Thorny Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 https://buffalonews.com/playoffs-is-the-expectation/article_8b0b754f-4af5-54a2-ae56-0e69a0250198.html “Next year, playoffs is the expectation. We all believe that we will be there, and we know what it takes now." Sure sounds like playoffs were the expectation. Unless there’s a massive disconnect. Disconnect between players and management? Mehhhhhhhhhh wouldn’t worry about it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerreaultForever Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Thorny said: That’s exactly the point. It takes a lot of incompetence. Manual, human, incompetence. Choice. Potential for better. So you are still a believer? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 4 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said: So you are still a believer? It’s not a matter of belief it’s a matter of fact: I’m not making an argument. We missed the playoffs by a solitary point last year. I can mathematically conclude it is well within this franchise’s ability to field a playoff roster 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerreaultForever Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Just now, Thorny said: It’s not a matter of belief it’s a matter of fact: I’m not making an argument. We missed the playoffs by a solitary point last year. I can mathematically conclude it is well within this franchise’s ability to field a playoff roster That whole "one point out" argument has many flaws I hope you realize that. Part of it's presumption is of course, that all the teams around us stay the same or get worse. They don't. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 (edited) 18 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said: That whole "one point out" argument has many flaws I hope you realize that. Part of it's presumption is of course, that all the teams around us stay the same or get worse. They don't. I was merely responding to this: 5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said: Well yes, ultimately we're left with the question, is KA completely incompetent, or are his hands so tied and he's so limited by how few people will come here that basically no GM could do the job. Either way we are screwed and ultimately the fault lies with Pegula for letting this franchise grind down into a bottom feeder. It was a prime destination once upon a time being so close to the border and the big Ontario hockey markets. Maybe I’m taking it too literally but my point is that coming within one point last year PROVES it’s reasonably possible for a GM to field a playoff team here. Otherwise, you’d be arguing that you are certain there’s nothing we could have theoretically, possibly have done differently last year to bridge that one point gap. And I know someone wouldn’t possible make an argument like that Edited January 26 by Thorny 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerreaultForever Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, Thorny said: I was merely responding to this: Maybe I’m taking it too literally but my point is that coming within one point last year PROVES it’s reasonably possible for a GM to field a playoff team here. Otherwise, you’d be arguing that you are certain there’s nothing we could have theoretically, possibly have done differently last year to bridge that one point gap. And I know someone wouldn’t possible make an argument like that Well okay fair enough. I suppose I'm always locked on building playoff sustainability and not just some squeak in fluke early playoff exit thing. If we'd have somehow gotten in and one point over Florida I'd have bet anything we'd have been swept 4 straight (5 with some lucky game goalie thing) and the Bruins would have maybe won a cup (or at least been in the final with Vegas). So the Bruins haters here should probably feel good about that 🙂 Most of the off season talk around here was how Levi would save everything and be Patrick Roy. Lots of instant Levi believers here and I think KA was one of them. Folly. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Lee Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 6 hours ago, Thorny said: https://buffalonews.com/playoffs-is-the-expectation/article_8b0b754f-4af5-54a2-ae56-0e69a0250198.html “Next year, playoffs is the expectation. We all believe that we will be there, and we know what it takes now." Sure sounds like playoffs were the expectation. Unless there’s a massive disconnect. Disconnect between players and management? Mehhhhhhhhhh wouldn’t worry about it There was absolutely a disconnect between a group of players who felt they were ready to take the next step and a GM who, while not actively trying to sabotage progress, was not quite ready to commit to “taking the next step” as the sort of goal for which falling short is considered failure. I think the decision by Adams to not address the shortcomings on the coaching staff, in net and on forward actually had two separate negative impacts. The first is obvious. 1.) Physically we are just not good enough. Too young, too inexperienced, too lacking in natural grit. We physically don’t have all of the needed elements to consistently thrive over an 82 game season. 