Flyers working on a Carter Hart Trade

[Mb278]

Maybe because I watched Carter Hart his entire WHL career (I live near Everett unfortunately) and saw probably 25 games in person during his junior career - but I am less afraid of this kid than a lot of others out there. He backed up his WHL goalie of the year honors...with a another one. Yea its WHL - but is analogous to Levi / NCAA honors. Hart's NHL career numbers are over .900 on a mostly crap team and Risto.  He  plays a lot of games. And would probably benefit from a new team not to mention just playing for Donny vs. Torts. UPL, Murray, and a second works for me. Murray wont ever pass Greenway and probably deserves some NHL looks after a very solid year in Roch.    

[Dr. Who]

37 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Please link this here.  I need it.  Please.

I just copied it from the other site I look at. I don't have a source.

27 minutes ago, Mb278 said:

Maybe because I watched Carter Hart his entire WHL career (I live near Everett unfortunately) and saw probably 25 games in person during his junior career - but I am less afraid of this kid than a lot of others out there. He backed up his WHL goalie of the year honors...with a another one. Yea its WHL - but is analogous to Levi / NCAA honors. Hart's NHL career numbers are over .900 on a mostly crap team and Risto.  He  plays a lot of games. And would probably benefit from a new team not to mention just playing for Donny vs. Torts. UPL, Murray, and a second works for me. Murray wont ever pass Greenway and probably deserves some NHL looks after a very solid year in Roch.    

I don't think anyone would have a problem paying that price. I doubt Philly goes for it.

Edited June 7, 2023 by Dr. Who

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, Marvin said:

Just saw a thing from a Flyers guy who heard that the ask for Hart is Owen Power.

Oh, it’s not a prospect we don’t care about, a roster player we don’t care about, and a 5th round pick? 

There must be some mistake 

[Thorny]

50 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Oh, that one is different.  It is just less hilariously bad.

Make no mistake, they are laughing at some of our “proposals”, too

as far as I can decipher, the only largely common denominator I can glean is that we need to give up assets we don’t care about losing. Which is of course how trades work: you get good stuff and give up your garbage to get it. 

Edited June 7, 2023 by Thorny

[DHawerchuk10]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Make no mistake, they are laughing at some of our “proposals”, too

Let them laugh then. They are the ones trying to spin off their mediocrity.  Hart is worth a roll of the dice, but nobody is giving up much.  A high second rounder in a deep draft is more than adequate, with an average young goalie (UPL) going back.

Edited June 7, 2023 by DHawerchuk10

[GASabresIUFAN]

What about this:  Rousek, 13 & 45 for Hart, 22 and LA's 2nd in 2024.

[Thorny]

Just now, DHawerchuk10 said:

Let them laugh then. They are the ones trying to spin off their mediocrity.  Hart is worth a roll of the dice, but nobody is giving up much.  A high second rounder in a deep draft is more than adequate, with an avera.

I’m good with that being “more than enough” if everyone is good with a run back of what we have in net 

They may be the ones selling off the “mediocrity”, we are the ones falling well short of that, with what we have currently 

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What about this:  Rousek, 13 & 45 for Hart, 22 and LA's 2nd in 2024.

Take out LA’s 2nd and it’s getting closer

I could see them going for Rousek, a 2nd, and 9 spots in Rd1 for Hart, if it’s an exceptionally dry market and they really are shopping him and not just “listening” as they said 

Edited June 7, 2023 by Thorny

[ndirish1978]

21 hours ago, Eleven said:

Right?  I think there are plenty of people who would be fine with 13 for Hellebyuck.

Id have no problem trading picks for him. I just wouldn't want to trade the future at a winger position for a rental. I heard people on here and Twitter saying it would take 13 and Savoie or Kulich PLUS something and I'm thinking: pass. 

 

 

[Derrico]

8 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

Id have no problem trading picks for him. I just wouldn't want to trade the future at a winger position for a rental. I heard people on here and Twitter saying it would take 13 and Savoie or Kulich PLUS something and I'm thinking: pass. 

