Expansion Draft -- Sabres moves and speculation

[inkman]

Forwards:

Okposo: We have no choice

ROR: No brainer

Foligno: Finally becoming the power forward we hoped for, hopefully the consistency improves further next year

Carrier: Be a tough loss if he were to go, great young prospect with lots of upside

Zemgus: Solid depth guy, finding his way again, plus Latvian Locomotive is an awesome nickname

Kane: If we haven't traded him yet, I suppose Deslauriers if we trade Kane

Larsson: I guess, we're deep at center but sure because I need 7

 

Defense:

Risto: No brainer

McCabe: Also fairly obvious at this point

Bogo: But only if we have to

Franson: If we don't have to protect Bogo, he's been a really solid possession guy this year

 

Goalie:

Lehner: Because GMTM

 

It's still super early, who knows what we look like after the deadline. But if it were tomorrow this is what I would want to see.

You want to protect our 4th line fist eater? Edited January 11, 2017 by inkman

[GASabresIUFAN]

TBN posted a quick look at the expansion draft for the purpose of illustrating that the Sbres don't have to make a move to get an expansion eligible goalie.   http://buffalonews.com/2017/02/04/inside-sabres-expansion-draft-doesnt-affect-trade-plans/

 

That said I think this is a good time to evaluate who is in and who is out.

 

Players who will be protected

Goalie - Lehner

Defense - Risto and McCabe

Forwards - Okposo and ROR

 

Who will probably be protected.  I'm going to assume GMTM won't protect any UFAs

Forwards

3. Kane (unless traded  :P )

4. Foligno

5. Carrier - only prospect we have that isn't exempt

6. Ennis - Production still isn't there, would GMTM risk exposing him?

7. Girgensons - Larsson's injury and more physical game puts him over the line

8. Larsson - did his injury cost him his job here?

9. Moulson - no one wants his contract including us

10. Delo - easily replaced and won't be missed if taken

 

Defense

3. Bogosian - He's better the Gorges and younger, but that isn't saying much since he can't stay healthy.  

4. Gorges - We don't have any other eligible players under contract.

[pi2000]

https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft

 

Carrier will be protected. Remember GMTM traded for him, he's not going to let him get away for nothing.

 

He's going to expose at least one of Foligno, Girgensons, and Larsson because they're not his guys and don't fit his blueprint. IMO I think Girgensons gets moved at the deadline for picks.

[Norcal]

https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft

 

Carrier will be protected. Remember GMTM traded for him, he's not going to let him get away for nothing.

 

He's going to expose at least one of Foligno, Girgensons, and Larsson because they're not his guys and don't fit his blueprint. IMO I think Girgensons gets moved at the deadline for picks.

I was thinking about this recently. It seems like Girgensons has taken this as a serious opportunity one way or the other. I can't help but wonder if after Larsson's injury he was just like, it, i'm gonna go for it now whether I stay or not someones always watching.

 

He's been pretty frickin good, alot closer to what they expect from him i'd imagine.

 

I predict future success for him, in Buffalo or otherwise. I wonder what he could fetch in return?

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't see any reason not to protect Girgensons, Foligno, Larsson, and Carrier. Seriously, what's the logic to exposing one of them for the sake of Ennis and his increasingly albatross-like contract?

[Weave]

I don't see any reason not to protect Girgensons, Foligno, Larsson, and Carrier. Seriously, what's the logic to exposing one of them for the sake of Ennis and his increasingly albatross-like contract?

 

Agreed.  Ennis gets exposed.  Wish him well, but with those wheels gone he just doesn't fit anymore.

 

I don't see Deslaurier getting protected either.  Is he eligible?  I assume he is.

