Holy Mackerel! Sabres Win Dahlin Lottery!

[That Aud Smell]

:unsure: (But perfectly fine w/ that one going well overhead.)

Huh?

I don't believe "I need to see it in the NHL" is an extreme. I also don't believe any of these opinions indicates what kind of person you are. Jesus. Positive and realistic are not mutually exclusive.

My issue with the post is that it said, essentially, "Look! Dahlin can do something that Nathan Beaulieu can't do." But it's apples and oranges, big time.

 

Anyone up for some Grigorenko clips? People flooded into then-HSBC Arena to get a glimpse at the wunderkind in the summer of 2012. Him and Girgensons.

JESUS, guys. JESUS.

 

I’m telling you, man. If you see that kid’s film and don’t feel a bit giddy, I’m just not sure what to say to you.

 

Grigorenko. FFS.

 

p.s. The giddiness is no assurance of NHL success and of Dahlin fulfilling his promise. But so what?!

[Robviously]

He wan't comparing Dahlin to Grigorenko. He was comparing fan reaction for both players.

 

The internet sucks for communication.

Only when people aren't listening. PA's point was pretty clear. And, yes, it wasn't that long ago that we were pretty exciting about Grigorenko around here.

[That Aud Smell]

Wait, wait, wait.

 

Just STOP. Full stop with the Grigorenko parallel.

 

If that’s what’s happening. I’m not sure.

 

That was recent. Attentive fans were intrigued by the possibilities associated with a talented but enigmatic (read: lazy) Russian with a checkered junior career, whose stock fell in the draft.

 

Dahlin is widely, universally, reputed to be a generational prospect on D.

 

Get it right.

Edited May 22, 2018 by That Aud Smell

[bunomatic]

Some of the best in the game have said he's better than they were at his age. Grigorenko, not so much.

[That Aud Smell]

Thought project: What would Dahlin pooh-poohers have said about the wheel landing on fabled #11 and the Sabres winning the right to select that Quebecois horse who was drawing comparisons to Beliveau?

[LGR4GM]

Some of the best in the game have said he's better than they were at his age. Grigorenko, not so much.

Dahlin does things with the puck that look like Crosby or Mcdavid. He'll go around, through, or between you. His work ethic is amazing both on and off the ice. By the time he's 22, he'll be a top 10 NHL defender. His skating is elite. Hockey iq is elite. Passing elite. His shot is the only thing in his game that's just good. Yup, it will take him time to adjust, but dear God once he does.

[PASabreFan]

Thought project: What would Dahlin pooh-poohers have said about the wheel landing on fabled #11 and the Sabres winning the right to select that Quebecois horse who was drawing comparisons to Beliveau?

I haven't pooh-poohed Dahlin, just the over the top reaction to him.

[bunomatic]

Dahlin does things with the puck that look like Crosby or Mcdavid. He'll go around, through, or between you. His work ethic is amazing both on and off the ice. By the time he's 22, he'll be a top 10 NHL defender. His skating is elite. Hockey iq is elite. Passing elite. His shot is the only thing in his game that's just good. Yup, it will take him time to adjust, but dear God once he does.

:thumbsup:

[pi2000]

I haven't pooh-poohed Dahlin, just the over the top reaction to him.

 

He's a decent mix of defensemen taken #1 overall in years past.... a bit of Gord Kluzak and Roman Hamrlik, with a sprinkle of Erik Johnson and Chris Phillips to round out his game.   

 

Maybe they should take that Svechnikinoyninov and put him on Eichel's wing for 20 years.

 

Great idea? or Greatest idea?

Edited May 22, 2018 by pi2000

[Randall Flagg]

I use "Beaulieu-ing" as a verb because I've never seen a defenseman struggle with shot selection and finding lanes from the blue line like Beaulieu has. 

So when I see moves that I've literally never seen before that involve creating those lanes out of nothing, I see no issue with something that isn't really a direct "comparison". 