2.) Psychologically we are fragile. This ties back to number one (youth, inexperience, lack of a physical presence), but was exacerbated by the decision to not address obvious needs and to instead roll into the season with an 18 year old at forward and to start the year giving 4 straight starts to a young goalie who didn’t even have a good preseason. The message was clear, while we aren’t trying to lose we are also not doing everything that we can to win. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Lee Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 On the coaching front, I was looking back at some other NHL coaches and their backgrounds and who they had on staff early in their careers. Jon Cooper’s first full season as head coach of the Lightning was 2013-14. Rick Bowness was added to his staff as an assistant that year. Bowness served as an assistant under Cooper for 5 seasons. At that point of his career, Bowness had 25 years of NHL coaching experience including 6 as a head coach. I will credit Adams in that he has surrounded himself in the front office with some people who have been considered for NHL GM jobs (Karmanos, Ventura). If Granato is back next year, he needs to be willing to add someone to his staff who could replace him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letsfixthis Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Get a legit NHL goalie. We see what happens when this team gets good goaltending. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoPuckYourself Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 The moment last season where Adams opted for development over playoffs (Which to me was the trade deadline), I immediately wanted a new GM. I think getting the to the playoffs would have been a huge boost of confidence and took the monkey off their back and didn't have to go into this season thinking about playoffs or bust, they would have already known what it takes to get there imo. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CallawaySabres Posted January 26 Author Report Share Posted January 26 I would love to know exactly how crazy the odds are for an NHL team to miss the playoffs 14 years in a row. I would be willing to bet that they are lower than winning a Stanley Cup at least once during that timeframe. The level of incompetence in this organization has actually reached a point which is almost impossible to duplicate. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjd1001 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 (edited) 31 minutes ago, CallawaySabres said: I would love to know exactly how crazy the odds are for an NHL team to miss the playoffs 14 years in a row. I would be willing to bet that they are lower than winning a Stanley Cup at least once during that timeframe. The level of incompetence in this organization has actually reached a point which is almost impossible to duplicate. I actually worked that out a while ago mathematically a while ago... The odds of winning a stanley cup are pretty simple. 32 teams in the leage, 14 times the cup is awarded. Simple odds are 43.7% a team will win a cup in a 14 year period. 1 in 2.28. Odds of missing the playoffs 14 years in a row? Simple odds are .0045%. Or 1 in about 22,000. A lot of things can determine your odds for making/missing the playoffs. For example, the Bills drought...much of it was contributed to by Brady being in the division, but in Hockey its different. Statistically, you can say you have a 50% chance of making or missing the playoffs in a given year. For any time, after 2 years, the 'odds' are 25% you miss both years, 25% you make it both years, and 50% chance you miss one year and make it the next...and so on and so on. Now, with expansion, the odds change slightly. It hasn't always been EXACTLY 50%, sometime you had a BETTER chance (beginning of the drought, 8 of 15 teams in the conference made the playoffs, so your odds to make it were even better than they are now. So, what are the pure statistical odds that any hockey team would take a 12 year period and not make the playoffs even once? 0.018% chance. Or, in other words, a 1 in 5,531 chance that, over the last 12 years, any team in the Sabres division/conference would not make the playoffs one time. If you 'simulated' an average team through 12 seasons, 5,531 times, only ONE of those times, on average, would a team miss 12 years in a row. If the Sabres miss this year, with half the conference making the playoffs again, the odds of missing 13 years in a row would be 1 in 11,062. Chances of missing 14 years in a row? 1 in about 22,000. Or 0.0045% If you could find a sportsbook to give you odds that ANY team, starting today, would miss the playoffs for the next 14 years.....you would likely win about $2 million dollars on a $100 bet. So yes, they made the decision to tank, but again, those are the numbers for ANY team with a few years of 8 out of 15 teams making the playoffs and most other years 8 or 16 making it. Hockey Heaven? The sole reason for them existing is to win the Stanley cup? You would think that even if you TRIED to be that bad it would be hard to do so. That can't be all bad luck..or it can't be a new owner 'learning curve', there has to be a whole lot of ineptitude in there. Edited January 26 by mjd1001 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CallawaySabres Posted January 26 Author Report Share