Connor McDavid's next team...

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, Standing Room Smoking Cigs said:

That has to be an athlete's motivation.... Your the best in the world and seeing Eichel raise the Cup, shouldn't sit well with him. McDavid will force himself out next year.... be it the nightmare scenario that he goes to Vegas... (Buffalo heads would explode).... For all the talk about Matthews, McDavid needs a cup ,he is the face of the NHL who shouldn't just show only once a year at the ESPYS...  As much as I hate to say it, he belongs in NY....

McDavid in Vegas made me think it goes something like: 

Vegas trades Eichel to Boston for idk DeBrusk, Carlo, a bunch of future first or second rounders. Vegas then flips DeBrusk and like all their first round picks for the next 5 or 6 years for McDavid, then Eichel and McDavid meet in the Stanley Cup final. NHL has so many storylines they don't know how to deal with them all. 

Meanwhile, Matthews is the highest paid player in the NHL playing in the dessert and losing in the first round of the playoffs every year until he retires. 

and after all that, it simply shifts to Michkov vs, Bedard like Ovi/Crosby. and the beat goes on...........................

[French Collection]

15 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Meanwhile, Matthews is the highest paid player in the NHL playing in the dessert and losing in the first round of the playoffs every year until he retires. 

Music to my ears.

[Scottysabres]

5 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

The trade I proposed got rid of 4 or 5 first round picks, but we also added 4 or 5 excess first rounders over the last few years. The prospect pool would be completely fine and probably still better than those of most contenders. 

Our roster is already full and we have like 6 first rounders who aren't on it yet. The point of doing that is to use the extra pieces as ammunition. What better target is there than Connor mcdavid, in this thought experiment?

"Gutting the team"

are we doubling the NHL roster sizes in the next CBA or something? We are going to have to ship out piles of prospects anyway if not. Our team is completely full of young talent now, yet I read somewhere that we have the best and deepest pool of young talent behind them!

Some of those assets will reach the NHL, some won't. The ones that do become integral cap controlling assets early on. The idea is to keep that "affordable" skilled/talented pipeline going over the next decade and beyond. You create a rather large hole in that strategy by gutting what is a healthy size of those assets. That back fill will most likely have to come via FA signings, which in normal circumstances not healthy for the cap room, which in turn rears its ugly head in roster issues.

McDavid has accomplished nothing of significance towards a championship to date......the ROI for a move like this is far more risk than staying the KA course of build and develop from within.

[Standing Room Smoking Cigs]

28 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

Some of those assets will reach the NHL, some won't. The ones that do become integral cap controlling assets early on. The idea is to keep that "affordable" skilled/talented pipeline going over the next decade and beyond. You create a rather large hole in that strategy by gutting what is a healthy size of those assets. That back fill will most likely have to come via FA signings, which in normal circumstances not healthy for the cap room, which in turn rears its ugly head in roster issues.

McDavid has accomplished nothing of significance towards a championship to date......the ROI for a move like this is far more risk than staying the KA course of build and develop from within.

The premise of my original post was that McDavid wouldn't be going to Buffalo.... that won't happen as the league would want to maximize his potential in the major east coast markets.... The NHL doesn't have the NFL exposure nor will it ever. McDavid is the the NHL's media's down here sweetener for the owners. He's bound for NY metropolitan... I saw Messi everywhere today, granted Messi is Messi but McDavid in NY or nearby in a major market would drive hype on a scale that would help the NHL stay in the NFL/NBA sports media exposure.... It is no longer about hockey per se, it's about eyeballs maximizing televised revenues... sad to say.... plus he needs a cup

Edited July 18, 2023 by Standing Room Smoking Cigs
new wording

[...]

2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I don't think it's as simple as "fixing a statistical problem we don't have"

A huge part of our defensive issues come from the way we play on offense. Fire-wagon hockey. When we calm this down as we should, we simply aren't going to score as much

Unless we have a transcendent talent who can play the part of the more mature, winning style of hockey, and still score at historic levels 

This could unlock an unprecedented ceiling 

Sure, it "could unlock an unprecedented ceiling" and I'm for acquiring McDavid if it can be accomplished prudently, but let's examine the statistical problem.

