2021 NHL Draft Rankings

[LGR4GM]

Speaking of this guide, it finally talks about Power in a way that resonates with me. 

[Thorny]

We currently have 9 picks outside the first round in the upcoming draft. I'm looking to see some diversity in the development leagues we select from to confirm our smaller scouting group isn't a detriment to range of focus. 

[rakish]

@WildCard Answering your question in the Eichel thread. On the one hand Guenther only played 12 games, on the other hand he outscored a good upper class player (Neighbors, but I would need to check box scores to see how Guenther played with Neighbors) and his numbers at age 16 are pretty good too.  I got a month to think about it.

[LGR4GM]

 

[Flashsabre]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Hearing from who?  Teams and scouts aren’t openly mentioning who they are taking at this point of the year. With the craziness of this season I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be close, McTavish has a playoff type game that teams covet.  I just wonder who he is hearing it from.

[Flashsabre]

https://www.tsn.ca/matthew-beniers-rides-boundless-energy-to-top-of-nhl-draft-class-1.1660547

[LGR4GM]

 

Edited June 28, 2021 by LGR4GM

[WildCard]

[LGR4GM]

 

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

NHLe using transitions in the same year. So if a player played part of a year in the SHL and then the NHL what that point production transferred as. 

[LGR4GM]

Just remember to take all NHLe models (NHLe = NHL equivalency) with a grain of salt. 

[LGR4GM]

I do want to point something out though. The NCAA, OHL, USHL, and WHL are all ahead of the QMJHL in this model and I think that tracks well with players too. The order is correct with the NCAA at the top followed by the OHL and USHL really close with a small gap down to the WHL and then the big QMJHL gap. 

NCAA: 0.194

 

OHL: 0.144

USHL: 0.143

WHL: 0.141

 

QMJHL: 0.113

[LGR4GM]

So the thing to remember about this modeling is that is would be like if Beniers in the middle of his NCAA season started playing NHL games. It doesn't account for year over year growth or multi-year transitions. That is at least how I understand it. 

[WildCard]

10. I think New Jersey would consider moving the fourth-overall selection for a good, young defenceman.

From Friedman's 31 Thoughts

[LGR4GM]

 

 

 

Edited June 28, 2021 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

Oh we could draft Luke Mittelstadt, he looks exactly like his brother. 

[dudacek]

It occurred to me when reading over some draft rankings, what a leap of faith the top end of the draft will be.

Virtually every prospect will be ranked on an extraordinarily small sample size, filtered through distant memories of impressions left from a season that wrapped 18 months before, with no testing and limited knowledge of physical growth and trends.

Whose to say the guys ranked 8th or 9th wouldn’t have established themselves as top three candidates in a normal year? That Chaz Lucius would have put up Cole Caufield goal numbers and been this year’s Alexander Holtz, or that Artu Raty’s struggles continued and plunged him all the way into the 2nd round?

I’m not going to be shocked if somebody says (for example) Kent Johnson is the most talented player in the draft and plucks him top 3 or that nobody believes his talent overcomes his style and he falls like Josh Ho-Sang.

Its that kind of year.

Edited June 29, 2021 by dudacek

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

It occurred to me when reading over some draft rankings, what a leap of faith the top end of the draft will be.

Virtually every prospect will be ranked on an extraordinarily small sample size, filtered through distant memories of impressions left from a season that wrapped 18 months before, with no testing and limited knowledge of physical growth and trends.

Whose to say the guys ranked 8th or 9th wouldn’t have established themselves as top three candidates in a normal year? That Chaz Lucius would have put up Cole Caufield goal numbers and been this year’s Alexander Holtz, or Artu Raty plunged all the way into the 2nd round?

I’m not going to be shocked if somebody says (for example) Kent Johnson is the most talented player in the draft and plucks him top 3 or that nobody believes his talent and he falls like Josh Ho-Sang.

Its that kind of year.

Yep.  Tough year to have a lean scouting staff.  But these issues were all anticipated last off-season when the decision to go lean was made.  Soooo, hopefully the snarky comment from 1 of the owners pans out, because otherwise they're going to #### this opportunity up.

[GASabresIUFAN]

37 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It occurred to me when reading over some draft rankings, what a leap of faith the top end of the draft will be.

Virtually every prospect will be ranked on an extraordinarily small sample size, filtered through distant memories of impressions left from a season that wrapped 18 months before, with no testing and limited knowledge of physical growth and trends.

Whose to say the guys ranked 8th or 9th wouldn’t have established themselves as top three candidates in a normal year? That Chaz Lucius would have put up Cole Caufield goal numbers and been this year’s Alexander Holtz, or that Artu Raty’s struggles continued and plunged him all the way into the 2nd round?

