2022 NHL Draft Rankings

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Isn’t Krebs the best C we’ve traded for in a decade?

O'Reilly is the best C the Sabres have acquired by trade in the last decade.  Not too shabby, even if he's not with the team anymore.  It's not hard to fathom a similar deal.  Think about it--teams underpaid for him TWICE.

Edited December 30, 2021 by Eleven

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 12/27/2021 at 4:53 PM, LGR4GM said:

In his draft year Alex Nylander has 9pts in 7 wjc20 games. Just a reminder this isn't the be all end all. 

Nylander - the Matt Ellis of top 10 draft picks?

[LGR4GM]

 

[Digger]

2 hours ago, jsb said:

 

You've been awfully nice, patient and funny lately, your Scrooge reputation has been tarnished. Did you get visited by 3 different ghosts this Holiday Season??

Man I hope the scary one (of the 3 ghosts) is the Ghost of Sabres Present.

[Weave]

Ostlund is a good hockey name.  There is your pick.

[LGR4GM]

26 minutes ago, Weave said:

Ostlund is a good hockey name.  There is your pick.

He  might be available in the 20s... hard to tell at this point. 

[dudacek]

5 hours ago, Thorny said:

We knew we were weak at C when we had Eichel, and we already had Cozens, Mittelstadt, and Thompson at the time. We’ve swapped out a franchise C for a player who likely ends up a 3C, in Krebs. Now we are ok at C? Why, because expectations are non-existent? It’s about filling the ranks (or increasing the likelihood of doing so) with players who are *good* in those roles relative to the league, not merely filling the 4 spots with adequate NHL players. 

The need at C is still huge in terms of the pipeline(and the roster) relative to the other positions, it’s not overstated at all IMO and I’m not going to minimize it because some of our prospects look good. I’ve seen nothing from Casey and Peyton to make me think they have a better than, or equal to, 50/50 shot at becoming 2C, and while I think Thompson is a serviceable 2C I don’t see that as the case on a good team. 

We need a couple Cs to increase/stabilize the odds here or I’d wager we’ll be weak at C down the road, unless development comes up aces

 

Quote

If your concern is projecting roster spots down the road, 2 years from now, you’ve got 5 players potentially tracking for 4 centre spots, 10 players tracking for 8 winger spots, 5 tracking for 3 LD spots and 2 for 3 RD spots.

Based on need, RD is the clear preference. 

If you are concerned about slotting players into their proper roles on the roster, LD is the only position we are good enough, or deep enough, at to even consider passing on BPA. 

In my opinion, we have 4 centres (Tage, Mitts, Cozens, Krebs) 4 wingers (Tuch, Olofsson, Quinn, Peterka) and 5 defencemen (Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson, Johnson, Jokiharju) who have shown signs of being top 6 forwards/top 4 defencemen. Maybe Rosen should be included given his draft pedigree, but I haven’t seen it yet. Power, Dahlin and maybe Cozens are the only ones who have given us reason to believe they might be first-liners and none of them are that yet.

We have talent coming at every position except right D. We need elite talent at every position except left D.

Take the best player available.

Years until UFA:

• Thompson 3
• Ruotsalainen 3
• Mittelstadt 4
• Cozens 6
• Krebs 7
•  
• Olofsson 2
• Okposo 2
• Girgensons 2
• Bjork 3
• Asplund 3
• Murray 4
• Tuch 5
• Skinner 6
• Quinn 6
• Peterka 7
• Rosen 8 
• Poltapov 8
• Kisakov 8
•  
• Bryson 3
• Dahlin 4
• Samuelsson 6
• Johnson 7
• Power 8
•  
• Fitzgerald 3
• Jokiharju 4

[dudacek]

Looking at the latter half of the top 10 in some recent drafts to see where taking “the next best centre” rather than “BPA” got you or may have got you.

2008: 6 Filatov, 7 Wilson, 8 Boedker, 9 Bailey, 10 Hodgson -> 14 Zach Boychuk 16 Joe Colborne

Winger Josh Bailey was the best of the bunch at 9, reaching for a centre from outside the top 10 would have got you a bust

2009: 6 Ekman-Larsson, 7 Kadri, 8 Glennie, 9 Cowen, 10 Paajarvi -> 16 Peter Holland

Kadri was the right pick at 7, Glennie a horrible reach at 8, reaching outside the top 10 would have been another bust

2010: 6 Connolly, 7 Skinner, 8 Burmistrov, 9 Granlund, 10 McIlrath -> 14 Schwartz

Burmistrov was a horrible pick. Granlund and Schwartz would have been fine, but ironically ended up as wingers.

2011: 6 Zibanejad 7 Schiefele 8 Couturier 9 Hamilton 10 Brodin -> 15 JT Miller

Great year for picking or even reaching for a centre. Miller is clearly better than the 4 guys who went before him.

