Your 2022-23 Buffalo Sabres

[JohnC]

43 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What it shows me is the exact middle of the season wasn't when Buffalo started to improve by adding back the injured players. 

Don Granato was asked on WGR why the team was playing so much better the last third of the season. He said that is when we got our injured players back and when players who were playing hurt got healthier. (Just as you stated.) Olofsson and Mitts were two examples of impaired players getting healthier resulting in better play. What should be encouraging is this team's talent base is getting deeper. There is more depth here where a backup or even a callup from Rochester should be able to fill-in without a major drop-off in team performance. 

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

Here's an interesting way of looking how the NHL roster has evolved. Depth chart based on games played/ice time:

 

1st half 21/22 * 2nd half 21/22 * Projected 22/23 opening

To summarize:

• Went 13-21-7, 109 GF, 141 GA
• Started playing Mittelstadt, Tuch, Krebs, Samuelsson, Fitzgerald and Anderson instead of Bjork, Hayden, Caggiula, Miller, Butcher and Dell
• Went 19-18-4, 120 GF, 146 GA
• Exchanged Eakin, Hayden, Pysyk, Hagg and Tokarski for Quinn, Peterka Power, Lyubushkin and Comrie

 

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It's interesting that the goal differential between the halves isn't greater.  The 2nd half showed an 11 GF improvement, but also 5 more GA. 

What it really shows me is that we still need to cut down about .5 GA/GP to be competitive.  I'm not sure the additions of Comrie and Lyubushkin can accomplish that.

As I said the split should be at game 54/55 because that's when the turn around happened. 

In the first 54 games the Sabres had 143gf and 195ga. That's 2.648gf/pg and 3.611ga/pg

In games 55-82, the Sabres had 89gf and 95ga. That's 3.179gf/pg and 3.392ga/pg

 

That's 0.53gf/pg more and 0.218ga/pg less. 

Edited July 14, 2022 by LGR4GM

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

 

As I said the split should be at game 54/55 because that's when the turn around happened. 

In the first 54 games the Sabres had 143gf and 195ga. That's 3.179gf/pg and 3.392ga/pg

In games 55-82, the Sabres had 89gf and 95ga. That's 2.648gf/pg and 3.611ga/pg

 

That's 0.53gf/pg more and 0.218ga/pg less. 

Pretty sure you flipped your stats.

[tom webster]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

 

As I said the split should be at game 54/55 because that's when the turn around happened. 

In the first 54 games the Sabres had 143gf and 195ga. That's 3.179gf/pg and 3.392ga/pg

In games 55-82, the Sabres had 89gf and 95ga. That's 2.648gf/pg and 3.611ga/pg

 

That's 0.53gf/pg more and 0.218ga/pg less. 

I think you flipped your numbers around but the point stands.

[wsam4031]

19 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Barring Injury (or other roster moves and signings) - Cost approx 63 million.

Forwards 14

Skinner Thompson Tuch

VO Mitts Quinn

Vinnie Cozens KO

Asplund Krebs JJP

Girgensons Bjork

Defense 7

Samuelsson Dahlin

Power Jokiharju

Bryson Lyubushkin

Fitzgerald

Goalies - 2

Comrie Anderson

Key Depth

Forwards - R2, Murray, Malone, Biro

Defense - Clague, Davies, Prow (updated)

Goalie - UPL, Subban

Cant say it looks promising. Another bottom 5 finish next year

[GASabresIUFAN]

22 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

As I said the split should be at game 54/55 because that's when the turn around happened. 

In the first 54 games the Sabres had 143gf and 195ga. That's 2.648gf/pg and 3.611ga/pg

In games 55-82, the Sabres had 89gf and 95ga. That's 3.179gf/pg and 3.392ga/pg

 

That's 0.53gf/pg more and 0.218ga/pg less. 

None of that changes that we gave up 290 goals last year.  That number needs to fall to around 240-250 for this team to even think about the playoffs 

[LGR4GM]

32 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

None of that changes that we gave up 290 goals last year.  That number needs to fall to around 240-250 for this team to even think about the playoffs 

It does change it, that's the point.