 

 

Right?!  No way I’m paying that unless it’s for Helly with an extension in place.  Levi and Helly for the foreseeable future would be worth it.  Hart?  Not even close. 

[PerreaultForever]

Philly is deconstructing, no question. Is there a Philly vet we'd want? I don't think so. 

Hart however, is a big upgrade and gives us stability while Levi develops. 

Give them Olafsson and their 2nd back, maybe throw in a late pick some year and get it done. 

(I do find it amusing though that so many people want to ditch UPL and/or Comrie and then they are worried about losing them if waived. Neither one matters.)

[kas23]

I like Hart and do think he would be an improvement over UPL or Comrie. That said, is this the type of player we need? The dude is 24 and likely still has ambitions of being The Guy somewhere. I don’t think this is something we can offer.
 

While competition is good, I don’t see him as a guy who will man the helm until a guy 3 years younger than him is ready to ***** his job away. Will he play nice or be a dick? It may be better bringing in a vet who knows his role. That is, shoulder the load for a couple years, knows he isn’t the future, and who will serve as a mentor to Levi until he can walk on his 2 feet. 

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, kas23 said:

I like Hart and do think he would be an improvement over UPL or Comrie. That said, is this the type of player we need? The dude is 24 and likely still has ambitions of being The Guy somewhere. I don’t think this is something we can offer.
 

While competition is good, I don’t see him as a guy who will man the helm until a guy 3 years younger than him is ready to ***** his job away. Will he play nice or be a dick? It may be better bringing in a vet who knows his role. That is, shoulder the load for a couple years, knows he isn’t the future, and who will serve as a mentor to Levi until he can walk on his 2 feet. 

I dunno, there might be a lot of value in a guy looking to secure said future, rather than a guy who knows he doesn’t have one. Hart is playing for $$$ we know we likely won’t feel pressured into giving him. But he knows someone else would 

Edited June 7, 2023 by Thorny

[kas23]

Just now, Thorny said:

I dunno, there might be a lot of value in a guy looking secure said future, rather than a guy who knows he doesn’t have one. Hart is playing for $$$ we know we likely won’t feel pressured into giving him. But he knows someone else would 

No doubt. Hart will be much hungrier that an older guy. But sometimes that hunger comes at the expense of other players. If KA thinks Hart is a standup guy, Hart knows he may be playing for his next contract elsewhere, or even is comfortable sharing the spotlight here, then by all means, bring him in. 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What about this:  Rousek, 13 & 45 for Hart, 22 and LA's 2nd in 2024.

No! If the proposal was Rousek, UPL and 45 for Hart I would be open to it. We should be able to come with a very good prospect with the 13th pick. Although I'm not adverse to giving up our first-round pick if it were part of a deal that brought back a goalie such as Saros. 

I've said this before that I believe that our GM would more likely work with the three goalies he already has on the roster, with Comrie and UPL competing for the backup. His attention is going to be more focused on upgrading the blueline this offseason. We shall see. 

[RochesterExpat]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He's had one bad year in 5 NHL seasons.  His save % year by year .917, .914, .877, .905 and .907.  The last two incredibly behind terrible Philly D groups and lousy overall Philly teams.  

I want to jump on any bandwagon that has Buffalo upgrading the current goalie situation. Carter Hart is an upgrade over UPL and Comrie. That being said, he's not as good as you've been making him out to be. Sv% is misleading and three of those 5 seasons were below league averages anyway. It's recent bias that makes the numbers appear better. If Philly's defense was the only issue, his GSAx would be positive every season (in theory and, yes, I'm aware that's not really how it works). 

