Rating Jbot's First Draft

[dudacek]

I'm surprised there isn't a general consensus on the board that we took Casey because he fell into our laps. Position was meaningless - sounds like he was no worse than 5 or 6 on our list.

 

No one would have shocked if he went 3-5.

Yet people are so desperate for a D they are complaining about not getting Liljegren, a guy that went nine picks later - where he was expected to go!

[GoPuckYourself]

I gave it an A, I hated the position Casey Mittelstadt plays since were so deep there but I think he'll eventually be a top 6 as a winger, I also think Luukkonen is going to be our goalie of the future. I don't have a doubt in my mind GM Botterill is going to make a trade around the Free Agency mark trading Kane for an established scorer like him for a puck moving defensmen, I'm thinking Vatanen.

[Taro T]

I was just review Baker's draft preview and a few things occurred to me.  http://www.sabresprospects.com/2017/06/buffalo-sabres-2017-draft-preview.html

 

1) Baker said Center was our deepest position, with ROR, Jack, Sam plus Asplund, Pu, emerging Chris Brown plus Malone.

2) Jbot just added centers Middelstadt and Davidsson to an already crowded center pipeline.  

 

This raised one thought and one question.

1) I ultimately don't mind have an overload of high end talent down the middle because after D it's the most in demand position in the NHL, some can transition to wing and Regier never drafted any and we saw the results of that.

2) But what does that say about Jbot's opinion of TM's prospects?

As you mentioned, it's good to have C depth. Nearly all C's can play wing. The opposite is rarely true. And C's are always tradeable. Way better to have too many than not enough.

 

Regeir didn't not draft C's. It's just he didn't nearly soon enough after Black Sunday.

 

Not sure what it says about his opinion of TM's efforts. But 5-6 D are ALWAYS available. If Housley is the D whisperer many people think he is, they might have 5 top 4 guys not counting Guhle who's on his way. All of which are mid 20's or younger. If your D can all play and will be good for the next 7 years, does it really matter what's in the pipeline? How often have the Hawks worried about it w/ Keith, Seabrook, & Hjalmerson manning the top spots?

[GASabresIUFAN]

As you mentioned, it's good to have C depth. Nearly all C's can play wing. The opposite is rarely true. And C's are always tradeable. Way better to have too many than not enough.

 

Regeir didn't not draft C's. It's just he didn't nearly soon enough after Black Sunday.

 

Not sure what it says about his opinion of TM's efforts. But 5-6 D are ALWAYS available. If Housley is the D whisperer many people think he is, they might have 5 top 4 guys not counting Guhle who's on his way. All of which are mid 20's or younger. If your D can all play and will be good for the next 7 years, does it really matter what's in the pipeline? How often have the Hawks worried about it w/ Keith, Seabrook, & Hjalmerson manning the top spots?

You need a pipeline because you can't pay everyone in a cap world.  Two or three core D maybe, but then regular turnover.  Chicago has the big three but traded or lost, Campbell, Oduya, now TVR and Hjalmerson.  Pitt traded away Whitney and Goligoski, lost Orpik, Martin and Scuderi during this dynasty.  Only a regular flow of decent cheap young players makes staying on top in a cap world possible.  

 

You are seeing the problem of no pipeline first hand in Buffalo right now.  We had last season 5 D making 3 mill or more and they stunk for the most part.  Two are gone to free agency (Kulikov and Franson). One should be gone (Gorges), but we have only 1 D prospect who could possibly step into the NHL and that is rookie Guhle with his 3 NHL games.  So Jbot had to sign Antipin and trade for Baloo to help fill the gap of the diminished pipeline.  Fans are still clamoring for more D improvement.

 

I wonder how people would be feeling right now if we had Montour, Chychrun and Guhle ready to step in?

Edited June 25, 2017 by GASabresFan

[JohnnyK]

Teams should always go BPA especially hockey!!!

[Weave]

I was just review Baker's draft preview and a few things occurred to me.  http://www.sabresprospects.com/2017/06/buffalo-sabres-2017-draft-preview.html

2) But what does that say about Jbot's opinion of TM's prospects?

