Ristolainen Signed, 6yrs 5.4mil per

[WildCard]

If he gets an 8 year deal and is still a minus player this season on team contending for the playoffs, will that matter to you?

No. I'd bet anything you can find great players over the last 2 years with negative +/- on contending teams

 

No way in hell am I ever constructing a roster based on +/-

Edited September 27, 2016 by WildCard

[pi2000]

No. I'd bet anything you can find great players over the last 2 years with negative +/- on contending teams

 

No way in hell am I ever constructing a roster based on +/-

 

Well here's the previous 2 years +/- ranking for defensemen (+120 gp)....

 

http://ice.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&report=plusminus&seasonFrom=20142015&seasonTo=20152016&gameType=2&sort=plusMinus&aggregate=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,120&pos=D

 

...Fowler at -4 maybe?   He got 5 yrs / $20mil... would you be OK with that?

[WildCard]

Well here's the previous 2 years +/- ranking for defensemen (+120 gp)....

 

http://ice.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&report=plusminus&seasonFrom=20142015&seasonTo=20152016&gameType=2&sort=plusMinus&aggregate=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,120&pos=D

 

...Fowler at -4 maybe? He got 5 yrs / $20mil... would you be OK with that?

And there's Keith Yandle, with a -30

 

And OEL, -24

 

Granted, they're not on contending teams. So how about we compare the positives of players on contending teams? Take your pick, McDonagh or Josi?

Edited September 27, 2016 by WildCard

[GASabresIUFAN]

PI I agree with you. Risto is far a from even being good in the D zone. If they don't like +/- how about Corsi?

 

Here are how the other Sabres did last year

Gorges -7, Corsi 44.8

Risto -22, Corsi 45.4, which is a big improvement from 37 the year before

Bogo -11, 46.6

McCabe +6, 47.3

 

Other comparisons

Vatanen +8, 51.7 - fyi Vatanen played 22 minutes a night and had 38 points, seems like a pretty good comparable to me. Just saying. His deal is 4.875 per for 5 years

Lindhom +7, 57

Fowler -8, 49

Ekblad +18, 51.4

Kulikov +8, 46.8; now you know why they traded him to us and why he shouldn't be on our top pair.

Hanafin -14, 50 and he is only 19 and already better defensively the Risto and is on a similar curve for scoring.

Leddy -9, 50.6 with 40 pts and he is only getting 5.5.

 

At this point I'm saying prove you can improve defensively to get a long-term deal. 2 yrs 8 mill or 1 yr 3.5.

Edited September 27, 2016 by GASabresIUFAN

[Georgia Blizzard]

Omg, how many ways can I say this. Ristolainen played more minutes, against tougher competition, at age 20, then anyone else in the NHL.

 

Again, I'm not trying to tear Risto down.  I think he is one of our best prospects at D and has the potential to be top-2, again, potential.  He's 21 years old.

I struggle with the urgency to crown him the next Bobby Orr ?  His play has been very good (NOT great), Ekblad is a year younger and a better player.

 

You dismiss +/- too quickly.  It should give all of us reason to pause and look for more information.  If you look at his advanced analytics, they are troublesome as well.  His Fenwick and Corsi PER MINUTE numbers are bad, he's ranked 90-100th in league of D-men.

 

Again, I like Risto.

I think he has a great chance to be top-4 on this team and the "POTENTIAL" to be top-2.

 

Let's just wait for more evidence

[GASabresIUFAN]

Again, I'm not trying to tear Risto down.  I think he is one of our best prospects at D and has the potential to be top-2, again, potential.  He's 21 years old.

I struggle with the urgency to crown him the next Bobby Orr ?  His play has been very good (NOT great), Ekblad is a year younger and a better player.

 

You dismiss +/- too quickly.  It should give all of us reason to pause and look for more information.  If you look at his advanced analytics, they are troublesome as well.  His Fenwick and Corsi PER MINUTE numbers are bad, he's ranked 90-100th in league of D-men.

 

Again, I like Risto.

I think he has a great chance to be top-4 on this team and the "POTENTIAL" to be top-2.

 

Let's just wait for more evidence

Agree, that's why I'm down to a 2 year bridge deal. Also nice to have another transplant down here in GA.

[Thorny]

He was on a 55+ point pace during the first half. Do you need him to be Karlsson, at age 21? Lidstrom?

 

He took a step into the top 20 defensive scorers last year, was the youngest one in that list, and played harder minutes than many of the others on the list. I just don't know what you guys need to see from Ristolainen at this point. At his age, most stud defensemen had not touched NHL ice yet, let alone played top pairing minutes against the best players in the world every single shift every single night. OF COURSE he's going to have hiccups. He was by far the highest scoring defenseman of his age with all of this taken into consideration. The hard shifts, the partner in over his head that he dragged around half the time, starting in the d-zone against top lines 58% of the time. What do you honestly expect out of a kid in this situation? How is Risto not doing well enough? I cannot fathom what you needed to see out of him to be impressed. It appears that being a clear number one Norris-discussion defender at age 21 is what is required. Which I think is crazy.

We should be enjoying our young stud D that has potential to be among the best, if not the best, in this franchise's history, and don't let the occasional slump at an age where most defensemen are still playing in college or busing around the AHL, while he's playing against Bergeron/Stamkos/Barkov/Crosby/Giroux/Malkin/Ovechkin every single night, get you too worried about his future.

I heart this post.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Omg, how many ways can I say this. Ristolainen played more minutes, against tougher competition, at age 20, then anyone else in the NHL.

Ok, but that doesn't mean he was very effective. Sometimes you get those minutes because the team doesn't have anyone else. Girgensons was once out top line center. Now he might be our 4th line pivot.

