We need to talk about Zach Benson making the team this year, 2023

[Curt]

34 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Based on what?  He has played 2 pre-season games against Ahlers, Prospects and a couple of NHLers.  

I seem to remember he was voted best defensive forward in the WHL in a coaches poll, but I’m not finding it now.  He was definitely lauded by multiple scouting sources as one of the best (sometimes straight up the best) defensive forwards in the draft.

[Brawndo]

The Sabres appear to have finally figured out how to develop players properly. 
They are not going to keep Benson with the team unless they feel it’s the best situation for Him. 
 

Patrick Kane, Jack Hughes and Zach Benson were all 5’10” their draft years and weighed between 165-170. 
 

If he stays I do not think it would be in Top 6 Role to start, a third line of Greenway-Mitts-Benson would be interesting. 
 

 

[LTS]

6 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

That active stick of his is special. It frustrates me so much how many NHL players don’t do it. Even if good players can dodge it, it keeps the pressure on and that adds up. 
 

Im sorry Skinner, put Benson with Tage and Thompson, he’s ready for 9 at a minimum. Will flourish if he can be paired with some size. 

Tage is big, but I am sure splitting him in half will half serious impacts to his game. 🙂

4 hours ago, ... said:

Revisit the post you quoted. You have it backwards. I am saying all 18 years olds should be considered at risk. The question then becomes "why is Benson the exception?"

Benson has done well so far, although I have witnessed him getting moved off the puck with some ease. But, as stated at the beginning of the thread, these are exhibition games. We are not seeing the full force of the opposing team bearing down on Benson for every one of his shifts. The opposition will try and take advantage of him being young and inexperienced. Haven't you seen enough new players get hurt over the years to at least give you pause?

That's where the 9 game stint makes sense. It's still early in the season where teams aren't settled into the grind and are building momentum toward January/February slug fests. It's the safest time for him to be out there and see how he manages.

Surely you're not implying when you say an "18-year-olds going off on their own to live as adults is a fact of life" means the majority of 18 year old are getting jobs at the factory with plans to work toward their pension.

1. Most 18 year olds who do go off to live their own lives aren't going into an exceptionally demanding pro sport. How many 18 year NFL players are there?
2. Most 18 year olds "going off on their own" are heading to college which is a highly controlled and structured environment where they typically don't subject their bodies to abuse. They also tend to "go home" for vacation periods and the summers.
3. In 2023, an 18 year old going off completely, totally, and utterly on their own is an outlier and not the norm.

Of course Benson et al have been preparing all their lives for this step in their careers. It doesn't mean it's their time when they get their first sniff. Again, the adults should be the adults.

I think the NHL and the teams have plenty of data by now to make a determination on a case-by-case basis on how a player should proceed.

Let's just leave it to hockey here.  Hockey is a sport that routinely sees kids at a very young age going off and living away from their families for an extended period of time.  Our friend's daughter has been at prep school since 14 playing hockey. These kids are going to play hockey for a good part of the day and then get an education. They are being banged up and are playing against bigger individuals.

If Zach Benson were in college his year, he'd be playing against 22 year olds who are bigger and stronger.

Overall, I'm can't recall if a team can have Benson play a few games, then send him down, and bring him back again to play a few more.  If that's possible then I suspect that if they feel Benson can contribute immediately they'll send him back to Wenatchee while they work a trade that opens up a roster spot and then recall him.  Having him sitting in the press box while working a trade is a clear indication the Sabres think he's ready and it could impact value.

I won't prognosticate more.  I need to see him in an NHL game against a full NHL squad.

[Porous Five Hole]

If Benson in a top six or top nine role is far and away more productive than Kulich or Rousek, then he stays.  But I don’t think he is. 
I think he is better served gaining weight and experience at a lower level. You only get three years of an ELC and his projected production in 22-23 isn’t enough to burn a year now over those other guys. 
 

Don’t murder me PA and others who think this post is only about the future. I am not saying that. I just don’t think he’s enough of an upgrade over the stable of other top tier prospects to hang around for 2023. 

[LGR4GM]

42 minutes ago, Curt said:

I seem to remember he was voted best defensive forward in the WHL in a coaches poll, but I’m not finding it now.  He was definitely lauded by multiple scouting sources as one of the best (sometimes straight up the best) defensive forwards in the draft.