Edited February 5, 2017 by We've

[JohnRobertEichel]

I'm going to go with the 1G/3D/7F format:

 

1. Lehner

 

2. Ristolainen

3. McCabe

4. Gorges

 

5. R. O'Reilly

6. Okposo 

7. Kane

8. Larsson

9. Carrier

10. Girgensons

11. Ennis

[GASabresIUFAN]

I don't see any reason not to protect Girgensons, Foligno, Larsson, and Carrier. Seriously, what's the logic to exposing one of them for the sake of Ennis and his increasingly albatross-like contract?

the logic is that Larsson or Girgensons is your 4th line center and in theory is replaceable, while Ennis is a multi season 20 goal scorer and is one of your top 2 line wingers. Obviously injuries have limited his effectiveness in recent seasons, but if he gets healthy his $4 per season could be a bargain.

 

Personally I think GMTM has a very difficult decision as to which forward to expose, but in truth if we lose Ennis or Larsson or Girgensons is it really the end of the world? If I were LV's GM and the Sabres expose Ullmark, I think that is who I'm taking.

[ubkev]

the logic is that Larsson or Girgensons is your 4th line center and in theory is replaceable, while Ennis is a multi season 20 goal scorer and is one of your top 2 line wingers. Obviously injuries have limited his effectiveness in recent seasons, but if he gets healthy his $4 per season could be a bargain.

 

And if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.

[Weave]

And if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.

 

Nobody told you?

[dudacek]

So there is exactly one goalie currently available that Vegas would be tripping over himself to draft: Matt Murray.

I will bet big money the Pens will find a way to trade either him or Fleury before this happens.

 

There will be some notable veterans available: Halak, Lack and Reimer among them.

And some interesting younger guys: Gudlevskis, Grubauer, Dansk, Forsberg, Ullmark, Subban, Hammond and Hutchinson

And teams with questions: Anderson/Condon, Neimi/Lehtonen, Mrazek/Howard, Varlamov/Picard.

 

But why waste a pick on a goalie when there are so many free agents: Bernier, Enroth, Johnson, Elliott, Bishop, Mason, Neuvirth, Darling, Kuemper, Miller, Budaj, Nilsson and Pavelec.

 

One other interesting goalie tidbits

The Flyers appear to have a problem: they have to expose a goalie and the only one who meets the expansion criteria is their top prospect, Anthony Stolarz. Look for them to trade for a minor leaguer under contract next year.

 

Them, the Flames, the Stars, the Canes, Coyotes and maybe the Blues, the Canucks and the Avs are teams that might be in the market for a Fleury or a Bishop.

 

If I'm the Knights, I take Grubauer, Subban or Picard and sign one of the free agents. Although I would listen to Penguins about ways to solve their dilemma.

[GASabresIUFAN]

So there is exactly one goalie currently available that Vegas would be tripping over himself to draft: Matt Murray.

I will bet big money the Pens will find a way to trade either him or Fleury before this happens.

 

There will be some notable veterans available: Halak, Lack and Reimer among them.

And some interesting younger guys: Gudlevskis, Grubauer, Dansk, Forsberg, Ullmark, Subban, Hammond and Hutchinson

And teams with questions: Anderson/Condon, Neimi/Lehtonen, Mrazek/Howard, Varlamov/Picard.

 

But why waste a pick on a goalie when there are so many free agents: Bernier, Enroth, Johnson, Elliott, Bishop, Mason, Neuvirth, Darling, Kuemper, Miller, Budaj, Nilsson and Pavelec.

 

One other interesting goalie tidbits

The Flyers appear to have a problem: they have to expose a goalie and the only one who meets the expansion criteria is their top prospect, Anthony Stolarz. Look for them to trade for a minor leaguer under contract next year.

 

Them, the Flames, the Stars, the Canes, Coyotes and maybe the Blues, the Canucks and the Avs are teams that might be in the market for a Fleury or a Bishop.

 

If I'm the Knights, I take Grubauer, Subban or Picard and sign one of the free agents. Although I would listen to Penguins about ways to solve their dilemma.