 

 

I think mostly what it says is, Botteril has a different blueprint in mind, that requires a different type of player.  And he is now in the process of stocking the cupboard with that type of player.

 

We are going to see a 50% turnover in this team and prospects in the next 12 months IMO.  We've already seen that Carrier was expendable under Botteril's blueprint.  I suspect quite a few more of GMTM's pet pick ups are also going to be moved on.

 

As far as the3 draft goes.  If Middlefinger becomes a top 6 NHL'er and the goalie makes the show, this draft will be a B+.  If any other prospect makes it, perfect score.

[woods-racer]

As of today, we wind up getting 2 centers and a goalie that should not have fallen so low in the draft to us, and a starting NHL defenseman all in the first 3 rounds. The only 3 rounds that really matter.

 

I score it an A plus on potential. Which is what the draft is, picking potential. Where they play is irrelevant.

Edited June 25, 2017 by Woods-Racer

[Taro T]

You need a pipeline because you can't pay everyone in a cap world.  Two or three core D maybe, but then regular turnover.  Chicago has the big three but traded or lost, Campbell, Oduya, now TVR and Hjalmerson.  Pitt traded away Whitney and Goligoski, lost Orpik, Martin and Scuderi during this dynasty.  Only a regular flow of decent cheap young players makes staying on top in a cap world possible.  

 

You are seeing the problem of no pipeline first hand in Buffalo right now.  We had last season 5 D making 3 mill or more and they stunk for the most part.  Two are gone to free agency (Kulikov and Franson). One should be gone (Gorges), but we have only 1 D prospect who could possibly step into the NHL and that is rookie Guhle with his 3 NHL games.  So Jbot had to sign Antipin and trade for Baloo to help fill the gap of the diminished pipeline.  Fans are still clamoring for more D improvement.

 

I wonder how people would be feeling right now if we had Montour, Chychrun and Guhle ready to step in?

Slight exaggeration that the pipeline doesn't matter, but if Housley measures up just going for the reach in the 3rd isn't a killer. They will have time to restock the pipeline via draft AND trades over the next 3 seasons. It certainly appears that Ra-cha-cha is actually more than an after thought for the new regime.

 

And Chychrun was the kid they should've gone w/ last year. ;)

[LGR4GM]

No Chychrun wasn't

[French Collection]

I know we need D depth and hope they found a couple.

 

The large number of C depth does not bother me. Not all of them can play C at the NHL level so some will move to the wing, be traded for other assets or fill a need in Rochester.

Centre is the position many high end skaters play. If you draft BPA, there are more of them than other forward positions.

 

Look at Team Canada's roster at the recent World Cup, they only had 2 natural wingers on the 4 lines, Marchand and Perry.

They had centres Crosby, Toews, Tavares, Bergeron, Thornton, O'Reilly, Stamkos, Giroux, Couture, Getzlaf and Duchene mixed up on the 4 lines.

 

Granted this was a short tournament playing for your country, but parking the egos and accepting a role is a big part of a winning team.

[Taro T]

No Chychrun wasn't

Yes, he was. :p

[GASabresIUFAN]

Yes, he was. :P

Chychrun or Sergachev with one.  

[inkman]

As of today, we wind up getting 2 centers and a goalie that should not have fallen so low in the draft to us, and a starting NHL defenseman all in the first 3 rounds. The only 3 rounds that really matter.

 

I score it an A plus on potential. Which is what the draft is, picking potential. Where they play is irrelevant.

Both Centers have been projected as wings at the NHL level

[rakish]

Yes, he was. :P

 

I'm happy having Chychrun in my draft contest, but the best play last year was getting ahead of AZ to take Keller.

 

This year, I thought the first 12 players were almost equivalent. Middlestadt? fine, Vilardi? fine, at least they didn't do something stupid. I prefer Liljegren, but not by enough to be upset about it.

[ct fab]

Ask me in 4 years, stupid to guess now

[North Buffalo]

We will see, if the any of the turn out A, if none do... possible drop to D+, got one via trade for a third.... Mitts and the goalie good picks. The D we shall see again. There are D in the pipeline as listed above. Not as bad as people think... the question can Housley get enough of them to take the next step.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I'm going to revise my vote up to a B for three reasons.

