Buffalo Bills 2016

[rjones71]

Yup - one of the first things they did after taking over was give a big promotion to Russ Brandon;  the snake oil salesman had clearly weaseled his way into the Pegulas hearts and minds - I figured we were in for years and years of more of the same with the Ralph Whisperer now having the ear of the Pegulas.  Rex Ryan = Russ Brandon's baby.  

 

The entire front office should have been purged,  including the talent/scouting departments.   Clean house, start with a clean sheet of paper.  But The Pegulas seem to love the band aid approach, or trying to 'fix' something instead of replacing it;  it's like they couldn't see that they bought two TERRIBLE teams that needed to start from scratch; there was nothing really worth salvaging about either franchise.      

I couldn't agree more.

[JohnRobertEichel]

Everyone ripping on the ragland trade too, talking about how buffalo could/would have had Dak Prescott and that it was a bad move.

 

At least the Sabres mediocrity only spans a few years, but 17 f'ing years.... Just how?!?!

 

How? Here are three reasons:

 

1. Brady + Belichick. The greatest QB + head coach combo in NFL history joined the Patriots in 2000, the same year our playoff drought began. Starting each season with two guaranteed losses and no hope for anything but the final two playoff spots makes life more difficult.

 

2. Ralph Wilson. Before the turn of the century, he was already known as one of the worst owners in pro sports. His meddling and miserly ways turned off many GM's and coaches over the years - Rauch, Saban, Knox, Philips, Butler, etc. But following the Tom Donahoe disaster and Russ Brandon's ascent, Ralph's incompetence rose to a new level. Marv Levy, Dick Jauron, Buddy Nix, Chan Gailey, Doug Marrone....we're talking completely out of touch with the NFL here. There's a direct correlation with the decline of the 21st century Bills and the decline of Ralph's health.

 

3. Quarterback. This has become far and away the most important position in pro football and maybe all of pro team sports. The new NFL rules have made it so that the old "ground and pound" strategy that WNY has loved since the AFL days leaves little margin for error, while having a franchise QB means you're almost never out of any game. Moreover, a "franchise" QB now means much more than a guy with amazing athletic skills. You need a guy who is mentally strong - unbelievably hard-working, ultra-competitive, and able to process information very quickly on the field. Since Kelly's retirement, the Bills franchise has been largely unwilling to acknowledge this paradigm shift and allocate resources (i.e., high draft picks) accordingly.

 

Two years into the Pegula regime and it looks like the franchise hasn't learned anything. The good news is that everything doesn't need to be blown up this offseason. Not even close. The current Bills are a competent head coach and a competent quarterback away from being a perennial playoff team. 

 

Interesting note: if the Bills win their last 4 games, if the Broncos lose to the Patriots in week 15 and the Raiders in week 17, and if the Dolphins lose to the Patriots in week 17, then the Bills have >99% chance of making the playoffs according to most online stat and simulator models you see online. So basically, the Bills are as few as 3 realistic game outcomes away from controlling their own playoff destiny. As always, of course, the hardest part for the Bills is taking care of their own business.

[PASabreFan]

Great post, FF!

[Jacque Richard]

Yup - one of the first things they did after taking over was give a big promotion to Russ Brandon;  the snake oil salesman had clearly weaseled his way into the Pegulas hearts and minds - I figured we were in for years and years of more of the same with the Ralph Whisperer now having the ear of the Pegulas.  Rex Ryan = Russ Brandon's baby.  

The entire front office should have been purged,  including the talent/scouting departments.   Clean house, start with a clean sheet of paper.  But The Pegulas seem to love the band aid approach, or trying to 'fix' something instead of replacing it;  it's like they couldn't see that they bought two TERRIBLE teams that needed to start from scratch; there was nothing really worth salvaging about either franchise.

 

I like your thoughts there. Their way too cushy over there at OBD

[Claude_Verret]

How? Here are three reasons:

 

1. Brady + Belichick. The greatest QB + head coach combo in NFL history joined the Patriots in 2000, the same year our playoff drought began. Starting each season with two guaranteed losses and no hope for anything but the final two playoff spots makes life more difficult.