Are we not expecting more points from the entire (projected) second line (Peterka, Cozens, Quinn - Quinn's injury notwithstanding)? How much of a drop in scoring are you expecting to see - enough where it isn't offset by an increase in production by said players alone? Although I think it's reasonable to expect other players like Dahlin, Mitts, Krebs and Power for example to score not a lot, but a few more.

I don't expect the defensive responsibility adjustment to yield a terribly large drop from our standing in the seasonal scoring chart after factoring in expected gains from players as mentioned above. Unless it all goes wrong and the adjustment impedes our skaters' ability to score. That would be something. I don't know if Meatballs would have had them play the game the way they did just to tell them not to play that way. We've seen that before.

Anyway, almost like being a President's Trophy winner automatically disqualifies a team from winning the Cup that year, I think the numbers below plainly show that being a league leader doesn't always give you a free pass to winning the Cup. For 3/4 of the time the average standing is 9th (7th over an 8 season sample). I think we'd be okay without McDavid coming in and blowing up the roster plan.

It also shows us that a McDavid team isn't all that special in scoring with the exception of this last season.

YEAR SCW STANDING GOALS

2023 Vegas 14th 267 (Oilers 1st 325)
2022 Colorado Avalanche 4th 308 (Oilers 8th 285)
2021 Tampa Bay Lightning 9th 180 (Oilers 7th 183)
2020 Tampa Bay Lightning - 1st 243 (Oilers 11th 223)
2019 St. Louis Blues 15th 244 (Oilers 20th 229)
2018 Washington Capitals 9th 256 (Oilers 20th 229)
2017 Pittsburgh Penguins 1st 278 (Oilers 8th 243)
2016 Pittsburgh Penguins 3rd 241 (Oilers 25th 199 [tied with the Sabres FWIW])

 

Edited July 18, 2023 by ...

[PerreaultForever]

28 minutes ago, Standing Room Smoking Cigs said:

The premise of my original post was that McDavid wouldn't be going to Buffalo.... that won't happen as the league would want to maximize his potential in the major east coast markets.... 

So your contention then is that the league would influence/alter/fix? any potential trades involving McDavid? In other words it's all rigged? 

I mean if that was true, the league would never have allowed him to go to Edmonton in the first place. he would have gone to Toronto or perhaps Philly right away. 

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, Scottysabres said:

Some of those assets will reach the NHL, some won't. The ones that do become integral cap controlling assets early on. The idea is to keep that "affordable" skilled/talented pipeline going over the next decade and beyond. You create a rather large hole in that strategy by gutting what is a healthy size of those assets. That back fill will most likely have to come via FA signings, which in normal circumstances not healthy for the cap room, which in turn rears its ugly head in roster issues.

McDavid has accomplished nothing of significance towards a championship to date......the ROI for a move like this is far more risk than staying the KA course of build and develop from within.

My strategy would still leave more first round-equivalent players from 2019 through 2023 drafts than the average team accrues during a span of that length, and doesn't touch any 2nd, 3rd rounders etc. so explain where the "large holes" and "risks" lie, aside from the terror of things mattering right now, which I'm becoming more and more aware of as the offseason drags on

McDavid dragged a bottom 3 roster to a WCF last year

Edited July 18, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

46 minutes ago, ... said:

Sure, it "could unlock an unprecedented ceiling" and I'm for acquiring McDavid if it can be accomplished prudently, but let's examine the statistical problem.

Are we not expecting more points from the entire (projected) second line (Peterka, Cozens, Quinn - Quinn's injury notwithstanding)? How much of a drop in scoring are you expecting to see - enough where it isn't offset by an increase in production by said players alone? Although I think it's reasonable to expect other players like Dahlin, Mitts, Krebs and Power for example to score not a lot, but a few more.

