Vesey signs with Rangers; huge thread now moot

[pi2000]

Your math is not correct. It doesn't matter how many picks you have; each pick has a one in four chance. Period.

 

Happy trolling.

It's like a lottery, there are four numbers, each has a... oh nevermind.

[TrueBlueGED]

Pretty much the worst post in the history of Sabrespace

You don't frequent the politics thread, do you? :p

[Thorny]

Your math is not correct. It doesn't matter how many picks you have; each pick has a one in four chance. Period.

Happy trolling.

Well, he's right that with 4 picks, IF the odds were 25% for each, that the odds ARE we would hit on one. But where he is wrong is where he said that trading one away gives away our guaranteed player. One, it was never guaranteed, and 2, with 3 picks at a 25% we'd still have a better chance of hitting than not.

 

But of course, even those numbers aren't accurate, each pick isn't a definite 25%. There are too many other variables.

Edited July 22, 2016 by Thorny

[PASabreFan]

You don't frequent the politics thread, do you? :P

I know. Some expert in there predicted Trump's demise last summer.

I mean, Murray himself said the team's internal metrics had that 3rd round pick at a 7% chance of developing into as good of a prospect as Vesey is. If you think we have a greater than 7% chance of landing Vesey, then you should be happy with the trade. 

This seems like a non-sequitur.

 

Yup, it's tee up Blue day! Piñata time!

[inkman]

You don't frequent the politics thread, do you? :p

No and its for this very reason.

[K-9]

Well, he's right that with 4 picks, IF the odds were 25% for each, that the odds ARE we would hit on one. But where he is wrong is where he said that trading one away gives away our guaranteed player. One, it was never guaranteed, and 2, with 3 picks at a 25% we'd still have a better chance of hitting than not.

But of course, even those numbers aren't accurate, each pick isn't a definite 25%. There are too many other variables.

The odds are 1 in 4, regardless.

[TrueBlueGED]

I know. Some expert in there predicted Trump's demise last summer.

 

This seems like a non-sequitur.

 

Yup, it's tee up Blue day! Piñata time!

Bring it! King Kong ain't got on me!

[ct fab]

For those critical of GMTM I present you the opportunity to look back at Darcy Regier. Any other q's? In 2 years GMTM:

 

Traded away Miller for value and destroyed stl in the process

Tanked to get captain Jack

Trade bit pieces for O'Reilly

Signed the UFA's top 2016 target

Astutely added a veteran presence (gionta, gorges, legwand and even Moulsen) to avoid the EDM model

Turned a 52 point team into a potential playoff team in 2 years

Vesey, Kane, Bogo and Lehner tbd but I rather have a bold GM than a passive one.

Edited July 22, 2016 by ct fab

[7+6=13]

The odds are 1 in 4, regardless.

 

but its not 1 out of every 4

Edited July 22, 2016 by 7+6=13

[North Buffalo]

I hate to beat up on you man but you painted a pretty bleak picture by saying "he's doing decent drafting and signing a few guys". As many experts have said tirelessly free agency isn't how you build your team yet he signed Okposo arguably the top FA and to a very fair deal - so he's spending very wisely while adding young veteran players. He's drafted, traded or signed 5 of our top 6 offensive starters. The guy IMO has done one hell of a job. If anymore of his moves that haven't proven themselves good or bad yet work for the good - it'll be oh #$$# he's one of the best GM's in the game.

 

Vesey not a good decision? Again, what would you rather he did with the 3rd round pick?

 

Not taking it that way. Just am concerned about his giving away picks. Vesey's risk makes him a 5th at best... A third is too much and since 3rd rounders are a crap shoot why give away one or use them to move up. Now if he does sign with Sabres, gonna still scrutinize his effort... Lehner is a concussion away from Tin Man zone.... Vesey is he the new Staphyl bacteria.... Combined with Kane...GMTM is batting .250 on trades Maybe .300 with Lehner adding a few points for last year. I love Okposo signing and Nylander choice and generally like his draft and move up in 2nd. But Vesey deal like the Kane acquisition and Lehner trade leave big question marks in my mind. Maybe something to used to with him, TM reminds me of a home run hitter with lots of strike outs... The ones he gets a hold of are nice, but a few long foul balls and cant hit a curve ball. Edited July 22, 2016 by North Buffalo

[K-9]

but its not 1 out of every 4

No, it's not. The point is that even if you had 100 third round draft choices, the odds of any of them succeeding in the NHL is 1 in 4. All you have with those 100 picks is 100 chances to hit on a 1 in 4 probability. People like to throw out terms like, "the odds are", when the odds don't change at all. It's the old coin toss scenario. 

