Around the NHL 2016-2017

[That Aud Smell]

yeah, he got busy eventually.  Evidently, I should have shut my pie-hole.

 

Not at all. You appropriately qualified what you said - that you watched for a bit, and he was quiet.

 

He's just such a frickin' talent. He can go a long stretch like that doing nothing, and then end up with 3 assists.

 

I watched about half of that game on a stream I picked up - and, man. That was fun hockey.

[Randall Flagg]

Not at all. You appropriately qualified what you said - that you watched for a bit, and he was quiet.

 

He's just such a frickin' talent. He can go a long stretch like that doing nothing, and then end up with 3 assists.

 

I watched about half of that game on a stream I picked up - and, man. That was fun hockey.

If only we had the talent to play like that. Their sixth best scorer, the almighty Tyler Bozak, would be one point behind first (in fewer games) on our team. He'd surely help put us over the top and continue to produce at that level, as he (along with the five players above him) is certainly better than ROR, KO, Kane, Jack, Samson, etc. 

 

Sigh, we just have to live with our players not being as talented as Tyler Bozak, and expect a style of play that takes that into consideration.

[TrueBlueGED]

If only we had the talent to play like that. Their sixth best scorer, the almighty Tyler Bozak, would be one point behind first (in fewer games) on our team. He'd surely help put us over the top and continue to produce at that level, as he (along with the five players above him) is certainly better than ROR, KO, Kane, Jack, Samson, etc.

 

Sigh, we just have to live with our players not being as talented as Tyler Bozak, and expect a style of play that takes that into consideration.

I could hug you. I won't. But I could.

[That Aud Smell]

If only we had the talent to play like that. Their sixth best scorer, the almighty Tyler Bozak, would be one point behind first (in fewer games) on our team. He'd surely help put us over the top and continue to produce at that level, as he (along with the five players above him) is certainly better than ROR, KO, Kane, Jack, Samson, etc. 

 

Sigh, we just have to live with our players not being as talented as Tyler Bozak, and expect a style of play that takes that into consideration.

 

That was deft.

 

I could hug you. I won't. But I could.

 

I feel you, Blue. I feel you.

 

I mean that literally, btw. 

[SwampD]

If only we had the talent to play like that. Their sixth best scorer, the almighty Tyler Bozak, would be one point behind first (in fewer games) on our team. He'd surely help put us over the top and continue to produce at that level, as he (along with the five players above him) is certainly better than ROR, KO, Kane, Jack, Samson, etc. 

 

Sigh, we just have to live with our players not being as talented as Tyler Bozak, and expect a style of play that takes that into consideration.

Replace Derek Grant with Tyler Bozak and just see how much better the Sabres are.

Edited February 22, 2017 by SwampD

[Randall Flagg]

I could hug you. I won't. But I could.

:wub:

 

But seriously Bozak is a superstar. Connor McDavid once compared his play style to Tyler Bozak.

 

Really. That happened. Not only is he generational like Gretzky, but he picked up Gretzky's "claim every single player in the world is better than he is" attribute as well. 

 

Also, the Leafs are a pretty formidable rebuild right now. But I'm not all that scared long term.

 

Matthews vs. Jack: I think it's going to be even. Right now Matthews is a more mature player, but Jack's ceiling and physical abilities are higher. Jack has shown flashes of his potential as a top 5 forward in the world. The most recent flash lasted about 2 weeks, they're getting longer. Either guy can eventually be the best player on a cup team, IMO. But watching them, Matthews can do little all game and wind up with 3 points, like Smell says. The points literally find him. Any chance he gets is buried by himself or a teammate. Jack can literally go ballistic, hold the puck on his stick for four total minutes in a game, feed 10 guys for wide open net chances, and comes out of the game with maybe a point, and probably none. I see so much growth in Jack's point totals and overall play still waiting to happen, and with Matthews I see fewer areas for improvement. He's not going to get substantially faster, and he's already stronger than most of his opponents. His super skilled linemates are already around him and scoring a lot. I'm not worried about what each of their first season or so has shown, and what it will mean 5 years down the road.

