Feel free to bash me...I want the Sabres to miss the playoffs!

[LabattBlue]

Regardless of what you want, I think you need to be realistic that Ruff and Regier aren't getting fired, this year or next year. Also while a top 5 would be nice, winning and making the playoffs makes us more attractive to UFAs. And hey, maybe we upset the Rangers. I predicted months ago they disappoint in the playoffs, and I'm sticking to my guns. I think they're as weak of a 1 seed as Buffalo was a 3 seed two years ago.

IMO Ruff & Regier are not as safe as you and others want to believe. Missing the playoffs this year would have Pegula and Black considering it.

[TheChimp]

I thought it was Justin Bieber.

 

Well, I think the Rangers are built for playoff success. They're tough, clutch, deep and have great defense and goaltending (although it must be noted that Lundy has not historically been a good playoff goalie). I would be very surprised if they lost in the first round, although it's possible if Lundy is outplayed by his counterpart.

I can see any team beating any team in the first round. It's seeing a team in your mind's eye that can persevere through four rounds that's the trick.

[darksabre]

If this team hauls its way into the playoffs at its current rate, I could see them taking the first round to 6 or 7 games. They're just playing really good hockey and getting all the bounces.

[deluca67]

IMO Ruff & Regier are not as safe as you and others want to believe. Missing the playoffs this year would have Pegula and Black considering it.

I want to believe that, from listening to Ted Black I just don't get the feeling that they would be willing to admit they were wrong by bringing back Regier and Ruff no matter if they missed the playoffs this year or next.

[TrueBlueGED]

Well, I think the Rangers are built for playoff success. They're tough, clutch, deep and have great defense and goaltending (although it must be noted that Lundy has not historically been a good playoff goalie). I would be very surprised if they lost in the first round, although it's possible if Lundy is outplayed by his counterpart.

 

They may be built for playoff success, but I don't trust their offense to produce consistently enough. They have good balanced scoring from their top 2 lines, but after that, they don't get much. They also don't get a whole lot of production from the blue line. Richards has been lights-out in the playoffs in his career, Gaborik had 2 good postseasons and 2 invisible postseason....and other than that, it's a gigantic question mark--they really are a very young, inexperienced playoff team. And you're right about Lundqivst, his numbers look simply ok-good in the playoffs, as opposed to outstanding in the regular season. Just off the cuff, if the Sabres made it to #8 I'd give us a 40% chance of winning. If the Rangers get a bad draw in round 2 though, they're very beatable.

[JJFIVEOH]

Regardless of what you want, I think you need to be realistic that Ruff and Regier aren't getting fired, this year or next year. Also while a top 5 would be nice, winning and making the playoffs makes us more attractive to UFAs. And hey, maybe we upset the Rangers. I predicted months ago they disappoint in the playoffs, and I'm sticking to my guns. I think they're as weak of a 1 seed as Buffalo was a 3 seed two years ago.

 

Right. And history has shown with the exception of a few #1 overall picks, picking higher in the first round often doesn't get you anything more. But, I think we've covered that.

[deluca67]

Right. And history has shown with the exception of a few #1 overall picks, picking higher in the first round often doesn't get you anything more. But, I think we've covered that.

So, you wouldn't be against having the draft order being reversed. Let teams like Detroit pick first every year. The better your record the higher you pick. After all, what's the difference, "picking higher in the first round often doesn't get you anything more."

[Robviously]

Right. And history has shown with the exception of a few #1 overall picks, picking higher in the first round often doesn't get you anything more. But, I think we've covered that.

Actually, this NHL Draft Value Chart shows the opposite:

http://www.etwsports.com/p/nhl-draft-value-chart.html

 

The drop-off from picking 5th overall to 15th overall is 17.33 (= 60.49 - 43.16). A similar drop off from 15th would be to the 45th pick overall (43.16 - 25.82 = 17.34). So the value of 1st round picks drops exponentially as you move away from the top of the draft, especially through the first 10 picks.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Actually, this NHL Draft Value Chart shows the opposite:

http://www.etwsports...alue-chart.html

 

The drop-off from picking 5th overall to 15th overall is 17.33 (= 60.49 - 43.16). A similar drop off from 15th would be to the 45th pick overall (43.16 - 25.82 = 17.34). So the value of 1st round picks drops exponentially as you move away from the top of the draft, especially through the first 10 picks.

 

If you take that chart as valid......Darcy would have been just about as well off getting a 2nd from Nashville as opposed to trading a 4th away to get their 1st. Interesting breakdown at least.