Elite Prospects rated him the best 2way forward in the 2023 draft class. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

I seem to remember he was voted best defensive forward in the WHL in a coaches poll, but I’m not finding it now.  He was definitely lauded by multiple scouting sources as one of the best (sometimes straight up the best) defensive forwards in the draft.

 

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

He was one of the best defensive players in the whl if I remember right. 

That’s a place to start, but it’s not 2 way play in the NHL.  I’ll reserve judgement on his 2 way play until we see him in the NHL.  Cozens was known for his two way play and he is struggling with that piece of his game. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Scottysabres]

So, if a couple of these rooks make it tough on Adams to send them down, what exactly happens here? Would that force Adams to trade some players?

[Curt]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

That’s a place to start, but it’s not 2 way play in the NHL.  I’ll reserve judgement on his 2 way play until we see him in the NHL.  Cozens was know for his two way play and he is struggling with that piece of his game. 

That’s fair.  I was just sharing info.

[JohnC]

6 hours ago, ... said:

Revisit the post you quoted. You have it backwards. I am saying all 18 years olds should be considered at risk. The question then becomes "why is Benson the exception?"

Benson has done well so far, although I have witnessed him getting moved off the puck with some ease. But, as stated at the beginning of the thread, these are exhibition games. We are not seeing the full force of the opposing team bearing down on Benson for every one of his shifts. The opposition will try and take advantage of him being young and inexperienced. Haven't you seen enough new players get hurt over the years to at least give you pause?

That's where the 9 game stint makes sense. It's still early in the season where teams aren't settled into the grind and are building momentum toward January/February slug fests. It's the safest time for him to be out there and see how he manages.

Surely you're not implying when you say an "18-year-olds going off on their own to live as adults is a fact of life" means the majority of 18 year old are getting jobs at the factory with plans to work toward their pension.

1. Most 18 year olds who do go off to live their own lives aren't going into an exceptionally demanding pro sport. How many 18 year NFL players are there?
2. Most 18 year olds "going off on their own" are heading to college which is a highly controlled and structured environment where they typically don't subject their bodies to abuse. They also tend to "go home" for vacation periods and the summers.
3. In 2023, an 18 year old going off completely, totally, and utterly on their own is an outlier and not the norm.

Of course Benson et al have been preparing all their lives for this step in their careers. It doesn't mean it's their time when they get their first sniff. Again, the adults should be the adults.

I think the NHL and the teams have plenty of data by now to make a determination on a case-by-case basis on how a player should proceed.

Few people would argue with you that in general it is better for an 18 yr. old to be given more time to develop physically before playing in the NHL, a tough man's league. But that stance isn't an absolute rule. There are exceptions. They may be few but they do exist. There is still more time in the preseason before making a judgment whether to send him back to the juniors. But as of right now he has earned the right to work with the NHL team. At the minimum, his play has indicated that he has earned the right to stay with the club for the first nine games before a decision is made whether to send him back to the juniors or stay with the big club. 

[dudacek]

Here’s what Donnie thinks:

“How would you stick around?” Granato said. “You look at young players and size and strength is an automatic. You can’t put a guy in the NHL no matter how talented he is if he can’t keep up with the size and strength of players in the NHL. He stripped and stole some pucks and forced some plays against guys that are 30 or 40 pounds heavier than him (against Washington). He pushed them back, forced them into bad ice and eventually there were turnovers. That was impressive. … That was something I never would have guessed a player would have done that quick.”

[LGR4GM]

20 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

https://theathletic.com/4903739/2023/09/26/zach-benson-sabres-training-camp/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

 

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Here’s what Donnie thinks:

“How would you stick around?” Granato said. “You look at young players and size and strength is an automatic. You can’t put a guy in the NHL no matter how talented he is if he can’t keep up with the size and strength of players in the NHL. He stripped and stole some pucks and forced some plays against guys that are 30 or 40 pounds heavier than him (against Washington). He pushed them back, forced them into bad ice and eventually there were turnovers. That was impressive. … That was something I never would have guessed a player would have done that quick.”

