Trettioåtta Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Hossa and Saad are the only ones without NMC/NTCs. So as you and Tank mentioned Hossa is the most likely to be moved Hossa is an idiot for not getting an NMC. He is signed for another 7 years at over 5mil (and is 35). Ridiculous contract for the club and a ridiculous contract for him (without the NMC). He will not be traded to a bottom feeder who has the cap space and probably not have a chance at a cup until his last year of his contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Hossa is an idiot for not getting an NMC. He is signed for another 7 years at over 5mil (and is 35). Ridiculous contract for the club and a ridiculous contract for him (without the NMC). He will not be traded to a bottom feeder who has the cap space and probably not have a chance at a cup until his last year of his contract. By the end of this season, he will have collected $47.4 million on that contract so far, all with the team he wanted to play for. He will retire back to Europe long before he hits the cheap years of the contract and will not play for any bottom feeder. If that makes someone an idiot, I'll gladly sign up for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 How do you think they let go? Hossa at 35 with that hit would be my bet Hossa: age (35) Salary: $7.9 mil/year until 2016/17 where it dips to $4 mil/year and then $1 mil/year in 2017/18 Hit: $5.23 mil/year UFA: 2021 Shaad: (age 21) RFA next season, still on his rookie contract I believe Sharp: (age 32) Salary: Dips to $5.5 mil/year next year Hit: $5.9 mil/year UFA: 2017 Hjalmarsson: (age 27) Salary: $4.2 mil/year Hit: $4.1 mil/year UFA: 2019 There's an outside chance they're able to move Bickell and just get by with keeping them all, but I would assume at least one of those names will be elsewhere. Hjalmarsson and Sharp have always been the ones that people expected to move at some point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Do we really want a hit of ~$5 mil/year with Hossa until he's 40? Is there a chance we can trade for him, and then maybe restructure his contract? No doubt Chicago wants someone cheaper to come in and replace him, so who are we looking at to send back? I would rather trade for Saad or Sharp myself. Hossa is an idiot for not getting an NMC. He is signed for another 7 years at over 5mil (and is 35). Ridiculous contract for the club and a ridiculous contract for him (without the NMC). He will not be traded to a bottom feeder who has the cap space and probably not have a chance at a cup until his last year of his contract. Probably agreed to waive the NMC for more term and a higher payday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 (edited) If Hossa gets traded and then retires before his contract runs out isn't Chicago on the hook for the bulk of his cap recapture? I assume they would be which is why we didn't trade Ehrhoff and just bought him out so I doubt Chicago would trade him and risk the same situation. Edited January 23, 2015 by Drunkard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Saad's contract is up after this year and he'll be a RFA. Chicago does have problems. They'll be moving one or two of Saad, Sharp, Hossa, Hjalmarsson. I'll take any of them. There is NFW that Chicago gets rid of either Sharp or Hossa. Separately: Griggy will be in Colorado as part of the price for O'Reilly. Ennis-Eichel-Zemgus Moulson-Reinhart-FA Foligno-O'Reilly-FA Deslauriers-Flynn-Kaleta I'm not penciling Armia in until he shows us something first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny DangerFace Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 There is NFW that Chicago gets rid of either Sharp or Hossa. NFW they get rid of Saad too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerme1 Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 There is NFW that Chicago gets rid of either Sharp or Hossa. Separately: Griggy will be in Colorado as part of the price for O'Reilly. Ennis-Eichel-Zemgus Moulson-Reinhart-FA Foligno-O'Reilly-FA Deslauriers-Flynn-Kaleta I'm not penciling Armia in until he shows us something first. Kaleta's not on the team next year. O'Reilly is getting paid way too much to be 3C Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pastajoe Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Kaleta's not on the team next year. He better be if he's healthy. He's one of the few who show up every game and plays like he cares. Solid 4th liner with grit who kills penalties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 There is NFW that Chicago gets rid of either Sharp or Hossa. Separately: Griggy will be in Colorado as part of the price for O'Reilly. Ennis-Eichel-Zemgus