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LGR4GM

GDT: 10/24/19 Sabres @ Rangers, 7pm ET, MSG and WGR550

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There may be numbers to prove otherwise, but I have it in my head that Henrik Lundqvist always seems to play tough against the Sabres.  I hope tonight can prove it is just my imagination and that we can light him up!

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2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Which speaks to the flaw everyone forgets about in Corsi: it rewards the teams that blast the puck into crowds from anywhere, as opposed to the teams that are doing more important things, like creating actual scoring chances.

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Very true. I have started to look at xGF more than corsi of late. It still has it's limits but when your pp is 10% better and your xGF is 1.3 better at 5v5 as in this game, you should win. 

In fairness, it's not a flaw -- it's an inherent limitation.

You can start with Corsi, to get a sense of some stuff. But then those shot maps are going to be helpful (like the one below (I love the "Geez Buffalo")). And then Tierney has those graphs that indicate shot quality/quantity -- I still don't quite follow those, though.

 

That shot map is a thing of effing beauty, btw. The Sharks had a close edge in raw Corsi from that game, but the Sabres had a clear edge in chances. 

Rakru has said it: It's not "shoot mentality" and pucks to the net; it's about getting bodies to the net.

Edited by That Aud Smell
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I always thought GF and GA were the most important stats...after W-L....I'm getting old

Edited by nucci
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38 minutes ago, nucci said:

I always thought GF and GA were the most important stats...after W-L....I'm getting old

To each their own. I'll posit, though: Interest or disinterest in predictive metrics is not a function of your age.

I don't understand the #fancystats all that well, but I enjoy engaging with them. As a long-suffering fan, those metrics help me better answer those enduring questions such as "so, is this team for real?" or "are they really as bad as their record indicates?"

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4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Did you hear the Krueger quote the other day to the effect of “we’re not one of those teams that wants to take a lot of low-percentage shots.”

Which speaks to the flaw everyone forgets about in Corsi: it rewards the teams that blast the puck into crowds from anywhere, as opposed to the teams that are doing more important things, like creating actual scoring chances.

Wasn't this the year we would no longer need a proxy for possession, we would have actual possession times?

46 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

To each their own. I'll posit, though: Interest or disinterest in predictive metrics is not a function of your age.

I don't understand the #fancystats all that well, but I enjoy engaging with them. As a long-suffering fan, those metrics help me better answer those enduring questions such as "so, is this team for real?" or "are they really as bad as their record indicates?"

"You are your record."

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36 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

"You are your record."

Until you're not.

Or, until your 10-game winning streak turns into a bottom-3-pace skid into irrelevance.

Larger point being (as ever): You are your record, sure. The #fancystats offer insight into whether you will also be your record in the coming weeks and months.

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7 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Until you're not.

Or, until your 10-game winning streak turns into a bottom-3-pace skid into irrelevance.

Larger point being (as ever): You are your record, sure. The #fancystats offer insight into whether you will also be your record in the coming weeks and months.

How closely did the 17/18 fancystats predict the 18/19 final standings?

Genuinely asking.

Edited by dudacek

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Got some good news this afternoon - a work project that I was dreading and that was going to preclude me from going to this game was postponed, freeing me up to go to the game, my wife agreed to go last minute, and I scooped up pretty good seats at a good price at 4:50 pm!

Game on!

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1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

Got some good news this afternoon - a work project that I was dreading and that was going to preclude me from going to this game was postponed, freeing me up to go to the game, my wife agreed to go last minute, and I scooped up pretty good seats at a good price at 4:50 pm!

Game on!

Need to meetup for game on Feb 7th, gonna be there at msg with all the fisches

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22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

How closely did the 17/18 fancystats predict the 18/19 final standings?

Genuinely asking.

confused confusion GIF by The Bachelorette

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Woke up today and I thought, I expect the Sabres to win, I think we are good. 

Excited for the game

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1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

Until you're not.

Or, until your 10-game winning streak turns into a bottom-3-pace skid into irrelevance.

Larger point being (as ever): You are your record, sure. The #fancystats offer insight into whether you will also be your record in the coming weeks and months.

You are always your record.

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My football team actually sings this a lot.  Seems fitting for this season.  😄

 

the song is in the end of this vid 😛

Edited by Huckleberry

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