SDS Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: Ah, sorry. I'm saying that if his model has Power so low, even if you think his model isn't great, that should really make you think. I'm trying to say that it's unlikely his model is so bad that Power is some outlier at 7% who should actually be way higher. The margin of error of the model isn't going to be that far off. https://hockeyprospecting.com/ His model though had Rossi at 1 last year which is interesting. That’s what I assumed, but I don’t think your comment read like that. It read as if the model was incorrect as opposed to what your intent was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 1 minute ago, SDS said: That’s what I assumed, but I don’t think your comment read like that. It read as if the model was incorrect as opposed to what your intent was. Ah, I'm saying that even if the model is not totally accurate, it's not so inaccurate that a 7% guy is really a 70% guy. Personally I think the model is reasonable accurate. Also this is the definition of a star. "probability of turning into an offensive star in the NHL (0.7+ career ppg for a forward and 0.45+ career ppg for a defenseman)." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 So I guess if we are adding a 2nd top 10 pick, I need to be looking at guys like Kent Johnson? What’s up with this guy, is he an Sonny Milano/Alex Nylander type? Skills competition stud who doesn’t make things happen when the bullets start flying? Because those hands are pretty slick. http://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/michigan-star-kent-johnson-intriguing-option-for-sabres-early-at-nhl-draft/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 4 hours ago, LGR4GM said: Lol. It's not so just lol. It 100% is. That is must-see context. Without it that tweet is absolutely worthless. Are the projections horse ***** or are they accurate? I’m not taking anyone’s word for it if I don’t see those lists. What’s the star % on Beniers, Eklund and the like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 If this draft was up to me and I had two early picks, I'm taking Eklund and Beniers. We have a pick at 33 which seems like a perfect place to add another D. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said: If this draft was up to me and I had two early picks, I'm taking Eklund and Beniers. We have a pick at 33 which seems like a perfect place to add another D. I’m with you. No objections to Power, but the more I look at the top players, those are my favourites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 Watch us draft 3 busts in the top ten Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 8 hours ago, Hoss said: It 100% is. That is must-see context. Without it that tweet is absolutely worthless. Are the projections horse ***** or are they accurate? I’m not taking anyone’s word for it if I don’t see those lists. What’s the star % on Beniers, Eklund and the like? Pay the man and look at his stuff. 8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said: If this draft was up to me and I had two early picks, I'm taking Eklund and Beniers. We have a pick at 33 which seems like a perfect place to add another D. Exactly. In this draft, get the forward the talent while you can because there will be D talent into round 3. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 10 hours ago, dudacek said: So I guess if we are adding a 2nd top 10 pick, I need to be looking at guys like Kent Johnson? What’s up with this guy, is he an Sonny Milano/Alex Nylander type? Skills competition stud who doesn’t make things happen when the bullets start flying? Because those hands are pretty slick. http://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/michigan-star-kent-johnson-intriguing-option-for-sabres-early-at-nhl-draft/ His release is crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 1 minute ago, LGR4GM said: If you draft power I'm done drafting D . Yes zellweger will be good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 Just now, Buffalonill said: If you draft power I'm done drafting D . Yes zellweger will be good I can't justify drafting Power #1 overall. It just isn't there and while I think he will be good, he's got issues that seem to be glossed over far to often. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: I can't justify drafting Power #1 overall. It just isn't there and while I think he will be good, he's got issues that seem to be glossed over far to often. Power is going to be a good number 2 but he will not be the best. Its a huge mistake drafting him at 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 (edited) 12 hours ago, SDS said: Maybe I don’t know what you mean. Are you saying the model is wrong or are you saying the player isn’t as good because the model doubts their star power? It's a predictive model. It's somewhat like looking at a weather forecast: they are wrong a lot and when they predict "rain" when you wake up on a sunny day everyone scoffs at it, but it's certainly not *good* news. It means there's a better chance than on other days that there will be rain. There's a better chance Power won't live up to what one might expect from a 1OA than what we generally see heading into a draft. To a large extent we already all knew this We don't need to convince ourselves Power is a great or even good 1OA because we landed the pick. He's what he always was, by forecast: a good player but a ceiling lower than average for a 1OA Edited June 18, 2021 by Thorny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashsabre Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, Thorny said: It's a predictive model. It's somewhat