So what is Jbot’s plan for the Sabres?

[Randall Flagg]

The Sabres sent out a flyer to season ticket holders listing all the draft picks and suggesting the type of rebuild I mentioned, and then proceeded to not follow the script. Had they done what they said they were going to do and rebuild properly, the fanbase, who were on board with the tank, would have enjoyed the incremental improvement because they would have see the growth that meet with their expectations.

 

On the other hand, TM reset the expectations with a stated 3 year rebuild. He traded for young vets (mostly from losing cultures) spent money like a drunken sailor, and still built a crappy roster. TM’s team failed to meet the expectations he set and the collective anger is a reflection of that. Most of the targets of that anger, Moulson, Gorges, Bogo, Lehner, Kane, and even KO and ROR, the acquired big $ players, are still here. Until they are gone, in part or completely, then the fans will continue to be angry over their poor play.

 

I said all off-season that Moulson and Gorges should never lace it up again for this team. I would have ate their 9 mill in salary and sent both down just to make room for others. Bogo, aka Mr. Glass, needs to be bought out at seasons’s end. Kane and Lehner need to traded. ROR and KO aren’t going anywhere. I actually really like KO. I’m worried based on what we have seen on the ice, that he is still not fully recovered from his concussion. He may end up in the Lupul loophole.

I totally agree with you. But my original post you quoted and the one you're replying to now, are responding to implications that this line of decision-making is the fans fault, and that's literally the ONLY thing I'm talking about.

Edited October 21, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[Crusader1969]

I believe we’re looking at several years at a minimum. We may not compete until 2020. There aren’t player acquisition or system overhauls that will turn any terrible group into a good group. I think you find talent early, develop it, and deploy it when it’s ready. That talent develops alongside other talent that developed the same way in an earlier cycle. Detroit, Pittsburgh, St Louis for decades, and so on.

A large risk is the unknown ability of TP, JB and PH. I’m encouraged that TP may have learned that “trust the process” beats “make a splash” over at One Bills Drive. I’m encouraged by JB’s Pittsburgh upbringing.

The Tank gutted this team; hands, feet, heart and soul. It had an impact on Rochester and concession vendors. Jack Eichel is an excellent hockey player. The price was too dear. We iced an expansion team in 2015.

Draft talent into a sound structure and let it grow.

Trust the Process. The bad news about this approach is that it takes time to work. The good news is that it sticks around after it starts producing.

Why do people still question Tanks? Remind me who won the last 2 cups and how did they acquire their top players? You only have to look an hour up the QEW to see that the "tank" usually does work.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Randall, I think the we are in agreement. The only fan that has influenced the decision making is TP. If he cared about the fans and their opinion, he wouldn’t have raised prices every year.

 

Firing Regier was fixing his first error of keeping him in the first place. I think he fired TM for spending his money foolishly.

 

His hiring of Jbot has a different feel. I actually think TP has more patience this time. Why? Because Jbot had to tell him in the interview process the truth about this roster.

Edited October 21, 2017 by GASabresFan

[Neo]

Why do people still question Tanks? Remind me who won the last 2 cups and how did they acquire their top players? You only have to look an hour up the QEW to see that the "tank" usually does work.

Can I say "our tank" and not "any tank ever"?

 

I'm not spending much time in my head thinking if the tank. Regardless of how we got here, I'm thinking of what I'd do now.

 

It matters little to me if Sam plays RW or C, tonight. It matters little to me if Sam's here next year.

 

It matters to me that TP, JB and PH are building an organization into which talent arrives and thrives. I want an identity for the franchise. A "this is how we do it" approach. I'll get to the particular team and it's merit when I know what the team is.

[nfreeman]

Why do people still question Tanks? Remind me who won the last 2 cups and how did they acquire their top players? You only have to look an hour up the QEW to see that the "tank" usually does work.

 

This is simply wrong as a factual matter.

 

It's not troubling that many fans think this (although at long last, and well after the horse has left the barn, I think most here have realized that tanking is a terrible strategy).  It's deeply troubling that GMTM thought this, and deeply disappointing that he was able to convince TP.

 

As I've said before -- Pittsburgh and Toronto are the exceptions, not the rule.  When Toronto won the lottery, they had a 1-in-5 chance.  When Pittsburgh won, they had a 1-in-16 chance.  When Chicago won, they had a 1-in-12 chance. 

 

If you are OK with being terrible for a decade, AND you can win a lottery, AND it's in a year in which a generational player is the prize, AND you already have other very-good-to-great players, AND (in Toronto's case) the best coach in a generation -- yes, it can work.  But that is not a plan.  It's a prayer.