I don't expect the defensive responsibility adjustment to yield a terribly large drop from our standing in the seasonal scoring chart after factoring in expected gains from players as mentioned above. Unless it all goes wrong and the adjustment impedes our skaters' ability to score. That would be something. I don't know if Meatballs would have had them play the game the way they did just to tell them not to play that way. We've seen that before.

Anyway, almost like being a President's Trophy winner automatically disqualifies a team from winning the Cup that year, I think the numbers below plainly show that being a league leader doesn't always give you a free pass to winning the Cup. For 3/4 of the time the average standing is 9th (7th over an 8 season sample). I think we'd be okay without McDavid coming in and blowing up the roster plan.

It also shows us that a McDavid team isn't all that special in scoring with the exception of this last season.

YEAR SCW STANDING GOALS

2023 Vegas 14th 267 (Oilers 1st 325)
2022 Colorado Avalanche 4th 308 (Oilers 8th 285)
2021 Tampa Bay Lightning 9th 180 (Oilers 7th 183)
2020 Tampa Bay Lightning - 1st 243 (Oilers 11th 223)
2019 St. Louis Blues 15th 244 (Oilers 20th 229)
2018 Washington Capitals 9th 256 (Oilers 20th 229)
2017 Pittsburgh Penguins 1st 278 (Oilers 8th 243)
2016 Pittsburgh Penguins 3rd 241 (Oilers 25th 199 [tied with the Sabres FWIW])

 

There isn't a clean way to quantify how scoring decreases when teams change their philosophy, but many players speak openly of the phenomenon, including Buffalo's most recent Colorado expat. Scoring wasn't an issue this year directly because of the thing that also kept us out of the playoffs. Great, we finished 3rd in the league in goals in 2022 - we also finished 3rd worst in franchise HISTORY, in goals against, and had scoring-chance-against/xGA/etc. metrics in line with the Bedard-watchers. To fix that to a reasonable degree will require some unknown curtailing in a lot of what drove our scoring, and that is abandoning positioning for the rush pass that often never made it there (but was awesome when it did)

I don't know exactly to what degree McDavid could help a team remain elite at scoring while transitioning styles to become a championship contender, but I know that he is surreal to a degree I won't see again for decades, and that a coach who, if nothing else, can get the most out of his players, would be incredibly interesting to watch as he tries to figure it out

Again, teams are trading for guys the Oilers have put on their 2nd and 3rd lines the last few years and then immediately buying them out, because Edmonton has spent the last 5 years putting together garbage rosters. They literally have McDavid, Draisaitl, and fourth-liners/tweeners. It's disgusting. I'm not interested in team-level metrics because of that. The fact remains that nobody has impacted the game like Connor has when on ice since people started inventing new ways to measure that 20 years ago. And nobody has come particularly close. I'm not promising anything, but i'm not scared of anything either, especially because in theory it would be possible to do this and still have a full roster and a full prospect pool, thanks to Kevyn's stockpile, off of which he has so far refused to budge

[Scottysabres]

5 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

My strategy would still leave more first round-equivalent players from 2019 through 2023 drafts than the average team accrues during a span of that length, and doesn't touch any 2nd, 3rd rounders etc. so explain where the "large holes" and "risks" lie, aside from the terror of things mattering right now, which I'm becoming more and more aware of as the offseason drags on

McDavid dragged a bottom 3 roster to a WCF last year

1st rd selections have an increased % of reaching the NHL, let alone be impactful players then lesser rd selections. The drop off is significant.

Decreasing the pool for a player that once again, has not led his existing team to a Championship match, let alone a championship, while decreasing the cost control and pool of the existing pipeline, which in turn will have a snowball rolling down hill effect on cap as the team will look to FA, which is far more expensive than KA's draft and develop strategy is one of several examples of why a deal of this nature should not be done.

Those assets moved to acquire a player of McDavids value will be missed, whether you realize it or not. Again, all to acquire McDavid, who's led no one to the promise land as of this date.

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

1st rd selections have an increased % of reaching the NHL, let alone be impactful players then lesser rd selections. The drop off is significant.

