Mitchell Marner, Unrestricted Free Agency

[LGR4GM]

Well... we've come to it. The question of Mitch Marner and would or should we try to lure him to Buffalo is open for conversation.

My personal take, if you can manage to get him at 12 million (will probably cost 13-14) you pull that trigger. I think the playoffs woes are a symptom of Toronto, not Marner. It's probably a pipe dream. 

How to make it work is another question but for now, I'd like to find a way. A 100pt player who's garnered Selke consideration... add him and figure out the rest later.

Edited 3 hours ago by LGR4GM
Spelling

[Carmel Corn]

Seems like there’s enough teams with cap space that a bidding war could ensue.  I agree that $12M is not enough for Buffalo to get him.  Pegula and Adams will look for cheaper options IMHO

[Porous Five Hole]

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/3289328
 

I agree with you on my level of want for a Selke considered 100 pt player.
However, gambling odds say we don’t have to spend too much time on this lol

Blackhawks+275

Flyers+400

Penguins+500

Mammoth+550

…

Sabres+3300

BlueJackets+3300

Oilers+4500

Panthers+5000

Jets+5000

Bruins+6000

Senators+6000

I don’t get very deep into the weeds of gambling odds on prop bets, but this seems telling as to how unlikely it would be. 

[Pimlach]

It will take really big money for a player that so far does not elevate his team in the playoffs.   

It is not fair to lay all the playoff blame on him, as pointed out he is 0.9 ppg player in the playoffs, and 1.13 ppg in regular season.   

He has two 30 goal seasons, and four 90+ point season.   Will he as a winger get all those assists playing without Mathew and Nylander?  

I suspect he will not even consider Buffalo.  

[JohnC]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Well... we've come to it. The question of Mitch Marner and would or should we try to lure him to Buffalo is open for conversation.

My personal take, if you can manage to get him at 12 million (will probably cost 13-14) you pull that trigger. I think the playoffs woes are a symptom of Toronto, not Marner. It's probably a pipe dream. 

How to make it work is another question but for now, I'd like to find a way. A 100pt player who's garnered Selke consideration... add him and figure out the rest later.

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/hosts/sabres-live

The Darren Dreger segment on WGR's Sabre Live Show discusses the possibility of Marner and Byram trades. This is a 15 minute segment. Dreger noted that Marner has some police protection at his house because of some idiot fan harassment. So a family security consideration might be a factor for playing somewhere else. My sense of the Byram scenario is that he will dealt. If Byram is resistant to signing because it might not be in his long term contract interest, then he will be moved. Dreger pointed out that KA would prefer to sign him, but it comes down to what does the player want to do. 

If Buffalo was a credible organization and not known for its generational dysfunction, it would make sense for Marner to come here because of its location close to Toronto, his hometown. It's apparent that our rancid reputation (well deserved) is a significant handicap in attracting talent. 

[pi2000]

I like Marner, but Buffalo has enough scoring.

They need players who can defend (both forwards and defensemen).

==============================================================
Team  Player                   TRpm    GP   +/-   exp+/-  %min
BUF Jacob Bryson              -7.47    48    -9   -1.53   15.3
BUF Owen Power                -9.57    79   -13   -3.43   34.3
BUF Dylan Cozens             -10.93    61   -13   -2.07   20.7
BUF Sam Lafferty             -13.66    60   -15   -1.34   13.4
BUF Beck Malenstyn           -14.36    76   -16   -1.64   16.4
BUF Jack Quinn               -15.79    74   -18   -2.21   22.1
==============================================================

Instead of giving Marner $12mil find a partner for Power and upgrade Quinn, Malenstyn and Lafferty. 

[inkman]

Given how toxic it has become for Marner the last few seasons due to the insanity that is the Toronto hockey market, I could see him signing a max deal with someone like the Mammoth and disappear into the oblivion.  

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, inkman said:

Given how toxic it has become for Marner the last few seasons due to the insanity that is the Toronto hockey market, I could see him signing a max deal with someone like the Mammoth and disappear into the oblivion.  

Why not sign with Buffalo just to #### with the Loaf fans that now hate their "God?"

(Yeah, it won't happen.  But it would be fun if it did.)

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

It will take really big money for a player that so far does not elevate his team in the playoffs.   

It is not fair to lay all the playoff blame on him, as pointed out he is 0.9 ppg player in the playoffs, and 1.13 ppg in regular season.   