 

Marner vs. Samson: I'll give the edge to Mitch here, he's looking like he can be a Patrick Kane. The Leafs won't have the advantages the Hawks did with the contracts of Keith and Hossa, so they won't be winning 3 cups, and so their Kane will seem a lot less clutch/dangerous than Chicago's. But Samson is no slouch, either. He may end up our 3rd line center. He very well may end up Bergeron-caliber AND the third best forward on the team at the same time, which is drool-worthy. 

 

Nylander vs. Nylander: Comparison is difficult right now. Willy wasn't over in the AHL until what would be next year for Alex, Alex's WJC performances have been better. I'll give this one to the Leafs, because it's the last comparison they are going to win here, and Willy has shown his talents to be effective at the NHL level.

 

Kadri vs. O'Reilly: Does anyone think Kadri comes close to his 47 points so far on this team? He's ROR lite. His team has scored 35% more goals than we have at even strength, and he gets high quality minutes with high quality linemates in a system designed to promote their own offense and not react to what other teams bring. ROR gets this matchup, easy. Now, and in the future. It's worth noting that this will be Kadri's first season at 50 points or more, ROR had 61 in only 71 games last year. 

 

JVR vs. Okposo: JVR gets a few more of his points at even strength, Okposo produces more overall recently. Wash.

 

Bozak vs. Kane: Come on. Even with injuries, give me Evander. Similar production but again, systemic/team differences, and Kane has more than doubled Tyler's ES goal total in like ten fewer games. Which one of these guys has looked better in every Sabres-Leafs game over the past two seasons? Did anyone here even remember that Tyler Bozak is a hockey player?

 

Now is where it gets fun, veteran depth.

 

Komarov, Martin, Leivo vs. Larsson, Gionta, Foligno, Girgensons: Komarov is decent, the other two Leafs players are 4th liners that shouldn't dress 82 games. Gionta is our leading ES producer, Larsson could make a Bozak comparison interesting, Foligno trounces Martin at hockey, and Girgensons is like a free cherry on top of that. Even if Komarov is the best player of these seven, and I'm not convinced he is, we take this one easily, with young players that have room to grow.

 

And now, depth of futures! 

 

Soshnikov, Brown, Hyman, Gauthier vs. Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching, Carrier, Rodrigues: We have more of this, with higher ceilings. Brown could fit in with our group, and Hyman has been to Matthews what D-Lo would be on Eichel's wing. Moreover, most of Toronto's is already playing with the team. We have yet to add our young depth for more than a couple games at a time. We're at least a year behind them with this step. 

 

Defensively, Risto is just better than Reilly, and has a higher ceiling. Gardiner has an edge on McCabe at the moment, but has little development left. Zaitsev was a find, and we don't have anyone to match him just yet. Their remaining three are Carrick, Polak, Hunwick (with some Marincin), which compares well to a group like Gorges, Weber, Franson, and Nelson. None of them are as good as a guy like Kulikov. Both teams have a lot of work to do back there. Guhle is probably a similar level prospect to Dermott. No clear edge.

 

Lehner vs. Andersen: Who cares. Lehner having a better season now though.

 

Moreover, I hate to sound like a dead puck era coach, but in game 7 of your 4th week of grinding playoff hockey, who do you want to go into the corners to battle against - ROR, KO, JEichel, Evander freaking Kane, Foligno, Larsson? Or James Van Riemsdyk, Matthews (yeah he'll beat ya), Nylander, Connor Brown, Bozak, Kadri, Marner? Which of these teams looks to be that "######, I don't want to face them in late May" team? 