The last 28 ga/pg puts them at 277 goals against for a full 82 game season. The first 54 ga/pg puts them at 296ga for the season.

Trending in the correct direction while also going from the 54 game rate of 217gf to the last 28 games when we produced 261gf.

So basically it is 217gf and 296ga in an 82 game season (-79g) to 261gf and 277ga (-16g) in 82 games a season. If that 28 game sample is actually the average the team can do, we are significantly closer to the playoffs than this threads premise of a 41/41 split would have you think.

[Pimlach]

33 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

None of that changes that we gave up 290 goals last year.  That number needs to fall to around 240-250 for this team to even think about the playoffs 

I don’t see that happening unless Comrie becomes a solid NHL starter, Anderson remains healthy and a good backup, the top 6 defenseman stay healthy and improve (Powrr and Samuelsson are rookies), and the forwards stay healthy and we get improved two-way hockey from them.  

It’s too early to be negative but we look like a team drafting between 5 and 11 again next season.  I say this because of the gap in teams in the Eastern Conference and several other teams making improvements in their roster   

 

[DarthEbriate]

33 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

None of that changes that we gave up 290 goals last year.  That number needs to fall to around 240-250 for this team to even think about the playoffs 

That starts with goaltending. Goaltending leaguewide was poorer last year than normal. The Sabres gave up 2702 shots last year (10th worst in the league), so that needs to improve as well, but lets say it doesn't for math purposes:

If Anderson replaces Toker (29 gp; .899 sv%) and Comrie replaces Anderson+Dell (43 gp), that leaves 10 games for UPL (+ Levi/Portillo endseason fun). In this scenario, Anderson gives up 96 goals. If Comrie can play average-good at .914%, that's 121 goals. So 217 GA with 10 games remaining for UPL. 23-33 goals in 10 games seems about right for UPL. And there's your 240-50 goals. Simply by Comrie playing well. 

tl;dr goaltending was bad last year throughout the league, but the Sabres goalieing outside of UPL and Houser was awful.

 

[DarthEbriate]

Dang it, @LGR4GM!  While I was busy making coffee and feeding cats in the midst of my post, you were posting the same thoughts.

[dudacek]

The mid-point break was actually incidental to the point I was trying to make.

I was more approaching this from the perspective I’ve seen of “we were a bad team last year and we haven’t done anything to improve the roster.”

The point of my exercise was to show that we actually have turned over literally half the players from the team that was bad, and that the team actually improved with the turnover.

It’s just been a gradual process from the group we watched struggle in November and December:

• Tuch for Hayden
• Mitts for Eakin 
• Krebs for R2
• Peterka for Caggiula
• Quinn for Murray
• Samuelsson for Pysyk
• Power for Miller
• Lyubushkin for Hagg
• Fitzpatrick for Butcher
• Comrie for Tokarski
• Anderson for Dell

Basically we’ve moved the majority of the JAGs off the roster. But rather than replacing them with proven talent, it’s been unproven talent. They add guys they think have more to give. Lyubushkin has only played just over 200 games. Comrie 28. Even Tuch had only played about 250 when we got him.

 

Edited July 14, 2022 by dudacek

[mjd1001]

38 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

It does change it, that's the point.

The last 28 ga/pg puts them at 277 goals against for a full 82 game season. The first 54 ga/pg puts them at 296ga for the season.

Trending in the correct direction while also going from the 54 game rate of 217gf to the last 28 games when we produced 261gf.

So basically it is 217gf and 296ga in an 82 game season (-79g) to 261gf and 277ga (-16g) in 82 games a season. If that 28 game sample is actually the average the team can do, we are significantly closer to the playoffs than this threads premise of a 41/41 split would have you think.

Basically an even plus minus usually puts you in the playoff conversation.  Look at the league standings over the last few years and it amazes me just how that plus/minus line is very close to the line for who makes and who doesn't make the playoffs.