He has two 30 goal seasons, and four 90+ point season.   Will he as a winger get all those assists playing without Mathew and Nylander?  

I suspect he will not even consider Buffalo.  

Tage Thompson has the most 5v5 goals in the NHL over the last 2 years. Instead of viewing it your way, I view it as a chance to make our pp better which Marner is sure to do. 

Edited 3 hours ago by LGR4GM

[Ctaeth]

He would be a great fit on the Sabres.  We have a lot of shooters and someone that can create some space would help support those guys.  And he is great defensively. 

It just feels like a pipe dream.  Hope they still try to get him though

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

I like Marner, but Buffalo has enough scoring.

They need players who can defend (both forwards and defensemen).

==============================================================
Team  Player                   TRpm    GP   +/-   exp+/-  %min
BUF Jacob Bryson              -7.47    48    -9   -1.53   15.3
BUF Owen Power                -9.57    79   -13   -3.43   34.3
BUF Dylan Cozens             -10.93    61   -13   -2.07   20.7
BUF Sam Lafferty             -13.66    60   -15   -1.34   13.4
BUF Beck Malenstyn           -14.36    76   -16   -1.64   16.4
BUF Jack Quinn               -15.79    74   -18   -2.21   22.1
==============================================================

Instead of giving Marner $12mil find a partner for Power and upgrade Quinn, Malenstyn and Lafferty. 

Mitch Marner finished 3rd in Selke voting last season. What nonsense. 

Also, I can't even fathom arguing but to sign Marner because we need to upgrade the 4th ***** line. Not to mention, Marner is an upgrade over Quinn.

Edited 3 hours ago by LGR4GM

[Night Train]

Overpaid and doesn't play D.

He's a perfect fit ! 

 

[Pimlach]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Tage Thompson has the most 5v5 goals in the NHL over the last 2 years. Instead of viewing it your way, I view it as a chance to make our pp better which Marner is sure to do. 

No doubt he can make the pp better, and he will make the team better.  The cap increases from $88M to $95M

$12M+ is going to be a tough target if we are also going to improve defense and goaltending.   

If Levi emerges next season we catch a big break but its a gamble to count on that.  

[Pimlach]

22 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Mitch Marner finished 3rd in Selke voting last season. What nonsense. 

Also, I can't even fathom arguing but to sign Marner because we need to upgrade the 4th ***** line. Not to mention, Marner is an upgrade over Quinn.

Correct.

Marner is an upgrade over Quinn in every phase of the game.  He would improve the two-way play of the top line and bring in playmaking.  This pushes someone else to the second line, and pushes another player down to the 3rd line.    Three lines could get better if there was a way to sign him.  

Quinn could be packaged for help at goalie, defense, etc.  

[Weave]

17 minutes ago, Night Train said:

Overpaid and doesn't play D.

He's a perfect fit ! 

 

Umm, Selke votes and he doesn’t play D?

[Pimlach]

17 minutes ago, Night Train said:

Overpaid and doesn't play D.

He's a perfect fit ! 

 

But he does play solid defense from the RW position, he is a playmaker, and he can score goals and take face-offs.  

[LTS]

Marner totally doesn't play defense..

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs/latest-news/i-enjoy-it-back-there-maple-leafs-mitch-marner-shines-on-both-ends-of-the-ice-scores-overtime-winner-after-taking-shifts-on-defense

Derp.

[shrader]

49 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/3289328
 

I agree with you on my level of want for a Selke considered 100 pt player.
However, gambling odds say we don’t have to spend too much time on this lol

Blackhawks+275

Flyers+400

Penguins+500

Mammoth+550

…

Sabres+3300

BlueJackets+3300

Oilers+4500

Panthers+5000

Jets+5000

Bruins+6000

Senators+6000

I don’t get very deep into the weeds of gambling odds on prop bets, but this seems telling as to how unlikely it would be. 

I'm not a gambler but I'd consider Columbus with those numbers.  They still have all the Gaudreau money and they could be looking for a big piece (like they were with him originally) to build on their surprising season last year.

[thewookie1]

I have 1 offer

Offer him 98mil on a 7 year deal with 28mil deferred

It ends up at 7x14mil, 4mil deferred each year to be paid 7 years into the future. Drops cap hit to 12.75mil

 

As in 4mil deferred year 1 is paid in year 8 and so on.

Edited 2 hours ago by thewookie1

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

No doubt he can make the pp better, and he will make the team better.  The cap increases from $88M to $95M

$12M+ is going to be a tough target if we are also going to improve defense and goaltending.   

