Sabres Prospect Updates 23-24

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, ska-T Chitown said:

This sorta baffles me ... he was nearly as productive (11-19-30 in 71 games) as Quinn (14-23-37 in 75) Peterka (12-20-32 in 77) when he was 18 while they were 20/21 and people (not everyone, I know) had trouble hiding their boners after the Quinn/Peterka rookie years ...

You missed my point regarding Benson's play in his rookie season. As a full-time player his offensive stats were not impressive. That's a fact. I wasn't factoring in his age because that wasn't the issue. My central point was that despite his production I still felt that he played well and never was a liability. 

Hopefully, you are now unbaffled. 

[Brawndo]

52 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Interesting.  I'm kinda skeptical that they'll trade any D prospects though, and that they'll trade Johnson in particular.

I doubt they will trade a D prospect because Johnson is the one who would fetch the best return, and even then I don't think the return would be sufficient.

Also, I think KA had to make a pretty compelling sale to Johnson, who was only weeks away from being a UFA.  I don't think it would look good to trade him one year later.

IMHO if they trade a prospect, it will be one of the forwards -- probably Kulich or Savoie, as those are the 2 that I'd guess will return the most value in trade.

 

I agree -- I think the most likely outcome is that Johnson is #8 after camp, with Bryson #7, and that Johnson spends most of the year playing in Rochester, which is what he should be doing unless there are a few injuries on D in Buffalo.

Actually he didn’t. Buffalo was always his priority based on his relationship with Nathan Paetsch. He wanted to enjoy his college graduation and spend some time with family and friends that was the delay in his signing.

The addition of Byram changes the dynamic of the defense corps as that is another left handed puck moving defender. RJ might like an another opportunity where there is clearer pathway to a regular NHL job. 

For the right deal, Adams does not hesitate to move him 

 

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

What Benson produced was unremarkable for a middle-six NHL forward, somewhat remarkable for an 18-year-old, and almost unheard of for an 18-year-old picked outside the top 10.

Really curious to see if he can make a Peterka-style jump, because his production was similar to Peterka's rookie year and his overall game more reliable than Peterka's rookie year.

I think Benson's "jump" will be in year 3 or 4. Likely when he's around 21. 

I will not be surprised if he takes a backwards step next year and it won't worry me as I see a bright future. He might not. We shall see how he adjusts to what Ruff brings, but I am expecting a more structured style of play and young guys usually have some issues with that initially. 

[JohnC]

26 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I think Benson's "jump" will be in year 3 or 4. Likely when he's around 21. 

I will not be surprised if he takes a backwards step next year and it won't worry me as I see a bright future. He might not. We shall see how he adjusts to what Ruff brings, but I am expecting a more structured style of play and young guys usually have some issues with that initially. 

Neither of us know whether Benson is going to take a quantum leap forward next season. But for a player who was so young, I didn't witness him last season fading as the season grinded on. In fact, it was the opposite. I thought he played better at the end of the season than the beginning of the season because he seemed to comfortably adapt to the tougher NHL game. I'm not predicting a quantum leap forward in his play, but he should be better with a season experience and an offseason to prepare for this upcoming season. 

As far as his ability to adjust to a tougher style of play that Lindy will require compared to what Granato tolerated, I would say that he was one of our more responsible players from a checking standpoint in both zones and from a willingness to have a net presence in our offensive zone. My point is that maybe some other players will have trouble adjusting to a Lindy coached team, but he shouldn't have any problem adapting to the new coach. 

[K-9]

43 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I think Benson's "jump" will be in year 3 or 4. Likely when he's around 21. 

I will not be surprised if he takes a backwards step next year and it won't worry me as I see a bright future. He might not. We shall see how he adjusts to what Ruff brings, but I am expecting a more structured style of play and young guys usually have some issues with that initially. 

Benson was perhaps our most structurally sound player on the team, so I think he would embrace whatever structured style Lindy wishes to employ.

[Flashsabre]

3 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Benson was perhaps our most structurally sound player on the team, so I think he would embrace whatever structured style Lindy wishes to employ.

Yes Benson didn’t play in the NHL all year at 18 because of his offensive production. He is just so smart all over the ice that he can be effective defensively in the NHL until the offence kicks in. It looked at the end of last year that it was starting to pop.

[Derrico]

On 5/15/2024 at 12:23 AM, thewookie1 said:

Komarov and Savoie are probably the two prospects I least want to move at this time. Both have shown great potential through their play in the playoffs.

TBF that’s probably the time they have max value in a trade.  

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

I think Benson's "jump" will be in year 3 or 4. Likely when he's around 21. 