 

The Leafs had a coach in place that was literally having them play above 50% possession hockey THROUGH A TANK. We are still a long ways off from a team and system that can do close to that. So their established system for success has been in place, all of their major pieces are already on the team, and (maybe I'm a homer but) their super star seems way closer to his stylistic ceiling than ours is. We still have to upgrade our system, get half of these kids (who are showing tremendous skill and speed in their brief stints) into spots, dump half a roster's worth of dead weight (Gorges, Deslauriers, Ennis, Gionta when he retires, Falk when depth pushes him to the AHL, etc.) and get our Swedish winger into this league two years down the road, without touching on the progression Samson has shown every single year of his career and the scoring chances Jack generates that don't cash in. Jack Eichel is up there with McDavid and Crosby in scoring chance and shot generation. So is Matthews. Right now, Matthews and his team are already scoring a ###### ton, Eichel and the Sabres aren't. His underlying numbers are where they need to be for that scoring to happen though, and he's ALREADY a 70 point pace player on a bum ankle. 

 

We're gonna be fine, everyone.

Edited February 22, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[WildCard]

If only we had the talent to play like that. Their sixth best scorer, the almighty Tyler Bozak, would be one point behind first (in fewer games) on our team. He'd surely help put us over the top and continue to produce at that level, as he (along with the five players above him) is certainly better than ROR, KO, Kane, Jack, Samson, etc.

 

Sigh, we just have to live with our players not being as talented as Tyler Bozak, and expect a style of play that takes that into consideration.

If only, right?

[Ducky]

I wonder if Kadri gets a call for this....should be 2 games minimum...

 

[Trettioåtta]

Eichel isn't as skilled as McDavid, as hard working as Mathews, as enthusiastic about the game as Laine.

 

He is 20.5 years old and has practically mentally checked out every other game (if not every other shift). His quotes show that he is used to not having to fight for excellence and strive to become better. He is a coaster. He will be content to be 'nearly' good enough. A 70-80 point player in his prime who is weak defensively and has weak intangibles.

 

Honestly, I think the Sabres biggest mistake with this rebuild is not trading that pick for prospects/young talent on the night of the draft (assuming there was a decent offer - which there normally is).

[Randall Flagg]

Eichel isn't as skilled as McDavid, as hard working as Mathews, as enthusiastic about the game as Laine.

 

He is 20.5 years old and has practically mentally checked out every other game (if not every other shift). His quotes show that he is used to not having to fight for excellence and strive to become better. He is a coaster. He will be content to be 'nearly' good enough. A 70-80 point player in his prime who is weak defensively and has weak intangibles.

 

Honestly, I think the Sabres biggest mistake with this rebuild is not trading that pick for prospects/young talent on the night of the draft (assuming there was a decent offer - which there normally is).

Pretty amazing to be scoring at a 70 point pace with a bum ankle on a team that was scoring at worse than tank level rates at even strength without him there, if all of that is true, don't you think?

 

Have you watched the Sabres the last two weeks? He's dominated his opponents. Eichel has the puck on his stick more often than every NHL forward but P. Kane, and hovers just above McDavid and Crosby. He averages the most shots on goal per game of any player in the entire NHL, and yet we find ourselves here every night screaming at him for passing up glorious opportunities. He generates a huge amount of high danger chances. How is he doing all of this as a mentally checked out player? The dude has insane drive. His work ethic in the gym has made him one of the strongest and fastest players in the league already. Is that the product of someone who's just in it for a paycheck? 

He has a long, slow, powerful skating stride, and is always upright. It's part of who he is. When he's off the puck this may make him look inherently lazy, but his defensive errors are almost always because of a lack of experience in that zone at this level. I can show you plenty of Matthews coasting on the back check while the other team scores, if you gave me enough time, because I watch highlights from every game all season long. Every hockey player does this and needs a kick in the butt once in a while, and true laziness/lack of effort is no more a part of Eichel's game than it is any other player in the league, excluding a couple freaks like Sid and Toews, even if it looks like that because of his stride. He doesn't know how to play there yet, which is a huge difference from not trying. Pat Kane is worse at it. Same inabilities and without the reach we've seen Jack use to disrupt plays and pick passes off.

 

We should have traded the second overall pick in that draft?? To who? For what? What in the hell do you think we would have gotten for it? When has something like that ever happened? Lindros doesn't count, because Jack wasn't refusing to play for us. Give one example of a normal offer available on draft day that actually happened and whose analogue we should have made. GODD's idea? Hanzal/Domi and OEL for Eichel and Ristolainen? Should we have done that? Would we have a better future for doing that?