 

GO SABRES!!!

[North Buffalo]

No, it's not. The point is that even if you had 100 third round draft choices, the odds of any of them succeeding in the NHL is 1 in 4. All you have with those 100 picks is 100 chances to hit on a 1 in 4 probability. People like to throw out terms like, "the odds are", when the odds don't change at all. It's the old coin toss scenario.

 

GO SABRES!!!

Heck not even debating that issue, debating the use of one on a loser choice in Vesey... Even if Sabres get him not sure his attitude helps the team.. I smell a slow growing cancer. Edited July 22, 2016 by North Buffalo

[GASabresIUFAN]

No, it's not. The point is that even if you had 100 third round draft choices, the odds of any of them succeeding in the NHL is 1 in 4. All you have with those 100 picks is 100 chances to hit on a 1 in 4 probability. People like to throw out terms like, "the odds are", when the odds don't change at all. It's the old coin toss scenario. 

 

GO SABRES!!!

 

The odds of any 3rd rd pick succeeding in the NHL is 11% (aka becoming a top 3 line player or better) not 25%.  25% play 100 games or more, but 100 games isn't a very high threshold.  It's 1.25 seasons that's it.  Not exactly a major contribution.  

[K-9]

The odds of any 3rd rd pick succeeding in the NHL is 11% (aka becoming a top 3 line player or better) not 25%.  25% play 100 games or more, but 100 games isn't a very high threshold.  It's 1.25 seasons that's it.  Not exactly a major contribution.  

My apologies for misreading and misrepresenting the numbers presented up thread. 

 

But the point stands. The odds of any 3rd round pick succeeding do not change, regardless how many 3rd round picks you have. 

 

In honor of revision, less than 1 in 10 third round picks succeed. All the more statistical justification for Murray to roll the dice and take a gamble on Vesey. He would have been a top 10 pick in this year's draft, after all. 

 

GO SABRES!!!

[kas23]

No, it's not. The point is that even if you had 100 third round draft choices, the odds of any of them succeeding in the NHL is 1 in 4. All you have with those 100 picks is 100 chances to hit on a 1 in 4 probability. People like to throw out terms like, "the odds are", when the odds don't change at all. It's the old coin toss scenario.

 

GO SABRES!!!

This is true because a single player making an NHL team are independent events. However, if you look at it from the Sabres perspective, they care about just 1 of the 3rd round picks making the NHL. Now, we are no longer talking about independent events, so the odds that at least 1 of those players making it goes up.

 

If you buy 1 million tickets for a lottery and there's a 1:1,000,000 odds of winning, you have an excellent chance of winning. Your odds of taking home the money is very high, but the odds of having 1 winning ticket is still 1:1,000,000.

[beerme1]

There are examples on this page of why people don't do analytics.

Arguments state so many different percentages. For one guy it's a 7 % chance. Another one it's 8, 6, 11, 9 holy crap which is it? And then the 25% argument.

So I have now determined that analytics is like Bill Clinton. It depend on what the meaning of the word is, is.

 

Let it go, let it go.

[pi2000]

My apologies for misreading and misrepresenting the numbers presented up thread.

 

But the point stands. The odds of any 3rd round pick succeeding do not change, regardless how many 3rd round picks you have.

 

In honor of revision, less than 1 in 10 third round picks succeed. All the more statistical justification for Murray to roll the dice and take a gamble on Vesey. He would have been a top 10 pick in this year's draft, after all.

 

GO SABRES!!!

So instead of a 4 sided die, it's a 12 sided die where one side is NHL success. For every 3rd rnd pick you get one roll, where the odds are 8.3% that you get NHL quality.

 

I'd still rather have 4 rolls than 3 + what we know today about Vesey. However, back then maybe somebody tipped off GMTM that Vesey wanted to play with Echel. Knowing now that Vesey and/or his ageags are liars, I highly doubt GMTM would make that same move in retrospect.

[bunomatic]

For those critical of GMTM I present you the opportunity to look back at Darcy Regier. Any other q's? In 2 years GMTM:

 

Traded away Miller for value and destroyed stl in the process

Tanked to get captain Jack

Trade bit pieces for O'Reilly

Signed the UFA's top 2016 target

Astutely added a veteran presence (gionta, gorges, legwand and even Moulsen) to avoid the EDM model

Turned a 52 point team into a potential playoff team in 2 years

Vesey, Kane, Bogo and Lehner tbd but I rather have a bold GM than a passive one.