2022-2023: GSAx 10.3 / GSAx per 60: 0.195 
2021-2022: GSAx -6.6 / GSAx per 60: -0.152 
2020-2021: GSAx -18.3 / GSAx per 60: -0.754
2019-2020: GSAx 6.9 / GSAx per 60:  0.177
2018-2019: GSAx -1.3 / GSAx per 60: -0.045

Of goalies to play at least 25 games in terms of GSAx:

'23: 15 of 52
'22: 35 of 53
'21: 30 of 32 (since this was the shortened season, he's still 56 of 58 when changing to 15 games)
'20: 7 of 52
'19: 25 of 54

Of goalies to play at least 25 games in terms of GSAx per 60 (usually doesn't change too much when already filtering for 25 games but worth adding):

'23: 15 of 52
'22: 35 of 53
'21: 32 of 32 (since this was the shortened season, he's still 57 of 58 when changing to 15 games--Ryan Miller was last)
'20: 7 of 52
'19: 27 of 54

So four seasons ago, he was a top 10 goalie in the league and it was his best season. This season he was 15th. The other three seasons he was negative GSAx and negative WAR.  Granted, in the past 5 seasons he's done better than any Sabres goalies except for the Messiah himself, Michael Houser, and the Leviathan in terms of GSAx per 60. 

If we want an inconsistent goalie and think the ask is anything higher than a 2nd + UPL + Murray/Weissbach, we should just sign Frederik Andersen in free agency since he'll probably take a two year deal and it won't cost us any assets.

Frederik Andersen GSAx per 60 (GSAx in parentheses) over the same timeframe.

'23: 37 of 52 (-3.5)
'22: 2 of 53 (27.8)
'21: 21 of 37 (he played 24 games, adjusted the games played for that) (-4.8)
'20: 40 of 52 (-14.3)
'19: 11 of 54 (12.0)

There's one other missing piece which is that Freddie has never had under .500 win % in terms of starts in any of his 10 seasons in the NHL. There's something to be said for that.

I also concede that I don't know what expectations we're all having for this season. If we want to just make the playoffs, I'm confident enough that Carter Hart is going to get us there. If we want to be a serious contender in the playoffs, I have my doubts that Hart is the right goalie and there aren't a ton of alternatives. Betting on Levi being the second coming of Hasek should not be considered one of them. And, now that I think about it, if we're talking about playoff goaltending, I think I'd rather have Andersen.

The window for Buffalo is wide open if we find a goalie and a D-man.  I guess we can debate the caliber goalie we need, but we shouldn't sell the farm for someone who isn't going to put us over the edge from making the playoffs to being a contender. I don't believe Hart is that goalie. To me, trading a 1st is selling the farm.

 

[Scottysabres]

2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I just copied it from the other site I look at. I don't have a source.

In to the valley of the 23/24 seadon rode the 600. Because Power ain't going anywhere. I'll ride the 3 headed Levi/UPL/Comrie monster in to the valley of the shadow of death before even entertaining this.

[Huckleberry]

Somehow Im not sure Hart is fit here now we got Levi, would prefer an older goalie on a 2-3 year deal.

[Thorny]

47 minutes ago, RochesterExpat said:

I want to jump on any bandwagon that has Buffalo upgrading the current goalie situation. Carter Hart is an upgrade over UPL and Comrie. That being said, he's not as good as you've been making him out to be. Sv% is misleading and three of those 5 seasons were below league averages anyway. It's recent bias that makes the numbers appear better. If Philly's defense was the only issue, his GSAx would be positive every season (in theory and, yes, I'm aware that's not really how it works). 

2022-2023: GSAx 10.3 / GSAx per 60: 0.195 
2021-2022: GSAx -6.6 / GSAx per 60: -0.152 
2020-2021: GSAx -18.3 / GSAx per 60: -0.754
2019-2020: GSAx 6.9 / GSAx per 60:  0.177
2018-2019: GSAx -1.3 / GSAx per 60: -0.045

Of goalies to play at least 25 games in terms of GSAx:

'23: 15 of 52
'22: 35 of 53
'21: 30 of 32 (since this was the shortened season, he's still 56 of 58 when changing to 15 games)
'20: 7 of 52
'19: 25 of 54

Of goalies to play at least 25 games in terms of GSAx per 60 (usually doesn't change too much when already filtering for 25 games but worth adding):

'23: 15 of 52
'22: 35 of 53
'21: 32 of 32 (since this was the shortened season, he's still 57 of 58 when changing to 15 games--Ryan Miller was last)
'20: 7 of 52
'19: 27 of 54

So four seasons ago, he was a top 10 goalie in the league and it was his best season. This season he was 15th. The other three seasons he was negative GSAx and negative WAR.  Granted, in the past 5 seasons he's done better than any Sabres goalies except for the Messiah himself, Michael Houser, and the Leviathan in terms of GSAx per 60. 