Posted January 26 Wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 18 hours ago, Thorny said: No, next year would be year 4 post Eichel. One can’t reasonably conclude 21-22 wasn’t the first sans-Eichel year. He didn’t play a game for us and was never in the equation. The goal wasn’t to win that year, remember, it was the first development year, the first year KA’s plan was being implemented from the draft, through the offseason and into the season. Why on god’s green earth would that year not count? The fact Eichel wasn’t traded until the season actually started is irrelevant because the ETA of the return didn’t matter relative to the results that year. If that year wasn’t the first year of KA implementing his plan (trading Jack was part of that plan!!), what the hell was it? The plan was *inclusive* of trading Jack. There was no obstacle present to KA to implementing his plan in 21-22: he did exactly that. We are talking Terry Pegula here 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 5 hours ago, CallawaySabres said: Wow I think @mjd1001 is an Actuarial Scientist. Either that or he just made it all up off the top of his head. Like mosts stats are. (insert that winkie thingie here) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ska-T Chitown Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 8 hours ago, mjd1001 said: I actually worked that out a while ago mathematically a while ago... The odds of winning a stanley cup are pretty simple. 32 teams in the leage, 14 times the cup is awarded. Simple odds are 43.7% a team will win a cup in a 14 year period. 1 in 2.28. Odds of missing the playoffs 14 years in a row? Simple odds are .0045%. Or 1 in about 22,000. A lot of things can determine your odds for making/missing the playoffs. For example, the Bills drought...much of it was contributed to by Brady being in the division, but in Hockey its different. Statistically, you can say you have a 50% chance of making or missing the playoffs in a given year. For any time, after 2 years, the 'odds' are 25% you miss both years, 25% you make it both years, and 50% chance you miss one year and make it the next...and so on and so on. Now, with expansion, the odds change slightly. It hasn't always been EXACTLY 50%, sometime you had a BETTER chance (beginning of the drought, 8 of 15 teams in the conference made the playoffs, so your odds to make it were even better than they are now. So, what are the pure statistical odds that any hockey team would take a 12 year period and not make the playoffs even once? 0.018% chance. Or, in other words, a 1 in 5,531 chance that, over the last 12 years, any team in the Sabres division/conference would not make the playoffs one time. If you 'simulated' an average team through 12 seasons, 5,531 times, only ONE of those times, on average, would a team miss 12 years in a row. If the Sabres miss this year, with half the conference making the playoffs again, the odds of missing 13 years in a row would be 1 in 11,062. Chances of missing 14 years in a row? 1 in about 22,000. Or 0.0045% If you could find a sportsbook to give you odds that ANY team, starting today, would miss the playoffs for the next 14 years.....you would likely win about $2 million dollars on a $100 bet. So yes, they made the decision to tank, but again, those are the numbers for ANY team with a few years of 8 out of 15 teams making the playoffs and most other years 8 or 16 making it. Hockey Heaven? The sole reason for them existing is to win the Stanley cup? You would think that even if you TRIED to be that bad it would be hard to do so. That can't be all bad luck..or it can't be a new owner 'learning curve', there has to be a whole lot of ineptitude in there. I don't disagree with the pure - pull a card from the deck methodology used above. Those are good hard numbers. The interesting bits to me are the 'soft' numbers. Since the 1990-1991 season (32 champs because none in 2005) - only 16 teams have won the cup. The 'hard' numbers have to assume "all things being equal" because there is no way to account for all the variations each year. I will see if I have enough time and bourbon this weekend to put together a spreadsheet of how many playoff appearances each franchise has since 1990-1991. I won't be truly meaningful, but I suspect that 1/3 of the teams will account for half or more of the slots. I am not sure how a long-term adjustment factor could be developed - or even a short term one to account for things like you could tell the Sharks did not really have a realistic 50% chance at making the playoffs this year. One would guess, however, that a team would "average out" over a 14 year period to be closer to 50% each year than not. <shruggy thing here> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 22 hours ago, Sabres Fan in NS said: I think @mjd1001 is an Actuarial Scientist. Either that or he just made it all up off the top of his head. Like mosts stats are. (insert that winkie thingie here) I am an applied mathematician. His calculation is how I would do it. I would absolutely believe that @mjd1001 is an actuarial scientist based on the presentation. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjd1001 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 43 minutes ago, Marvin said: I am an applied mathematician. His calculation is how I would do it. I would absolutely believe that @mjd1001 is an actuarial scientist based on the presentation. Actually, mostly been in retail my whole life, with a few times dabbling in economics (major in college). I just like numbers and statistics. Math was/is always my favorite subject..as long as it deals with numbers. When it comes to calculus and beyond, never interested. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klos1963 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 On 1/25/2024 at 5:54 PM, Thorny said: He’s tradable. The “poor buffalo, no one will accept a trade here (because of our own doing (look at Winnipeg), leaving out the fact half the league does not have a NTC and we are only asking the team to overcome to the extent of not being *anomalifically* bad ie it’s zero excuse)” thing goes both ways: as long as the contract is reasonable, and Cozens’ is, teams will perceive him to be suffering from the “Buffalo tax” where he’d be likely to flourish in a better environment- and I feel like the proof has been in the pudding on that Not advocating to trade him specifically, just sayin’ I never said anything about players not wanting to be traded here, but I think that's true. Why would any player want to be in Buffalo? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjd1001 Posted January 29 Report Share Posted January 29 4 hours ago, klos1963 said: I never said anything about players not wanting to be traded here, but I think that's true. Why would any player want to be in Buffalo? To answer your question why would anyone want to be here? They want to play "close to home" (I'm pretty sure I read a couple places more NHL players are from the Metro Toronto area than any other city by far). They want their family and extended family to be able to come to games, BUT they do not want to take less money in Toronto than in Buffalo (the big 4/5 in TO took all the money) or they just don't want the trouble/aggravaton of playing in that market (some players love it, others hate it). Now, this is not saying that people WANT to come to Buffalo, but there might be players who fit that description that would want to be here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klos1963 Posted January 29 Report Share Posted January 29 24 minutes ago, mjd1001 said: To answer your question why would anyone want to be here? They want to play "close to home" (I'm pretty sure I read a couple places more NHL players are from the Metro Toronto area than any other city by far). They want their family and extended family to be able to come to games, BUT they do not want to take less money in Toronto than in Buffalo (the big 4/5 in TO took all the money) or they just don't want the trouble/aggravaton of playing in that market (some players love it, others hate it). Now, this is not saying that people WANT to come to Buffalo, but there might be players who fit that description that would want to be here. i would prefer people want to come here because it's the Sabres, not because it's closer to home. If they want to win, they won't come here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted January 29 Report Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, klos1963 said: i would prefer people want to come here because it's the Sabres, not because it's closer to home. If they want to win, they won't come here. People said that about the Bills too. And it was true for about 18 or 19 years. But it isn't true anymore. Get the team to start winning (making the playoffs and actually winning at least a round) and players will want to be in Buffalo again. Until they start winning again, no, most players will not want to be in Buffalo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted January 29 Report Share Posted January 29 8 hours ago, Taro T said: People said that about the Bills too. And it was true for about 18 or 19 years. But it isn't true anymore. Get the team to start winning (making the playoffs and actually winning at least a round) and players will want to be in Buffalo again. Until they start winning again, no, most players will not want to be in Buffalo. And that’s rub, innit? We’re an ongoing case study into how difficult it is to start winning when two avenues to team building are essentially closed to you because you aren’t winning. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatorman0519 Posted January 29 Report Share Posted January 29 On 1/26/2024 at 10:13 AM, CallawaySabres said: I would love to know exactly how crazy the odds are for an NHL team to miss the playoffs 14 years in a row. I would be willing to bet that they are lower than winning a Stanley Cup at least once during that timeframe. The level of incompetence in this organization has actually reached a point which is almost impossible to duplicate. Been saying the same thing. What we are witnessing is an all time historical outlier of ineptitude. Doesn’t look like it’s changing anytime soon. That’s what is crazier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atoq Posted January 29 Report Share Posted January 29 You all need to be more patient. It's only fair to give Matt Ellis a few more years to learn how to coach the power play. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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