Dahlin playing a full season the way he played the 2nd half of last season, and MAYBE maturing to be an even slightly better play should knock 5-10 goals off (1 per month) of the goals allowed for the year (due to him controlling play, getting the puck out of the zone, and doing that for 40% of all ice time).  The rest of a young D-core getting better hopefully knocks another 5 goals off (less than 1 per month isn't much to ask).  Maybe another 5-10 goals off due to the forward maturing and playing better defensively (again, 1-2 per month).  Can you expect better goaltending to get you another 20 goals less for the entire year? (3-4 per month less)  That should be a reasonable hope. The above potentially gets you to 40 less goals allowed.  Now can you get another 30 goals scored for the year?  

All that would make you positive in terms of goal differential for a team and that usually gets you in the 90-95 point range and into playoff contention)

[DarthEbriate]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

Here's an interesting way of looking how the NHL roster has evolved. Depth chart based on games played/ice time:

Dahlin ––> Dahlin goes to ASG and ascends a level ––> Dahlin

One fix to this update

[dudacek]

Just now, DarthEbriate said:

One fix to this update

The team is counting on those kinda updates: the biggest improvements this year are going to come from guys like Cozens or Mitts making leaps.

[nfreeman]

I'm interested in how the internal competition shakes out in a number of areas:

- Goalie -- obviously!  The hope is that either Comrie or UPL seizes the top job and Anderson fills in well as the #2 -- but really any of the 3 of them could end up getting a plurality of the starts.

- Forward -- I think we can assume that Skinner, TT, Tuch, VO, Cozens and KO will get plenty of ice time.  But after that, it will be a free-for-all among Mitts, Krebs, Quinn, Asplund, Zemgus, Vinnie and JJP for minutes, with a lot of different possible outcomes and line combos.  

- 12th/13th forward -- this seems like it will come down to Vinnie, JJP and Krebs battling to avoid healthy-scratch status -- but maybe Quinn or Mitts starts slowly, or maybe Bjork or R2 has a stronger-than-expected camp.

- 6th/7th Dman -- I can see Fitzie and Bryson battling each other all season to stay in the lineup.

Also, we'll need to find spots for Patrick Kane, PK Subban and of course Jiri Kulich, who has no plans other than to play in the NHL this year.

Go Sabres.  I can't help it!  I'm psyched!  If Comrie or UPL delivers the goods, they are going to make the playoffs this year.

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The team is counting on those kinda updates: the biggest improvements this year are going to come from guys like Cozens or Mitts making leaps.

I believe that as well, but what interesting is that even if that doesn't happen, adding Power, Quinn, and JJP, plus hopefully full seasons of Mitts, Krebs and Tuch, should propel that offense to greater heights.

Here is the math.  We return 208 goals from last year's team.  In my mind we need to get to 250-260 to be playoff competitive.  I think Power, Quinn and JJP are worth 35-40 goals next year.  Mitts, Krebs and Tuch scored 25 total in just over half a season each.  Would 20 more be unreasonable to ask? 

Of course some guys like Vinnie, KO and possible Thompson may score a few less, but still we really don't need huge growth from Cozens or even Mitts to make this team's offense better.  It looks to me that our better depth could contribute more to our success than personal growth.  Get both and it's really going to fun to watch.

One other note is time of possession, the more we can tilt the games in our offenses' favor, the less pressure on our suspect goaltending to save the day. 

 

[sabresparaavida]

One thing I think needs some more discussion (maybe even it’s own thread?) is Mitts vs Cozens (and to a lesser extent Krebs as well) 

I’ve seen a handful of people slotting mitts in at 2C, and a lot of people reacting negatively to that, with a lot of people quite sure that Cozens will be 2C. I think that the coaching staff has a lot more confidence in Mitts than the majority of Sabres fans. 
Mitts Toi/g last year: 16:07

cozens TOI/g last year: 15:53

That is pretty close, and points to a pretty significant competition between the two in camp next year. (Krebs had 14:44) Mitts also missed time due to injury and was eased back in which brought his TOI/g down some. 
In March, mitts got a good amount more ice time with 16:55 TOI/G compared to 15:20 for Cozens. In April however, Cozens got slightly more time with 16:16 TOI/G compared to Mitts 16:00. 
In March/April, mitts had 5 goals and 16 points, while Cozens had 1 goal and 11 points. 
 