Excellent analysis.  I would submit they will likely take 3-4 goalies.  2 vets to start the year in LV and then 2 for the AHL team. They also need to add some cap cost.  Of your FA list Bishop is the best option, but do you really think he'd sign with LV.  I don't.  I can see a Nilsson or Johnson signing there in an attempt to steal a starting gig, but that would depend on who they draft.  If I were LV, I'd grab Howard or Fleury (prefer Fleury) for the starting job and cap hit for the next 2 years.  I'd then draft Grubauer, Ullmark and maybe Subban.

[dudacek]

Excellent analysis.  I would submit they will likely take 3-4 goalies.  2 vets to start the year in LV and then 2 for the AHL team. They also need to add some cap cost.  Of your FA list Bishop is the best option, but do you really think he'd sign with LV.  I don't.  I can see a Nilsson or Johnson signing there in an attempt to steal a starting gig, but that would depend on who they draft.  If I were LV, I'd grab Howard or Fleury (prefer Fleury) for the starting job and cap hit for the next 2 years.  I'd then draft Grubauer, Ullmark and maybe Subban.

I think I'd draft Grubauer with the idea that he is the best bet to be a legit #1 going forward. And I'd sign Miller to split the load.

I'd look at drafting one of the young guys to become the backup in year two, but only after I've taken care of the foundation elsewhere.

[pi2000]

They must draft minimum of 3 goalies.

[dudacek]

They must draft minimum of 3 goalies.

I didn't see that in what I was reading. Interesting. That changes my thinking.

Are there similar requirements for defence and forwards?

Edited February 9, 2017 by dudacek

[pi2000]

I didn't see that in what I was reading. Interesting. That changes my thinking.

Are there similar requirements for defence and forwards?

minimum draft requirements:

 

1 player from each team (30)

14 forwards

9 defensemen

3 tendys

20 2017/18 contracts

$43.8m min cap hit

$73.0m max cap hit

[Polish Connection]

minimum draft requirements:

 

1 player from each team (30)

14 forwards

9 defensemen

3 tendys

20 2017/18 contracts

$43.8m min cap hit

$73.0m max cap hit

So that leaves four other picks at any position.

 

If each team can only lose one player, will players exposed and not drafted be wanted back after the team has laid their cards on the table about how they are valued?  Some players will realize that it was a numbers game and not take it personally, but I can see a secondary trade market develop as everyone tries to shuffle away their potentially disgruntled players.

[pi2000]

So that leaves four other picks at any position.

 

If each team can only lose one player, will players exposed and not drafted be wanted back after the team has laid their cards on the table about how they are valued?  Some players will realize that it was a numbers game and not take it personally, but I can see a secondary trade market develop as everyone tries to shuffle away their potentially disgruntled players.

 

 

I'm not sure they need to make the protected list public?   Each team probably submits it to the league, who presents it to the Vegas staff.    If it leaks, there could obviously be turmoil.  

[Taro T]

So that leaves four other picks at any position.

 

If each team can only lose one player, will players exposed and not drafted be wanted back after the team has laid their cards on the table about how they are valued?  Some players will realize that it was a numbers game and not take it personally, but I can see a secondary trade market develop as everyone tries to shuffle away their potentially disgruntled players.

Don't recall it being that big of an issue during the last expansions, but players that were left exposed were not happy about it.

[GASabresIUFAN]

The players will know regardless.  Capfriendly has a really good expansion tool.

 

 By the way, after using the above referenced tool, I'm changing my opinion on the trade Kane now approach.  I now think Kane gets moved this summer for Cam Fowler.

 

Here is why.

I have been advocating the Kane to Ana deal for months, but after I looked at the expansion tool on Capfriendly, I have no idea how Ana makes a deal for Kane or any other player who isn't a UFA at year's end at the deadline.  Besides all their cap issues, they have a huge expansion issue.  Right now Ana must protect Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler, and Bieksa because of no movement clauses.  They also just extended Lindholm, Rakell and Vatanen and will protect them as well.   That's 7 slots gone.  If they don't move Cam Fowler now or soon after the season, then they stuck doing the 8-1 expansion.  That means they lose Silverberg to LV which they don't want to do.  Acquiring Kane no without moving Fowler now or at season's end, would likely expose both Kane and Sliverberg to expansion, which they also don't want to do.  