I will not be surprised if he takes a backwards step next year and it won't worry me as I see a bright future. He might not. We shall see how he adjusts to what Ruff brings, but I am expecting a more structured style of play and young guys usually have some issues with that initially. 

Looks like others have already responded, but I would be shocked if Benson struggles with structure because his game is so naturally structured.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he slides a bit either, but I think his “slide” will be more along the nature of Power’s: kinda stagnant overall, but with higher expectations amplifying the warts during the downs, both for observers and for himself.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Looks like others have already responded, but I would be shocked if Benson struggles with structure because his game is so naturally structured.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he slides a bit either, but I think his “slide” will be more along the nature of Power’s: kinda stagnant overall, but with higher expectations amplifying the warts during the downs, both for observers and for himself.

Yep.  Year 2 is when these guys start to get expected to go outside their comfort zones (though honestly not sure just what that would be in Benson's case) and with that expectations rise.

Really looking forward to seeing how both Benson and Quinn handle their 2nd full seasons in the NHL.  Those are 2 that should both bring more than they did last year; and with Quinn presumably getting a full 82 (or thereabouts) in; he himself could go a long way to replacing the lost Mittelstadt production.

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Yep.  Year 2 is when these guys start to get expected to go outside their comfort zones (though honestly not sure just what that would be in Benson's case) and with that expectations rise.

Really looking forward to seeing how both Benson and Quinn handle their 2nd full seasons in the NHL.  Those are 2 that should both bring more than they did last year; and with Quinn presumably getting a full 82 (or thereabouts) in; he himself could go a long way to replacing the lost Mittelstadt production.

If I had to bet on one player who was going to make a quantum leap forward, my money would be on Quinn. Last year, JJP took a step forward. Although I wouldn't categorize it as a quantum leap because there were too many down interludes. In my opinion, Quinn is a better player because he has a greater dimension (skating in tight spaces and hockey intelligence) to his game, whereas Peterka is more of a straight-line power forward. 

Understandably so, a lot of attention is given to who the GM is going to bring in from the outside to upgrade the roster. However, it's just as likely, if not more likely, that the improvement of players such as Benson, JJP, Quinn, UPL, Power, Byram etc.) is going to be the biggest factor in whether next season will be a success or not. 

[thewookie1]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I think Benson's "jump" will be in year 3 or 4. Likely when he's around 21. 

I will not be surprised if he takes a backwards step next year and it won't worry me as I see a bright future. He might not. We shall see how he adjusts to what Ruff brings, but I am expecting a more structured style of play and young guys usually have some issues with that initially. 

My guess is that he won’t take a step back but his production may not explode until about 21. What tends to cause a step back with youngsters are their tendencies being found out and exploited or a return to Earth after a lofty rookie year like Power did. As for Ruff’s structure slowing him down; it could but his style isn’t the same as the threat it would have on a Peterka or Skinner. Benson could just as easily struggle as thrive under Ruff since he already thinks the game in a Ruff-esque way. After all, Benson may not be big but he plays far larger than his size through an active stick, good positioning and having a definite pest-streak in his blood. He even throws hits time to time when he feels he can actually make a difference 

[Flashsabre]

28 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If I had to bet on one player who was going to make a quantum leap forward, my money would be on Quinn. Last year, JJP took a step forward. Although I wouldn't categorize it as a quantum leap because there were too many down interludes. In my opinion, Quinn is a better player because he has a greater dimension (skating in tight spaces and hockey intelligence) to his game, whereas Peterka is more of a straight-line power forward. 

Understandably so, a lot of attention is given to who the GM is going to bring in from the outside to upgrade the roster. However, it's just as likely, if not more likely, that the improvement of players such as Benson, JJP, Quinn, UPL, Power, Byram etc.) is going to be the biggest factor in whether next season will be a success or not. 

If you look at Quinn’s history his second year in the OHL he exploded, his second year in the AHL he exploded. Hopefully he stays healthy and I think he has a chance to do it again.

[CTJoe]

3 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

Yes Benson didn’t play in the NHL all year at 18 because of his offensive production. He is just so smart all over the ice that he can be effective defensively in the NHL until the offence kicks in. It looked at the end of last year that it was starting to pop.

Agreed- you'd be hard pressed to find another 18 year whos every killed penalties in the NHL.  The kid may never be a Point per game player (although he may be) but his intangibles are off the charts

[Doohickie]

On 5/16/2024 at 9:27 AM, Mr Peabody said:

The only reason I can think of for the Middlestat trade was he and KA decided they weren’t going to resign

My reply to that is, WHY NOT?  From reports, Kevyn never even approached Casey or his agent about re-signing him.  That just puzzles me.  By all accounts Casey enjoyed it here.  Maybe he would have signed a team friendly deal.  We'll never know, will we?