 

"Intangibles". Great take. This kid wants to win more than anyone else in that dressing room, book it. 

 

He's ###### 20 years old in a trash system that produces trash at even strength and he has a sprained ankle and already is producing at the floor rate of your points prediction in his prime. 

 

I'm sure you're a fine guy and a good poster, so I mean this as impersonally as possible: That particular hockey opinion is terrible and has no backing, statistical or otherwise, except for a lazy eye test.

Edited February 23, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

I have no questions about Jack's drive.

If anything, it has gotten in the way - he tries to do things he shouldn't because he's not in college any more and he gets frustrated when they don't work.

He has the maturity of a 20-year-old and the questions 38 has will disappear with his youth.

The only way he will not be remembered with the Perreaults and the Lafontaines of his generation is if a cup elevates him to Yzerman and Sakic status.

[Weave]

Eichel isn't as skilled as McDavid, as hard working as Mathews, as enthusiastic about the game as Laine.

 

He is 20.5 years old and has practically mentally checked out every other game (if not every other shift). His quotes show that he is used to not having to fight for excellence and strive to become better. He is a coaster. He will be content to be 'nearly' good enough. A 70-80 point player in his prime who is weak defensively and has weak intangibles.

 

Honestly, I think the Sabres biggest mistake with this rebuild is not trading that pick for prospects/young talent on the night of the draft (assuming there was a decent offer - which there normally is).

 

I generally don't think Eichel is going to become the generational player we were all touting pre-draft, but I think you are probably more pessimistic than is warranted.  To compare to Sabres past, he won't be our next LaFontaine, but I think he'll have more impact than Turgeon.  Two extremes of two highly talented centers.  I'm struggling top find the exact player I'm looking for.  I've said Tavares before. that still seems about right to me.

[dudacek]

When Patty was Jacks age he was on his way to a 19 goal 54 point season in the shoot em up NHL.

Relative to the league he wasn't producing at the level Jack is now until his fifth season.

Jack will be better than Patty.

[Randall Flagg]

I generally don't think Eichel is going to become the generational player we were all touting pre-draft, but I think you are probably more pessimistic than is warranted.  To compare to Sabres past, he won't be our next LaFontaine, but I think he'll have more impact than Turgeon.  Two extremes of two highly talented centers.  I'm struggling top find the exact player I'm looking for.  I've said Tavares before. that still seems about right to me.

Jack has outproduced Tavares each of his first two seasons, PPG-wise. Tavares' NHL had more goals, and players scoring 60 of them in a season too.  I'm confident he reaches a level somewhere above Tavares, and I love Tavares. Hell, Jack's points per game is actually equal to Tavares' this season.

[inkman]

Eichel isn't as skilled as McDavid, as hard working as Mathews, as enthusiastic about the game as Laine.

 

He is 20.5 years old and has practically mentally checked out every other game (if not every other shift). His quotes show that he is used to not having to fight for excellence and strive to become better. He is a coaster. He will be content to be 'nearly' good enough. A 70-80 point player in his prime who is weak defensively and has weak intangibles.

 

Honestly, I think the Sabres biggest mistake with this rebuild is not trading that pick for prospects/young talent on the night of the draft (assuming there was a decent offer - which there normally is).

Do you get out of bed and do this every morning? 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/gymfeed/videos/984068231727171/

[Randall Flagg]

I'm going to list NHL centers under the age of 25, as well as a few kids looking to be drafted/not in the NHL yet. These will be Jack's peers throughout his career.

 

Blue players are younger than Jack. I've separated them into tiers that I imagine they'll fall in. Bold players are established in the tier that I placed them, the un-bolded players are in the tier to which I project them, and the order listed is the general order I'd prefer them if all were to hit their prime right this moment. For players comparable to Jack, near the top of this list, I'll give their stats through their 20 year old season. The starred players played their first full season immediately after being drafted, and I only starred those that did this and are above the 2C category.

 

For reference, Jack Eichel has 120 GP, 37 G, 89 P, 0.74 PPG, with a sophomore season (19, 20 years old) of 39 GP, 13 G, 33 P, 0.85 PPG.
 