 

Solution: Trade Fowler to us at season's end for Kane and then go with a 7-3-1.  This protects Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Kane, Rakell, Silfverberg and Cogliano plus Vatanen, Lindholm and Bieksa with exempt Theodore and Montour fighting for Fowler's job next fall.  

Edited February 10, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[Georgia Blizzard]

The players will know regardless.  Capfriendly has a really good expansion tool.

 

 By the way, after using the above referenced tool, I'm changing my opinion on the trade Kane now approach.  I now think Kane gets moved this summer for Cam Fowler.

 

Here is why.

I have been advocating the Kane to Ana deal for months, but after I looked at the expansion tool on Capfriendly, I have no idea how Ana makes a deal for Kane or any other player who isn't a UFA at year's end at the deadline.  Besides all their cap issues, they have a huge expansion issue.  Right now Ana must protect Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler, and Bieksa because of no movement clauses.  They also just extended Lindholm, Rakell and Vatanen and will protect them as well.   That's 7 slots gone.  If they don't move Cam Fowler now or soon after the season, then they stuck doing the 8-1 expansion.  That means they lose Silverberg to LV which they don't want to do.  Acquiring Kane no without moving Fowler now or at season's end, would likely expose both Kane and Sliverberg to expansion, which they also don't want to do.  

 

Solution: Trade Fowler to us at season's end for Kane and then go with a 7-3-1.  This protects Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Kane, Rakell, Silfverberg and Cogliano plus Vatanen, Lindholm and Bieksa with exempt Theodore and Montour fighting for Fowler's job next fall.  

 

Then Sabres under their 7-3-1 protect Risto, McCabe and Fowler ?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Yes

[dudacek]

The more I look at this, the more I'm convinced Tyler Ennis is a Golden Knight.

 

The Sabres are likely to protect Kane, ROR, Okposo, Larsson, Girgensons and Foligno.

Given their cap situation and their depth on the wing I think they keep Carrier over Moulson and Ennis; both have large salaries, depth roles and lack the fast heavy game this team is going for.

 

Available from the Sabres: Deslauriers, Moulson, Ennis, Gorges, Falk, Ullmark.

 

Vegas will be looking first for good players; unlike most expansions there will be some available.

There will not be any available from Buffalo.

 

Vegas will be looking at prospects that could turn into players.

There will be one available in from Buffalo: Linus Ullmark.

I think they look hard at him, but pass because of better goalies available.

 

Vegas will be looking at contracts: they have to reach the floor and they have to acquire a certain cap hit in the expansion draft.

Tyler Ennis is a $4.6 million hit but only a $3.6 million payout. And he is only a two-year commitment.

 

Vegas will be looking at assets

Ennis is a talented guy. Injuries appear to have robbed him of his effectiveness, but he is just 27. He's probably going to be pencilled in as a top-six guy on an expansion team, and has a better chance of scoring 20 goals than many of the Knights' other options. Any kind of production, coupled with his contract makes it pretty easy to flip him to a team looking for offensive depth heading into the playoffs.

 

I think the risk/reward for Vegas on Tyler is much better than any of the other Sabre options, unless they are very enamoured with Ullmark. At worst he is cap filler for a team interested in that. At best he is a top-six guy for them on the ice who can be flipped for assets that will help the team down the road.

Edited February 19, 2017 by dudacek

[Weave]

Ennis is a goner.  Book it.

[Scottysabres]

Posted 09 February 2017 - 10:00

 

I concur, and I believe Ennis will be the one they select given length and cost of contract combined with skill set and the flexibility Ennis had shown to play either wing

 

Posted this on Feb. 9th over in the 3 weeks until TDL thread.

 

Furthermore, if Buffalo doesn't protect Bogosain, he'll be gone. Gorges is a real possibility if not Bogo.

 

I think people are under estimating the Vegas cap situation and the window with which to view a reasonable stabilization time frame.