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't know how some of you have the fortitude to continue arguing with people who have no regard for the impact of player usage on statistics.

[WildCard]

I don't know how some of you have the fortitude to continue arguing with people who have no regard for the impact of player usage on statistics.

I saw corsi up there. Granted I'd rather do wowy and charts but it's a hell of a lot better than +/- Edited September 27, 2016 by WildCard

[LGR4GM]

Again, I'm fine with not giving him a mega deal

[TrueBlueGED]

I saw corsi up there. Granted I'd rather do wowy and charts but it's a hell of a lot better than +/-

 

Corsi comparisons to players who are being used in wildly different ways  :thumbdown:

[MattPie]

I'm not sure why I'm doing this:

Corsi: this is raw shots. The guy that goes out and plays against Ovechkin, Crosby, and Eichel every shift is going to look worse than the guy on his team playing against the Pat Kaletas, Adam Mairs, and MFolignos of the league. The same goes for +/-.

[Thorny]

So, just for the record, you'd be willing to give the worst +/- player at his position in the NHL an 8-year mega deal?

I thought he was third worst? ;)

[Randall Flagg]

I don't know how some of you have the fortitude to continue arguing with people who have no regard for the impact of player usage on statistics.

I had a beer. It's gone

[LGR4GM]

Well when should we start to panic? I figure in another week but seriously these two sides can't find any common ground?

[That Aud Smell]

Well when should we start to panic? I figure in another week but seriously these two sides can't find any common ground?

 

Hamilton was on WGR yesterday (?) evening. He said he'd spoken to a Finnish journo while up in Toronto and that the feeling he gets from Risto is that this is something that will get done - Risto seemed unconcerned.

 

So either it is going to get done for sure, or Risto is a hell of a poker player.

[LGR4GM]

Well we know Risto has ice in his veins. I am never playing poker against him.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Something will get done because both sides ultimately want it to get done.  That's the good news.  The bad news is that the longer this drags out the worse it is for both Risto and the Sabres.

 

One other note, not to add to much fuel to the fire, but those of us who think Risto has much work to do on the D side of the game aren't ignoring the competition he played against or the minutes he played.  My point and I think others agree is that he was thrust into that role that he wasn't completely ready for because honestly we had no one else even close to able to fill that role and still don't unless Kulikov steps up and McCabe also improves dramatically.  That doesn't mean he is a Norris contender or a No. 1 on a championship team, but he is the best we have.  Think about it.  If Risto was on the Blackhawks where would he play?  At best he'd be their 4th best D.  What about Ana?  Is he better then Lindholm, Vatanen or Fowler. I'd argue he is in Fowler's class as a player right now and inferior to both Lindholm and Vatanen.  

 

I remember when Darcy Regier famously proclaimed that Roy and Connolly were two of the top 25 centers in the NHL because they finished in the top 25 of C scoring.  People argued and so did the media that neither would be a top 2 line center on a quality team and history showed that to be the case.   

 

However, Risto's No. 1 status on this team is his best leverage, while his bad second half, RFA status and defensive lapses is GMTM's leverage.  Something will get done and we all have to hope that if it is a long-term deal that Risto doesn't become our next version of Tyler Myers.  In other words a talented young player with a huge contract that is thrust into a role he isn't suited for or doesn't develop into.  

[LGR4GM]

Good post ^ I will say that Tim Connolly's concussions are a major reason for his decline.

 

 

Well if you believe what Bob McKenzie is saying then it sounds like Rasmus and company are in the 6-6.5 range and Murray and company are in the 5-5.5 range. 

[Hoss]

McKenzie's actual tweets:

 

ANA/BUF using Morgan Rielly (6 x $5M) and Seth Jones (6 x $5.4M) as comparables for Ristolainen/Lindholm. Clubs want them in that range.

 

Ristolainen/Lindholm are pointing to Aaron Ekblad (8 x $7.5M) and not saying they expect exactly that, but are aiming for $6M+, $6.5M maybe.

Edited September 28, 2016 by Hoss

[GASabresIUFAN]

McKenzie's actual tweets:

 

ANA/BUF using Morgan Rielly (6 x $5M) and Seth Jones (6 x $5.4M) as comparables for Ristolainen/Lindholm. Clubs want them in that range.

 

Ristolainen/Lindholm are pointing to Aaron Ekblad (8 x $7.5M) and not saying they expect exactly that, but are aiming for $6M+, $6.5M maybe.

 

That is a battle Risto is going to lose and Lindholm might win or get close to winning.  

[K-9]

I don't know how some of you have the fortitude to continue arguing with people who have no regard for the impact of player usage on statistics.

Great point. I would also add the aspect of the other teams the player comparables come from. Ekblad isn't generating those +/- and Corsi numbers on the '14/'15, '15/'16 Sabres teams no matter how good he is.

Good post ^ I will say that Tim Connolly's concussions are a major reason for his decline.

 

 

Well if you believe what Bob McKenzie is saying then it sounds like Rasmus and company are in the 6-6.5 range and Murray and company are in the 5-5.5 range.

 

So, 5.75 gets it done?

[inkman]

Great point. I would also add the aspect of the other teams the player comparables come from. Ekblad isn't generating those +/- and Corsi numbers on the '14/'15, '15/'16 Sabres teams no matter how good he is.

 

So, 5.75 gets it done?

What about performance based bonuses? Start at 5 with potential for 7 per if he goes nuts (60 pts, 20 goal, etc)

[K-9]

What about performance based bonuses? Start at 5 with potential for 7 per if he goes nuts (60 pts, 20 goal, etc)

I've always been a fan of incentive laden contracts. I suspect Risto would make it a point to earn them, too, based on his work ethic.