What role does Krebs fit into next season?

[GASabresIUFAN]

14 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Both numbers are around 3.5% higher, interesting.

Having an extra man definitely makes a difference in winning a battle on a non clean faceoff win.

You have to think 37.96% faceoff wins on the PK is a contributing factor to a terrible PK. We know the goaltending numbers are bad but increasing other teams’  O zone time hurts.

 

What is interesting are the Save % on the PK by the 3 main goalies and this stat is one of the primary reasons I want to move on from Comrie and UPL.

UPL Save % overall .892  PK .833

Comrie Save % overall .886  PK. 823

Anderson Save % .908  PK. .882

If we had had Anderson level goaltending last season every night we'd have let in 30 fewer goals (including 13 less on the PK), had a positive differential of about 20 goals, and probably have made the playoffs.  Comrie's and UPL's PK save % are among the worst in the NHL.  

Couple losing possession of the draw in the D zone on the PK 62% of the time with goalies that allow goals on 17-18% of the shots taken and you have a recipe for a terrible PK.

Back on topic for a minute.  If Krebs can develop into a good PKer, that will really help his long-term value to this franchise

Edited April 18, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[matter2003]

52 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Why is it sad? It’s just a function of the sport. There are 22/23 spots on an NHL team. 12/15 NBA. A third liner in hockey would be a top 18 player. A starter in the NFL could be the 22nd player.

Not really. If there are 3 forward spots on each line and 32 teams then a 3rd liner would be like a 65th best player not 18th. And that's only considering offense, not including D or goaltenders.

Edited April 18, 2023 by matter2003

[French Collection]

24 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If we had had Anderson level goaltending last season every night we'd have let in 30 fewer goals (including 13 less on the PK), had a positive differential of about 20 goals, and probably have made the playoffs.  Comrie's and UPL's PK save % are among the worst in the NHL.  

That is a huge disparity on the PK.

If they had Anderson level goaltending for only a couple of games they make the playoffs. They just missed. That level of goaltending for a season and they are challenging Tampa for third place.

28 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If Krebs can develop into a good PKer, that will really help his long-term value to this franchise

That would be awesome if he and the coaching staff decide that is his niche and develop it. He could be a long term member in that way.

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, French Collection said:

 

 

That would be awesome if he and the coaching staff decide that is his niche and develop it. He could be a long term member in that way.

It appeared to me that is exactly what they were doing with him this year.

Down the stretch he was getting tough matchups and d-zone faceoffs on a regular basis between Kyle and Zemgus and a regular shift on the PK, and playing 15 minutes a night. And as @Brawndo said, he put up some of the best defensive metrics on the team.

The number of people who don't see it the way I do have got me 2nd-guessing myself, but to me it's obvious: they've figured out that Tage and Dylan are 1/2 so he's being groomed to be a traditional 2-way 3C behind them. He's got the skillset: he's fast, he's smart, he hustles, he's edgy and he's fearless; he just has to keep reworking his game and gaining experience. it's a major shift in focus for him: he's been a playmaker on offensively bereft teams, forced to be a one-man offensive show for most of his development years.

Maybe fans expected a different type of player — an Adam Oates type? — when we got him, and that's why they're slow to come around to seeing him in this role?

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It appeared to me that is exactly what they were doing with him this year.

Down the stretch he was getting tough matchups and d-zone faceoffs on a regular basis between Kyle and Zemgus and a regular shift on the PK, and playing 15 minutes a night. And as @Brawndo said, he put up some of the best defensive metrics on the team.

The number of people who don't see it the way I do have got me 2nd-guessing myself, but to me it's obvious: they've figured out that Tage and Dylan are 1/2 so he's being groomed to be a traditional 2-way 3C behind them. He's got the skillset: he's fast, he's smart, he hustles, he's edgy and he's fearless; he just has to keep reworking his game and gaining experience. it's a major shift in focus for him: he's been a playmaker on offensively bereft teams, forced to be a one-man offensive show for most of his development years.

Maybe fans expected a different type of player — an Adam Oates type? — when we got him, and that's why they're slow to come around to seeing him in this role?

 

They had the same expectations for Krebs as they did for Mitts after seeing him dominate at the U18's and U20.  Part of Krebs' problem is that he is on a team with Thompson, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens, Quinn, Mitts, and others with as much if not more O talent. 