2012: 6 Lindholm, 7 Dumba 8 Pouliot 9 Trouba 10 Koekkoek -> 12 Girgorenko 13 Faksa

Terrible year for centres, one top 6 centre in the entire draft, Hertl at 17.

2013: 6 Monahan 7 Nurse 8 Ristolainen, 9 Horvat, 10 Nicushkin -> 12 Domi 14 Wennberg

Both centres picked were reasonable value, reaching for either of the next 2 wasn’t going to solve your C problem

2014: 6 Virtanen, 7 Fleury, 8 Nylander, 9 Ehlers, 10 Ritchie -> 16 Larkin

This was the year to reach. Larkin likely should have been a top 5 pick

2015: 6 Zacha 7 Provorov 8 Werenski 9 Meier 10 Rantanen -> 16 Barzal

Given the strength of this draft, Strome at 3 and Zacha were clear reaches, but Barzal should have been top 10

2016: 6 Tkachuk, 7 Keller, 8 Nylander, 9 Sergachev, 10 Jost -> 11 Brown, 12 McLeod

Jost Brown McLeod with McAvoy and Chychrun still on the board make this a poster child of centre reaching.

2017: 6 Glass, 7 Anderson, 8 Mittelstadt, 9 Rasmussen, 10 Tippett -> 11 Villardi, 12 Necas 13 Suzuki

Just a bizarre draft for centres - 8 of the 1st 11 picks were centres, but just 2 of those 8 (Hischier and Pettersson) are now proven NHLers. Meanwhile, 5 more centres went between 12 and 21 and all of them are good NHLers.

***

Over that entire decade-long stretch, 3 1Cs taken between picks 6 and 10 and all 3 were taken in the same year. Meanwhile, just one outright bust, Scott Glennie.

Looks like Barzal and Larkin were the only centre “reaches” who teams would have been right to reach for.

It will be interesting to see if anyone emerges from the mess of 2017. The top 3 centres from 2018 look  like reaches (Kotkaniemi, Hayton, Delandrea). Zegras looks very promising from 2019.

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by dudacek

[Weave]

Good work, Duds.  Let the draft come to you, don't chase the draft

[Thorny]

Who's advocating for reaching?

We have several 1sts and what'll be a high second. If the system isn't unbalanced now (it is) it certainly will be if Adams goes a third year straight without taking a C in the first two rounds. I'll continue to say C should be a target at some point within those picks because trading up, (or down) into a tier (on the off chance none are in range with any of the picks) is definitely a way to ensure you don't suffer an unbalanced system due to luck of the draw and/or pick up assets if you move down (no, not from our first pick). No need to reach and take a clearly inferior player (seriously, who advocates for that?), merely the ability to use picks as currency, if necessary, to ensure you have your bases covered. 

But go off. 

Edited December 30, 2021 by Thorny

[Weave]

Using draft currency to move into a different tier ≠ chasing the draft. If there is a center they like and they have a package that makes sense to go get him, absolutely do it.

[LGR4GM]

Owen Beck 6' 190lb C, Feb 3rd bday playing his first OHL season because cancelation last year. 

He has been elevated to an A ranked prospect by central scouting and will be available in the back half of the first or the early 2nd. Don't have much more on him other than he was OHL rookie of the month for November I think. He's 3rd on his team in points which is good for a rookie. 

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/647942/owen-beck

Edited December 30, 2021 by LGR4GM

[Flashsabre]

12 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

If your concern is projecting roster spots down the road, 2 years from now, you’ve got 5 players potentially tracking for 4 centre spots, 10 players tracking for 8 winger spots, 5 tracking for 3 LD spots and 2 for 3 RD spots.

Based on need, RD is the clear preference. 

If you are concerned about slotting players into their proper roles on the roster, LD is the only position we are good enough, or deep enough, at to even consider passing on BPA. 

In my opinion, we have 4 centres (Tage, Mitts, Cozens, Krebs) 4 wingers (Tuch, Olofsson, Quinn, Peterka) and 5 defencemen (Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson, Johnson, Jokiharju) who have shown signs of being top 6 forwards/top 4 defencemen. Maybe Rosen should be included given his draft pedigree, but I haven’t seen it yet. Power, Dahlin and maybe Cozens are the only ones who have given us reason to believe they might be first-liners and none of them are that yet.

We have talent coming at every position except right D. We need elite talent at every position except left D.

Take the best player available.

Years until UFA:

• Thompson 3
• Ruotsalainen 3
• Mittelstadt 4
• Cozens 6
• Krebs 7
•  
• Olofsson 2
• Okposo 2
• Girgensons 2
• Bjork 3
• Asplund 3
• Murray 4
• Tuch 5
• Skinner 6
• Quinn 6
• Peterka 7
• Rosen 8 
• Poltapov 8
• Kisakov 8
•  
• Bryson 3
• Dahlin 4
• Samuelsson 6
• Johnson 7
• Power 8
•  
• Fitzgerald 3
• Jokiharju 4

That 6 beside Skinner is painful, so very painful.