Beaiouliouing

[dudacek]

I haven't pooh-poohed Dahlin, just the over the top reaction to him.

What is your opinion on Dahlin?

[That Aud Smell]

I haven't pooh-poohed Dahlin, just the over the top reaction to him.

Circa 1970: “Psssshhh. *Beliveau*. Gimme a break! This frog hasn’t even played a day in the league, and neither has the team!”

[Weave]

He's a decent mix of defensemen taken #1 overall in years past.... a bit of Gord Kluzak and Roman Hamrlik, with a sprinkle of Erik Johnson and Chris Phillips to round out his game.   

 

Maybe they should take that Svechnikinoyninov and put him on Eichel's wing for 20 years.

 

Great idea? or Greatest idea?

 

Ouch.

 

Favorite Kluzak moment?  Larry Playfair ragdolling him near the end of a 1st period, and Gordie coming out for the 2nd wearing stitches over his left eye.

[Derrico]

Only when people aren't listening. PA's point was pretty clear. And, yes, it wasn't that long ago that we were pretty exciting about Grigorenko around here.

Oh I know exactly what he was saying. Hence my reaction.

 

Yes, Sabres fans were talking themselves into a guy being the Savior who dropped big time in the draft and had several warts in his game. Paid scouts who do this for a living have universally praised Dahlin. It's not reasonable to compare fan reaction between the two players. No scout was giving Grigs the accolades Dahlin is receiving.

 

This isn't even Sabrespace Pumping his tires or just watching highlight reels. Listen to interviews with the director of European scouting, NHL scouts, people that have watched closely and actually do this for a living.

 

The comparison between fan reaction to Dahlin and Grigorenko is frankly a joke.

 

Edit - Should mention I'm all for a contrarian point of view.  Ofcourse the boards need that and it creates discussion.  But this is as close as I've ever seen PA to trolling.

Edited May 22, 2018 by Derrico

[LGR4GM]

What's the conversion rate for SHL scoring to first year NHL scoring? 

[PASabreFan]

Circa 1970: “Psssshhh. *Beliveau*. Gimme a break! This frog hasn’t even played a day in the league, and neither has the team!”

One of my favorite Bert stories is his going in the lockerroom before Game 6 (I believe) in Montreal in 1975 and telling his teammates: "Let's go beat these frogs!"

What is your opinion on Dahlin?

I have none. Why would I? Should I watch two YouTube clips and present myself as an expert here?

 

See you in October. The name Rasmus Dahlin shall not pass my lips again until his first shift on opening night.

[LGR4GM]

WGR 550‏Verified account @WGR550 1m1 minute ago

More

We're #DialedInOnDahlin as @coreypronman of The Athletic joins Howard and Jeremy next on WGR to talk more about the #NHLDraft and Rasmus Dahlin!

[That Aud Smell]

One of my favorite Bert stories is his going in the lockerroom before Game 6 (I believe) in Montreal in 1975 and telling his teammates: "Let's go beat these ###### frogs!"

 

Ha - that is a good one. Not heard it before.

 

 

I have none. Why would I? Should I watch two YouTube clips and present myself as an expert here?

 

Who's presenting themselves as an expert? I'm not, just to be clear.

 

I'm presenting myself as a moderately informed fan with no credentials or bona fides to judge hockey talent, who is super excited about a prospect who looks like he's going to be amazing -- maybe, maybe -- some day -- the best d-man the team has ever had.

[LGR4GM]

Rasmus Dahlin according to Corey Pronman on WGR. 

http://www.wgr550.com/media/audio-channel/05-22-corey-pronman-athletic-howard-and-jeremy-rasmus-dahlin

[That Aud Smell]

Rasmus Dahlin according to Corey Pronman on WGR. 

http://www.wgr550.com/media/audio-channel/05-22-corey-pronman-athletic-howard-and-jeremy-rasmus-dahlin

 

Hedman and Doughty as near-comparables (i.e., Dahlin projects a bit better than both).