 
Generational
⋆Connor McDavid:105 GP, 36 G, 115 P, 1.10 PPG. Sophomore season (19, 20 years old) 60 GP, 20 G, 67 P, 1.12 PPG
 
Top 10 Centers (old guys like Crosby, Malkin, Seguin, Tavares should still be on this list in these guys' primes)

⋆Auston Matthews: 59 GP, 28 G, 52 P, 0.88 PPG 

⋆Aleksander Barkov: First two seasons 125 GP, 24 G, 60 P, 0.48 PPG 
⋆Nathan MacKinnon: First two seasons 146 GP, 38 G, 101 P, 0.69 PPG 
 
1C on a Playoff Team

Mark Scheifele: First two full NHL seasons, starting Draft+3, 145 GP, 28 G, 83 P, 0.57 PPG. At Jack's age he had 11GP, 1G, 1P. 

⋆Alex Galchenyuk: (thru 19/20 year old season) 113 GP, 22G, 58 P, 0.51 PPG
⋆Leon Draisaitl: (thru 19/20 year old season) 109 GP, 21G, 60 P, 0.55 PPG

Evgeny Kuznetsov: Starting three years post draft, 21-22 and 22-23 yr old seasons: 97 GP, 14G, 46 P, 0.47 PPG
Ryan Johansen: spent post draft season in Jrs, first two seasons after that (thru 21 years old): 107 GP, 14G, 33 P, 0.31 PPG

Nolan Patrick

 

1C but-you'd-rather-they-be-the-2C
William Nylander: First two seasons, but didn't play D+1 in NHL, so 19-21 years old: 80 GP, 23 G, 55 P, 0.69 PPG 

Samson Reinhart: Same as Willy: 146 GP, 36 G, 80 P, 0.55 PPG
Bo Horvat: Same as Sam/Willy, but drafted in 2013. 150 GP, 29G, 65 P, 0.43 PPG in his first two seasons, no D+1 NHL action.

⋆Sean Monahan: 156 GP, 53 G, 96 P, 0.62 PPG
Dylan Larkin: Same situation as Reinhart/Nylander: 138 GP, 35 G, 64 P, 0.46 PPG
Sam Bennett: Same situation as Larkin/Reinhart/Nylander: 136 GP, 28 G, 57 P, 0.42 PPG
⋆Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 102 GP, 22 G, 76 P, 0.75 PPG (best stretch of his career was his 52 P in 62 GP to start it)

Dylan Strome
 
2C

Vincent Trocheck

Sean Couturier
Tomas Hertl

Alex Wennberg

Victor Rask

Christian Dvorak (love this guy)

Mikael Granlund
Mika Zibanejad

Rickard Rakell

Charlie Coyle

Elias Lindholm (plays a lot of wing) 
Travis Konecny (should play wing)

Robby Fabbri
Boone Jenner
Pavel Zacha
Kevin Fiala

Nick Bjugstad

Radek Faksa 

Brayden Point

 

 Bottom 6/Other

Nick Petan - Lots of work, can jump up.

Ryan Strome
Vladislav Namestnikov

Markus Granlund

Andreas Athanasiou

Mikhail Grigorenko
Matthias Janmark
Ryan Dzingel
J.G. Pageau
Joacim Nordstrom
William Karlsson

Jacob Vrana
Vincent Hinostroza
Tyler Graovac
Frank Vatrano
Joseph Blandisi
 

 

Analysis

So, for U25 centers in the NHL, the only ones that played as early as Jack and outproduced him are Connor and Auston. To find more centers that have done this, you need to look for guys that are 5 years older than Jack or more. The only centers that fall in this category,  and have a higher PPG than Jack does this year are: Crosby, Malkin, Backstrom, Seguin, Carter, Pavelski, Tavares. As Jack enters his prime, Carter and Pavelski will be gone. Toews, Giroux, and Stamkos are names that might still be around too. So let's look at the first two seasons of Crosby, Malkin, Backstrom, Seguin, Tavares, Giroux, Toews, and Stamkos.