I agree. So refreshing to have a GM thats not terrified of losing a deal. Regier was almost paralyzed by the fear of losing the deal to the point of doing nothing. GMTM operates with ZFG. I likey

[K-9]

This is true because a single player making an NHL team are independent events. However, if you look at it from the Sabres perspective, they care about just 1 of the 3rd round picks making the NHL. Now, we are no longer talking about independent events, so the odds that at least 1 of those players making it goes up.

 

If you buy 1 million tickets for a lottery and there's a 1:1,000,000 odds of winning, you have an excellent chance of winning. Your odds of taking home the money is very high, but the odds of having 1 winning ticket is still 1:1,000,000.

Yes, if only we had 1,000,000 third round draft picks. 

 

And, once again, the odds don't change. Although "independent events" has a nice ring to it. 

 

GO SABRES!!!

So instead of a 4 sided die, it's a 12 sided die where one side is NHL success. For every 3rd rnd pick you get one roll, where the odds are 8.3% that you get NHL quality.

 

I'd still rather have 4 rolls than 3 + what we know today about Vesey. However, back then maybe somebody tipped off GMTM that Vesey wanted to play with Echel. Knowing now that Vesey and/or his ageags are liars, I highly doubt GMTM would make that same move in retrospect.

Trollin' trollin' trollin'

Keep them doggies rollin' 

[kas23]

Yes, if only we had 1,000,000 third round draft picks.

 

And, once again, the odds don't change. Although "independent events" has a nice ring to it.

It does. Because it's a standard term used in the field of probability:

 

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

 

Another way of looking at it:

 

Given 1 in 10 players make it to the NHL. You draft 3 players. Then what is the probability that at least 1 makes it to the NHL? Or, what is the probability that Player X or Player Y or player Z makes it to the NHL? Key word is "or".

 

In math terms: P(X or Y or Z)=P(X) + P(Y) + P(Z)

 

Where P=probability

 

There would be a 3/8 chance at least 1 of these players makes the NHL.

 

http://www.mathplanet.com/education/pre-algebra/probability-and-statistic/probability-of-events

 

Scroll down to the where example.

Edited July 22, 2016 by kas23

[Eleven]

You don't frequent the politics thread, do you? :P

 

 

You should see the one at Two Bills Drive.

[WildCard]

You should see the one at Two Bills Drive.

'Just legalize it!'

 

I.e. the political depth of a 16 year old

[K-9]

It does. Because it's a standard term used in the field of probability:

 

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

 

Another way of looking at it:

 

Given 1 in 10 players make it to the NHL. You draft 3 players. Then what is the probability that at least 1 makes it to the NHL? Or, what is the probability that Player X or Player Y or player Z makes it to the NHL? Key word is "or".

 

In math terms: P(X or Y or Z)=P(X) + P(Y) + P(Z)

 

Where P=probability

 

There would be a 3/8 chance at least 1 of these players makes the NHL.

 

http://www.mathplanet.com/education/pre-algebra/probability-and-statistic/probability-of-events

 

Scroll down to the where example.

I give you points for diligence. 

[Thorny]

The odds are 1 in 4, regardless.

The odds do change. Think of it this way: if you roll a 6 sided dice, the chances it lands on a "3" is one in six. If you had 100 of those dice, the odds that you roll a "3" when all is said and done, upon rolling each dice doesn't stay at 1/6. Much more likely to hit given the amount of chances.

 

The chances of hitting on one of four 25% chances is: 1- .75 x 75. X .75 = 68%

Edited July 22, 2016 by Thorny

[K-9]

The odds do change. Think of it this way: if you roll a 6 sided dice, the chances it lands on a "3" is one in six. If you had 100 of those dice, the odds that you roll a "3" when all is said and done, upon rolling each dice doesn't stay at 1/6. Much more likely to hit given the amount of chances.

 

The chances of hitting on one of four 25% chances is: 1- .75 x 75. X .75 = 68%

 

100 dice simply means 100 chances of hitting a 1 in 6 outcome. The odds are still 1 in 6 for any one of those 100 dice to land on a 3. 

Probability and odds are not the same things, mathematically speaking.