For him to win a spot, he's either going to out offense the competition or find a niche that others aren't filling. The hope for Krebs is he develops into a Haula or Compher type player.  Krebs is 6' 190.  That's the same size as both Haula and Compher.  Haula had 55 points for LV in 2017/18 (at age 26) and has had back to back 40+ pt seasons while winning 52-55% of his draws.  Compher fully blossomed this year at 28 with his first 50 pt campaign and he wins about 50% of his draws.  

 

[SDS]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

They had the same expectations for Krebs as they did for Mitts after seeing him dominate at the U18's and U20.  Part of Krebs' problem is that he is on a team with Thompson, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens, Quinn, Mitts, and others with as much if not more O talent. 

For him to win a spot, he's either going to out offense the competition or find a niche that others aren't filling. The hope for Krebs is he develops into a Haula or Compher type player.  Krebs is 6' 190.  That's the same size as both Haula and Compher.  Haula had 55 points for LV in 2017/18 (at age 26) and has had back to back 40+ pt seasons while winning 52-55% of his draws.  Compher fully blossomed this year at 28 with his first 50 pt campaign and he wins about 50% of his draws.  

 

He could also just say I don’t want to do that, ask for a trade, and go somewhere else and play the style he wants to play.

[MattPie]

4 minutes ago, SDS said:

He could also just say I don’t want to do that, ask for a trade, and go somewhere else and play the style he wants to play.

Very true, although he'd be kinda blind if he didn't notice that he's showing an aptitude for the game the Sabres are asking him to play.

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 minutes ago, SDS said:

He could also just say I don’t want to do that, ask for a trade, and go somewhere else and play the style he wants to play.

He could, but he doesn't seem like that kind of guy.  Krebs, Quinn, and Cozens were all teammates for Team Canada, and like the USNTDP guys, they seem particularly close.  There is also a real bond between those two groups as well.  I know Dahlin, Mitts, and Cozens are very close as they talk in interviews about traveling together and hanging together at Mitt's place during the season.  I think this group will do whatever Donnie asks them to help the team win.  I don't honestly remember any other group of Sabres being this close.

Edited April 18, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Zamboni]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

They had the same expectations for Krebs as they did for Mitts after seeing him dominate at the U18's and U20.  Part of Krebs' problem is that he is on a team with Thompson, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens, Quinn, Mitts, and others with as much if not more O talent. 

For him to win a spot, he's either going to out offense the competition or find a niche that others aren't filling. The hope for Krebs is he develops into a Haula or Compher type player.  Krebs is 6' 190.  That's the same size as both Haula and Compher.  Haula had 55 points for LV in 2017/18 (at age 26) and has had back to back 40+ pt seasons while winning 52-55% of his draws.  Compher fully blossomed this year at 28 with his first 50 pt campaign and he wins about 50% of his draws.  

 

I’d like to see him develop into a solid face off specialist / PK specialist / straw that stirs drink on any line he’s on. He’s already a terrific passer and sees the ice very well.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Zamboni said:

I’d like to see him develop into a solid face off specialist / PK specialist / straw that stirs drink on any line he’s on. He’s already a terrific passer and sees the ice very well.

 I think he is too offensively talented to become that limited.  We saw Mitts breakout finally to become a 60 pt player and I still believe Krebs has that ability as well.  He just needs to find a role to secure a spot until that breakout happens.  

Krebs' development curve reminds me of Eriksson Ek for the Wild, who finally became a 60 pt player at 26.

[mjd1001]

On 4/17/2023 at 5:06 PM, PerreaultForever said:

But who's to say Cozens won't be our #1 center next year and so a line with Thompson Cozens would be our #1 line. 

I honestly don't think a non playoff team should consider ANY line or pairing as a guarantee for the next season. Anything is possible. 

I do agree with that.

Right now the Thompson, Tuch, Skinner line looks good and was very productive this season. But things change.  You could keep them together next year but it shouldn't be written in stone.  Maybe in camp and preseason you just try other combinations (that is when you try those things) and how knows if something else clicks even better.

Its ok to pencil in the lines for next year, but that is the idea, you use pencil, so if something works better (or doesn't work as good as it did last year) you can make those changes.