Decreasing the pool for a player that once again, has not led his existing team to a Championship match, let alone a championship, while decreasing the cost control and pool of the existing pipeline, which in turn will have a snowball rolling down hill effect on cap as the team will look to FA, which is far more expensive than KA's draft and develop strategy is one of several examples of why a deal of this nature should not be done.

Those assets moved to acquire a player of McDavids value will be missed, whether you realize it or not. Again, all to acquire McDavid, who's led no one to the promise land as of this date.

Again, we'd have more players of that pedigree than most teams for the era from which we are abandoning the assets, so there isn't a real hole there. sure we are trading some 22/24 picks away in that pile, but we still have Krebs/Cozens (2019), Quinn (2020), Power (2021), Östlund (2022), Benson (2023) in that scenario. Where is the hole? That's the POINT of doing what we did!

And I don't care what McDavid did or didn't do in Edmonton. Imagine what he'd do here with our stacked roster vs their collection of nobodies  

Edited July 18, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[Doohickie]

Connor McDavid's next team will be the Jacksonville Icemen.

[Randall Flagg]

Channeling @SwampD, "who needs a 60 goal, 155 point 5x Art Ross, 3x Hart winner?"

[Doohickie]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Channeling @SwampD, "who needs a 60 goal, 155 point 5x Art Ross, 3x Hart winner?"

But how is he in the locker room???????

[Randall Flagg]

Trade: Tage Thompson, Henri Jokiharju, Matt Savoie, Isak Rosen, Jiri Kulich, 2024 1st, 2025 1st for Connor McDavid

Skinner - McDavid - Tuch
JJP - Cozens - Quinn
Mitts - Krebs - Greenway
Rousek - Z - Okposo 

(this is a YOUNG forward corps)

Dahlin - Samuelsson
Power - Clifton
Johnson - Boosh

(This is a VERY YOUNG defense corps)

Levi ( a VERY YOUNG stud goalie)
goalie

Benson, Östlund, Neuchev, Novikov etc.

Sabres fans: idk bro, im a little worried about our 2028 depth when the 2025 first rounder should be hitting his stride. Better to finish this year with 93 points imo

Edited July 18, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

I'm only still posting because i do NOT accept the reality of work tomorrow 

[Standing Room Smoking Cigs]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

So your contention then is that the league would influence/alter/fix? any potential trades involving McDavid? In other words it's all rigged? 

I mean if that was true, the league would never have allowed him to go to Edmonton in the first place. he would have gone to Toronto or perhaps Philly right away. 

It happened before... see Gretzky

[Zamboni]

If Oilers were even willing to trade McDavid, they would ask for Dahlin (50% retained), Power, Cozens, Benson, 2024 and 2025 1st unprotected. Or something like that. They would want (and get from some team) a kings ransom. 

[inkman]

7 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Trade: Tage Thompson, Henri Jokiharju, Matt Savoie, Isak Rosen, Jiri Kulich, 2024 1st, 2025 1st for Connor McDavid

Skinner - McDavid - Tuch
JJP - Cozens - Quinn
Mitts - Krebs - Greenway
Rousek - Z - Okposo 

(this is a YOUNG forward corps)

Dahlin - Samuelsson
Power - Clifton
Johnson - Boosh

(This is a VERY YOUNG defense corps)

Levi ( a VERY YOUNG stud goalie)
goalie

Benson, Östlund, Neuchev, Novikov etc.

Sabres fans: idk bro, im a little worried about our 2028 depth when the 2025 first rounder should be hitting his stride. Better to finish this year with 93 points imo

 

3 hours ago, Zamboni said:

If Oilers were even willing to trade McDavid, they would ask for Dahlin (50% retained), Power, Cozens, Benson, 2024 and 2025 1st unprotected. Or something like that. They would want (and get from some team) a kings ransom. 

Thanks @Zamboni for injecting some reality into this completely farcical discussion.   

