LastPommerFan Posted March 22, 2012 Report Share Posted March 22, 2012 could you change the title to "I want the Sabres to NEVER win the Stanley Cup"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChimp Posted March 22, 2012 Report Share Posted March 22, 2012 Then make one about the Bills :ph34r: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I am Defecting Posted March 22, 2012 Report Share Posted March 22, 2012 I'd rather not see the Penguins in the first round. It would take some serious false confidence to expect to beat the Penguins, but the Rangers, I could muster. Great analogy by GoDD on stocks too. I get the feeling that the ceiling doesn't reach the Cup this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristian Posted March 22, 2012 Report Share Posted March 22, 2012 could you change the title to "I want the Sabres to NEVER win the Stanley Cup"? .... in 2012 :flirt: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted March 22, 2012 Report Share Posted March 22, 2012 Well the Sabres are 8-2-3 since I started this thread. Maybe I should have started a topic instead, on how I want the Sabres to MAKE the playoffs. :doh: Don't hate yourself until they make it in. You know they weren't going to bottom out for draft picks regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted March 23, 2012 Report Share Posted March 23, 2012 Actually, this NHL Draft Value Chart shows the opposite: http://www.etwsports...alue-chart.html I wonder if the sole '100' in round 5 is Miller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastPommerFan Posted March 23, 2012 Report Share Posted March 23, 2012 I wonder if the sole '100' in round 5 is Miller. That data: 2001-2005 Miller: 1999 It's got to be Kevin Bieksa (or Nathan Gerbe!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted March 23, 2012 Report Share Posted March 23, 2012 Don't hate yourself until they make it in. You know they weren't going to bottom out for draft picks regardless. It's going to be the worst of both worlds in all probability. They will probably finish 9th with anywhere from 86-90 points and pick 11th in the draft with 7 teams within 4 points of them at the finish. A Sabre Special. Washington is in a pretty good spot. The Sabres need to win in Washington and win one against NY or Bos that they shouldn't, and Wash has to lose to Buf and blow a game they should win, like tonight. My best guess is they end up at 90 and Sabres 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted March 23, 2012 Report Share Posted March 23, 2012 It's going to be the worst of both worlds in all probability. They will probably finish 9th with anywhere from 86-90 points and pick 11th in the draft with 7 teams within 4 points of them at the finish. A Sabre Special. Washington is in a pretty good spot. The Sabres need to win in Washington and win one against NY or Bos that they shouldn't, and Wash has to lose to Buf and blow a game they should win, like tonight. My best guess is they end up at 90 and Sabres 87. I think you're making Washington's path a bit easier than it actually is. Winnipeg Minnesota Buffalo @Boston Montreal @Tampa Florida @NYR They're a terrible road team but very good at home. Let's say they win all remaining home games and lose remaining road games, that would put them at 91 points. I think that's the absolute best case scenario for them though, and I can see them losing to any of Winnipeg, Florida or Buffalo. I think both teams are realistically looking at around 88 points excluding....the Washington v Buffalo game, winner of that ends with 90 and gets the 8th spot. If we lose that game I honestly don't see us making it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastPommerFan Posted March 23, 2012 Report Share Posted March 23, 2012 Ottawa's schedule is no gimme either. @ MON vs PIT @ WIN @ PHI @ NYI vs CAR vs BOS @ NJ They could easily go 3-5 over that stretch. If the Sabres can can take 3 points from PIT, NYR, PHI, and BOS (assuming wins in the other 4) they'd finish ahead of Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted March 23, 2012 Report Share Posted March 23, 2012 I think you're making Washington's path a bit easier than it actually is. Winnipeg Minnesota Buffalo @Boston Montreal @Tampa Florida @NYR They're a terrible road team but very good at home. Let's say they win all remaining home games and lose remaining road games, that would put them at 91 points. I think that's the absolute best case scenario for them though, and I can see them losing to any of Winnipeg, Florida or Buffalo. I think both teams are realistically looking at around 88 points excluding....the Washington v Buffalo game, winner of that ends with 90 and gets the 8th spot. If we lose that game I honestly don't see us making it. Ok...and if Wash beats Buffalo in your scenario, Wash has 90, Buf has 88......or 1 total point off from what I was suggesting. ;) Tonight is huge.....there needs to be a surprise. If Wash and NY win....almost impossible to come back. Sabres would have to win against Washington, and make up 2 points in the other 6 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted March 23, 2012 Report Share Posted March 23, 2012 Ok...and if Wash beats Buffalo in your scenario, Wash has 90, Buf has 88......or 1 total point off from what I was suggesting. ;) Tonight is huge.....there needs to be a surprise. If Wash and NY win....almost impossible to come back. Sabres would have to win against Washington, and make up 2 points in the other 6 games. Right, I just thought you made it sound like Washington is in unless they blow it, and I don't think it's that certain as losing to Winnipeg or Florida would be far from shocking to me. I know Winnipeg is a dreadful road team, but if they lose tonight they're finished (and might be anyway) so maybe they play out of their minds in an attempt to save the season. Florida is an alright road team (although they've lost both @Washington this year) so who knows. As long