I think right now, the edge goes to Mitts being the 2C next year over Cozens, but honestly I think it’s more likely that lines 2/3 will be treated similarly, with very similar ice time. 

[sabresparaavida]

Also with that, Krebs had 14:16 TOI/g in March, and 13:36 TOI/g in April. He totaled 4 goals and 12 points in these months.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

- Forward -- I think we can assume that Skinner, TT, Tuch, VO, Cozens and KO will get plenty of ice time.  But after that, it will be a free-for-all among Mitts, Krebs, Quinn, Asplund, Zemgus, Vinnie and JJP for minutes, with a lot of different possible outcomes and line combos.  

I envision Donnie G creating a offense oriented kids line that start 75% to 80% in the Ozone and plays protected minutes.  Similar to what Ruff did with Vanek, Roy and Max back in 05/06.  That line might start with JJP Krebs and Quinn to get their feet wet.  Like the Vanek line, they'll be a huge matchup problem on offense for most 4th lines around the league.

I honestly think the only real forward camp battle is going to be Vinnie vs JJP vs Bjork and R2.  If JJP shows he's ready, Vinnie becomes the 13th forward and the rest go to Rochester.  If JJP is not ready, he goes to the Amerks, Vinnie draws in the 12 forward with Bjork and r2 battling for the 13th forward slot.  

That said there are an infinity number of lineup combo if DG wants to start from scratch at camp.  I have a feeling he likes VO with Mitts together and Skinner, TT and Tuch together.  After that he'll slot based on what works in camp.

I am in agreement with you that this could be a playoff team if they stay healthy and Comrie gives even Ullmark level goaltending.

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

One thing I think needs some more discussion (maybe even it’s own thread?) is Mitts vs Cozens (and to a lesser extent Krebs as well) 

I’ve seen a handful of people slotting mitts in at 2C, and a lot of people reacting negatively to that, with a lot of people quite sure that Cozens will be 2C. I think that the coaching staff has a lot more confidence in Mitts than the majority of Sabres fans. 
Mitts Toi/g last year: 16:07

cozens TOI/g last year: 15:53

That is pretty close, and points to a pretty significant competition between the two in camp next year. (Krebs had 14:44) Mitts also missed time due to injury and was eased back in which brought his TOI/g down some. 
In March, mitts got a good amount more ice time with 16:55 TOI/G compared to 15:20 for Cozens. In April however, Cozens got slightly more time with 16:16 TOI/G compared to Mitts 16:00. 
In March/April, mitts had 5 goals and 16 points, while Cozens had 1 goal and 11 points. 
 

I think right now, the edge goes to Mitts being the 2C next year over Cozens, but honestly I think it’s more likely that lines 2/3 will be treated similarly, with very similar ice time. 

The bold has it.

Any discrepancy between ice time between the 2 will be a result of ice time earned, though. I don't see the Sabres approaching it from the perspective of a 3C they want to get 14 minutes and a 2C they want to get 16.

I'm more interested in how they mix up the lines and who gets shifted to the wing. It sounds like the early plan is Zemgus at 4C, but Rochester convinced me that Krebs is more suited to centre.

I do think there is a chance the 4th line this year will be non-traditional and often include Quinn, Peterka and/or Krebs depending on the matchups Donnie wants higher up the lineup, specifically Girgs/Asplund in defensive conscience roles. That doesn't mean 8 minutes a game though, they'll get their 12.