I’m not going to be shocked if somebody says (for example) Kent Johnson is the most talented player in the draft and plucks him top 3 or that nobody believes his talent overcomes his style and he falls like Josh Ho-Sang.

Its that kind of year.

The kinda year a team needs a deep scouting department and a good analytical staff.  Oops.  Good things we are going to trade 3 of our best players to get tons of ammo in this crapshoot.

Edited June 29, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

I now have 9 final or June rankings. 15 players appeared on all the lists with another 5 on 8 of the 9.  There are 32 players exactly who appear on 5 or more of the rankings.

Tier 1 - Powers; 

Tier 2 - Beniers and Eklund

Tier 3 - Clarke, Hughes, and Guenther

Tier 4 - Johnson, McTavish, Wallstadt and Edvinsson

Big Gap

Tier 5 Lucius, Lysell, Sillingner and Raty

Tier 6a (8 ballots, except Olausson who was on 9) - Svechkov, Lambos, Olausson,

Tier 6b -Chibrikov, Coronato, Cossa, Othmann, 

Gap

Tier 7 (7 Ballots) -  Robertsson, Pinelli, Samoskevich

Tier 8 (6 Ballots) - Ceulemans, Stankoven, Rosen and L'Heureux.  I won't be surprised if these guys actually go before the guys in Tier 7 especially Ceulemans and Stankoven.

Gap 

Tier 9 (5 Ballots) - Bolduc, Toumaala, Bourgault and Pastujov

Gap 

Tier 10 (4 ballots) - Behrens and Chayka

[Curt]

6 hours ago, Taro T said:

Yep.  Tough year to have a lean scouting staff.  But these issues were all anticipated last off-season when the decision to go lean was made.  Soooo, hopefully the snarky comment from 1 of the owners pans out, because otherwise they're going to #### this opportunity up.

 

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The kinda year a team needs a deep scouting department and a good analytical staff.  Oops.  Good things we are going to trade 3 of our best players to get tons of ammo in this crapshoot.

I’m not so sure that this viewpoint holds true.  In a year where there are few games to scout and not a lot of data to analyze, I would think that a small scouting/analytics staff would be less of a hinderance, not more.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, Curt said:

 

I’m not so sure that this viewpoint holds true.  In a year where there are few games to scout and not a lot of data to analyze, I would think that a small scouting/analytics staff would be less of a hinderance, not more.

How in G-d's name are 6 guys going to cover and access 300 kids across 2 continents in over 25 different leagues?  It's hard enough with 20 guys and with full seasons, but when you start limiting the number of opportunities for the scouts to see the guys in person it makes it that much harder.  

Here are the leagues players were drafted from last year:  OHL, WHL, QMJHL, USHL/USNDTP, Big 10, Hockey East, SHL, SWE-1, Sweden Jrs, SM-Liiga, Finnish Jrs, KHL, Russian Jrs, DEL (germany), Swiss-1, Czech, AJHL, OJHL, BCHL, CCHL, plus High Schools from Ontario, Minn, Wis, Mass, Conn and Indiana.  That's 26 leagues right there and it doesn't include Latvians, Slovakians, and other Europeans.  

Edited June 29, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, Curt said:

 

I’m not so sure that this viewpoint holds true.  In a year where there are few games to scout and not a lot of data to analyze, I would think that a small scouting/analytics staff would be less of a hinderance, not more.

Would be interested to hear (or, more accurately, read) your elaboration on this thought.

Would expect this is the year you need scouts talking to as many people as possible to get an accurate handle on what these kids may become.  Which ones are genuinely team 1st off the ice?  Which ones are workout warriors?  Which ones are you insulting the box of rocks by comparing their intelligence to said box of rocks?  Which ones overcame personal adversity?  Which ones had that light bulb truly go on and have an understanding of the game & not just the physical tools?  Which ones have hinted that they're finally getting it and could be a steal in the 6th or 7th?  Which ones come from a family where the kids all add 6" their freshman year of college?  Can a skeleton crew get those answers from a large enough sample?

There are just as many prospects as there always are, but very little actual game film on them.  Knowing the intangibles better than the other 31 teams is how to find the gems that slide.  A 1/2 sized scouting staff & essentially 1 man analytics department has a Herculean task to make the right calls on this.

Where it could be better than what they had is, IF they really did prune the staff correctly (impossible to know at this point from the outside) then they at least don't have people in house touting what, will become apparent in time, wrong choices.  But this crew will almost definitely miss on gems just because they never were looking in the right places.  And we have no data on whether the right people were asked to leave.  This has the makings of turning into Video Scouting as the primary tool rather than a supplement all over again.

