So what is Jbot’s plan for the Sabres?

[nfreeman]

I could see them re-upping Lehner on a similar 1-year deal, but not a long-term deal. That would be wasteful and unnecessary and not a JBott-type move.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Lehner is restricted after this season. There is no need to give him a big contract.

 

Reino is also restricted, has been completely ineffective this year and has trended downward since his rookie year.  He's not getting $4MM per year.

How can someone who improved his point total year over year be trending down? While his goals decreased his assists went from 19 to 30 as his role evolved as a playmaker. Pts went from 42 to 47.

 

Admittedly he hasn’t been great the first 10 games, but he is also now playing a new position in NHL, in a new system with a new coach, and new linemates who also haven’t been very good.

 

As we saw the team improve from Babcock block 1 to block 2, with 72 games to go, I suspect that a player with Sam IQ will figure it out and start contributing more. I’ll be very surprised if he ends up with less then 40 pts this season, but if he does then his leverage for a new deal is gone.

 

As to Lehner, he was an RFA last off-season and Jbot gave him a raise from 2.225 to 4. Is it really so unreasonable to expect another decent raise if he remains our starter?

[7+6=13]

As an RFA? When his best friend plays for the Sabres.

 

I'm not saying he wants to leave or could get more as a RFA - I just think Aacontract of $3.33M is probably 500K to 800K light but he'll be in a bind because no one is going to lose picks and sign him closer to my perceived value of him. 

[nfreeman]

How can someone who improved his point total year over year be trending down? While his goals decreased his assists went from 19 to 30 as his role evolved as a playmaker. Pts went from 42 to 47.

 

Admittedly he hasn’t been great the first 10 games, but he is also now playing a new position in NHL, in a new system with a new coach, and new linemates who also haven’t been very good.

 

As we saw the team improve from Babcock block 1 to block 2, with 72 games to go, I suspect that a player with Sam IQ will figure it out and start contributing more. I’ll be very surprised if he ends up with less then 40 pts this season, but if he does then his leverage for a new deal is gone.

 

As to Lehner, he was an RFA last off-season and Jbot gave him a raise from 2.225 to 4. Is it really so unreasonable to expect another decent raise if he remains our starter?

 

Because goals are more important than assists and his goal production dropped by over 25% from Y1 to Y2 -- and because his goals and points look like they are going to fall off a cliff this year.

 

Now, if you're right and he turns it around and gets back to, say, 21-25-46 -- then yes, I can see him getting $4MM x 4 years or thereabouts.  But if he continues to be ineffective and ends up at, say, 13-19-32?  JBott isn't going to give him a fat contract just because he's a former high draft pick.

[Sabel79]

Because goals are more important than assists and his goal production dropped by over 25% from Y1 to Y2 -- and because his goals and points look like they are going to fall off a cliff this year.

 

Now, if you're right and he turns it around and gets back to, say, 21-25-46 -- then yes, I can see him getting $4MM x 4 years or thereabouts.  But if he continues to be ineffective and ends up at, say, 13-19-32?  JBott isn't going to give him a fat contract just because he's a former high draft pick.

 

Nor should he.  Really hoping the first thing happens though.  It'd make it more likely that there'd be more wins. 

[LGR4GM]

what did Sams primary assists do?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

what did Sams primary assists do?

 

Directly lead to a Sabre goal.

 

That is why I have always valued assists the same as goals.

[Randall Flagg]

Because goals are more important than assists and his goal production dropped by over 25% from Y1 to Y2 -- and because his goals and points look like they are going to fall off a cliff this year.

 

Now, if you're right and he turns it around and gets back to, say, 21-25-46 -- then yes, I can see him getting $4MM x 4 years or thereabouts.  But if he continues to be ineffective and ends up at, say, 13-19-32?  JBott isn't going to give him a fat contract just because he's a former high draft pick.

I continue to not think it's as simple as this.

 

Goal-scorers by definition will be inconsistent in accordance with their shooting percentage. Since a guy who doesn't score as well as he passes isn't solely dependent on one shooting percentage, ie, he can pass to any of his 17 teammates at any given time, guys on fire and in a slump alike, and those players are seen as a lot more consistent, rightfully so. Over the season I take guys like McDavid (in regards to his ability to create, not just raw freaky high numbers), Crosby (Yes, I know he has decided he felt like winning the Rocket twice in his career), Backstrom over similarly talented snipers like Ovechkin, Tarasenko, Seguin. 

