Would you trade Devon Levi for Connor Hellebuyck with a contract extension?

[MattPie]

9 hours ago, Quint said:

Hunter Shepard is looking really good as goaltender for the Hershey Bars. Zach Fucale's there too. I am not a huge fan for spending big bucks on a goalie. By the time they're earning big bucks and they're available, their best days are usually behind them. Look at Bobrovsky, Matt Murray, etc. etc.. But the Sabres don't need an all-world goalie. Look at Adin Hill. He bounced around from team to team before backstopping Vegas to a cup. The key is the big, solid veteran defense and the defensive buy-in at forward. You don't have to be a great goalie to win a cup. You just have to have the right formula as a team. 

FUCALE!

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

Those adjustments are necessary regardless though. The data just says that Hellebuyck struggles with the most difficult shots. Dunno why folks would be surprised by this. 

All goalies struggle more the more difficult the shot. If the exceptions to that rule are only the truly elite, like Shesterkin, ie their sv% goes down on these chances but not as relatively so, it’s not a mark against acquiring Hellebuyck, unless those guys are available. Hellebuyck’s relative “weakness” in that area is still stronger than the field, the goalies we’ve been rostering of late.

There's struggles like everyone else, and there's struggles *more* than everyone else, which is the implication here. While it seems like a goaltender is plug and play, some are better in some scenarios than others, and if you team tends to give up chances in certain scenarios it helps if your goaltender isn't below average when that happens.

Once upon a time, there was a great analysis here on why Ryan Miller struggled in St Louis despite being solid here. I forget the details, but it was something like Miller liked to play at the top of the crease and relied on his D to shut down shots from the sides, where St Louis' D did not do that. So goals were pouring in on passes to the low circle. I honestly forget if this was the issue or the other way around, but it was a subtle observation and one of the best pieces of analysis I saw anywhere.

[Thorny]

35 minutes ago, MattPie said:

FUCALE!

There's struggles like everyone else, and there's struggles *more* than everyone else, which is the implication here. While it seems like a goaltender is plug and play, some are better in some scenarios than others, and if you team tends to give up chances in certain scenarios it helps if your goaltender isn't below average when that happens.

Once upon a time, there was a great analysis here on why Ryan Miller struggled in St Louis despite being solid here. I forget the details, but it was something like Miller liked to play at the top of the crease and relied on his D to shut down shots from the sides, where St Louis' D did not do that. So goals were pouring in on passes to the low circle. I honestly forget if this was the issue or the other way around, but it was a subtle observation and one of the best pieces of analysis I saw anywhere.

Ya I mean he only played 19 regular season games there, total (25 including playoffs). Not even a chance to adjust. And much too small a sample size to draw any sort of convincing statistical argument imo. That’s jumping right in to an existing system, MID season, too: Hellebuyck would have an off-season and then preseason of practice.

I also haven’t seen numbers that suggest Hellebuyck is worse than average at those types of shots, just worst than some other elite goaltenders. I see a goalie that, overall, all situations considered, is statistically elite, year in and year out, that might be simply “very good” if we *didn’t* improve our defensive structure. Considering the rumours the Sabres were asking about Hellebuyck, if we can assume those can be believed, I’d imagine Adams wouldn’t be showing interest unless he thought Hellebuyck was a fit: he has all the data we have and then some 

In addition, Hellebuyck has played under numerous systems with multiple coaches over the course of his career and he’s been very good to great year in, year out 

If the argument is Saros or Hellebuyck, sure, I get it. But there isn’t a universe in which Hellebuyck isn’t a significant upgrade over what we currently have, so unless there’s some other better option, the idea that a Hellebuyck might not improve upon Comrie and UPL in *every* area by a vast degree, and merely most, doesn’t deter me from being in favour of the addition

Im not signing him to a big extension as part of the deal, before ever seeing how he fits in. I’m merely very interested in the idea of adding what will likely be a great goalie for us, next season, for the risk of merely a 1st round pick. To me that’s worth it, but others have made clear they consider it a “rental” and don’t like it at that cost 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Thorny

[Rasmus_]

Is someone saying a 27 year old in the AHL is a worthwhile investment.  If he walks into UFA, he's a worse addition than bringing up Subban to play backup.  Sheppard was abysmal in his call up for Washington. 