as the Sabres are within a point come next week's game, then Caps v Sabres is what it all boils down to. We could win that game and miss, but if we lose that game I don't see us making it (unless Washington tanks this weekend and the Sabres end up with 3/4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deluca67 Posted March 24, 2012 Report Share Posted March 24, 2012 It's going to be the worst of both worlds in all probability. They will probably finish 9th with anywhere from 86-90 points and pick 11th in the draft with 7 teams within 4 points of them at the finish. A Sabre Special. Washington is in a pretty good spot. The Sabres need to win in Washington and win one against NY or Bos that they shouldn't, and Wash has to lose to Buf and blow a game they should win, like tonight. My best guess is they end up at 90 and Sabres 87. Which is exactly what happened tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted March 24, 2012 Report Share Posted March 24, 2012 Can't believe I just read this entire thread from start to finish. Some good stuff despite the usual sniping. Our current run makes the OP more valid than ever. Is this team far enough away that drastic action has to be taken? And Pommer's late post about the injury breakdown is the crux of the matter. Our record as a healthy team has been dominant. The sample size is now big enough to mean something. The other half of the season we've been terrible. Which one of those teams is closer to reality? I for one would like a playoff appearance to help decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DR HOLLIDAY Posted March 24, 2012 Report Share Posted March 24, 2012 Can't believe I just read this entire thread from start to finish. Some good stuff despite the usual sniping. Our current run makes the OP more valid than ever. Is this team far enough away that drastic action has to be taken? And Pommer's late post about the injury breakdown is the crux of the matter. Our record as a healthy team has been dominant. The sample size is now big enough to mean something. The other half of the season we've been terrible. Which one of those teams is closer to reality? I for one would like a playoff appearance to help decide. I think that would be a true measuring stick of the teams progress. Tough times either tear teams apart or bring them together. This years team has been through some very tough times. From the Lucic hit on Miller and all the fallout from that, to a incredible amount of injuries and a terrible extended stump. Through it all the Sabre ownership, management and coaches have stayed calm and weathered the storm. Now the team has a really solid chance of making the playoffs. What happens in the first round will be a true indication of how the Sabres really stand. I think that they will be stronger for what they have been through as a team this year and it will serve to temper them through the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted March 24, 2012 Report Share Posted March 24, 2012 I think that would be a true measuring stick of the teams progress. Tough times either tear teams apart or bring them together. This years team has been through some very tough times. From the Lucic hit on Miller and all the fallout from that, to a incredible amount of injuries and a terrible extended stump. Through it all the Sabre ownership, management and coaches have stayed calm and weathered the storm. Now the team has a really solid chance of making the playoffs. What happens in the first round will be a true indication of how the Sabres really stand. I think that they will be stronger for what they have been through as a team this year and it will serve to temper them through the playoffs. I'm still banking on the fact that teams that won in Europe to start the season, have won the SC. Fear the Sabre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChimp Posted March 24, 2012 Report Share Posted March 24, 2012 I no longer think that they're an automatic bounce if they make the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted March 24, 2012 Report Share Posted March 24, 2012 Which is exactly what happened tonight. Yeah....3 of 4 point steal. Tiebreaker is still huge. I'm going to writeup a bit why I think tonight will be tough for Buffalo in the charts thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted March 28, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 I can't possibly change my stance now. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 I can't possibly change my stance now. ;) I don't recall anyone posting this but.... last Friday afternoon I caught a clip on WGR of the Ted Black interview from earlier in the day. The one portion of it that really stood out for me was when one of the radio guys told Black that a portion of the fanbase was concerned that if the team made the playoffs that mgt might think that the team is good enough and not pursue strong enough change. Black's response was essentially, we had a great run last season, made the playoffs, and still made substantial moves in the offseason, and that we shouldn't assume that the same won't happen again if the right opportunities present itself. That response made me a whole lot more comfortable with a playoff run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMatrix31 Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 That's my line of thinking. Making the playoffs is not a sign that a team will not continue to improve in the offseason. How do we think teams that maybe fall short in the 2nd round or the Conference Finals get over that hump? They still tweak, they still add. It's not an all-or-nothing proposition. Especially with this new ownership. And if management is as bad or as incompetent as some people think they are, then it doesn't matter, they'd still screw it up/do nothing whether we made the playoffs or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 I don't recall anyone posting this but.... last Friday afternoon