Edited July 14, 2022 by dudacek

[sabresparaavida]

It wouldn’t surprise me if the plan is to have a non-traditional forward group with 4 scoring lines. Something to the effect of:

skinner-Tage-Oloffson

Asplund-mitts-Quinn

okposo-Cozens-Tuch 

JJP-Krebs-Vinny/girgs 

If Quinn or JJP really break out next year, it would give the Sabres a lot of flexibility in the lineup, with scoring throughout the lineup. 
 

skinner-Tage-Quinn/JJP

Asplund-mitts-Oloffson 

JJP/quinn-Cozens-Tuch

Okposo-Krebs-Vinny/Girgs

 

I had Asplund so high in both lineups because he really balances out a line and helps to tilt the ice in our favor.

 

[Mustache of God]

21 hours ago, Thorny said:

Like the lineup I posted better but, good stuff 

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch

Olofsson - Cozens - Quinn 

Asplund - Krebs - Okposo

Girgensons - Mittelstadt - Hinostroza

(Peterka is in if ready, there’ll be an injury) 

Samuelsson - Dahlin

Power - Jokiharju

Bryson - Lyubushkin

Fitzgerald

Comrie

Anderson

I'm not a fan of these proposed forward lines. Putting Krebs, a set-up man, with Asplund, who hasn't shown the ability to finish, doesn't sit well with me. Instead, I'd like to see a 4th lines composed of Zemgus, Asplund and KO acting as a pure shutdown line which would play to Asplunds strengths. I hope he'll continue to develop an offensive touch but until he does, he'll remain an offensive anchor if he's on a scoring line.

Here's what I'd like to see to start the season:

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch

Olofsson - Mitts - Krebs

Peterka - Cozens - Quinn

Girgensons - Asplund - KO

Hinistroza as the 13th.

 

 

Edited July 14, 2022 by Mustache of God

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 minute ago, Mustache of God said:

I'm not a fan of these proposed forward lines. Putting Krebs, a set-up man, with Asplund, who hasn't shown the ability to finish. Instead, I'd like to see a 4th lines composed of Zemgus, Asplund and KO acting as a pure shutdown line which would play to Asplunds strengths. I hope he'll continue to develop an offensive touch but until he does, he'll remain an offensive anchor if he's on a scoring line.

Here's what I'd like to see to start the season:

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch

Olofsson - Mitts - Krebs

Peterka - Cozens - Quinn

Girgensons - Asplund - KO

Hinistroza as the 13th.

 

 

I think Hiney the vet will be a fixture with Cozens on line 3 (they had developed good chemistry last season and that is part of why he was signed) with P and Q being cycled in there on a rotation basis.

[Mustache of God]

4 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

I think Hiney the vet will be a fixture with Cozens on line 3 (they had developed good chemistry last season and that is part of why he was signed) with P and Q being cycled in there on a rotation basis.

I'd rather see JJ & Quinn on the same line to ramp up the offense with Cozens acting as the responsible 2-way player. JJ & Quinn have an offensive upside that's higher than Vinny's, whose never scored more than 16 goals/39 points in a season.

In the last 15 games of last season, Hinistroza had 2 points and Cozens had 5 (3 of which were on the PP). 

Not looking too deeply, if I assume Hinistroza's 2 points and cozens remaining 2 non PP points were generated playing together, a combined 4 points over 15 games is not going to cut it.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

3 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

I'd rather see JJ & Quinn on the same line to ramp up the offense with Cozens acting as the responsible 2-way player. JJ & Quinn have an offensive upside that's higher than Vinny's, whose never scored more than 16 goals/39 points in a season.

In the last 15 games of last season, Hinistroza had 2 points and Cozens had 5 (3 of which were on the PP). 

Not looking too deeply, if I assume Hinistroza's 2 points and cozens remaining 2 non PP points were generated playing together, a combined 4 points over 15 games is not going to cut it.

Cool beans.

Sounds good.

I just like saying Hiney as in Hiney-Stroka.

Edited July 14, 2022 by Sabres Fan in NS
need all the letters for that more goodly sound ...