 

The assist guys are the ones that win Art Rosses and Hart trophies, outside of Ovechkin's seasons from outer space and the year Corey Perry was the weakest Hart winner in decades. The other ones were Crosby a bunch, St. Louis, Sedin, Malkin, Kane, Thornton, McDavid. Sure, guys who can score. But guys that did not win Rocket trophies those seasons in general. Even if their shot is in a slump, you wouldn't know it. ROR had a 15 game stretch or something like it his first season here without a goal, and we didn't notice because we were winning, his line was winning its matchups, and he was a point per game player during that time. If Kane the goal-scorer went 15 games without a goal, find one Sabre fan that doesn't want to fire him into the sun. And while that's not a fair comparison because those players probably aren't on the same tier, in general one stat is far more consistent than the other and leads to the same number of tallies on your team's score card. 

 

Let's take a peak at the top 15 goal scorers versus assist-getters and see how they stack up in terms of playoff series victories over the last three years. This is a horrible analysis and not meant to draw any hard conclusions. 

Assist Leaders:

1.) Karlsson - 2

2.) Kane - 4

3.) Backstrom - 3

4.) Thornton - 3

5.) Getzlaf - 4

6.) Kuznetsov - 3

7.) Wheeler - 0

8.) McDavid - 2

9.) Gaudreau - 1

10.) Burns - 3

11.) Johansen - 4

12.) Crosby - 8

13.) Panarin - 0

14.) Benn - 1

15.) Hedman - 5

 

Goal Leaders:

1.) Ovechkin - 3

2.) Kane - 4

3.) Crosby - 8

4.) Tarasenko - 3 

5.) Marchand - 0

6.) Kucherov - 5

7.) Forsberg - 4

8.) Benn - 1

9.) Skinner - 0

10.) Simmonds - 0

11.) Pavelski - 3

12.) Pacioretty - 1

13.) Tavares - 1

14.) Atkinson - 0

15.) Oshie - 2

 

Outside of the guys on both lists, 22 series have been won by the goal scorers and 30 have been won by the assist guys. Again I don't really want to draw hard conclusions from that but I felt like doing it. More importantly, of the guys not on both lists, I'd much rather pick a player from the pool of the assist leaders than that of the goal scorers. There are simply more, better, hockey players. But to illustrate this more clearly I'll attack it with non-elite players. 

 

Wayne Simmonds and Patrice Bergeron had very similar point totals, but Wayne out-scored Patrice by a lot in the goal column. I take Bergeron anyway, and it isn't really close, because Bergeron is a better hockey player and a better OFFENSIVE player specifically too, in my opinion. Then you have Charlie Coyle who I'd obviously take Wayne over, but Charlie has the same number of points and less goals. So I can't simply lean on goals scored in a vacuum over assists, and I should also not lean the other direction. 

 

Kane, Galchenyuk, Parise, J. Staal, Tyler Johnson all missed games and all finished within a point of each other. Kane scored way more goals than the rest. I take him last from this list if I want to build a winning team for this season. There are also guys with that point total I'd take Kane over, but if I supposed to take x number of players from different scoring brackets to build a team to win, I certainly would not blindly take the guy with the most goals, it's much more complicated than that. 

 

I sort of went crazy with this post, I'm waiting for a meeting to start. All I really wanted to say is that I don't think it's as simple as saying that goals are more valuable than assists. 

Especially for a player like Reinhart, who, when scoring, is affecting the game by simply standing in front and getting bounces his way. He will do this all of the time, sometimes he gets them and sometimes he doesn't. The way that Sam Reinhart the hockey player actually affects a hockey game and makes this team better will not be by getting lucky seasons in that regard, it will be by doing hockey sense passing things that lead to high assist totals. So measuring his effectiveness by his goals-scored is really measuring his effectiveness by his luck and not by his actual affect on the game, because he shoots a muffin shot. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Because goals are more important than assists and his goal production dropped by over 25% from Y1 to Y2 -- and because his goals and points look like they are going to fall off a cliff this year.

 

Now, if you're right and he turns it around and gets back to, say, 21-25-46 -- then yes, I can see him getting $4MM x 4 years or thereabouts.  But if he continues to be ineffective and ends up at, say, 13-19-32?  JBott isn't going to give him a fat contract just because he's a former high draft pick.

So Jack is less valuable now that he has assumed more of a playmaker role so that we can get the best out of Kane and Pommers?  

 

While Sam's goal production fell from 23 to 17 (25%), but he increased his assists from 19 to 30 (by 60%) .  Considering that Sam was drafted to be a playmaker, I found last year a better indication of his role here in the long-term then his rookie season.  We want him distributing the puck.  FYI: In Sam's two NHL seasons he had exactly 1g 3a in Oct both years.  Last season, after a slow Oct he had either 8 or 9 pts every month for the rest of the season.  Sam already has 2g & 1a this Oct with 2 games left in the month.  He also has those 3 points in the last 5 games with a +2.  If he keeps that pace of the last 5 games over the remainder of the season, he'll finish with 46 pts.  

