2019 Off Season

[dudacek]

Wasn’t good enough last year

Botterill will stick to his plan of Hutton holding the fort until Ullmark takes it away.

If that doesn’t happen this year, then he might look for another option.

[WildCard]

19 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Anybody concerned about goaltending?

Hutton, IMO, is not a starter... Ullmark has even more question marks.    Still think they need to make a move at that position to compete with Hutton and Ullmark in camp.   Hammond?  Meh

That and 2C, that's about it

[Doohickie]

3 hours ago, WildCard said:

Not playing Sobotka/Tage all year

...maybe.

I fully expect Tage to play with the big club, at the very least as a callup.  And until Sobotka's off the roster, Sobotka's on the roster. 

So this point is a bit premature.

[Randall Flagg]

35 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Anybody concerned about goaltending?

Hutton, IMO, is not a starter... Ullmark has even more question marks.    Still think they need to make a move at that position to compete with Hutton and Ullmark in camp.   Hammond?  Meh

Yes.

[triumph_communes]

4 hours ago, WildCard said:

It's a hell of a lot better than whatever the ***** ESPN puts out today. No, I don't give two shits that LeBron got his hair cut or someone said something about the bad orange man

What a low bar

[kas23]

5 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Anybody concerned about goaltending?

Hutton, IMO, is not a starter... Ullmark has even more question marks.    Still think they need to make a move at that position to compete with Hutton and Ullmark in camp.   Hammond?  Meh

I think we’ll see improvement in GT via our added D and our GT new coach, who supposedly did a great job in Carolina last year. Not worried. 

[nfreeman]

I wanted another credible #1 goalie possibility brought in this summer, and at this point I assume it's not going to happen.

This is another factor that it will be fair to evaluate JB on.

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

I wanted another credible #1 goalie possibility brought in this summer, and at this point I assume it's not going to happen.

This is another factor that it will be fair to evaluate JB on.

As time passes JBOT just seems to be too patient with guys... giving them chance after chance after chance to prove themselves.  He did it with Housley, TT, Mittlestadt, now guys like Hutton and Larsson, etc...  

It's good to be patient, but some are just so obvious to the casual fan, that it's just too much.    He waits and waits, while the team nosedives and pulls the trigger after the fact.

[nfreeman]

57 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

As time passes JBOT just seems to be too patient with guys... giving them chance after chance after chance to prove themselves.  He did it with Housley, TT, Mittlestadt, now guys like Hutton and Larsson, etc...   

It's good to be patient, but some are just so obvious to the casual fan, that it's just too much.    He waits and waits, while the team nosedives and pulls the trigger after the fact. 

I'm a believer in patience.  And JB hasn't been extreme in this regard either.  Howie only got 2 seasons, and his goalie out of the gate was a very troubled and erratic Lehner behind a shaky D group.  Similarly, this will be Ullmark's 2nd NHL season.  He's shown enough to get another real look, hopefully behind a better D group and with better coaching.

Your point is fair regarding TT and probably Mitts too.  I would've preferred a good amount of AHL time for both of them last year.

Larsson is a respectable PK/4th liner who has an edge.  I'm fine with bringing him back, although I also would've been fine if his spot had gone to Asplund.  Probably one more year for that to happen. 

[French Collection]

I've always liked Asplund, hope he makes the jump soon. I think he will be better all round than Larsson, seems to have more creativity.

[thewookie1]

For the many who wanted a #1 goalie, I’d like to know from where? We’d have to trade assets for one. And trade Ullmark/Hutton for it to make any sense. 

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, French Collection said:

I've always liked Asplund, hope he makes the jump soon. I think he will be better all round than Larsson, seems to have more creativity.

 I think the plan is for Asplund to take Larson’s spot sometime in the next year.

Just like the plan is to have Borgen take Bogosian’s.

I think Jason has a chart in his office with these moves all planned out and he sticks with them.

[TrueBlueGED]

On 7/17/2019 at 6:45 PM, Curt said:

What if there are no other big moves this offseason?  No big trade to acquire a top-6 forward.  What would everyone’s reaction be?

I believe that Botterill wants to trade Risto, but what if the good deal he is looking for just doesn’t materialize this summer?  What if it doesn’t materialize until mid season?  I feel like Botterill is pretty patient so I could see it happening.  Just curious about how everyone would handle that.

My reaction would simply be Botterill has failed until the record at game 82 says he hasn't. 

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 I think the plan is for Asplund to take Larson’s spot sometime in the next year.

Just like the plan is to have Borgen take Bogosian’s.

I think Jason has a chart in his office with these moves all planned out and he sticks with them.

Where do you think his own unemployment is marked out? 

[TrueBlueGED]

15 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I wanted another credible #1 goalie possibility brought in this summer, and at this point I assume it's not going to happen.

This is another factor that it will be fair to evaluate JB on.

Did you ever think it was going to happen? Hope sure, but not for a single second did I think Botterill was going to bring someone in. He gave Hutton 3 years and an asset to protect Ullmark. No way was he bailing on that plan after one season. He's banking on a new goalie coach fixing it. 

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

My reaction would simply be Botterill has failed until the record at game 82 says he hasn't. 

Where do you think his own unemployment is marked out? 