I caught a clip on WGR of the Ted Black interview from earlier in the day. That response made me a whole lot more comfortable with a playoff run. :w00t: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meathead Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 Feel free to bash me...I want the Bills to go winless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastPommerFan Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 The problem I have with people wanting this team to lose, get good draft picks, fire the coaches and front office, blow up the team, and start over is that they are ignoring a significant body of work that says this team is a outside contender. Maybe not in the top 4 in the league, but certainly in the top 8. I'm going to Cherry Pick a set of games here, but my justification is as follows: 11/13 Ryan Miller - Concussion 11/17 Mike Weber - Upper Body 11/20 Tyler Myers - Broken Wrist 11/24 Brad Boyes - Right Knee 11/30 Jordan Leopold - Upper Body 12/3 Patrick Kaleta - Lower Body 12/4 Paul Gaustad - Upper Body 12/8 Nathan Gerbe - Concussion 12/14 Ville Leino - Lower Body 12/18 Tyler Ennis - Ankle 12/29 Andre Sekera - Upper Body 12/31 Christian Ehrhoff - Upper Body That is a list only of the injuries to regular starters that warranted placing them on injured reserve to free up a roster spot under the 23 man limit to call up a minor league player to fill the void. No stretching the reality by including day-to-day injuries to starters or any injuries to minor league call-ups. The game against the Devils on 1/24/12 was the first game since 11/12/11 that the team had the starting goalie and at least 5 of 6 regular defensemen. This on a team with 25%+ roster turnover (Ehrhoff, Leino, Boyes, Regher, Adam, etc.) that never got a chance to "gel" as we all talked about in the preseason. It seemed like the consensus was at about 20 games before they found their stride. They didn't get 20 games together until February. So if we look at the period of time that the team was reasonably whole (opening day to veterans day, and 1/24/12 to now), the record is 21-8-3. That's 115 point pace for those keeping track at home. That team just finished an 8 game stretch where they went 3-0-1 against divisional leaders while logging thousands of miles in travel. That team is 6-2-2 against the current top ten teams in the league. That team, the one currently playing in blue and gold, is a contender. Is it a problem that they couldn't battle through the adversity? Was 11/12/11 a dark day is Sabres History? yes and yes. But even if the Sabres spent the rest of that day taking slashing penalties on Lucic's Face, even if the vets rallied around the young guys to go 5-7 rather than 0-12 on the long road stretch in Dec-Jan, Miller still would have been concussed, and the team would still only be in 8th place. Everybody points to Pittsburgh and battling through the Crosby injury. But the Pens were so bad before the lockout, that they now boast the 2 best players in the world, with one out, they've still got the other. With Crosby out they're good, but not world beaters, and with both out, they've proven to be very mediocre. I get the sunshine and kittens label because I'm an eternal optimist. My favorite teams are Notre Dame, The Sabres, and the Bills. Life would be unbearable without the optimism. But this year, I think it goes beyond just fan optimism. I think this team has proven, over a 32 game body of work, that they are among the best in the league. And now they're showing they can fight through some injuries and still win. I like their chances. A little update since I made this post: The Body of Work with the team reasonably whole is now 44 games, vs the 33 games where they struggled with injuries, especially to defensemen. The record over that span is 29-10-5, 71.6 pts%, 117 point pace. Can they play with the big boys? The Record of that team against the current top 10 is 7-4-1 The Record of that team against the current top 5 is 4-0-1 And lets take a look at those Penguins, who were so good at battling through injuries: They now have 3 D-men out with injuries, and they've lost 2 of their last 3 by a combined score of 13-6 against the senators and the islanders. The Buffalo Sabres, with the current Roster, is a very very good team. I like their chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robviously Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 I don't recall anyone posting this but.... last Friday afternoon I caught a clip on WGR of the Ted Black interview from earlier in the day. The one portion of it that really stood out for me was when one of the radio guys told Black that a portion of the fanbase was concerned that if the team made the playoffs that mgt might think that the team is good enough and not pursue strong enough change. Black's response was essentially, we had a great run last season, made the playoffs, and still made substantial moves in the offseason, and that we shouldn't assume that the same won't happen again if the right opportunities present itself. I disagree with Black's assessment somewhat. The substantial change the Sabres made is that they spent money on free agents for the first time I can remember. But they didn't move any notable players. We traded a draft pick so that we could sign Ehrhoff before he hit free agency and we traded Chris Butler and Paul Byron to get Regehr. And we signed Leino. Good moves overall but we kept the team's core completely intact and added players to it. That's not a substantial change to the roster. I would consider Philly's changes substantial. The trades we made at the deadline last month (trading our no.1 prospect for someone else's no.1 prospect, and trading an alternate captain for a draft pick) were more substantial, IMO. They equate to changing who the Sabres are building around and who the team's leaders are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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