 

Crosby: 160 GP, 75 G, 222 P, 1.39 PPG. Generational. 

Malkin: missed year due to lockout and then another year playing in Russia, first two after that: 160 GP, 80 G, 191 P, 1.19 PPG. Better than Jack will do, though we haven't seen Jack's 3rd and 4th post draft season yet. 

Tavares: 161 GP, 53 G, 121 P, 0.74 PPG. Incredibly similar production. Jack had 2 more points his rookie year and is pacing for a hair more in his second. Physical skills are better, hockey sense worse. Harder to get points in Jack's NHL. 

Stamkos: 161 GP, 74 G, 141 P, 0.88 PPG. Had a disappointing rookie year and utter explosion in second year. Injuries mean he will not be a top 10 player in 5 years most likely. 

Seguin: 155 GP, 40 G, 89 P, 0.57 PPG. Developed fairly slowly. 

Backstrom: Didn't play post draft year, rookie year at Jack's age: 82 GP, 14 G, 69 P, 0.84 PPG. Exploded next season, Ovie scored 121 goals his first two seasons, inflating his point totals by a lot.

Giroux: First two full seasons not until his D+3 season, his stats those seasons: 124 GP, 25 G, 74 P, 0.60 PPG

Toews: Didn't play til D+2, first two seasons: 146 GP, 58 G, 123 P, 0.84 PPG. Jack's D+2 season has a slightly higher PPG and Toews point totals were only at their peak for a season or two after, and haven't approached since. 

 

These are the guys that I imagine may still hang around when Jack is at his best. Between these two lists, there are only 9 players that had a higher first-two-years-points-per-game than Jack. Of those, only 6 can say they did it in their immediate post draft seasons, and others took longer, so we don't have Jack's comparison season yet. Adjusting for era, linemates, and injuries makes me think Backstrom, RNH, Stamkos won't be in the discussion for top centers in Jack's prime.
 

McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon, Barkov, Crosby, Malkin, Tavares, Seguin, maybe Giroux as the top centers that Eichel has to compete with? Jack's pace blows Seguin and Giroux and Barkov's out of the water and he's trending better than MacK and adjusting for era leaves a decent gap between himself and Tavares.

And Jack has so much more room to grow. 

I don't see any reason why Jack won't be a top 5 center in the NHL, with Matthews, McDavid, Crosby, Barkov, or a magically un-injured old Malkin, or maybe a Seguin. 

 

For me, he slots in pretty much equal to Matthews among the U25 guys. Only clearly behind Connor. The growth potential that will come with becoming a better possession player in a better possession system, learning the d-zone, and having teammates cash in on his scoring chance generation, while producing NHL-leading shots on goal per game - We have a superstar on our hands. 

 

Edited February 23, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[Wyldnwoody44]

Damn Randall, your post game is quite impressive, strong work!!

[bunomatic]

When Patty was Jacks age he was on his way to a 19 goal 54 point season in the shoot em up NHL.

Relative to the league he wasn't producing at the level Jack is now until his fifth season.

Jack will be better than Patty.

Jack'll be WAY better if we find him his Mogilny.

[Wyldnwoody44]

Gudas is a dirty POS

[bunomatic]

Come on Edmonton. Get er done.

[Thorny]

Ducks win!

[CallawaySabres]

Boston, Fla and Philly all lose last night....pretty big

[TrueBlueGED]

Wow, Flagg's takedown of ThirtyEight's Eichel position is the most brutal beating in the history of Sabrespace. Savage and unrelenting.

[Wyldnwoody44]

Wow, Flagg's takedown of ThirtyEight's Eichel position is the most brutal beating in the history of Sabrespace. Savage and unrelenting.

I just don't know how you guys have the time and effort for that much effort.... It's well appreciated.

 

And yes, that was a Nunez style knockout post!!!

[darksabre]

I just don't know how you guys have the time and effort for that much effort.... It's well appreciated.

 

And yes, that was a Nunez style knockout post!!!

I used to. I don't anymore. But I've been very glad for Flagg being here. He really puts in good work.