 

2. Ralph Wilson. Before the turn of the century, he was already known as one of the worst owners in pro sports. His meddling and miserly ways turned off many GM's and coaches over the years - Rauch, Saban, Knox, Philips, Butler, etc. But following the Tom Donahoe disaster and Russ Brandon's ascent, Ralph's incompetence rose to a new level. Marv Levy, Dick Jauron, Buddy Nix, Chan Gailey, Doug Marrone....we're talking completely out of touch with the NFL here. There's a direct correlation with the decline of the 21st century Bills and the decline of Ralph's health.

 

3. Quarterback. This has become far and away the most important position in pro football and maybe all of pro team sports. The new NFL rules have made it so that the old "ground and pound" strategy that WNY has loved since the AFL days leaves little margin for error, while having a franchise QB means you're almost never out of any game. Moreover, a "franchise" QB now means much more than a guy with amazing athletic skills. You need a guy who is mentally strong - unbelievably hard-working, ultra-competitive, and able to process information very quickly on the field. Since Kelly's retirement, the Bills franchise has been largely unwilling to acknowledge this paradigm shift and allocate resources (i.e., high draft picks) accordingly.

 

Two years into the Pegula regime and it looks like the franchise hasn't learned anything. The good news is that everything doesn't need to be blown up this offseason. Not even close. The current Bills are a competent head coach and a competent quarterback away from being a perennial playoff team. 

 

Interesting note: if the Bills win their last 4 games, if the Broncos lose to the Patriots in week 15 and the Raiders in week 17, and if the Dolphins lose to the Patriots in week 17, then the Bills have >99% chance of making the playoffs according to most online stat and simulator models you see online. So basically, the Bills are as few as 3 realistic game outcomes away from controlling their own playoff destiny. As always, of course, the hardest part for the Bills is taking care of their own business.

 

 

Fixed #1 for emphasis.  If the Bills were in any other division than the AFC East then the drought never reaches 17 seasons.

[nfreeman]

Fixed #1 for emphasis.  If the Bills were in any other division than the AFC East then the drought never reaches 17 seasons.

 

Probably true, but that doesn't excuse the Bills' incompetence.  And frankly, it's not like they've come close to the playoffs a bunch of times and would've gotten there with 1 more win -- I think the only season where that might be applicable is when they crapped the bed against Pittsburgh (which was resting its starters, having already clinched a playoff spot and with nothing to play for) in the win-and-get-in game.

[Claude_Verret]

Probably true, but that doesn't excuse the Bills' incompetence.  And frankly, it's not like they've come close to the playoffs a bunch of times and would've gotten there with 1 more win -- I think the only season where that might be applicable is when they crapped the bed against Pittsburgh (which was resting its starters, having already clinched a playoff spot and with nothing to play for) in the win-and-get-in game.

 

 

Absolutely not, they likely would have snuck in once or twice over the past 17 seasons in another division, and then been summarily dismissed from the the playoffs in short order as pretenders due to the other things outlined in FuhrFury's post.

[JJFIVEOH]

Well, the Bills did cure one bad habit. It seems we always butch that they lose to bad teams, the Bills are 0-6 against winning teams this year. Which means they are 6-0 against teams 500 or worse.

[Claude_Verret]

Well, the Bills did cure one bad habit. It seems we always butch that they lose to bad teams, the Bills are 0-6 against winning teams this year. Which means they are 6-0 against teams 500 or worse.

They beat the Pats*

[JJFIVEOH]

They beat the Pats*

 

That's right, they did.

 

I think Bleacher Report tweeted out that 0-6 stat. 

 

Maybe the meant to say the Bills are 0-6 against the winning team.  :lol:

[Gramps]

How? Here are three reasons:

 

1. Brady + Belichick. The greatest QB + head coach combo in NFL history joined the Patriots in 2000, the same year our playoff drought began. Starting each season with two guaranteed losses and no hope for anything but the final two playoff spots makes life more difficult.

