbB, it's sunny and May. I can't bring myself to finish comparing Neil and Deslauriers. They both suck, that's enough for me.

Edited May 9, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[Samson's Flow]

At one point more than halfway through the season I looked up Des's stats and his possession stats were the worst among any forward that played something like 300 minutes, and he was sporting a point total of zero, so I was comfortable calling him the worst regularly-dressed forward in the league.  

 

I'm still trying to compare their numbers. I will say, when I scaled up "minutes played" to 200 and reversed the ranking for ES points per 60, the second worst player in the league was...Kulikov.... Behind a guy that played 19 minutes for Detroit with no points. Yikes.

 

Sorry TbB, it's sunny and May. I can't bring myself to finish comparing Neil and Deslauriers. They both suck, that's enough for me.

No worries man. I was more trying to drive discussion on an oddball topic than make you do non-sensical hockey analysis in the offseason.

 

Enjoy the summer while you can before grad school starts up!