If Levi emerges next season we catch a big break but its a gamble to count on that.  

If Buffalo had a better reputation as a well functioning organization and a seriously competitive team, western NY would be an appealing location for many players on the market due to its proximity to southern Ontario and Toronto. That area is where a lot of players grew up and where a lot of players reside in the offseason. However, based on the history of the Pegula era of ownership it's sad to acknowledge that Buffalo is one of the top locations listed on "No Trade Clauses NTC" for many of the upper tier players. And that shouldn't be a surprise

It would be difficult to fit in a potential Mariner contract. But that's not to say that it couldn't be done with some creative maneuvering by a capable GM, something that all franchises do. This franchise created a big hole for itself. It needs to be more intelligently  run for an extended period of time to climb out of it. 

I don't realisticallt see Marner coming here. But wouldn't it be exciting to see Marner on a top line with Tage and Tuch. 

[Pimlach]

44 minutes ago, JohnC said:

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/hosts/sabres-live

The Darren Dreger segment on WGR's Sabre Live Show discusses the possibility of Marner and Byram trades. This is a 15 minute segment. Dreger noted that Marner has some police protection at his house because of some idiot fan harassment. So a family security consideration might be a factor for playing somewhere else. My sense of the Byram scenario is that he will dealt. If Byram is resistant to signing because it might not be in his long term contract interest, then he will be moved. Dreger pointed out that KA would prefer to sign him, but it comes down to what does the player want to do. 

If Buffalo was a credible organization and not known for its generational dysfunction, it would make sense for Marner to come here because of its location close to Toronto, his hometown. It's apparent that our rancid reputation (well deserved) is a significant handicap in attracting talent. 

The Sabres hockey organization deserves to be criticized for the on ice product, but the City of Buffalo has been a friendly place for players to play in.  Both hockey and football players have an easy time finding good housing, good schools, easy commutes, relatively low cost of living, easy press to deal with, and nice people dying for a winning team again.  

The City of Good Neighbors is not just a slogan.  

What will hold Marner back is he has a chance to go somewhere and win more.  Why gamble on the Sabres?  

[Scottysabres]

The only way he comes here is if he gets paid. I don’t think he’s worth it, offense isn’t the Sabres problem. Consistency, defense and putting a full 60 in each game is as far as I can tell. Marner doesn’t add to any of that, yes or no?

[DarthEbriate]

I put it in one of the many other threads, but if he's willing to embrace the hatred and join the Sabres out of spite/anger at the Leafs, then he's welcome to join. He gets a chance to one-up them and stick it to them on an annual basis, but still stay close to the area. Alas, mind tricks don't work for Sabres, only money!

The issue is... why would any top-UFA choose to sign with Adams? The Pegula-new-owner-shine and big money that enticed Leino/Ehrhoff/Moulson and initially ROR has long since evaporated and for all good reasons. All you get now are 1-year trade-me Taylor Hall deals (and Zucker although he re-signed, the concept was the same).

Would he make the team better? Yes. Does signing him basically kick Tuch long-term-extension off the table? Also, yes. It forces JJP to be bridged. And where does TNT play then, left wing? So is JJP one-and-done with arbitration? Is it a long-term win to have Marner and still only a bunch of unproven centers and ever-injured Norris in the top 6?

It's a fun conversation.

[shrader]

There's so many whys flying around in here.  The answer is always the same... $$$

[PerreaultForever]

People talk about Marner's Selke votes and that he does play 2 way hockey but I'm curious as to what his defensive stats are in the playoffs? To my eyes every year that core 4 gets shut down offensively in the playoffs when it gets tough but also fails defensively and allows goals against. One year the worst guy was Marner, another year it was Matthews. One year Nylander was good another he was invisible. This year I personally thought Matthews was the worst of them but they never delivered as a whole and Marner was part of that. His size makes him less effective come playoff time as well. I don't want to follow that model. 

Would Marner get us into the playoffs? Maybe. Would we get past round 1? Not a chance. 

I'd be hesitant if I was GM to make Marner a plan as I suspect if we talked to him his agent would just use us as leverage for another deal and we'd be left hanging. So it would be one good offer and if it was not taken I'd move to plan B right away. But if I was GM Marner wouldn't be my plan anyway. As I've said elsewhere, I'd rather give the money to Bennett and Marchand if I was going to go to spend crazy. I wouldn't be shocked if the Leafs are thinking that very same thing.