 

Here are the #1 overall picks since 2000:

 

 

2000-New York Islanders-Rick DiPietro

2001-Atlanta Thrashers-Ilya Kovalchuk

2002-Columbus Blue Jackets-Rick Nash

2003-Pittsburgh Penguins-Marc-Andre Fleury

2004-Washington Capitals-Alexander Ovechkin ^

2005-Pittsburgh Penguins-Sidney Crosby

2006-St. Louis Blues-Erik Johnson

2007-Chicago Blackhawks-Patrick Kane

2008-Tampa Bay Lightning-Steven Stamkos

2009-New York Islanders-John Tavares

2010-Edmonton Oilers-Taylor Hall

2011-Edmonton Oilers-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

2012-Edmonton Oilers-Nail Yakupov

2013-Colorado Avalanche-Nathan MacKinnon ^

2014-Florida Panthers-Aaron Ekblad ^

2015-Edmonton Oilers-Connor McDavid

2016-Toronto Maple Leafs-Auston Matthews

2017-New Jersey Devils-Nico Hischier

 

 

Notice anything about these guys, and the teams that drafted them?

 

Most of them didn't lift their teams to a Cup, or even bring them out of sustained suckitude. 

 

 

 

 

Randall, I think the we are in agreement. The only fan that has influenced the decision making is TP. If he cared about the fans and their opinion, he wouldn’t have raised prices every year.

 

Firing Regier was fixing his first error of keeping him in the first place. I think he fired TM for spending his money foolishly.

 

His hiring of Jbot has a different feel. I actually think TP has more patience time. Why? Because Jbot had to tell him in the interview process the truth about this roster.

 

I agree with most of this, but not the bolded.  I think GMTM was fired for presiding over a train wreck.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

This is simply wrong as a factual matter.

 

It's not troubling that many fans think this (although at long last, and well after the horse has left the barn, I think most here have realized that tanking is a terrible strategy).  It's deeply troubling that GMTM thought this, and deeply disappointing that he was able to convince TP.

 

As I've said before -- Pittsburgh and Toronto are the exceptions, not the rule.  When Toronto won the lottery, they had a 1-in-5 chance.  When Pittsburgh won, they had a 1-in-16 chance.  When Chicago won, they had a 1-in-12 chance. 

 

If you are OK with being terrible for a decade, AND you can win a lottery, AND it's in a year in which a generational player is the prize, AND you already have other very-good-to-great players, AND (in Toronto's case) the best coach in a generation -- yes, it can work.  But that is not a plan.  It's a prayer.

Absolutely correct and I could not have said it better myself, my brother.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Freeman, you don’t think spending 80 mill in real $ for a team to finish w 78 pts is the definition of spending money foolishly, especially when most of that money went to TM’s lousy player acquisitions?

[nfreeman]

Freeman, you don’t think spending 80 mill in real $ for a team to finish w 78 pts is the definition of spending money foolishly, especially when most of that money went to TM’s lousy player acquisitions?

Of course, but I think he would’ve been fired if the payroll had been $20MM lower too. It was the train wreck, not the price tag IMHO.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Of course, but I think he would’ve been fired if the payroll had been $20MM lower too. It was the train wreck, not the price tag IMHO.

That is where I disagree. If the payroll had been 20 mill less, the team would have been filled with young developing players instead of overpaid vets and the expectations would have been equal to a developing team instead of what it was. TM would likely still be around.

 

Fyi: all good rebuilds are done over drafting well and usually high over a period of 5 or more years.

For example; Pitt drafted 5th, 1st, 2nd, 1st and 2nd over a year period getting Malkin, Fluery and Crosby plus getting Letang, Goligoski, Kennedy and Talbot in later rounds.

Chiago drafted 9, 21, 14, 3, 7, 3, 1 getting Ruuttu, Seabrook, Kane, Toews, plus later picks Keith, Crawford, wisniewski, Byfuglien, Bickell, Brouwer, Burish and Hjalmarsson.

Toronto looks like a quick turnaround, but they went 5, 7, 43, 22, 5, 21, 8, 4, 1 getting Kadri, Marner, Nylander, Reilly, Matthews, plus Brown. In addition they got Gardiner as a prospect for a vet amd stole JVR for Luke Schenn.

 

So far we have drafted 8, 2, 2, 8 and 8 and all we have to show for it is Jack, Sam, Risto, and 2nd rd pick McCabe. This will look deeper and better when Mittelstud, Nylander and later picks Ullmark, Guhle and Asplund are on the team.

Edited October 21, 2017 by GASabresFan

[Scottysabres]

Something has to give. This cannot continue.

When do we start seeing players moved? And I'm not talking about gap fillers.

Okposo, ROR, Larsson, Risto, McCabe, Kane and Moulson.