Edited June 19, 2023 by Rasmus_

[Drag0nDan]

16 hours ago, Thorny said:

Ya I mean he only played 19 regular season games there, total (25 including playoffs). Not even a chance to adjust. And much too small a sample size to draw any sort of convincing statistical argument imo. That’s jumping right in to an existing system, MID season, too: Hellebuyck would have an off-season and then preseason of practice.

I also haven’t seen numbers that suggest Hellebuyck is worse than average at those types of shots, just worst than some other elite goaltenders. I see a goalie that, overall, all situations considered, is statistically elite, year in and year out, that might be simply “very good” if we *didn’t* improve our defensive structure. Considering the rumours the Sabres were asking about Hellebuyck, if we can assume those can be believed, I’d imagine Adams wouldn’t be showing interest unless he thought Hellebuyck was a fit: he has all the data we have and then some 

In addition, Hellebuyck has played under numerous systems with multiple coaches over the course of his career and he’s been very good to great year in, year out 

If the argument is Saros or Hellebuyck, sure, I get it. But there isn’t a universe in which Hellebuyck isn’t a significant upgrade over what we currently have, so unless there’s some other better option, the idea that a Hellebuyck might not improve upon Comrie and UPL in *every* area by a vast degree, and merely most, doesn’t deter me from being in favour of the addition

Im not signing him to a big extension as part of the deal, before ever seeing how he fits in. I’m merely very interested in the idea of adding what will likely be a great goalie for us, next season, for the risk of merely a 1st round pick. To me that’s worth it, but others have made clear they consider it a “rental” and don’t like it at that cost 

If it gets us to the playoffs - its worth it.  He would put up better numbers than either of the goalies we had, and if we struggled to score or were out of the playoff picture come playoff time, he's likely to fetch you back something like 70 or 80 cents on the dollar.  Maybe you get a top contenders first rounder back for your lottery pick or something.  

Assuming he helps end the playoff drought, then it's worth it for the rental.  

And to me, Levi is off the table.  He's the future in net and I'm not signing a 10M per year goalie to block his path - i do at the same time want to be upgraded for 2023-2024 because he'll be a rookie and its unfair to ask him to carry the team for 50+ starts.  

Edited June 19, 2023 by Drag0nDan

[dudacek]

Pretty much everyone agrees that the best move for the Sabres is to acquire a reliable proven veteran who can act as a bridge for Levi - ideally work in a tandem, but also carry the freight if he falters, and not act as a block if he gets hot.

Pretty much everyone wants a guy who has put up consistently strong numbers in recent years, who is available without costing us #13 or a top prospect, and who doesn’t carry a contract commitment beyond 2 years.

Why does pretty much no one recognize there is no better fit for the Sabres than Linus Ullmark?

[Zamboni]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

Pretty much everyone agrees that the best move for the Sabres is to acquire a reliable proven veteran who can act as a bridge for Levi - ideally work in a tandem, but also carry the freight if he falters, and not act as a block if he gets hot.

Pretty much everyone wants a guy who has put up consistently strong numbers in recent years, who is available without costing us #13 or a top prospect, and who doesn’t carry a contract commitment beyond 2 years.

Why does pretty much no one recognize there is no better fit for the Sabres than Linus Ullmark?

He didn’t want to be in Buffalo anymore a few years ago. Do you think that he would have changed his mind? and I thought that he had some not so kind words for Buffalo when he left. Am I remembering wrong?

[Carmel Corn]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

Pretty much everyone agrees that the best move for the Sabres is to acquire a reliable proven veteran who can act as a bridge for Levi - ideally work in a tandem, but also carry the freight if he falters, and not act as a block if he gets hot.

Pretty much everyone wants a guy who has put up consistently strong numbers in recent years, who is available without costing us #13 or a top prospect, and who doesn’t carry a contract commitment beyond 2 years.