[nfreeman]

Randall — that is interesting and good work, as always. I generally agree that at a lower level, goals will fluctuate a fair amount — so a guy like Reino can easily score 22 one year and 18 the next.

 

As for your list, I think it’s pretty easy to cherry-pick quite a few guys from the goal scoring list who are better players (for the past 3 years) than their counterparts on the assist list:

 

4.) Tarasenko over Thornton

5.) Marchand over Getzlaf

6.) Kucherov over Kuznetsov

7.) Forsberg over Wheeler

11.) Pavelski over Johansen

13.) Tavares over Panarin

 

 

GA — that is good historical data about Reino’s slow starts, but your statement about Eichel is straight #HammyMath.

[Randall Flagg]

Randall — that is interesting and good work, as always. I generally agree that at a lower level, goals will fluctuate a fair amount — so a guy like Reino can easily score 22 one year and 18 the next.

 

As for your list, I think it’s pretty easy to cherry-pick quite a few guys from the goal scoring list who are better players (for the past 3 years) than their counterparts on the assist list:

 

4.) Tarasenko over Thornton

5.) Marchand over Getzlaf

6.) Kucherov over Kuznetsov

7.) Forsberg over Wheeler

11.) Pavelski over Johansen

13.) Tavares over Panarin

 

 

GA — that is good historical data about Reino’s slow starts, but your statement about Eichel is straight #HammyMath.

I agree, especially at that tier of players. 

 

I just shy away from a broad statement concerning goals versus assists. 

 

A lot of it is personal preference in terms of players you like to watch, too. It's 1000% valid to prefer watching Tarasenko and Kucherov to Backstrom and Getzlaf, but I'd rather watch the last two even though they'll combine for only 2/3s of the goals scored by only one of the first two players. 

 

I bet there's been way more in depth analysis of goals versus assists than the one I provided and I'd be very interested to see it. 

Also, my sentence structuring has been spectacularly bad this week. I've had to edit each post I've made at least 15 times

Edited October 25, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[Thorny]

I think he’d bring a 1st. Shattenkirk, who was on the last year of his deal, was traded for a 1st last dealine. Then over-hill Eric Staal brought 2 2nd rd picks the year before.

For a team who feels, like the Caps did, that they are one player from getting to the promise land (a trip to the Cup Finals), they will pay up to get that player.

 

 

D depth is much more valuable at the deadline. There is no chance Kane fetches a 1st. 2 2nds, maybe.

 

I could see them re-upping Lehner on a similar 1-year deal, but not a long-term deal. That would be wasteful and unnecessary and not a JBott-type move.

Agreed.

 

Directly lead to a Sabre goal.

 

That is why I have always valued assists the same as goals.

I find myself here as well often. It really depends on the play. Sometimes a primary assist is more valuable than the goal.

 

Like GA said, it's what role you expect a player to be in. Reinhart is a playmaker. Him having more goals than assists his first season was likely an anomaly. I want him passing the puck, and thought he was better overall last season that his rookie year. It's a main reason I was angsty over his zero assists in first 8 games start. Hopefully he continues improving.

[Crusader1969]

If the Loaves can move Clarkson's boat anchor and the Red Wings can trade a player who isn't even in the NHL Moulson can be traded.

 

That's also not really what I meant.  Trading Moulson is changing the curtains, I'm talking about a trade that would tear down some walls.

 

Finally, I think Okposo's contract is a much bigger problem than Moulson's and if I had to pick one or the other to trade away it'd be that one.

This is a genius idea, I totally forgot about David Clarkson. You remember that the Leafs traded Clarkson to Columbus for Nathan Horton because the Blue Jackets wanted someone who could play for them rather than being stuck with a guy who's career was over. The leafs have had Horton stached on LTIR and will still pay him for a couple of more years

 

Now it's Clarkson who has s getting paid over $5million to sit at home by the Knights. I'd love for them to take Moulson for Clarkson but I would also be willing to trade Pomminstein for Clarkson and a prospect in order to clear off $5 million off the cap as the Sabres could stash Clarkson on LTIR.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I love what Pommers brings to this team.  Leadership, hard work, a great attitude and still plays with plenty of speed and skill.  We are alot closer to getting $5.6 mill worth of play from him then we are of getting $5 mill from Moulson or $5 mill from Bogo, or $4 mill from Gorges or even $6 mill for KO (G-d I hate writing that).  

 

I'm not trading Pommers.  