Trade them all. Bring up Baptiste, Fasching, Guhle and Nylander. And what about Pu, Asplund, Ullmark and Oloffson, get them over here to.

 

If we are going to felch, may as well let the kids start gearing up for next season.

[dudacek]

It's not the tanking strategy, the stockpiling picks strategy, or the trading said picks away strategies that were wrong, it was the players we acquired through those strategies that were wrong.

[Thorny]

It's not the tanking strategy, the stockpiling picks strategy, or the trading said picks away strategies that were wrong, it was the players we acquired through those strategies that were wrong.

One could argue that completely stripping a team of all talent, as with our tank, leaves so many spots to be filled, so much uncertainty, that the odds weigh heavily against you when trying to acquire the "right" players. So many chances to go wrong, so much needed to go right.

 

Tanking does put you behind the 8-ball. It's easier to transform a 9 or 10 seed into an 8, much harder to do that with an expansion level roster.

Edited October 21, 2017 by Thorny

[Robviously]

It's not the tanking strategy, the stockpiling picks strategy, or the trading said picks away strategies that were wrong, it was the players we acquired through those strategies that were wrong.

ZFG

[GASabresIUFAN]

One could argue that completely stripping a team of all talent, as with our tank, leaves so many spots to be filled, so much uncertainty, that the odds weigh heavily against you when trying to acquire the "right" players. So many chances to go wrong, so much needed to go right.

Tanking does put you behind the 8-ball. It's easier to transform a 9 or 10 seed into an 8, much harder to do that with an expansion level roster.

Which is why you keep all your picks and prospects.

[dudacek]

Which is why you keep all your picks and prospects.

But they still have to develop.

You have to get Forsberg instead of Grigorenko, Montour instead of Karabacek, Bossy instead of Seiling.

What's the point of keeping your pick if you are going to use it on Shawn Anderson or Marek Zagrapan?

[Taro T]

How long do you let this go on before you make a move?  I get that you need to account for some transition time and data gathering but enough is about enough isn't it?

Unless they've identified a player (or players) that flat out won't fit the plan (w/ obvious exceptions like Moulson who are unmovable until next off-season), would be very surprised to see they any trades until after January 1 at the earliest. This team needs to get healthy & get their head on straight.

 

Sadly, as has been the case the past 2-1/2 years, losing Bogosian forces too many 5/6's (& lately 7-9's w/ additional injuries) into the lineup. Right now, there are only 2 healthy guys playing like they belong top 4 (& some here are arguing Ristolainen doesn't look like 1 either).

 

They'll play better. Just doubtfully soon enough.

[nfreeman]

BTW:  is anyone else having a weird glitch with this thread? 

 

Every time I click on the star to the left of the thread title (i.e. the "new post" indicator), I get a "cannot open this page" screen.

 

It only happens for this thread, and I'm able to click on the last page of the thread and scroll down, but it's pretty weird.

[Thorny]

Unless they've identified a player (or players) that flat out won't fit the plan (w/ obvious exceptions like Moulson who are unmovable until next off-season), would be very surprised to see they any trades until after January 1 at the earliest. This team needs to get healthy & get their head on straight.

Sadly, as has been the case the past 2-1/2 years, losing Bogosian forces too many 5/6's (& lately 7-9's w/ additional injuries) into the lineup. Right now, there are only 2 healthy guys playing like they belong top 4 (& some here are arguing Ristolainen doesn't look like 1 either).

They'll play better. Just doubtfully soon enough.

I won't give them the injury excuse, yet again, though, as it still falls to roster construction. That they had Bogo penciled in for a top 4 spot is their own mistake.

 

I know we have like 7 injuries right now, but only 4 are to players who would have likely been in the lineup: Bogosian, Beaulieu, Girgensons and Josefson. Every team suffers injuries, and I'd only really be counting on Bogo and Girgensons to have a noticeable positive impact for us, when in.

 

Lord knows I'll be aggravated to no end if Housley or Botterill starts spouting the injury excuse.

[GASabresIUFAN]

But they still have to develop.

You have to get Forsberg instead of Grigorenko, Montour instead of Karabacek, Bossy instead of Seiling.

What's the point of keeping your pick if you are going to use it on Shawn Anderson or Marek Zagrapan?

Don’t necessarily disagree, except that the more picks u have and make the odds of finding players increases. If you look at the bottom 3rd of 2015 1st rd, in which we had 2 picks that TM traded to get Lehner, Kane and Bogo, all 10 players look to have solid NHL futures, with 8 of the 10 appearing in the NHL. How much better would we feel about the long-term if we had drafted 2 of those 10 such as Boeser and Larsson?

[Crusader1969]

This is simply wrong as a factual matter.