[deluca67]

If you take that chart as valid......Darcy would have been just about as well off getting a 2nd from Nashville as opposed to trading a 4th away to get their 1st. Interesting breakdown at least.

It's much like the Jimmy Johnson chart in football.

[TrueBlueGED]

If you take that chart as valid......Darcy would have been just about as well off getting a 2nd from Nashville as opposed to trading a 4th away to get their 1st. Interesting breakdown at least.

 

Maybe. Have to remember the 4th is in 2013, so it should be valued more like a 5th rounder this year.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

If this team hauls its way into the playoffs at its current rate, I could see them taking the first round to 6 or 7 games. They're just playing really good hockey and getting all the bounces.

 

Even if they make it, Miller will be so gassed that I think a series against any of the top teams would probably be done in 5. Even as they win, you get the feeling they are hanging on for dear life in a lot of these games.

 

IMO Ruff & Regier are not as safe as you and others want to believe. Missing the playoffs this year would have Pegula and Black considering it.

I want to believe that, from listening to Ted Black I just don't get the feeling that they would be willing to admit they were wrong by bringing back Regier and Ruff no matter if they missed the playoffs this year or next.

 

I'm with DeLuca. Black was flat out obnoxious about how GM and Coachforlife are safe. The Sabres are close enough now that I want them to get in. Judging by this board, the fans have showered them with all sorts of goodwill because something bigger than Corkum was actually done at the deadline. Black already feels justified.

 

If things turn down and they lose 3 of the next 4 or something like that.... I will root for utter and embarassing collapse so everyone has that to stew on over the offseason. As long as they have a real chance to get in I will root for them to win. Last night was a key game in my opinion. And if they make it in I will root for them to win the Cup, as unrealistic as those chances may be.

[LastPommerFan]

 

 

Even if they make it, Miller will be so gassed that I think a series against any of the top teams would probably be done in 5. Even as they win, you get the feeling they are hanging on for dear life in a lot of these games.

 

 

 

 

I'm with DeLuca. Black was flat out obnoxious about how GM and Coachforlife are safe. The Sabres are close enough now that I want them to get in. Judging by this board, the fans have showered them with all sorts of goodwill because something bigger than Corkum was actually done at the deadline. Black already feels justified.

 

If things turn down and they lose 3 of the next 4 or something like that.... I will root for utter and embarassing collapse so everyone has that to stew on over the offseason. As long as they have a real chance to get in I will root for them to win. Last night was a key game in my opinion. And if they make it in I will root for them to win the Cup, as unrealistic as those chances may be.

 

I know you said that if they won in Vancouver, it would change the possibilities according to the chart. I've tried to apply what you've taught us, but honestly, i'm not getting anywhere. What do you see as thw bet going forward, our are they outside of the predictability?

[spndnchz]

Even if they make it, Miller will be so gassed that I think a series against any of the top teams would probably be done in 5. Even as they win, you get the feeling they are hanging on for dear life in a lot of these games.

 

 

 

 

I'm with DeLuca. Black was flat out obnoxious about how GM and Coachforlife are safe. The Sabres are close enough now that I want them to get in. Judging by this board, the fans have showered them with all sorts of goodwill because something bigger than Corkum was actually done at the deadline. Black already feels justified.

 

If things turn down and they lose 3 of the next 4 or something like that.... I will root for utter and embarassing collapse so everyone has that to stew on over the offseason. As long as they have a real chance to get in I will root for them to win. Last night was a key game in my opinion. And if they make it in I will root for them to win the Cup, as unrealistic as those chances may be.

 

So if they lose, you'll say they suck and if they win, you'll jump on the bandwagon. Got it.

[deluca67]

So if they lose, you'll say they suck and if they win, you'll jump on the bandwagon. Got it.

"Band Wagons" has to be one off the lamest terms in sports. All it means is that you are to never question the team in any way. It's only purpose is to objectify those that don't believe the path you believe is the correct are some how lessor fans. There is not one person on this board who wouldn't rank a Sabres Stanley Cup Championship as one of their greatest experiences.

[Robviously]

If you take that chart as valid......Darcy would have been just about as well off getting a 2nd from Nashville as opposed to trading a 4th away to get their 1st. Interesting breakdown at least.