[dudacek]

Right now, if you ignore the fact Jack’s new deal hasn’t kicked in, then Pommers is behind only to Kane and maybe Scandella in terms of bang for the buck.

 

I also wonder if Sam’s production would be close to Jason’s if he had Jason’s role.

[Pokey Jones]

If someone wants Pommers you trade him. You trade them all. 

[LGR4GM]

If someone wants Pommers you trade him. You trade them all. 

Who are "them all"?

[Crusader1969]

I love what Pommers brings to this team.  Leadership, hard work, a great attitude and still plays with plenty of speed and skill.  We are alot closer to getting $5.6 mill worth of play from him then we are of getting $5 mill from Moulson or $5 mill from Bogo, or $4 mill from Gorges or even $6 mill for KO (G-d I hate writing that).  

 

I'm not trading Pommers.  

 

There is no doubt about that but who is taking Moulson, Bogo, Gorges (though don't need to trade him as his contract is off the books next season) or KO?  I don't think Vegas takes Moulson (a live body) for Clarkson but I'd be calling them to be sure.

[inkman]

Who are "them all"?

[Thorny]

^any day I see that clip posted is a good day.

[North Buffalo]

Get more talent is the plan... how remains to be seen... they need Nylander, Asplund and God himself to pan out... all hail Middlestadt then draft D, and goalies.

Edited October 26, 2017 by North Buffalo

[Pokey Jones]

Who are "them all"?

For the right price anybody but I would not trade Jack, Risto, McCabe (I still believe he can be a solid #3 or 4) and probably Scandella. I'd also probably keep Bailey and Antipin cause I still see possible upside. Everyone else can go and I wish some went sooner than others. Pommers is fine, but at his age if somebody wants him dump the salary. 

 

I still believe what I've been saying since I got here, the culture and attitude has to be changed and that won't happen if you just tweak the roster bit by bit, you have to rip out the core and replace it entirely. otherwise you run the risk that the new blood adapts to the old. maybe those inside the locker room can sort them out with info we don't have, but when you want to get rid of the bad, you cut deep and wide to make sure you get it all. 

[LTS]

For the right price anybody but I would not trade Jack, Risto, McCabe (I still believe he can be a solid #3 or 4) and probably Scandella. I'd also probably keep Bailey and Antipin cause I still see possible upside. Everyone else can go and I wish some went sooner than others. Pommers is fine, but at his age if somebody wants him dump the salary. 

 

I still believe what I've been saying since I got here, the culture and attitude has to be changed and that won't happen if you just tweak the roster bit by bit, you have to rip out the core and replace it entirely. otherwise you run the risk that the new blood adapts to the old. maybe those inside the locker room can sort them out with info we don't have, but when you want to get rid of the bad, you cut deep and wide to make sure you get it all. 

 

Which player on this roster represents the last core that embodied losing?  (wait, sorry, they did bring Pominville back).

 

The core has been ripped out.  The longest tenured Sabre on this team is Girgensons and McCabe (2012).  The next is Ristolainen (2013).

 

Two of those 3 you want to keep.

[Pokey Jones]

No way of knowing who the real problems are, it'd just be speculation. Maybe its the fans not demanding more? The city? The source of this losing culture might have many forms. As for the players, its anyone who has been here a while and gotten used to losing as something acceptable. It's often the same, if the guy beside you makes twice your salary and he's not busting his butt every night maybe you start taking a little time off too. 

I don't have all the answers to this situation, but I will insist the culture of this team is the biggest problem. If you don't change it, nothing will ever change as a whole. And the proof is in the endless futility we see year after year. 

[Randall Flagg]

No way of knowing who the real problems are, it'd just be speculation. Maybe its the fans not demanding more? The city? The source of this losing culture might have many forms. As for the players, its anyone who has been here a while and gotten used to losing as something acceptable. It's often the same, if the guy beside you makes twice your salary and he's not busting his butt every night maybe you start taking a little time off too. 

I don't have all the answers to this situation, but I will insist the culture of this team is the biggest problem. If you don't change it, nothing will ever change as a whole. And the proof is in the endless futility we see year after year. 

Again, if you can outline exactly what management will do differently once they get scared by the fans "demanding more", that they were hesitant to do before that threshold was crossed, that would be great. 

 

The idea that the mental state of millions of fans spread around the earth are keeping management from doing something they know will fix the team, but won't do until this acceptance of the fans changes (like what, firing coaches? GMs? trading players? tanking? not-tanking? replacing the entire scouting department? our owners have done ALL of this) is completely baseless until you or the other posters that insinuate that the fans have anything to do with the state of the team can describe to me what this thing is.