[Pimlach]

3 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Not really. If there are 3 forward spots on each line and 32 teams then a 3rd liner would be like a 65th best player not 18th. And that's only considering offense, not including D or goaltenders.

He means top 18 player on in HIS team, not in the league, just like you mean top 22 player (i.e. a starter) on the football team, not in the league. 

There is no way NHL scouting of 18 year old players can be as accurate as NFL scouting drafting ~22 year old players from college.  Age means a lot but is not the only factor.   Also consider the the disparity in the  competition across the USA, Canada, Europe, and Russia versus College NCAA Division 1.  

Edited April 18, 2023 by Pimlach

[matter2003]

11 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

He means top 18 player on in HIS team, not in the league, just like you mean top 22 player (i.e. a starter) on the football team, not in the league. 

There is no way NHL scouting of 18 year old players can be as accurate as NFL scouting drafting ~22 year old players form college.  Age means a lot but is not the only one factor.   Also consider the in the disparity in the  competition across the USA, Canada, Europe, and Russia versus College NCAA Division 1.  

I think the league disparity is probably what hurts other sports the most. Football is the one sport where you have one consistent place to draw talent from and it's all in the US(outside a very very very small percentage of players that go through the NFL International programs).

Every other major sport in the US...hockey, basketball and MLB have players coming into the draft from numerous leagues and countries.

Then soccer, which is most popular worldwide, doesn't even have a draft, they have youth programs where players start training from the age of 14 or even younger at times and come up through their system and become part of the senior squad after being part of the U18 and U21 teams(or just make the jump straight from U18 if they are stars).

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, SDS said:

He could also just say I don’t want to do that, ask for a trade, and go somewhere else and play the style he wants to play.

You and your wishful thinking.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, SDS said:

He could also just say I don’t want to do that, ask for a trade, and go somewhere else and play the style he wants to play.

The grittier style that he was required to play was the reason why he was so much better as a player. To his credit, he seemed to embrace that adjustment to his prior style of play. There is still more growth potential to his game on both sides of the ice. That's a credit to him and the coaching staff.

[TheAud]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

For him to win a spot, he's either going to out offense the competition or find a niche that others aren't filling. The hope for Krebs is he develops into a Haula or Compher type player.  Krebs is 6' 190.  That's the same size as both Haula and Compher.  Haula had 55 points for LV in 2017/18 (at age 26) and has had back to back 40+ pt seasons while winning 52-55% of his draws.  Compher fully blossomed this year at 28 with his first 50 pt campaign and he wins about 50% of his draws.  

My hope is that we sign Compher, who is a Compher type player already. 

[SDS]

56 minutes ago, dudacek said:

You and your wishful thinking.

How is this wishful? Coaches try to put players in certain spots all the time and the player rejects that role. If he sees himself as a second line player, but has no future with the Sabres in that role, why would he not want to pursue that elsewhere? Why would he accept a fourth line roll or at best a third line roll just because? 

[Weave]

Just now, SDS said:

How is this wishful? Coaches try to put players in certain spots all the time and the player rejects that role. If he sees himself as a second line player, but has no future with the Sabres in that role, why would he not want to pursue that elsewhere? Why would he accept a fourth line roll or at best a third line roll just because? 

It would be interesting to get inside Krebs head regarding this.  He had to surmise that with Tage and Cozens he’s a 3rd line center at best.  Add in the Mitts wildcard and…..

You have to know that bottom 6 isn’t what he aspired to.  Does he have the confidence to go somewhere else and beat someone else for a top 6 role, or does he like the situation here and be happy with a needed role on a team that appears headed upward?

Personally, I think if he chases a top 6 role he’ll be disappointed.

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, SDS said:

How is this wishful? Coaches try to put players in certain spots all the time and the player rejects that role. If he sees himself as a second line player, but has no future with the Sabres in that role, why would he not want to pursue that elsewhere? Why would he accept a fourth line roll or at best a third line roll just because? 

It was tongue-in-cheek given your feelings about Krebs. I guess I need to up my emoji game. 

My serious response would be that I’ve liked the way Krebs has seemed to embraced his role between Girgensons and Okposo. No signs of pouting, just consistent hustle and a much-improved defensive game.