I think the trends that the chart shows are valid. I wouldn't use it to actually value my draft picks. The scale he outlines at the very outset is somewhat arbitrary -- 150 points for a superstar, 100 points for a top line forward or top 2 D, etc. How much different do the numbers look if you alter that scale? Maybe a superstar should be worth 200 points. Or at the other end, maybe a minor leaguer should be worth 0 points since you can pretty much pick one up any time you want without worrying about if you drafted one.

 

But the trends are valid. The higher up you are, the better your chances of landing a difference-maker.

[spndnchz]

"Band Wagons" has to be one off the lamest terms in sports. All it means is that you are to never question the team in any way. It's only purpose is to objectify those that don't believe the path you believe is the correct are some how lessor fans. There is not one person on this board who wouldn't rank a Sabres Stanley Cup Championship as one of their greatest experiences.

 

I don't think "bandwagons" know enough to comment on the inner workings or players on any team let alone question it. They stand on the sidelines until things look good and jump on to ride the wagon. In the end there will be people who say they were a fan all along when they win. In the end there will be those who say I told you so when they lose. One of the greatest experiences when we win the Cup will be waiting all these years and talking about never jumping off the wagon.

[JJFIVEOH]

So, you wouldn't be against having the draft order being reversed. Let teams like Detroit pick first every year. The better your record the higher you pick. After all, what's the difference, "picking higher in the first round often doesn't get you anything more."

 

Not really no. The exception being if you're one of the worst two or three teams. Go through the draft history, with the exception of probably just the first couple of picks, successful first rounders are hit or miss and it doesn't correlate with where in the first round they were picked.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

So if they lose, you'll say they suck and if they win, you'll jump on the bandwagon. Got it.

 

No Chz...

 

They are not anywhere near a championship team. They will not win the Stanley Cup this year, or any year with Darcy and Lindy at the helm for that matter. They have shown year after year that they are a soft and mentally fragile team that rides the positive waves when they happen, but once the first bit of real adversity hits, they fold faster than Martha Stewart's laundry.

 

Do you think the Sabres could win 16 games while playing 25 in a row with the pace and physicality of last night? Just about everyone on this board who was watching was praying for them to just hang on with a 3 goal lead. Is that the kind of confidence a championship team should instill?

 

I said in multiple posts leading up to last night that if they could beat Vancouver, I would at least open my eyes to them making the playoffs as it would signal a gap away from their year of pure stagnation and crap. I still don't think they will make the playoffs, but 25-30 % of a chance is better than 7-10% is it not.

 

You know......you want to paint a certain group of posters or myself as complainers or "not fans", or whatever your blessed little heart wants to believe instead of looking at the cold hard facts that the millionaires and billionaires you worship are flawed, imperfect human beings who often not only underachieve, but act in a cowardly manner on the ice or in their office......yet when I present positives about the team when they do play well or act in a manner more consistant with a good team, I am a bandwagoner.

 

What do you want Chz? Can't you accept that I actually WANT to win a Stanley Cup in Buffalo? Would that skew your life outlook so much if you had to admit that someone can be fan and actually be critical of failure, apathy, cronieism? What a novel concept....holding people accountable.

 

Maybe along with tempering my expectations from this hockey franchise, i should do the same with some posters. As if we haven't learned already from watching this group, sometimes being handed a letter to wear on your chest doesn't necessarily mean you play like it.

[JJFIVEOH]

Actually, this NHL Draft Value Chart shows the opposite:

http://www.etwsports...alue-chart.html

 

The drop-off from picking 5th overall to 15th overall is 17.33 (= 60.49 - 43.16). A similar drop off from 15th would be to the 45th pick overall (43.16 - 25.82 = 17.34). So the value of 1st round picks drops exponentially as you move away from the top of the draft, especially through the first 10 picks.

 

Right, the top 5 are obviously better. But did you notice the amount of 100 players in 6-10 compared to the rest of the first round? There are more 100 players lower in the first round. My point doesn't apply to the highest picks because IMO even if BFLO tanked I still don't think they'd be a bottom 3-5 team in the league. They're just not that bad unless they did it intentionally.

 

Even if they make it, Miller will be so gassed that I think a series against any of the top teams would probably be done in 5. Even as they win, you get the feeling they are hanging on for dear life in a lot of these games.

 

 

 

 

I'm with DeLuca. Black was flat out obnoxious about how GM and Coachforlife are safe. The Sabres are close enough now that I want them to get in. Judging by this board, the fans have showered them with all sorts of goodwill because something bigger than Corkum was actually done at the deadline. Black already feels justified.