[K-9]

When I think about @LGR4GM’s point about how Benson would still play his game whether he’s skating with the top line or a bottom group, I think the concerns about his strength and physical maturity are misplaced. Granato seems to echo that idea as well. Benson imposes his game on the opponent, regardless. Given what we’ve seen so far, he’s been playing like one of our top 12 forwards. The big question for me is where is his development as a hockey player best served? It certainly isn’t at the junior level any longer imo, and the AHL is off limits. 

[Taro T]

53 minutes ago, K-9 said:

When I think about @LGR4GM’s point about how Benson would still play his game whether he’s skating with the top line or a bottom group, I think the concerns about his strength and physical maturity are misplaced. Granato seems to echo that idea as well. Benson imposes his game on the opponent, regardless. Given what we’ve seen so far, he’s been playing like one of our top 12 forwards. The big question for me is where is his development as a hockey player best served? It certainly isn’t at the junior level any longer imo, and the AHL is off limits. 

If he's one of the top 9 or 10 (not sure they'll give him a roster spot if he's only the 11th or 12th guy because they wouldn't be seeing that much of a team improvement between that and #13) then it would certainly seem his development would be best served playing against NHLers.  

The cool thing is, they have more than a single keep/cut decision deadline for him and as he evolves the decision could change.  (And realize you know these milestones.  This spot is just a good spot to put them.)  Obviously the 1st one is on the 1st day of the season when they have to be cap compliant.  Unless something major changes in these next several days am expecting him to make the keep threshold there because as soon as he's sent back to WA he's gone until their season is done barring a ST emergency callup that might never be possible unless there are serious injury issues, so hopefully that's not a possible option.

After that, there's when he's played 9 games.  If they give him 1 more game, he burns a year off his ELC.  Less obvious he'll clear that hurdle, but wouldn't bet against it.

After that, there'd be when he's been active roster for 39 games (and active roster includes games he misses due to injury while on the official roster).  Because the 40th game gets him an accrued season towards FA and most all the rest.  That's the tricky one.  If he's still here by then is he still getting regular ice time or is he seeming to burn out a bit.

Am really interested to see how it plays out for him.  Guys drafted outside the top 2 or 3 slots rarely play their D+1 year in the NHL.  Would be cool if he's good enough to earn that.  He just might be.  And probably is.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Taro T

[ndirish1978]

I think he has the skill and mental makeup to play in the NHL. I don't think his body is in a place where he could play a full season and be effective. I'd like him to put on muscle like many here have stated. If he can do that in the NHL, ok. If he's best served doing that playing in juniors and working on his size and skating speed, then let's do that.

[LGR4GM]

I would send him back because you slide that ELC and it ends after Jeff Skinner's 9mil deal ends. It has been mentioned by others but I think we need to mention that again. 

[Doohickie]

On 9/27/2023 at 10:29 AM, LGR4GM said:

His WHL team would have to miss the playoffs for that. 

Is that true?  They could call him up to the NHL at any time, couldn't they?

[Brawndo]

12 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Is that true?  They could call him up to the NHL at any time, couldn't they?

No only for an emergency recall.

And that requires multiple injuries to the forward group in Buffalo and Rochester 

[inkman]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

If he's one of the top 9 or 10 (not sure they'll give him a roster spot if he's only the 11th or 12th guy because they wouldn't be seeing that much of a team improvement between that and #13) then it would certainly seem his development would be best served playing against NHLers.  

The cool thing is, they have more than a single keep/cut decision deadline for him and as he evolves the decision could change.  (And realize you know these milestones.  This spot is just a good spot to put them.)  Obviously the 1st one is on the 1st day of the season when they have to be cap compliant.  Unless something major changes in these next several days am expecting him to make the keep threshold there because as soon as he's sent back to WA he's gone until their season is done barring a ST emergency callup that might never be possible unless there are serious injury issues, so hopefully that's not a possible option.

After that, there's when he's played 9 games.  If they give him 1 more game, he burns a year off his ELC.  Less obvious he'll clear that hurdle, but wouldn't bet against it.

After that, there'd be when he's been active roster for 39 games (and active roster includes games he misses due to injury while on the official roster).  Because the 40th game gets him an accrued season towards FA and most all the rest.  That's the tricky one.  If he's still here by then is he still getting regular ice time or is he seeming to burn out a bit.

Am really interested to see how it plays out for him.  Guys drafted outside the top 2 or 3 slots rarely play their D+1 year in the NHL.  Would be cool if he's good enough to earn that.  He just might be.  And probably is.