Moulson-Reinhart-FA Foligno-O'Reilly-FA Deslauriers-Flynn-Kaleta I'm not penciling Armia in until he shows us something first. They're going to have to do something. There has been plenty of talk about potential Sharp moves in the past. Those will get louder now... He better be if he's healthy. He's one of the few who show up every game and plays like he cares. Solid 4th liner with grit who kills penalties. That's the thing: he's NEVER healthy. It's likely better for him if he retires. NFW they get rid of Saad too Saad is the least likely of the three forwards. Chicago will have some serious decisions to make. They can't pay them all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 (edited) There's an outside chance they're able to move Bickell and just get by with keeping them all, but I would assume at least one of those names will be elsewhere. Hjalmarsson and Sharp have always been the ones that people expected to move at some point. I would rather trade for Saad or Sharp myself. Saad is the least likely of the three forwards. Chicago will have some serious decisions to make. Why is Sharp the most likely to move, because they actually have a chance at doing so unlike Hossa? In would imagine they would try everything they could to keep Sharp; if not, there's no doubt I would rather have him than Hossa. There is NFW that Chicago gets rid of either Sharp or Hossa. They're going to have to do something. There has been plenty of talk about potential Sharp moves in the past. Those will get louder now... This. They are the two highest cap hits likely to be shed, can't exactly afford to lose Keith or Seabrooke in comparison, even if they could with Keith's contract. Edited January 23, 2015 by WildCard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 He's one of the few who show up every game and plays like he cares. Solid 4th liner with grit who kills penalties. Not this year. Kaleta doesn't hit nearly as much as he used to, isn't drawing penalties or getting under people's skins, and we can't kill penalties to save our lives. Yes, he cares. But that's not enough. He's gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 If Hossa gets traded and then retires before his contract runs out isn't Chicago on the hook for the bulk of his cap recapture? I assume they would be which is why we didn't trade Ehrhoff and just bought him out so I doubt Chicago would trade him and risk the same situation. There's almost zero chance that he will play out that contract. They're going to be hit with a cap recapture at some point regardless of what they do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasmus_ Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Realistic look at possibilities. Sole based on what we have in stock. Moulson - Ennis - Flynn Girgensons - 2015 1st - Gionta Foligno - Reinhart - Hodgson Deslauriers - McCormick - Mitchell Bench (Options): Ellis, Varone, Larsson, Grigorenko, Carrier Myers - Gorges Ristolainen - Zadorov Pysyk - Addition Bench: Weber, McCabe Neuvirth Veteran addition Gone: Chris Stewart Drew Stafford Pat Kaleta Zac Dalpe Tyson Strachan Andrej Meszaros Andre Benoit Jonas Enroth Matt Hackett Nick Petrecki Drew Bagnall It would be nice to add someone like O'Reilly to the mix who is in his prime. But, as Murray was recently quoted, he feels Myers is part of the solution and not the problem. So we'll see. It all depends on what happens in the next 6 weeks prior to the deadline. Something unusual no one saw coming will happen I bet. I can easily see another Fasching type move made. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 O'Reilly is getting paid way too much to be 3C That would be my major concern when trading for him. He already makes 6mil per year. Anything more than that is easily 2c money and you are fast approaching 1c money once you hit 8mil. Not a lot of room there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasmus_ Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 That would be my major concern when trading for him. He already makes 6mil per year. Anything more than that is easily 2c money and you are fast approaching 1c money once you hit 8mil. Not a lot of room there. One can look at St Louis as an organization who is paying their current third line center 7M while only on the third line. That just has to do with their line depth with Lehtera really stepping in and exceeding all possible expectations. I would take O'Reilly for the Sabres and run, however it depends on the ability to retain him for multiple years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 (edited) One can look at St Louis as an organization who is paying their current third line center 7M while only on the third line. That just has