[Randall Flagg]

39 minutes ago, inkman said:

 

Thanks @Zamboni for injecting some reality into this completely farcical discussion.   

Everyone has been clear this entire time that we are engaged in fantasy, so it's unnecessary to point it out 

If McDavid asks out, the Oilers will trade him. They don't want to and don't have aw much leverage as you think. My trade and his are only off in value by one great piece. If we come with that offer, what team is beating it, and what's the offer they make that beats it, knowing that the Oilers don't have a lot of leverage?

[MattPie]

What does the trade package look like if McDavid himself engineers the return to make sure the Sabres are still stacked after?

[dudacek]

7 hours ago, Standing Room Smoking Cigs said:

It happened before... see Gretzky

Gretzky was traded for Jimmy Carson, Martin Gelinas and 3 1st-rounders.

The most obvious parallel would be Thompson, Benson and 3 1st-rounders.

With the Oilers also sending us something like Foegele and Kulak as the Krushelnyski/McSorley

6 minutes ago, MattPie said:

What does the trade package look like if McDavid himself engineers the return to make sure the Sabres are still stacked after?

Pretty clearly it’s Victor (call me Slava) Olofsson and a 2nd.

[Taro T]

21 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Everyone has been clear this entire time that we are engaged in fantasy, so it's unnecessary to point it out 

If McDavid asks out, the Oilers will trade him. They don't want to and don't have aw much leverage as you think. My trade and his are only off in value by one great piece. If we come with that offer, what team is beating it, and what's the offer they make that beats it, knowing that the Oilers don't have a lot of leverage?

And it's not like Thompson is chopped liver.  He's a legit #1 center.  And the Eulers would still have another one of those in Draisatl.  Absolutely expect the Eulers would push for Dahlin because they have a spare #1C, but Thompson is on a very team favorable contract and if the Eulers are in a spot where they are even entertaining offers on McDavid they know that path was chosen by McDavid.  

The other pieces would all be in line to be upgrades throughout the rest of their lineup.  And let's face it, outside the top 5 slots (and even sometimes within the top 5 slots (Yakapov anyone?)) the Eulers are HORRIBLE at drafting.  The former 1st rounders all step into their line up.  The 2 future 1st rounders probably wash out, but they can still hope they work out.  Were the Eulers smart, they'd push for even 1 more high end prospect and leave the 1st round picks to teams that might know how to use them.

[PASabreFan]

2 hours ago, MattPie said:

What does the trade package look like if McDavid himself engineers the return to make sure the Sabres are still stacked after?

Doing the Dom. (Kids, don't look this up on Urban Dictionary. Spoiler alert: it involves a Slinky and Buttermilk Ranch.)

[mjd1001]

I wouldn't really be interested in McDavid to the Sabres for what it would probably cost, or even 80% of what it would cost.  Ultimately hockey for me is entertainment, not just the game itself but the building of the roster. I get much more enjoyment out of seeing a team draft and develop, or trade for young guys and develop them...than I do about the free agent signings or signing/trading for multi-year veterans.

[Thorny]

On 7/17/2023 at 1:19 PM, Randall Flagg said:

This is actually Kevyn's end game btw

He's not clinging to assets to establish his reputation, or because he loves them too much, or loves the slow burn on his timeline 

He is getting ready to pounce when McDavid asks out 

 

🙂

Sign me up. What do we think it’ll take? I’m definitely open to it but we can’t go mortgaging the future to make it happen. For instance, Rosen remains an Untouchable for me in said deal. The Sabres aren’t trying to win the cup this season, remember - and I don’t want to Murray out, here 

On 7/17/2023 at 1:21 PM, Taro T said:

You sure about that.  The Eulers won a 5th cup without Gretzky.

Gretzky took the Kings to the Finals once and didn't go there with the Blues nor the Blue Shirts.

Messier was the captain of that 5th Eulers W and also got the Rags their only SC championship in 83 years.

Gretzky is the perfect example of why it’s pretty dumb to expect *any* one guy to substantially elevate or “carry” a team on their own - it’s just not really how hockey works