 

1) When I look back at the 2005 team, I realize that having the Roy/Vanek third line created huge matchup problems for our opponents.  That team would have easily won the Cup had even 4 of the D remained healthy.  I think the drafting of Mittelstadt creates that dimension long-term.  A spine of ROR, Eichel and Mittelstadt will be extremely hard to play against.

2) I didn't give Jbot enough credit for turning a 3rd into a young NHL player who will jump into our lineup immediately and at worst play 15-17 minutes a night, but under Housley's guidance could be so much more.

3) After thinking about it some more, a team that consistently finds 3 NHL players in a draft will be solid for years to come.  Middelstadt and the goalie will be NHL player someday.  Reading more about Davidsson, I think he also has a chance of being an NHL player.  

[LGR4GM]

Yes, he was. :p

Nah uhh! :p

[Sabre fan]

Some interesting food for thought regarding draft picks...TSN did the following

 

 

What I did was pull out every single draft pick from 2000-2009 (a 10-year span) based on the round they were selected, and binned the players into two groups: players who managed to log at least 50 career games at the NHL level (a reasonable way to identify players who, at worst, became replacement level NHL talent), and players who managed to log 0-49 NHL games at the NHL level (our way to identify a ‘failed’ draft pick).

How does the data shake out by round?

So, this is reasonably what we would expect. 80% of first-round picks, 44% of second-round picks, and 30% of third-round picks will become low-level (or better) NHL players. Scott Cullen has done great work looking at specific pick values.

\

The whole story...http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

[Thorny]

Both Centers have been projected as wings at the NHL level

Not necessarily Mittelstadt. He certainly has the speed and skating for NHL centre. TSN had him projected at 2C.

[Weave]

Some interesting food for thought regarding draft picks...TSN did the following

 

 

What I did was pull out every single draft pick from 2000-2009 (a 10-year span) based on the round they were selected, and binned the players into two groups: players who managed to log at least 50 career games at the NHL level (a reasonable way to identify players who, at worst, became replacement level NHL talent), and players who managed to log 0-49 NHL games at the NHL level (our way to identify a ‘failed’ draft pick).

How does the data shake out by round?

So, this is reasonably what we would expect. 80% of first-round picks, 44% of second-round picks, and 30% of third-round picks will become low-level (or better) NHL players. Scott Cullen has done great work looking at specific pick values.

\

The whole story...http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

 

And if you break the 1st round into smaller segments that curve gets even more interesting.  It's irrational to sweat 3rd round and lower picks.

[Sabre fan]

And if you break the 1st round into smaller segments that curve gets even more interesting.  It's irrational to sweat 3rd round and lower picks.

exactly...even 1st and 2nd round picks are not a sure thing, but certainly after 3 the odds are not very good of anybody making it to the big show 

[stinky finger]

Ask me in 4 years, stupid to guess now

I'll try to remember.

 

In the meantime, It would be fair (fun) to speculate (guess) now on this draft and maybe stupid to to paint anything definitive regarding it.

[LGR4GM]

[bunomatic]

Some interesting food for thought regarding draft picks...TSN did the following

 

 

What I did was pull out every single draft pick from 2000-2009 (a 10-year span) based on the round they were selected, and binned the players into two groups: players who managed to log at least 50 career games at the NHL level (a reasonable way to identify players who, at worst, became replacement level NHL talent), and players who managed to log 0-49 NHL games at the NHL level (our way to identify a ‘failed’ draft pick).

How does the data shake out by round?

So, this is reasonably what we would expect. 80% of first-round picks, 44% of second-round picks, and 30% of third-round picks will become low-level (or better) NHL players. Scott Cullen has done great work looking at specific pick values.

\

The whole story...http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

What that graph shows to me is that after the 3rd all players have basically the same chance of making it to the show which makes them essentially all equal. Saying JBot failed at this draft because he swung for the fences in the later rounds is foolish. Nobody can project who makes it in these later rounds. Its all a crapshoot. But it is essential that you occasionally hit on some of these picks. I'll judge JBot and his team of scouts 3-4 years from now. I think he absolutely hit in the first and on the goaltender but we'll see. Anything can happen.