to do with their line depth with Lehtera really stepping in and exceeding all possible expectations. I would take O'Reilly for the Sabres and run, however it depends on the ability to retain him for multiple years. Statsny has more of a track record than O'Reilly and I am not paying O'Reilly 7mil a year X 5-7 years. Having a young player come in an succeed is great for St Louis but they signed Statsny to be a top line center, we are realistically talking about signing him to be a 3rd line center. We know he won't be as good as McEichel and I will say Reinhart should be better. I am just not sure this is a good idea considering the assets we would have to surrender for it. Ryan O'Reilly: 0.344ppg, 0.209gpg Paul Stastny: 0.839ppg, 0.293gpg For Comparison Tyler Ennis: 0.619ppg, 0.258gpg Edited January 23, 2015 by LGR4GM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 (edited) There's almost zero chance that he will play out that contract. They're going to be hit with a cap recapture at some point regardless of what they do. The hit is way worse if they trade his contract to someone else though. I remember reading about it on this board when we were discussing trading Ehrhoff. If we held onto him and he retired the cap recapture penalty was one amount but if we traded him away and he retired from another team it was way worse. There's no way Chicago would trade Hossa and risk that just like Murray bought out Ehrhoff rather than risk the future recaptured penalty because it would have been worse if he had traded him. Imagine what Ehrhoff would have been worth on the trade market if Murray wasn't worried about cap recapture. Edited January 23, 2015 by Drunkard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Statsny has more of a track record than O'Reilly and I am not paying O'Reilly 7mil a year X 5-7 years. Having a young player come in an succeed is great for St Louis but they signed Statsny to be a top line center, we are realistically talking about signing him to be a 3rd line center. We know he won't be as good as McEichel and I will say Reinhart should be better. I am just not sure this is a good idea considering the assets we would have to surrender for it. Ryan O'Reilly: 0.344ppg, 0.209gpg Paul Stastny: 0.839ppg, 0.293gpg For Comparison Tyler Ennis: 0.619ppg, 0.258gpg Reasonable, but if ROR is a Drury type, as many have observed, his real value won't show up in scoring stats. Drury was nominally a #3 center but played more than #3 center minutes, and was certainly worth what it will cost to sign ROR (adjusted for cap inflation). It's also worth noting that the Sabres, even with McEichel, are woefully short on real NHL forwards . ROR isn't an elite scorer but he's a no-BS good NHL forward who can play in all situations. I'd give him $7MM x 5 years in a heartbeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sicknfla Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Realistic look at possibilities. Sole based on what we have in stock. Moulson - Ennis - Flynn Girgensons - 2015 1st - Gionta Foligno - Reinhart - Hodgson Deslauriers - McCormick - Mitchell Bench (Options): Ellis, Varone, Larsson, Grigorenko, Carrier If Murray iced this kind of lineup on opening night he needs to be fired before the first period is over. Luckily, I think he will be active in trades and FA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 The hit is way worse if they trade his contract to someone else though. I remember reading about it on this board when we were discussing trading Ehrhoff. If we held onto him and he retired the cap recapture penalty was one amount but if we traded him away and he retired from another team it was way worse. There's no way Chicago would trade Hossa and risk that just like Murray bought out Ehrhoff rather than risk the future recaptured penalty because it would have been worse if he had traded him. Imagine what Ehrhoff would have been worth on the trade market if Murray wasn't worried about cap recapture. I wouldn't be surprised if he Kovalchuk's it back to Europe after this season. This is the year where his recapture amount starts to climb (I miss cap geek right now). If he's going to get out, this might be the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Statsny has more of a track record than O'Reilly and I am not paying O'Reilly 7mil a year X 5-7 years. Having a young player come in an succeed is great for St Louis but they signed Statsny to be a top line center, we are realistically talking about signing him to be a 3rd line center. We know he won't be as good as McEichel and I will say Reinhart should be better. I am just not sure this is a good idea considering the assets we would have to surrender for it. Ryan O'Reilly: 