 

It's not troubling that many fans think this (although at long last, and well after the horse has left the barn, I think most here have realized that tanking is a terrible strategy).  It's deeply troubling that GMTM thought this, and deeply disappointing that he was able to convince TP.

 

As I've said before -- Pittsburgh and Toronto are the exceptions, not the rule.  When Toronto won the lottery, they had a 1-in-5 chance.  When Pittsburgh won, they had a 1-in-16 chance.  When Chicago won, they had a 1-in-12 chance. 

 

If you are OK with being terrible for a decade, AND you can win a lottery, AND it's in a year in which a generational player is the prize, AND you already have other very-good-to-great players, AND (in Toronto's case) the best coach in a generation -- yes, it can work.  But that is not a plan.  It's a prayer.

 

Here are the #1 overall picks since 2000:

 

 

2000-New York Islanders-Rick DiPietro

2001-Atlanta Thrashers-Ilya Kovalchuk

2002-Columbus Blue Jackets-Rick Nash

2003-Pittsburgh Penguins-Marc-Andre Fleury

2004-Washington Capitals-Alexander Ovechkin ^

2005-Pittsburgh Penguins-Sidney Crosby

2006-St. Louis Blues-Erik Johnson

2007-Chicago Blackhawks-Patrick Kane

2008-Tampa Bay Lightning-Steven Stamkos

2009-New York Islanders-John Tavares

2010-Edmonton Oilers-Taylor Hall

2011-Edmonton Oilers-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

2012-Edmonton Oilers-Nail Yakupov

2013-Colorado Avalanche-Nathan MacKinnon ^

2014-Florida Panthers-Aaron Ekblad ^

2015-Edmonton Oilers-Connor McDavid

2016-Toronto Maple Leafs-Auston Matthews

2017-New Jersey Devils-Nico Hischier

 

 

Notice anything about these guys, and the teams that drafted them?

 

Most of them didn't lift their teams to a Cup, or even bring them out of sustained suckitude. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree with most of this, but not the bolded.  I think GMTM was fired for presiding over a train wreck.

It's funny cause when I see that list I see 5 of the last 6 Stanley cup winners. If you include the 2.overall picks as well, you would find the last 6 and 8 of the last 9.

It's funny cause when I see that list I see 5 of the last 6 Stanley cup winners. If you include the 2.overall picks as well, you would find the last 6 and 8 of the last 9.

So you might be right that "most" tanks don't work but it is true that if you want to lift the cup -you better have had tanked at some point

[dudacek]

Don’t necessarily disagree, except that the more picks u have and make the odds of finding players increases. If you look at the bottom 3rd of 2015 1st rd, in which we had 2 picks that TM traded to get Lehner, Kane and Bogo, all 10 players look to have solid NHL futures, with 8 of the 10 appearing in the NHL. How much better would we feel about the long-term if we had drafted 2 of those 10 such as Boeser and Larsson?

When all is said and done, how many of those 10 are going to have better careers than Bogosian or Kane?

Or what if we had traded those picks for Taylor Hall or Martin Jones or Dougie Hamilton or Phil Kessel?

Edited October 21, 2017 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

We’d still stink. No depth.

[dudacek]

We’d still stink. No depth.

Exactly.

We've had more picks than all but a handful of teams over the past five years.

No depth because we haven't picked anybody good after the first round.

[TrueBlueGED]

Exactly.

We've had more picks than all but a handful of teams over the past five years.

No depth because we haven't picked anybody good after the first round.

 

Right. Regardless of how you go about rebuilding, if Jake McCabe is your best non-1st round pick of the decade (that's likely an exaggeration, but I'm way too lazy to look up every draft to figure it out), you're not going to be a good team.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Exactly.

We've had more picks than all but a handful of teams over the past five years.

No depth because we haven't picked anybody good after the first round.

I’ve said that for two years. However, depth can be acquired in other ways. How many solid value signings have we had in the last 5 years that actually enhanced the team. Jbot signed Pouliot, Josefson and acquired Nolan to add to depth and hopefully out play their modest contract cost. Who were TM’s similar signings? Franson? Grant?

 

TM also liquidated the depth to get his vets. Kane and Bogo for 5 players, picks prospects. ROR and McGinn for 4 players, picks and prospects. Fasching and Delo for 4 players picks and prospects.

 

These moves ultimately gutted our pipeline especially when coupled with the bad drafting, which destroyed the Amerks and ultimately the Sabres when these acquisitions failed.

 

Lack of depth in the entire organization is why Sexton and Jbot signed so many AHL vets and other AAAA players this off-season.

 

Edit: I forgot that TM couldn’t make any value signings because he spent so much on guys like Gorges and Kulikov that he had no cap space to enhance the depth.

Edited October 22, 2017 by GASabresFan