[Hank]

11 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

2010: 6 Connolly, 7 Skinner, 8 Burmistrov, 9 Granlund, 10 McIlrath -> 14 Schwartz

Burmistrov was a horrible pick. Granlund and Schwartz would have been fine, but ironically ended up as wingers.

 

Minor quibble, Granlund is centering the top line in Nashville and is averaging a PPG. 

[kas23]

We have been a bottom dweller for many years, so have needs everywhere. If you can’t see a drafted center becoming a 1C, you don’t draft him in the 1st and you take the BPA. We need elite talent pretty much everywhere (except maybe LHD). 

[LGR4GM]

Here's what happens when you reach

 

[LGR4GM]

20 minutes ago, kas23 said:

We have been a bottom dweller for many years, so have needs everywhere. If you can’t see a drafted center becoming a 1C, you don’t draft him in the 1st and you take the BPA. We need elite talent pretty much everywhere (except maybe LHD). 

In the first round, the Sabres would be wise to invest more scouting assets into players who are not LHDs. This isn't a don't scout everyone but a which players get 10th looks versus which player only gets 3. Good news is there's almost 0 lhds to take in the first round. 

 

[kas23]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

In the first round, the Sabres would be wise to invest more scouting assets into players who are not LHDs. This isn't a don't scout everyone but a which players get 10th looks versus which player only gets 3. Good news is there's almost 0 lhds to take in the first round. 

 

Agreed. I just think it’s shortsighted not to draft a potentially elite winger or RHD in order to draft a center with a 2C ceiling (or even a poor man’s 1C ceiling) just because we haven’t drafted many C’s in the last few drafts. That’s how bad teams stay bad. 

[Buffalonill]

On 12/29/2021 at 2:57 PM, LGR4GM said:

We have 3 first round picks. Yes we can draft a rhd.

Nemec is a top 5 draft pick we need to use our pick for a center 

 

[Buffalonill]

17 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Here's what happens when you reach

 

This guy clearly has zero clue whats going on with Boucher if he thinks hes a bust lol. 

Buffalo would love this guy 

[sabresparaavida]

18 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

This guy clearly has zero clue whats going on with Boucher if he thinks hes a bust lol. 

Buffalo would love this guy 

Don’t really have much idea what’s up with him, but 3 points in 17 college games does not look good for a forward. What’s up with him?

[Buffalonill]

47 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

Don’t really have much idea what’s up with him, but 3 points in 17 college games does not look good for a forward. What’s up with him?

his style of play is not liked in the college level imo he hits everything that moves hes going to be like tom Wilson when he develops 

Like tkachuk he will be better at the nhl level 

Edited December 31, 2021 by Buffalonill

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

This guy clearly has zero clue whats going on with Boucher if he thinks hes a bust lol. 

Buffalo would love this guy 

Boucher was significantly overdrafted. Who cares if he hits everything if the rest of the package is questionable? Boucher is gonna end up a 3rd line guy. 

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

Nemec is a top 5 draft pick we need to use our pick for a center 

No we don't. Let's say we pick 5th, which I believe a very likely scenario. It goes Wright, Savoie, Cooley, Lambert... what center are you taking over Nemec? What if it goes Kemell instead of lambert, are you taking Lambert over Nemec?

What you say here, is how you end up with Boucher 15 picks early. 

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

This guy clearly has zero clue whats going on with Boucher if he thinks hes a bust lol. 

Buffalo would love this guy 

For the record, he didn't call him a bust. 

[LGR4GM]

54 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

Don’t really have much idea what’s up with him, but 3 points in 17 college games does not look good for a forward. What’s up with him?

He's a bottom 6 forward drafted at 10th overall instead of 25th overall. He's Senyshyn but not as bad of a pick. Ottawa could have taken Cole Sillinger but did that, woof.

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Boucher was significantly overdrafted. Who cares if he hits everything if the rest of the package is questionable? Boucher is gonna end up a 3rd line guy. 

No we don't. Let's say we pick 5th, which I believe a very likely scenario. It goes Wright, Savoie, Cooley, Lambert... what center are you taking over Nemec? What if it goes Kemell instead of lambert, are you taking Lambert over Nemec?

What you say here, is how you end up with Boucher 15 picks 25-40 early. 

For the record, he didn't call him a bust. 

I'm sorry I need to make a correction, Boucher was drafted 25-40 picks early. He should have gone middle of the 2nd round. He is the perfect Senyshyn comparable. EP had him at 45 and I had him at 52. I stand by that now that we have more information. Boucher can still be a nice player but he projects into that 3-4th line grinder role with a nice shot.