[LGR4GM]

20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

How in G-d's name are 6 guys going to cover and access 300 kids across 2 continents in over 25 different leagues?  It's hard enough with 20 guys and with full seasons, but when you start limiting the number of opportunities for the scouts to see the guys in person it makes it that much harder.  

Here are the leagues players were drafted from last year:  OHL, WHL, QMJHL, USHL/USNDTP, Big 10, Hockey East, SHL, SWE-1, Sweden Jrs, SM-Liiga, Finnish Jrs, KHL, Russian Jrs, DEL (germany), Swiss-1, Czech, AJHL, OJHL, BCHL, CCHL, plus High Schools from Ontario, Minn, Wis, Mass, Conn and Indiana.  That's 26 leagues right there and it doesn't include Latvians, Slovakians, and other Europeans.  

The internet and in person where you can. 

Most of the leagues had restrictions on fans and scouts so that's something to remember. Also, Taro is asking about knowing the kids and how you do that and you do it the same way you always do. You talk to the coaches and the parents and the kids and you get a feel. Also the on ice play generally gives you a good hint. 

I think they need a bigger scouting staff but I am not prepared to say this staff can't do their jobs when I don't have evidence of that. We'll know in about a month. 

22 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

How in G-d's name are 6 guys going to cover and access 300 kids across 2 continents in over 25 different leagues?  It's hard enough with 20 guys and with full seasons, but when you start limiting the number of opportunities for the scouts to see the guys in person it makes it that much harder.  

Here are the leagues players were drafted from last year:  OHL, WHL, QMJHL, USHL/USNDTP, Big 10, Hockey East, SHL, SWE-1, Sweden Jrs, SM-Liiga, Finnish Jrs, KHL, Russian Jrs, DEL (germany), Swiss-1, Czech, AJHL, OJHL, BCHL, CCHL, plus High Schools from Ontario, Minn, Wis, Mass, Conn and Indiana.  That's 26 leagues right there and it doesn't include Latvians, Slovakians, and other Europeans.  

I can't think of many players that are worth drafting from HS hockey or who pan out. Every once in a while but they usually come from Wisconsin or Minnesota. The rest of the kids who are good end up in the CHL or the USHL. 

[LGR4GM]

23 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Would be interested to hear (or, more accurately, read) your elaboration on this thought.

Would expect this is the year you need scouts talking to as many people as possible to get an accurate handle on what these kids may become.  Which ones are genuinely team 1st off the ice?  Which ones are workout warriors?  Which ones are you insulting the box of rocks by comparing their intelligence to said box of rocks?  Which ones overcame personal adversity?  Which ones had that light bulb truly go on and have an understanding of the game & not just the physical tools?  Which ones have hinted that they're finally getting it and could be a steal in the 6th or 7th?  Which ones come from a family where the kids all add 6" their freshman year of college?  Can a skeleton crew get those answers from a large enough sample?

There are just as many prospects as there always are, but very little actual game film on them.  Knowing the intangibles better than the other 31 teams is how to find the gems that slide.  A 1/2 sized scouting staff & essentially 1 man analytics department has a Herculean task to make the right calls on this.

Where it could be better than what they had is, IF they really did prune the staff correctly (impossible to know at this point from the outside) then they at least don't have people in house touting what, will become apparent in time, wrong choices.  But this crew will almost definitely miss on gems just because they never were looking in the right places.  And we have no data on whether the right people were asked to leave.  This has the makings of turning into Video Scouting as the primary tool rather than a supplement all over again.

The 1 man analytics department is the biggest problem on this team. The scouts will be fine if they are any good and having 6 voices instead of 16 might make it easier to discuss things and really understand things better. There is such a thing as too many cooks. Now that isn't to say the Sabres have this correct but again we have to wait a month to find out. 

You won't believe the ending on this. 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

36 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The internet and in person where you can. 

Most of the leagues had restrictions on fans and scouts so that's something to remember. Also, Taro is asking about knowing the kids and how you do that and you do it the same way you always do. You talk to the coaches and the parents and the kids and you get a feel. Also the on ice play generally gives you a good hint. 

I think they need a bigger scouting staff but I am not prepared to say this staff can't do their jobs when I don't have evidence of that. We'll know in about a month. 

I can't think of many players that are worth drafting from HS hockey or who pan out. Every once in a while but they usually come from Wisconsin or Minnesota. The rest of the kids who are good end up in the CHL or the USHL. 

Most of the HS kids were from Culver and Shattucks-St Mary’s.  Toews, Stafford, KO, Crosby, Keller, MacKinnon, among many other played at Shattucks. Culver isn’t as deep, but Ryan Suter and Nik Dow’s played there.