 

Yes. Please.

Also interesting that Pronman pumps the tires on the generational talk. I'm good with that.

What's the conversion rate for SHL scoring to first year NHL scoring? 

 

.58.

 

This appears to suggest that Dahlin would post ~20-25 points as a rookie d-man.

[Brawndo]

From the Athletic this AM, Pronman on Dahlin.

 

IS HE GENERATIONAL?

 

I lean to no. I’ve heard this term being thrown around on Dahlin in public circles for the past few months. I’ve heard peers refer to him as the Connor McDavid of defensemen. I watched McDavid a lot coming up. If that’s the bar to be generational, Dahlin falls short of it. McDavid is an 80-grade skater (meaning one of the best of all-time), with 70-grade skills and hockey sense (meaning among the very best in the world). I love Dahlin, he’s a fantastic prospect, but his skill set does not rise to that level of all-around greatness, nor is he so exceptional at several things to balance it out.

 

I’m also very wary of planting a “generational” tag on a defense prospect barring overwhelming evidence to support that, which I do not see in this case. Projection at that position is bound up with much more uncertainty than it is for forwards, which is why the relationship between draft slot and NHL output is much more linear for forwards than defensemen.

 

I think Dahlin could be that good; it’s within the realm of possibilities. But it’s unlikely, and history says the smart projection for a player of his skill set is that he pans out as a top-tier NHL defenseman, but not a once in a generation talent along the lines of Erik Karlsson, Nicklas Lidstrom, Raymond Bourque, Denis Potvin and Bobby Orr. I brought this issue up on Twitter and resulted in an interesting discussion among my followers.

[dudacek]

I have none. Why would I? Should I watch two YouTube clips and present myself as an expert here?.

Why wouldn’t you have an opinion? You have an opinion on Ligers opinion, seemingly without reviewing the information he’s reviewed.

You’ve shared all kinds of opinions on the upper echelons of the Sabres with far less information than is available about Dahlin.

 

“Two YouTube” clips is disengenuous. There is tons of video available and tons of scouting reports from actual experts.

Willfully dismissing copious evidence that the kid is clearly good and may be special seems the opposite of “realistic” to me. It’s the type of thing more typically seen in politicized debate than honest discourse.

[That Aud Smell]

Willfully dismissing copious evidence that the kid is clearly good and may be special seems the opposite of “realistic” to me. 

 

Fair point.

[LGR4GM]

Hedman and Doughty as near-comparables (i.e., Dahlin projects a bit better than both).

 

Yes. Please.

Also interesting that Pronman pumps the tires on the generational talk. I'm good with that.

 

.58.

 

This appears to suggest that Dahlin would post ~20-25 points as a rookie d-man.

Depending on his role, I think 25 is a good number. 5 goals, 20a. I could see it go higher with good chemistry. I hope for 40 points but that could be unrealistic on my end. I think in 2019 we could see that. If he ends up dishing breakouts to Jack or opening up shot lanes for Reinhart deflections, I could see his assist total being closer to 30.  Time will tell. I am just very excited about him as a prospect. 

[Derrico]

Depending on his role, I think 25 is a good number. 5 goals, 20a. I could see it go higher with good chemistry. I hope for 40 points but that could be unrealistic on my end. I think in 2019 we could see that. If he ends up dishing breakouts to Jack or opening up shot lanes for Reinhart deflections, I could see his assist total being closer to 30.  Time will tell. I am just very excited about him as a prospect. 

I think this all comes down to Power Play time.  How much will he get in Buffalo?  Frolunda had an excellent power play (something like close to 25% success rate).  He was not on the number one unit.  Therefore all but 3 of his points came via 5 on 5.  If Dahlin sees decent power play time (maybe as a way to scale back Risto's TOI) I could see setting the bar at 40 points.