[PerreaultForever]

11 hours ago, JohnC said:

Neither of us know whether Benson is going to take a quantum leap forward next season. But for a player who was so young, I didn't witness him last season fading as the season grinded on. In fact, it was the opposite. I thought he played better at the end of the season than the beginning of the season because he seemed to comfortably adapt to the tougher NHL game. I'm not predicting a quantum leap forward in his play, but he should be better with a season experience and an offseason to prepare for this upcoming season. 

As far as his ability to adjust to a tougher style of play that Lindy will require compared to what Granato tolerated, I would say that he was one of our more responsible players from a checking standpoint in both zones and from a willingness to have a net presence in our offensive zone. My point is that maybe some other players will have trouble adjusting to a Lindy coached team, but he shouldn't have any problem adapting to the new coach. 

It's very possible that Benson will be fine and better even. I'm just going by what you often see from young guys in the league and saying it wouldn't surprise me and if it happens I wouldn't over react to it. The term "sophomore slump" didn't come from nowhere. It happens.

[LGR4GM]

I'd put Benson around 45-50pts this season. Benson got 30 last year as an 18yr old with barely any pp time on a terrible pp. He's only getting better. 

Jack Quinn, 70+ if he's healthy. Quinn already broke out, we just can't say it cuz it was a short time frame. He's gonna be great if he's healthy. 

These are probably the best 200ft players we have currently. I think if you can build a line around Benson, he could drive it. If you put him with Quinn Cozens, he'll hit 50pts. 

[ska-T Chitown]

18 hours ago, JohnC said:

You missed my point regarding Benson's play in his rookie season. As a full-time player his offensive stats were not impressive. That's a fact. I wasn't factoring in his age because that wasn't the issue. My central point was that despite his production I still felt that he played well and never was a liability. 

Hopefully, you are now unbaffled. 

You can consider me de-baffled on your original point. 🙂 And I was not so much directing at you, just using your post as a launch point for the discussion.

I still find it odd how generally (not just you) there is more sentiment of disappointment around what Benson did versus what Quinner or Peterks did the year before. I suspect it is because the season was so disappointing (an 18-yr old throwing in 30 points on a playoff team sounds better than doing it for some middling organization stumbling through the dark valley of no playoffs) and typically if an 18 year old makes an NHL team, it is because they are McDavid/Eichel/Bedard and they are scoring like first line players.

I think if the Sabres had been solidly in a WC spot all year and made the playoffs, Benson's season would have been seen as an indication of how strong the lineup was (dang, they did that AND had an 18 yr old) instead of the glaring weakness it was. ("It" being the fact an 18 yr old could crack the roster, not any slight on his tenacious play, dogged determination, or satisfactory point output). The concept of Benson making the team being far worse than his actual play.

[Archie Lee]

35 minutes ago, ska-T Chitown said:

You can consider me de-baffled on your original point. 🙂 And I was not so much directing at you, just using your post as a launch point for the discussion.

I still find it odd how generally (not just you) there is more sentiment of disappointment around what Benson did versus what Quinner or Peterks did the year before. I suspect it is because the season was so disappointing (an 18-yr old throwing in 30 points on a playoff team sounds better than doing it for some middling organization stumbling through the dark valley of no playoffs) and typically if an 18 year old makes an NHL team, it is because they are McDavid/Eichel/Bedard and they are scoring like first line players.

I think if the Sabres had been solidly in a WC spot all year and made the playoffs, Benson's season would have been seen as an indication of how strong the lineup was (dang, they did that AND had an 18 yr old) instead of the glaring weakness it was. ("It" being the fact an 18 yr old could crack the roster, not any slight on his tenacious play, dogged determination, or satisfactory point output). The concept of Benson making the team being far worse than his actual play.

I don't see this at all.  I think there is generally the opposite occurring and people are as much or more excited about Benson than they were about Quinn/Peterka. 

Completely agree with your last paragraph, except it wasn't just perception. I was critical of Benson being in the line-up this year, but not because Benson did not play well.  I think he had as good of a rookie year, and in some ways a better rookie year, than what Peterka or Quinn had.  My disappointment in his place on the team relates to this past year being a season where we needed to move forward; to move forward we needed something more in that position than a winger who would give us an uneven rookie season in the same category of the rookie seasons we got from Peterka/Quinn.  Benson is great.  I'm thrilled we have all 3. 

Edited May 18 by Archie Lee

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd put Benson around 45-50pts this season. Benson got 30 last year as an 18yr old with barely any pp time on a terrible pp. He's only getting better. 

Jack Quinn, 70+ if he's healthy. Quinn already broke out, we just can't say it cuz it was a short time frame. He's gonna be great if he's healthy. 