As to the bold, my guess is that it’s because he wants to be here and he’s bought into what the coaches are selling. He’s been shown a path to more ice time and he’s blazing it.

Or, in other words, maybe he’s not an entitled douchebag?

[French Collection]

5 minutes ago, Weave said:

It would be interesting to get inside Krebs head regarding this.  He had to surmise that with Tage and Cozens he’s a 3rd line center at best.  Add in the Mitts wildcard and…..

You have to know that bottom 6 isn’t what he aspired to.  Does he have the confidence to go somewhere else and beat someone else for a top 6 role, or does he like the situation here and be happy with a needed role on a team that appears headed upward?

Personally, I think if he chases a top 6 role he’ll be disappointed.

Good points.

The trajectory of this team is upward and with some continued improvement and a bit of luck they can win a Cup. Does he want to be a bottom 6 guy on a winner or a top 6 guy on a mid level or bottom team? Top teams first two lines are tough to crack.

He has a ways to go in development before he looks like top 6 NHL talent.

[Pimlach]

14 hours ago, Weave said:

It would be interesting to get inside Krebs head regarding this.  He had to surmise that with Tage and Cozens he’s a 3rd line center at best.  Add in the Mitts wildcard and…..

You have to know that bottom 6 isn’t what he aspired to.  Does he have the confidence to go somewhere else and beat someone else for a top 6 role, or does he like the situation here and be happy with a needed role on a team that appears headed upward?

Personally, I think if he chases a top 6 role he’ll be disappointed.

He knows his stature in the room and on the team,  and he is not at Tage or Cozens or Mitts level.  Men learn and develop stature when we join a group/club/organization or a team.   Some of it comes from title, experience, and some is sensed .... similar to dogs in a pack knowing their roles.   

He knows that right now any ice that the coach offers is what he has, and he must work very hard to keep.   If it means doing a different role he will do it.   He is very dedicated, he seems to genuinely love the team culture and the city too.   I want him to survive the off season so we get another year to evaluate him.  

 

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by Pimlach

[French Collection]

1 minute ago, Pimlach said:

He knows he is stature in the room and on the team,  and he is not at Tage or Cozens or Mitts level.  Men learn and develop stature when we join a group/club/organization or a team.   Some of it comes from title, experience, and some is sensed .... similar to dogs in a pack knowing their roles.   

He knows that for right now any ice that the coach offers is what he has to work very hard to keep.   If it means doing a different role he will do it.   He is very dedicated, he seems to genuinely love the team culture and the city too.   I want him to survive the off season so we get another year to evaluate him.  

 

 

Once he has established himself in a role, he will have some stature. Sometimes the leadership, intangibles and looking after details can increase one’s stature above better players.

[SDS]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It was tongue-in-cheek given your feelings about Krebs. I guess I need to up my emoji game. 

My serious response would be that I’ve liked the way Krebs has seemed to embraced his role between Girgensons and Okposo. No signs of pouting, just consistent hustle and a much-improved defensive game.

As to the bold, my guess is that it’s because he wants to be here and he’s bought into what the coaches are selling. He’s been shown a path to more ice time and he’s blazing it.

Or, in other words, maybe he’s not an entitled douchebag?

Yes he has embraced a “new role“. He doesn’t appear to be an entitled douche bag. He just appears to be a marginal hockey player right now that inspires little confidence that he’s going to blossom into something else. Maybe he does, but I would rather that be with another team if we can get something we need in a trade.
 

No one here is more patient than me, but if next year is going to be serious, let’s start putting the forks on the left and the spoons on the right.

[tom webster]

4 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Not really. If there are 3 forward spots on each line and 32 teams then a 3rd liner would be like a 65th best player not 18th. And that's only considering offense, not including D or goaltenders.

And the 27th pick in the NFL draft would be one of over 600 starters if he’s lucky. I really don’t know where you are going with this. Have a great day.

[French Collection]

Remember when many here(myself included) wanted to get Cirelli from Tampa due to their cap issues. Solid 2 way C who can contribute offensively, kill penalties and win key draws.

Krebs can be that guy with another step in development.

Cirelli is 6’0 189 lbs, same size as Krebs.

Cirelli’s best season is 44 points.