like looking at a weather forecast: they are wrong a lot and when they predict "rain" when you wake up on a sunny day everyone scoffs at it, but it's certainly not *good* news. It means there's a better chance than on other days that there will be rain. There's a better chance Power won't live up to what one might expect from a 1OA than what we generally see heading into a draft. To a large extent we already all knew this We don't need to convince ourselves Power is a great or even good 1OA because we landed the pick. He's what he always was, by forecast: a good player but a ceiling lower than average for a 1OA Exactly. You can only draft what is there. There is no player in this draft that would be a good 1 OA pick. There are no guarantees in this draft. There will be good NHL players drafted this year but the best player might be drafted 12th or outside the 1st round. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 Just now, Flashsabre said: Exactly. You can only draft what is there. There is no player in this draft that would be a good 1 OA pick. There are no guarantees in this draft. There will be good NHL players drafted this year but the best player might be drafted 12th or outside the 1st round. But there are players that would be better 1oa picks. That's the point of the modeling. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 17 minutes ago, Flashsabre said: Exactly. You can only draft what is there. There is no player in this draft that would be a good 1 OA pick. There are no guarantees in this draft. There will be good NHL players drafted this year but the best player might be drafted 12th or outside the 1st round. I'd bet my bottom dollar *someone* emerges from this draft as deserving of that pick - there's just a much lower probability of "hitting" on that guy at 1OA. If we have three darts at it high up, it significantly increases the odds. Agree the best in the draft could come from anywhere - that's the case in every year and even more especially this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thorny said: I'd bet my bottom dollar *someone* emerges from this draft as deserving of that pick - there's just a much lower probability of "hitting" on that guy at 1OA. If we have three darts at it high up, it significantly increases the odds. Agree the best in the draft could come from anywhere - that's the case in every year and even more especially this one. Not really. There is a clear and historical drop in production starting from the 1st overall pick down into the 3rd round when things level out. So sure it could but realistically, teams are pretty good near the top of round 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 1 minute ago, LGR4GM said: Not really. There is a clear and historical drop in production starting from the 1st overall pick down into the 3rd round when things level out. So sure it could but realistically, teams are pretty good near the top of round 1. Well it's not going to come from round 5 but I more meant it could come anywhere in the top 2 rounds, even round 3. Point has a case for best player in 2014 and he went in the 3rd - this year's draft is even more of a crapshoot. Guys that shouldn't be picked later, are, all the time - I've read enough of your posts to know why you think Point went too late Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Thorny said: Well it's not going to come from round 5 but I more meant it could come anywhere in the top 2 rounds, even round 3. Point has a case for best player in 2014 and he went in the 3rd - this year's draft is even more of a crapshoot. Guys that shouldn't be picked later, are, all the time - I've read enough of your posts to know why you think Point went too late The best player from the 2014 draft is Leon Draisaitl. I agree guys go late all the time that turn out good but suggesting that the best can come from anywhere is really downplaying the odds of getting Point in the 3rd compared with finding a Point at 1oa. The draft is about playing the odds and you are talking about hopes and prayers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 Since the 2014 draft was brought up who would you rather have? Point or Ekblad because Power projects closer to Ekblad than he does a Hedman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: Since the 2014 draft was brought up who would you rather have? Point or Ekblad because Power projects closer to Ekblad than he does a Hedman. Point, but even Ekblad represents a lofty ceiling for Power. Anyways, the spirit of what I was trying to say is that just because Power probably won't be a star doesn't mean there won't be stars in the draft - there will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thorny said: Point, but even Ekblad represents a lofty ceiling for Power. Anyways, the spirit of what I was trying to say is that just because Power probably won't be a star doesn't mean there won't be stars in the draft - there will be. Oh. Sorry I thought you were arguing something else. Yes, there will be stars in this draft and we should work to identify them and draft them while not worrying about rankings. That's why Power is not on top of my list. I think he will be good but we are going to miss out on a Point if we go chasing the Ekblad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crusader1969 Posted June 18, 2021 Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 4 hours ago, LGR4GM said: no offence to Austin but if Bob McKenzie has 10 scouts all ranking Power at #1 and a guy from a website having him #6. I'm going with the scouts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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