Why does pretty much no one recognize there is no better fit for the Sabres than Linus Ullmark?

I don't disagree with your arguments for....but my only concern is whether he can be obtained for < than #13 or a top prospect.  I may not know the market very well, but at the same time I would not be surprised if another team might offer more.  Once upon a time, a former Sabre GM offered a 1st rounder for a less accomplished goalie....which certainly was an overpayment.

[Scottysabres]

I don't believe it's a failure to recognize Ullmark as a possibility. I do believe Ullmark would not come to Buffalo. He knows he'll be just a couple year filler for Levi, so, for a player clawing to stick as a team's #1 goalie, do people honestly believe Ullmark is just going to accept being a short term mentor grooming a young player to take his job?

I don't believe so. Do any of you?

[MattPie]

I took the original Ullmark suggestion as tongue-in-cheek. Is my humor filter off?

[Buffalonill]

Ullmark was average in buffalo im happy he found success but it was never going to be buffalo. 

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by Buffalonill

[Drag0nDan]

28 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

I don't believe it's a failure to recognize Ullmark as a possibility. I do believe Ullmark would not come to Buffalo. He knows he'll be just a couple year filler for Levi, so, for a player clawing to stick as a team's #1 goalie, do people honestly believe Ullmark is just going to accept being a short term mentor grooming a young player to take his job?

I don't believe so. Do any of you?

I mean... are they really trading a (presumed) vezina trophy winner who has 2 years left at 5M per? 

[Scottysabres]

9 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

I mean... are they really trading a (presumed) vezina trophy winner who has 2 years left at 5M per? 

This isn't about Bostons view of the situation, it's about Ullmarks. What Boston does due to their own self inflected cap situation is their business. What Ullmark does with his career is what I am pondering on about.

[Taro T]

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

Pretty much everyone agrees that the best move for the Sabres is to acquire a reliable proven veteran who can act as a bridge for Levi - ideally work in a tandem, but also carry the freight if he falters, and not act as a block if he gets hot.

Pretty much everyone wants a guy who has put up consistently strong numbers in recent years, who is available without costing us #13 or a top prospect, and who doesn’t carry a contract commitment beyond 2 years.

Why does pretty much no one recognize there is no better fit for the Sabres than Linus Ullmark?

IF the bridge isn't burned, and from what we know of Ullmark and Adams can believe it isn't, then absolutely would be interested in seeing Linus back in Buffalo.  The B's would be looking for a cheap backup for Swayman, from Buffalo's perspective don't expect it would be a dealbreaker to include either of Levi's backups as part of the package.  (Though would prefer trading away Comrie to them than UPL; Boston's defensive style would give UPL about as good a chance of succeeding as anybody's.  And he's young enough, he just might succeed.  Would hate to become the '20's version of the '90's/'00's version of TO when it comes to Bruins goalie trades.)

[Weave]

11 hours ago, dudacek said:

Pretty much everyone agrees that the best move for the Sabres is to acquire a reliable proven veteran who can act as a bridge for Levi - ideally work in a tandem, but also carry the freight if he falters, and not act as a block if he gets hot.

Pretty much everyone wants a guy who has put up consistently strong numbers in recent years, who is available without costing us #13 or a top prospect, and who doesn’t carry a contract commitment beyond 2 years.

Why does pretty much no one recognize there is no better fit for the Sabres than Linus Ullmark?

I just don’t see the Venn diagram of teams Linus wants to play for, goalies Adams wants in Buffalo, and teams Boston is willing to trade a goalie with as having any overlap.

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Ullmark was average in buffalo im happy he found success but it was never going to be buffalo. 

 

I'd cut my pinky off to secure average goaltending all season long 

[Night Train]

4 hours ago, Drag0nDan said:

I mean... are they really trading a (presumed) vezina trophy winner who has 2 years left at 5M per? 

You mean the guy who didn't play well in the playoffs ? That guy ? 

[Drag0nDan]

20 hours ago, Night Train said:

You mean the guy who didn't play well in the playoffs ? That guy ? 

Yes - the same one who lead the league in wins, GAA, and SV%.  

[PromoTheRobot]