 

If things turn down and they lose 3 of the next 4 or something like that.... I will root for utter and embarassing collapse so everyone has that to stew on over the offseason. As long as they have a real chance to get in I will root for them to win. Last night was a key game in my opinion. And if they make it in I will root for them to win the Cup, as unrealistic as those chances may be.

 

Well, at this point they really have no option to take it easy and prepare for the playoffs. They were gassed last year too, and to top it off with injuries they still came within an OT goal of going on to the 2nd round. Right now they don't have the choice of resting and getting ready for the playoffs, so it's either run for the bus, or make the rest of the season worthwhile. I really don't think they're holding on for dear life the last 3 games. They were solid in the first to periods of both Cali games. And somehow I get the feeling Lindy's strategy for the west coast trip is to stay away from wide open games because of the travel and rigors of 4 games in 6 nights.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I know you said that if they won in Vancouver, it would change the possibilities according to the chart. I've tried to apply what you've taught us, but honestly, i'm not getting anywhere. What do you see as thw bet going forward, our are they outside of the predictability?

 

I'll try.

 

If you look at the recent 20 games or so, they hit a bottom twice. They came off the bottom once and went right back down. After they started coming up again, the Anaheim win was where they last peaked out and headed back to the bottom. They beat San Jose which put them 1 up on that last run......by beating Vancouver, they jumped 2 ahead of last peak, and now are firmly above where they peaked last time. 1 game and back down could be a fluke.....2 games ahead of that last peak, and now those peaks become a basement instead of a ceiling.

 

Not only that, their clearly defined slope and channel had them ending around 85-86 points for the year. With those 2 wins, they pushed up and away from that level....like a stock breaking it's 200 day moving average.

 

Those are 2 strong technical signs they are on the upswing and may have some gas left. One of those and I wouldn't be as intrigued......both gives me a little hope.

 

Now they are a game away from the upper channel of their performance on the downward slope for the year. If they could win the next 2 in a row, then i would say they are closer to 50% to make it. There aren't any real barriers in their chart to prevent them from shooting up other than that top line of their channel.

 

A more realistic outcome is that they start bouncing around between their yearly average and that upward channel and end between 86 and 90 points. Up until now I figured them to finish tight around 85-86. It's still a lot to expect them to make the playoffs, but it is not a miracle anymore.

[spndnchz]

No Chz...

 

They are not anywhere near a championship team. They will not win the Stanley Cup this year, or any year with Darcy and Lindy at the helm for that matter. They have shown year after year that they are a soft and mentally fragile team that rides the positive waves when they happen, but once the first bit of real adversity hits, they fold faster than Martha Stewart's laundry.

 

Where have I said that this years team can win a Cup?

 

Do you think the Sabres could win 16 games while playing 25 in a row with the pace and physicality of last night? Just about everyone on this board who was watching was praying for them to just hang on with a 3 goal lead. Is that the kind of confidence a championship team should instill?

 

Winning 6 of the past 8 is a pretty good start.

 

I said in multiple posts leading up to last night that if they could beat Vancouver, I would at least open my eyes to them making the playoffs as it would signal a gap away from their year of pure stagnation and crap. I still don't think they will make the playoffs, but 25-30 % of a chance is better than 7-10% is it not.

 

Good for you.

 

You know......you want to paint a certain group of posters or myself as complainers or "not fans", or whatever your blessed little heart wants to believe instead of looking at the cold hard facts that the millionaires and billionaires you worship are flawed, imperfect human beings who often not only underachieve, but act in a cowardly manner on the ice or in their office......yet when I present positives about the team when they do play well or act in a manner more consistant with a good team, I am a bandwagoner.

 

Who exactly do I worship?

 

What do you want Chz? Can't you accept that I actually WANT to win a Stanley Cup in Buffalo? Would that skew your life outlook so much if you had to admit that someone can be fan and actually be critical of failure, apathy, cronieism? What a novel concept....holding people accountable.

 

What exactly does my life outlook have to do with you?

 

Maybe along with tempering my expectations from this hockey franchise, i should do the same with some posters. As if we haven't learned already from watching this group, sometimes being handed a letter to wear on your chest doesn't necessarily mean you play like it.

 

Maybe you should. You are so much better than me. I'm glad you're here. What in the world would I do without good ole Ghost in my life.

 

I'm not standing on some soap box here. To use your words.. I said in multiple posts what I want the franchise to do.

 

Oh, and one other thing. That wasn't me you saw on TV.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I'm not standing on some soap box here. To use your words.. I said in multiple posts what I want the franchise to do.