These are probably the best 200ft players we have currently. I think if you can build a line around Benson, he could drive it. If you put him with Quinn Cozens, he'll hit 50pts. 

I think it's realistic for him to hit the numbers that you project, especially if he is put on a more talented line. However, even if he doesn't reach the projected numbers, hie still adds value by the way he plays. As @K-9 pointed it, as a rookie, he was one of the most structured and persistent checkers in the lineup. And, as you noted, right now, he is one of the best full-length players on the team. This resilient youngster was a terrific draft selection. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does in his sophomore season. 

[Taro T]

On 5/18/2024 at 7:19 AM, LGR4GM said:

I'd put Benson around 45-50pts this season. Benson got 30 last year as an 18yr old with barely any pp time on a terrible pp. He's only getting better. 

Jack Quinn, 70+ if he's healthy. Quinn already broke out, we just can't say it cuz it was a short time frame. He's gonna be great if he's healthy. 

These are probably the best 200ft players we have currently. I think if you can build a line around Benson, he could drive it. If you put him with Quinn Cozens, he'll hit 50pts. 

Personally, wouldn't expect more than 60's out of Quinn should he stay healthy.  But IF Cozens gets his game back, and he very well could, wouldn't be shocked to see Quinn at a PPG.

[shrader]

30 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Personally, wouldn't expect more than 60's out of Quinn should he stay healthy.  But IF Cozens gets his game back, and he very well could, wouldn't be shocked to see Quinn at a PPG.

Contract year

[Flashsabre]

[K-9]

37 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Novikov is a glaring omission.

[GASabresIUFAN]

It's kind of a hard group to rank right now.  I think the top 12 all have NHL futures.  After the top 15, I doubt any of the others play a minute in the NHL. 

1. Benson is still a prospect despite playing in the NHL last season (and again this coming season).  He's 18 with only 71 games under his belt.  He is still waivers exempt and can be sent back to the CHL

2. Levi - Likely UPL's 1B to start next season.  Great in the AHL once sent down full time. 

3. Savoie - AHL eligible next season after destroying the WHL.  Could make a run at an NHL roster spot in the fall.

4. Johnson - still only 22 and earned a extended callup last season.  I think he could force his way into the Sabres lineup fulltime next fall.

5. Kulich - didn't see much progress year over year in the A.  Hopefully he'll take another step forward next season.

6. Rosen - Improved over the course of the season, but like Kulich struggled in the playoffs.  Also needs to take another step forward next season

7. Östlund - Solid season in the SHL and a very good in the U20.  Made Amerks debut.  Could vault ahead of Rosen and Kulich next season

8. Novikov - Great AHL debut with 23 pts for the Big D.  Might challenge for an NHL callup as early as next season.

9. Wahlberg- Solid AHL late season debut for the big center.  Decent in the U20s

10. Komarov - Q D of the year for good reason. Now lets see if the O he showed in the Q carries over into the A for the big D.  Skating still a concern

11.  Neuchev - Came on late in the year for the Amerks.  Hope to see further progress next season

12. Strbak - Another big D who had a nice freshman season in the NCAA for Mich St.

13. Lindgren - Another solid year in the WHL.  Hopefully he'll be in Rochester in the fall

14. McCarthy - 38 games as a freshman for BU and was a +12. 

15. Ratzlaff  -  played 52 games for Seattle in the WHL.  Solid if unspectacular .905 save %

16. Kisakov - Improved in second season in Rochester, not sure what his future is however.

17. Poltapov - only 13 points in 56 KHL games.  I don't expect him to come to NA.

18. Richard - Solid freshman year at UConn with 18 points in 36 games

19. Costantini - 21 year old blew up in 3rd NCAA season with 31 pts in 38 games for W Mich after on 3 pts for N Dakota the year before.

20. Sardarian - production improved in second collegiate season with 14 pts in 32 games.

21. Marjala - 40 pts in 60 Liiga games with another 9 in 9 playoffs games.  No idea if he'll return to NA.

22. Kozak - 12 pts in 41 Amerks games

23. Miedema - 41 pts in 68 games in the OHL this year down from 52 in 68 last season.

24. Panocha - Solid first NA season for the German D with 15 pts in 52 games in the Q.  

25. Leinonen - Former 2nd rd pick is looking like a bust.  Continues to struggle in Finland.  Moving to Sweden 2nd tier league next season.

Edited May 25 by GASabresIUFAN

[French Collection]

First game of the Memorial Cup tonight. Matt Savoie and the Moose Jaw Warriors take on host Saginaw Spirit and 1st round prospect Zayne Parekh.

I know it is on TSN in Canada at 7:30.