Pick John Tavares' Next Team -- Update -- JT to Leafs

[Iron Crotch]

This is how the do polling in North Korea.    ;) 

[Weave]

This is how the do polling in North Korea.    ;)

 

The Kim Jung Un version of Godwinning.

[JohnRobertEichel]

A few things I'd like to say:

 

1. If JT comes here, he will be given the "C." No question about it. Eichel and O'Reilly have already shown that they are not captain material.

 

2. The capologists here crack me up. We can't afford a player like JT long-term, but yet here we are paying Bogo, Moulson, and Pominville $16 million hext season with nearly $20 million to spare. I already crunched the numbers a while back...we can afford JT, and we can keep all of our other important players too.

 

3. A lot may depend on where his fiancee wants to live. I believe she is from southern Ontario, just like John.

[PASabreFan]

The Gord Miller name drop is almost certainly JT's agent's doing, no? Use TPegs to up the ante. See Babcock, Stamkos maybe?

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Here is not so far fetched.

[Randall Flagg]

I actually think he would be a great add for a team like NJ or CAR. If NJ could add him and another D or 2, and CAR add him and a G, both teams would increase the nastiness that is the Metro division.

Edited May 18, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Iron Crotch]

The Gord Miller name drop is almost certainly JT's agent's doing, no? Use TPegs to up the ante. See Babcock, Stamkos maybe?

 

He could certainly be playing the game to drive the price up for the Isles ala Stamkos. Either that or he's already hashed out where he'd like to be ala Ryan Suter & Zach Parise a few years ago.

 

The Isles are in a strange place because many of the players and their fans live out in Garden County or so, closer to the old arena, but they play in Brooklyn. Then the team will be moving again in a few years. It can't be ideal for players with young families.

[Marions Piazza]

A few things I'd like to say:

 

1. If JT comes here, he will be given the "C." No question about it. Eichel and O'Reilly have already shown that they are not captain material.

 

2. The capologists here crack me up. We can't afford a player like JT long-term, but yet here we are paying Bogo, Moulson, and Pominville $16 million hext season with nearly $20 million to spare. I already crunched the numbers a while back...we can afford JT, and we can keep all of our other important players too.

 

3. A lot may depend on where his fiancee wants to live. I believe she is from southern Ontario, just like John.

Yes, we are going to unload some contracts, Bogo, Moulson, P-ville, but a year after that, we have to look to extend Mittelstadt, who will likely make more per year than any of those three, a year after that will be coming up on Dahlin's extension and that will be pretty significant.  Erod seems to have carved out a spot and will need a raise.  I am assuming Guhle will be here this year and will need an extension the same time Dahlin gets his.  You make it sound so easy.  I haven't looked, but that $20M to spare comes from where? All the one year deals expiring, Josefson, Larrson, Girgensons etc?  that money isnt really spare? you still have to round out the bottom 6 with decent players, we have seen what happens when you put a bunch of garbage on the bottom 6.  You can't just assume that all our Roc guys like Baptiste, Bailey, etc will be good enough.

 

Signing and affording Tavares probably can be done, but not easily and tough decisions will be made.

[PASabreFan]

Hot take: Landing Tavares would be bigger shock than winning the lottery.

 

Go.

[Marions Piazza]

Hot take: Landing Tavares would be bigger shock than winning the lottery.

 

Go.

hmm, we had what, an 18.5% chance of winning the lottery?

 

i would agree that our odds are lower of signing JT

[Swedesessed]

John Tavares should go to Florida, Nevada, Texas, or Tennessee, if he was smart (tax breaks for a so called fair cap gives these franchises an 8-10% edge overall) John can sign there for 8M and make about the same if he was paid, for example, 9.5 per in NY or Buffalo. Plus the team he goes to have more $ to spend for other players.

 

Still convinced this is a pretty good reason why a player like Stamkos stayed in Tampa. Meaning if Toronto had same tax benefits as Florida, Stamkos is a Leaf IMHO.

Edited May 18, 2018 by (E5)

[Derrico]

Hot take: Landing Tavares would be bigger shock than winning the lottery.

 

Go.

 

Oh for sure.  Lottery 18.5%.  Landing JT?  I'd set the line between 5% and 10%.

[Eleven]

Except there's an element of control when it comes to Tavares that is lacking with the lottery.

 

Still, I don't see it happening, for many reasons--and Buffalo not being an attractive destination isn't really one of them.

[Randall Flagg]

100/31 is about 3%, and we suck.

 

I say we have a 1% chance.

[TrueBlueGED]

I actually think he would be a great add for a team like NJ or CAR. If NJ could add him and another D or 2, and CAR add him and a G, both teams would increase the nastiness that is the Metro division.

He's the exact piece Carolina needs to take the next step. But I think they have less of a chance than us. They're not a hockey market, and I can't imagine he goes from one show of an ownership situation to another.

[nfreeman]

Serious question:  if you were JBott, and JT's agent called you today and said JT will sign with the Sabres for $11.5MM x 7 years, would you do it?

 

JT will be 28 in September.  He's played 9 full NHL seasons.  He's coming off a 37-47-84 season, which was his 2nd-best scoring season ever.  He's pretty durable -- he played 82 games last year and has only played less than 77 games once (plus the strike season). 

 

The Islanders have made the playoffs 3 times (advancing once) in his 9 seasons.  He's got 22 pts in 24 playoff games.

 

He's also on the slow side -- probably about the same speed as ROR.