 

Here's the problem....I accept that a fan message board is going to lean towards the positive and the benefit of the doubt being given to "their" team. I accept the fact that at times, giving contrarian opinions, and doing so in a confident manner because of my unwavering certainty that there is an artificial limit placed on this franchise due to the makeup from top to bottom......that is going to ruffle some feathers....and I accept the extra work involved in trying to explain my viewpoints to those who may disagree but respect my views. If time allows and spirit provides, I also don't mind having a little fun and playing whack-a-mole with the posters who know full well where I am coming from, but can't bear to get upset at a team they spend so much of their time, money or energy on so it is more convienent to get upset with a detractor.

 

I accept all that. But what I don't accept is being told that I have any less of a right to cheer, boo, praise, or rip a new a-hole as compared to any other Sabre fan. The pompom waivers may frustrate me, but I understand. I will tell without question that I have no ties to any member of the Sabres organisation...from GM, player, coach, social media, usher, etc. I also have no conflict of interest when it comes to being in the media or promoting any website. I come here because I am from Buffalo, a hockey fan, and thus a Sabres fan. I can tell you full well though that over the years here, I have had to counter I don't know how many of the people I just described, as too have anyone else that has taken a stand over Status Quo. In a sense, the game is rigged against a critical fan who has no need to see any of the current actors with jobs in the industry, keep them. But the great thing is, it allows me to be honest. It allows me to say things that others wouldn't dare say because they need to keep their job, or keep friends with a drinking buddy, or keep free tickets rolling in. Buffalo is a small town, but I can respect the fact that people don't all have the luxury I do or someone else who is critical of the team does. But please respect the fact that we want to win a Stanley Cup just as badly as any other fan.

 

In the spirit of DeLuca I would rather you understand this than try and 1-up you at this point.

[spndnchz]

In the spirit of DeLuca I would rather you understand this than try and 1-up you at this point.

 

Gosh thanks for that. Whew.

 

I'm glad the game is rigged so that you can honest.

 

(waits ten minutes for long paragraph rebuttal)

 

Oh wait, Chinese is here.

[NowDoYouBelieve]

Here's the problem....I accept that a fan message board is going to lean towards the positive and the benefit of the doubt being given to "their" team. I accept the fact that at times, giving contrarian opinions, and doing so in a confident manner because of my unwavering certainty that there is an artificial limit placed on this franchise due to the makeup from top to bottom......that is going to ruffle some feathers....and I accept the extra work involved in trying to explain my viewpoints to those who may disagree but respect my views. If time allows and spirit provides, I also don't mind having a little fun and playing whack-a-mole with the posters who know full well where I am coming from, but can't bear to get upset at a team they spend so much of their time, money or energy on so it is more convienent to get upset with a detractor.

 

I accept all that. But what I don't accept is being told that I have any less of a right to cheer, boo, praise, or rip a new a-hole as compared to any other Sabre fan. The pompom waivers may frustrate me, but I understand. I will tell without question that I have no ties to any member of the Sabres organisation...from GM, player, coach, social media, usher, etc. I also have no conflict of interest when it comes to being in the media or promoting any website. I come here because I am from Buffalo, a hockey fan, and thus a Sabres fan. I can tell you full well though that over the years here, I have had to counter I don't know how many of the people I just described, as too have anyone else that has taken a stand over Status Quo. In a sense, the game is rigged against a critical fan who has no need to see any of the current actors with jobs in the industry, keep them. But the great thing is, it allows me to be honest. It allows me to say things that others wouldn't dare say because they need to keep their job, or keep friends with a drinking buddy, or keep free tickets rolling in. Buffalo is a small town, but I can respect the fact that people don't all have the luxury I do or someone else who is critical of the team does. But please respect the fact that we want to win a Stanley Cup just as badly as any other fan.

 

In the spirit of DeLuca I would rather you understand this than try and 1-up you at this point.

 

There's a separate disconnect too. Some fans (and it seems you're one) have a singular desire...to see a Stanley Cup. Everything else is secondary. I respect that.

 

Other fans, myself included, would love to see a Stanley Cup but still derive a particular enjoyment from a regular season win (or even a hard fought loss). The kind of enjoyment that stands on its own two feet.

 

And maybe it's petty, but when you're this type of fan on a message board, having a good time after a win, and a certain segment of that population tries to convince you that win was meaningless...it puts a damper on the fun. Sports are fun because there's the immediate emotional response and then the analytical big picture stuff regarding championships. I find greater meaning in the immediacy.