0.344ppg, 0.209gpg Paul Stastny: 0.839ppg, 0.293gpg For Comparison Tyler Ennis: 0.619ppg, 0.258gpg I think it's worth noting that Stastny's scoring rates the last five years are not much, if any (I didn't technically do the calculations), better than O'Reilly's. Stastny's career averages are benefiting a great deal from playing in the couple of years after the lockout where the league called penalties and scoring rates were higher across the board. O'Reilly is also 6 years younger than Stastny. Reasonable, but if ROR is a Drury type, as many have observed, his real value won't show up in scoring stats. Drury was nominally a #3 center but played more than #3 center minutes, and was certainly worth what it will cost to sign ROR (adjusted for cap inflation). It's also worth noting that the Sabres, even with McEichel, are woefully short on real NHL forwards . ROR isn't an elite scorer but he's a no-BS good NHL forward who can play in all situations. I'd give him $7MM x 5 years in a heartbeat. Yes, all of this. This team's top-9 looks much much more workable next year with O'Reilly in the fold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasmus_ Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Statsny has more of a track record than O'Reilly and I am not paying O'Reilly 7mil a year X 5-7 years. Having a young player come in an succeed is great for St Louis but they signed Statsny to be a top line center, we are realistically talking about signing him to be a 3rd line center. We know he won't be as good as McEichel and I will say Reinhart should be better. I am just not sure this is a good idea considering the assets we would have to surrender for it. Ryan O'Reilly: 0.344ppg, 0.209gpg Paul Stastny: 0.839ppg, 0.293gpg For Comparison Tyler Ennis: 0.619ppg, 0.258gpg Good stats based analysis thanks. I guess when I see him play, I see someone who has continued to develop, while not an elite player, someone who will put up or shut up every game. Moves the puck, plays above average defense and has the ability to play the second or third line all while at 23-24. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 Good stats based analysis thanks. I guess when I see him play, I see someone who has continued to develop, while not an elite player, someone who will put up or shut up every game. Moves the puck, plays above average defense and has the ability to play the second or third line all while at 23-24. Exactly that is exactly what and who he is. If you are paying a guy 7mil per year, you really should be looking for more IMPO. That is a lot of money to have tied up in a 50-60pt a year (at best) player. Reasonable, but if ROR is a Drury type, as many have observed, his real value won't show up in scoring stats. Drury was nominally a #3 center but played more than #3 center minutes, and was certainly worth what it will cost to sign ROR (adjusted for cap inflation). It's also worth noting that the Sabres, even with McEichel, are woefully short on real NHL forwards . ROR isn't an elite scorer but he's a no-BS good NHL forward who can play in all situations. I'd give him $7MM x 5 years in a heartbeat. And in 3 years when Sam Reinhart, McEichel, Zemgus, Zadorov and Ristolainen all need non entry level deal and you have 3 more years of that 7 mil cap hit from O'Reilly do you trade him? Can you trade him? Keeping in my you have already traded to get him. What if for instance he wants more than 7mil? What if you are looking 8mil? It is a gamble that I am not sure warrants the risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted January 23, 2015 Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 And in 3 years when Sam Reinhart, McEichel, Zemgus, Zadorov and Ristolainen all need non entry level deal and you have 3 more years of that 7 mil cap hit from O'Reilly do you trade him? Can you trade him? Keeping in my you have already traded to get him. What if for instance he wants more than 7mil? What if you are looking 8mil? It is a gamble that I am not sure warrants the risk. I would only trade for him over the summer with an extension being part of the deal. I don't think anyone is going to give him $8MM. And while $7MM per year might be a bit of an overpayment, this isn't a Leino situation where they would be throwing ridiculous money at a guy who had 1 good (injury-shortened) NHL season. And I'm not certainly worrying about contracts for all of the youngsters 3 years from now. If the Sabres don't get some real forwards next year, they are going to stink again and it will become more likely than not that they move into the Edmonton-like-permanently-terrible category. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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