 

I think I would do it, but it's not a no-brainer and would probably require them to either trade ROR, or bribe someone with a high draft pick or prospect to take KO.

[Randall Flagg]

Serious question:  if you were JBott, and JT's agent called you today and said JT will sign with the Sabres for $11.5MM x 7 years, would you do it?

 

JT will be 28 in September.  He's played 9 full NHL seasons.  He's coming off a 37-47-84 season, which was his 2nd-best scoring season ever.  He's pretty durable -- he played 82 games last year and has only played less than 77 games once (plus the strike season). 

 

The Islanders have made the playoffs 3 times (advancing once) in his 9 seasons.  He's got 22 pts in 24 playoff games.

 

He's also on the slow side -- probably about the same speed as ROR.

 

I think I would do it, but it's not a no-brainer and would probably require them to either trade ROR, or bribe someone with a high draft pick or prospect to take KO.

I think it would be tougher if there was no "culture" talk. But if they're already debating moving ROR internally anyway...let's upgrade that position for free (asset-wise) and STILL get the return for ROR that we would. It makes us objectively better for the foreseeable future. And I don't think Tavares is going to suddenly be a walking zombie at age 33/34. 

[Eleven]

Serious question:  if you were JBott, and JT's agent called you today and said JT will sign with the Sabres for $11.5MM x 7 years, would you do it?

 

JT will be 28 in September.  He's played 9 full NHL seasons.  He's coming off a 37-47-84 season, which was his 2nd-best scoring season ever.  He's pretty durable -- he played 82 games last year and has only played less than 77 games once (plus the strike season). 

 

The Islanders have made the playoffs 3 times (advancing once) in his 9 seasons.  He's got 22 pts in 24 playoff games.

 

He's also on the slow side -- probably about the same speed as ROR.

 

I think I would do it, but it's not a no-brainer and would probably require them to either trade ROR, or bribe someone with a high draft pick or prospect to take KO.

 

I don't think I would. 

[nfreeman]

John Tavares should go to Florida, Nevada, Texas, or Tennessee, if he was smart (tax breaks for a so called fair cap gives these franchises an 8-10% edge overall) John can sign there for 8M and make about the same if he was paid, for example, 9.5 per in NY or Buffalo. Plus the team he goes to have more $ to spend for other players.

 

Still convinced this is a pretty good reason why a player like Stamkos stayed in Tampa. Meaning if Toronto had same tax benefits as Florida, Stamkos is a Leaf IMHO.

You are right that there is a tax difference, but you are overstating it by something like 3x, at least as regards NYS. The top NYS rate is 8.8%. Also, NHL players pay state taxes to each of the states for their road games, and I think it’s based on 1/82 of their income per game (not 1/365), so they aren’t paying zero state tax.

 

It’s still real money when you’re making what JT will make, but it isn’t 16%+ of his income.

[Iron Crotch]

You are right that there is a tax difference, but you are overstating it by something like 3x, at least as regards NYS. The top NYS rate is 8.8%. Also, NHL players pay state taxes to each of the states for their road games, and I think it’s based on 1/82 of their income per game (not 1/365), so they aren’t paying zero state tax.

 

It’s still real money when you’re making what JT will make, but it isn’t 16%+ of his income.

 

Yeah, I vaguely remember reading somewhere that they're taxed differently for road game income. I could probably look it up, but it's Friday and I'm lazy!

[TrueBlueGED]

Serious question: if you were JBott, and JT's agent called you today and said JT will sign with the Sabres for $11.5MM x 7 years, would you do it?

 

JT will be 28 in September. He's played 9 full NHL seasons. He's coming off a 37-47-84 season, which was his 2nd-best scoring season ever. He's pretty durable -- he played 82 games last year and has only played less than 77 games once (plus the strike season).

 

The Islanders have made the playoffs 3 times (advancing once) in his 9 seasons. He's got 22 pts in 24 playoff games.

 

He's also on the slow side -- probably about the same speed as ROR.

 

I think I would do it, but it's not a no-brainer and would probably require them to either trade ROR, or bribe someone with a high draft pick or prospect to take KO.

I would, and I don't think it necessitates moving ROR. We're likely to be saving money in goal the next few years, Mittelstadt and Dahlin are cheap, Sam is likely to bridge, and we have huge money coming off the books (Moulson, Pominville, and Bogosian) before Mittelstadt and Dahlin need new contracts. I think we'll be fine.

[Derrico]

100/31 is about 3%, and we ###### suck.

 

I say we have a 1% chance.

That's probably more accurate.

[shrader]

You are right that there is a tax difference, but you are overstating it by something like 3x, at least as regards NYS. The top NYS rate is 8.8%. Also, NHL players pay state taxes to each of the states for their road games, and I think it’s based on 1/82 of their income per game (not 1/365), so they aren’t paying zero state tax.

 

It’s still real money when you’re making what JT will make, but it isn’t 16%+ of his income.

There’s also the difference in available endorsement money from city to city. I’d imagine there’s far less of that available in the Florida markets.

[pi2000]

Stop rationalizing why he might come to Buffalo.  Buffalo is the Siberia of the NHL.    He's not interested. 

[nfreeman]

Stop rationalizing why he might come to Buffalo.  Buffalo is the Siberia of the NHL.    He's not interested. 

 

 

I agree that it's undesirable now, but I think it's mostly due to losing.  Once Rasmus, Eichel and the new goalie start delivering them to the playoffs every year they willi get good UFAs.