November 2031, when he and Kim clash over whether or not to trade two-time Conn Smythe winner Jack Eichel and launch a full rebuild.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Did you ever think it was going to happen? Hope sure, but not for a single second did I think Botterill was going to bring someone in. He gave Hutton 3 years and an asset to protect Ullmark. No way was he bailing on that plan after one season. He's banking on a new goalie coach fixing it. 

I suppose I thought it was 30% possible or so,  but that the factors you mentioned limited the likelihood to that level.  

[Thorny]

On 7/19/2019 at 10:26 AM, Randall Flagg said:

I can see a million ways in which this is an ~80 point team...in fact I think that's my default guess looking at the current roster.

I agree with this. The Sabres have made some nice moves but that big, jump-start-a-turnaround move is one we are still waiting for. I can see the Sabres being better in spite of not making it, but wouldn't bet on it without. 

[Thorny]

On 7/19/2019 at 10:44 AM, Randall Flagg said:

I'm only reasonably confident in Dahlin improving in a standings-meaningful way among those three players, I'm not convinced we won't be seeing plenty of either of 17/72, and new head coach might not be any good at coaching hockey, so it's a bit tough to buy into all of that at once and assume huge improvement from a supposed 65 point baseline.

In fact Ralph seems like the exact kind of guy to try and 'get more out of' a European like Sobotka

The Sabres as it stands still do not have a second line to compete with those in the east, and still have goalies that were problematic, and stand as good of chance at getting a slumping Skinner as they did to get the one they got last year. There are an impossible amount of things to take into account, but assuming everything is average this just looks like a low-80s point roster to me as it stands. 

I'll happily revisit when we pull off the blockbuster for awesome 2C

Can you expand upon this? He averages 30 goals a season throughout his career, so the chances of him slumping being as likely as the 40 goal Skinner of last season coming to pass again only seems fair if we are talking a revert back to his ~30 being considered a "slump". 

At least for me I don't think <30 is more likely than ~40. 

Quote

How much of those guys do you predict we see this year? I wonder if a numbers game (and Pilut's shoulder) puts them in Rochester most of the year.

Quote

Depends on trades and their development, but personally I expect your Roch scenario.

I like Pilut, but I think his strength will always be an issue, similar to ERod.

Where does Pilut slot on the LHD depth chart once he's healthy? Arguably 2nd after Dahlin? Him or McCabe I guess, right. It would seem reasonably likely that injury permitting he's in Buffalo, unless we see a big bounce back from Scandella. 

Wasn't it about 50/50 whether Pilut would make game 1? Can't quite remember. 

Edited July 20, 2019 by Thorny

[Thorny]

5 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

My reaction would simply be Botterill has failed until the record at game 82 says he hasn't. 

Where do you think his own unemployment is marked out? 

You still on the playoff-bubble or bust (canning) bandwagon? 

[TrueBlueGED]

16 minutes ago, Thorny said:

You still on the playoff-bubble or bust (canning) bandwagon? 

100% yes. There were issues with the roster when he took over, sure, but not so bad that 3 years isn't enough to even sniff the playoffs. 

[Tondas]

5 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

100% yes. There were issues with the roster when he took over, sure, but not so bad that 3 years isn't enough to even sniff the playoffs. 

3 years seems to be the standard to turnaround a franchise these days.  I have turned around many businesses in my 30 year career and have found that it takes about 50% of the time that it was broken to fix it.  So if the Sabres have not made the playoffs in 8 years (broken), it will take about 4 years to see success.  So I would give JBOT 4 years.  But I agree, I think that sniffing the playoffs this year is a good barometer.

[TrueBlueGED]

2 minutes ago, Tondas said:

3 years seems to be the standard to turnaround a franchise these days.  I have turned around many businesses in my 30 year career and have found that it takes about 50% of the time that it was broken to fix it.  So if the Sabres have not made the playoffs in 8 years (broken), it will take about 4 years to see success.  So I would give JBOT 4 years.  But I agree, I think that sniffing the playoffs this year is a good barometer.

That's the thing, though: the Sabres weren't broken. One could argue Botterill broke them, if going by team record in his first season. 

[Broken Ankles]

6 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Did you ever think it was going to happen? Hope sure, but not for a single second did I think Botterill was going to bring someone in. He gave Hutton 3 years and an asset to protect Ullmark. No way was he bailing on that plan after one season. He's banking on a new goalie coach fixing it. 

This is spot on.  I would only add that his changes on Defense & forthcoming changes on Defense also reveal it too was a contributing factor in his mind, and can be improved upon.  JB is tied to this duo for at least one more year, and probably two as a bridge to UPL.  If either goalie fails next season, it’s a huge black eye for him.  

[Broken Ankles]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

November 2031, when he and Kim clash over whether or not to trade two-time Conn Smythe winner Jack Eichel and launch a full rebuild.

 

[Tondas]

5 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

That's the thing, though: the Sabres weren't broken. One could argue Botterill broke them, if going by team record in his first season. 

Fair point Blue.  But we're not sure he did break it.  We can either give him a 4th year to find out or fire him after 3.  If we fire JBOT after 3 years, then we are  now 4.5 years out to fixing the problem.  It's a good discussion.  The kind of discussion that Terry should have but is not experienced enough in hockey to make a proper decision.  This is why I think the Sabres need a Pres of Hockey Ops.