If we want an inconsistent goalie and think the ask is anything higher than a 2nd + UPL + Murray/Weissbach, we should just sign Frederik Andersen in free agency since he'll probably take a two year deal and it won't cost us any assets.

Frederik Andersen GSAx per 60 (GSAx in parentheses) over the same timeframe.

'23: 37 of 52 (-3.5)
'22: 2 of 53 (27.8)
'21: 21 of 37 (he played 24 games, adjusted the games played for that) (-4.8)
'20: 40 of 52 (-14.3)
'19: 11 of 54 (12.0)

There's one other missing piece which is that Freddie has never had under .500 win % in terms of starts in any of his 10 seasons in the NHL. There's something to be said for that.

I also concede that I don't know what expectations we're all having for this season. If we want to just make the playoffs, I'm confident enough that Carter Hart is going to get us there. If we want to be a serious contender in the playoffs, I have my doubts that Hart is the right goalie and there aren't a ton of alternatives. Betting on Levi being the second coming of Hasek should not be considered one of them. And, now that I think about it, if we're talking about playoff goaltending, I think I'd rather have Andersen.

The window for Buffalo is wide open if we find a goalie and a D-man.  I guess we can debate the caliber goalie we need, but we shouldn't sell the farm for someone who isn't going to put us over the edge from making the playoffs to being a contender. I don't believe Hart is that goalie. To me, trading a 1st is selling the farm.

 

How did you determine his sv% was below average this season? I have him at 31 / 79 for goalies playing at least 10 games 

19th out of 42 playing at least 30

He ranked 15th among goalies with a starters workload, 41 games. Considering his expected goals against ranked him 15th as well, I’d say ~ 15th for this past year seems about fair 

I mean.. he ranked 44th out of 107 when you include all goalies to suit up for even a moment, which includes a list littered with guys like “Matthew Berlin”, who faced 1 shot and made 1 save

Edited June 7, 2023 by Thorny

[thewookie1]

My proposal was 

UPL, 13, 45

for

Hart, 22, 87 and LA 2024 5th

[Carmel Corn]

All these different proposals are hard to keep track of.  IMHO - GMKA should stick to the principal of a 2nd round + UPL and not much beyond that for Hart.  If Philly wants our first and/or a blue chip prospect, then move on and focus on improving the defense.

[Thorny]

10 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

My proposal was 

UPL, 13, 45

for

Hart, 22, 87 and LA 2024 5th

So, switch places in rd 1 and they convert a 3rd into a 2nd? IMO won’t be enough

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So, switch places in rd 1 and they convert a 3rd into a 2nd? IMO won’t be enough

I think I liked you better when you were Hellebuyck's agent.

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I think I liked you better when you were Hellebuyck's agent.

I’m much more interested in the speculated Hellebuyck proposals, to be fair  

I like the valuations there, by way of the Sabres, much better 

Edited June 7, 2023 by Thorny

[Eleven]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I’m much more interested in the speculated Hellebuyck proposals, to be fair  

I like the valuations there, by way of the Sabres, much better 

Briere has to realize that he has, at best, the third most attractive option on the goalie market.  If he loves Hart, he'd sign him to a 7x7, since the easiest piece to rebuild around is a goalie, the Flyers are going to have plenty of space, and that represents a major raise for Hart.  Briere isn't doing that, and he knows that Hellebuyck and Saros are better.  I think he'd jump at some of the proposals that you're dismissing.