If he’s irreplaceable after 9 games I guess you keep him but as @LGR4GM mentioned, having his contract slide another year is somewhat important.  So basically it comes down to is this kid important enough to your team winning now to burn that contract year.  

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I would send him back because you slide that ELC and it ends after Jeff Skinner's 9mil deal ends. It has been mentioned by others but I think we need to mention that again. 

Things like this matter if he ends up playing at a level somewhere in vicinity of Vinnie Hinostroza to JJ Peterka.

What if he's capable of being Clayton Keller, who put up 65 points as an NHL rookie when he was 10 months older than Benson and about the same size?

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, inkman said:

If he’s irreplaceable after 9 games I guess you keep him but as @LGR4GM mentioned, having his contract slide another year is somewhat important.  So basically it comes down to is this kid important enough to your team winning now to burn that contract year.  

If he earns it, you keep him up.  This team is on a 12 year playoff-less drought.  Management is on record as saying they want not just playoffs this year, but to actually legitimately compete for the Stanley Cup.  This team already decided to avoid losing any of its precious lottery tickets to upgrade the G2 role.  That doesn't mesh with that stated goal.

Sending Benson down IF he has earned a spot in the top 9 also works against that particular stated goal.  IF Benson really is that good 4 years from now that an LT deal would push the team to cap issues, 1st off that's a really good problem to have considering how young this team is (and still will be) and how Adams is constantly talking about the plan being to build from within - he'll have to have been nailing these picks and many of these kids that look like they'll be great must actually be getting there.

2nd off, at that time, then give him a 1 year (or 2 year deal) which gives him arbitration rights that next year IIRC but it keeps him far from becoming an UFA (he'd still have to play 3 more seasons after that 1 year deal expires to become a UFA.

Agree that they always should be looking big picture; but sometimes you can let yourself become too cute by 1/2.  Sending Benson down even though he IS one of your 10 best F's today because you want 1 extra year on his ELC even though the window opens NOW would seem to be an example of just that.

[LGR4GM]

59 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Things like this matter if he ends up playing at a level somewhere in vicinity of Vinnie Hinostroza to JJ Peterka.

What if he's capable of being Clayton Keller, who put up 65 points as an NHL rookie when he was 10 months older than Benson and about the same size?

You're argument falls apart once you admit Keller was 19. I fully expect 19yr of Benson to be in the NHL. 

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You're argument falls apart once you admit Keller was 19. I fully expect 19yr of Benson to be in the NHL. 

So he can’t follow in his footsteps because he’s 10 months younger, full stop?

[LGR4GM]

Just now, dudacek said:

So he can’t follow in his footsteps because he’s 10 months younger, full stop?

It's exceedingly less likely a player 10 months younger follows that path. It's gonna be similar to comparing rookie jjp to 2nd year jjp and then saying why didn't he do that last year. Benson being 1 yr older makes it much more likely he'll be better in the NHL. 10 months is essentially a full year. You're comparing a 19yr old to an 18yr old.

[LGR4GM]

The number of 18yr old players who are successful in the NHL is low. Jack Eichel didn't do it. He turned 19 in the early part of the season. 

Fantilli is turning 19. Bedard will be 18 but he's on the Jack Hughes path. It's just a more difficult ask and less likely. Personally, I think Benson this year in the NHL is maybe a 35pt player. He needs better speed And teams will learn how to play him. I've loved him since the draft but I'm willing to be patient. 

Jack Hughes is a better comparable. 18yr old 5'10" player with 21pts in 60ish games. That's probably a good read on Benson. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by LGR4GM

[That Aud Smell]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You're argument falls apart once you admit Keller was 19. I fully expect 19yr of Benson to be in the NHL. 

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So he can’t follow in his footsteps because he’s 10 months younger, full stop?

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

It's exceedingly less likely a player 10 months younger follows that path. It's gonna be similar to comparing rookie jjp to 2nd year jjp and then saying why didn't he do that last year. Benson being 1 yr older makes it much more likely he'll be better in the NHL. 10 months is essentially a full year. You're comparing a 19yr old to an 18yr old.

Maaaaaan, @dudacek. I trusted you on that Clayton Keller thing. I TRUSTED YOU.