 

2. Ralph Wilson. Before the turn of the century, he was already known as one of the worst owners in pro sports. His meddling and miserly ways turned off many GM's and coaches over the years - Rauch, Saban, Knox, Philips, Butler, etc. But following the Tom Donahoe disaster and Russ Brandon's ascent, Ralph's incompetence rose to a new level. Marv Levy, Dick Jauron, Buddy Nix, Chan Gailey, Doug Marrone....we're talking completely out of touch with the NFL here. There's a direct correlation with the decline of the 21st century Bills and the decline of Ralph's health.

 

3. Quarterback. This has become far and away the most important position in pro football and maybe all of pro team sports. The new NFL rules have made it so that the old "ground and pound" strategy that WNY has loved since the AFL days leaves little margin for error, while having a franchise QB means you're almost never out of any game. Moreover, a "franchise" QB now means much more than a guy with amazing athletic skills. You need a guy who is mentally strong - unbelievably hard-working, ultra-competitive, and able to process information very quickly on the field. Since Kelly's retirement, the Bills franchise has been largely unwilling to acknowledge this paradigm shift and allocate resources (i.e., high draft picks) accordingly.

 

Two years into the Pegula regime and it looks like the franchise hasn't learned anything. The good news is that everything doesn't need to be blown up this offseason. Not even close. The current Bills are a competent head coach and a competent quarterback away from being a perennial playoff team. 

 

Interesting note: if the Bills win their last 4 games, if the Broncos lose to the Patriots in week 15 and the Raiders in week 17, and if the Dolphins lose to the Patriots in week 17, then the Bills have >99% chance of making the playoffs according to most online stat and simulator models you see online. So basically, the Bills are as few as 3 realistic game outcomes away from controlling their own playoff destiny. As always, of course, the hardest part for the Bills is taking care of their own business.

 

Might be wishful thinking as the game is in Miami and the Pats might be resting Brady & others that week.

[Iron Crotch]

Our Director of Pro Personnel was an unpaid media relations intern 15 years ago and now is in charge of pro personnel decisions. He might be really smart and is probably a great guy, but he never played college or pro football and would seem to not have the credentials for the position. IMHO, that's the kind of move the Bills have been making for years. ...the organization needs a new philosophy.

 

 

[inkman]

Our Director of Pro Personnel was an unpaid media relations intern 15 years ago and now is in charge of pro personnel decisions. He might be really smart and is probably a great guy, but he never played college or pro football and would seem to not have the credentials for the position. IMHO, that's the kind of move the Bills have been making for years. ...the organization needs a new philosophy.

Well it seems like he's doing OK. All the pros they have brought in recently are doing pretty good. Zack Brown, Lorenzo Alexander, Shady McCoy, Justin Hunter, are all working out pretty well. Maybe more desk types and less football types is what they need.

[Winston]

Could this dog start at safety for us? :)

 

[JohnRobertEichel]

Might be wishful thinking as the game is in Miami and the Pats might be resting Brady & others that week.

 

Let me clarify the playoff picture for the Bills:

 

So there are 12 other AFC teams still mathematically alive in the playoff hunt. If the Bills win out and finish 10-6, we still can't catch the Raiders, are highly unlikely to catch the Patriots or the Chiefs, are highly unlikely to lose to the Titans in a wildcard tiebreaker (both the Titans and Colts would have to win their final 4 games), and can't enter any scenario where we lose a wildcard spot to the Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, Texans, Colts, or Chargers.

 

So that just leaves the Dolphins and the Broncos that we have to worry about. The Dolphins can lose any one of their final 3 games besides the one against us. It doesn't have to be the Patriots week 17 game; it can also be this Sunday against the Cards or next Sunday against the Jets.

 

The Broncos are a bit more difficult. We essentially have to root for a total collapse on their part: a 1-3 or 0-4 finish. The one exception is where they finish 2-2 but lose to the Patriots in week 15 and the Raiders in week 17. So that's where I was going with my previous post: the Bills are conceivably just 3 very reasonable game outcomes away from controlling their own playoff destiny.

 

The 9-7 Bills scenarios are too ridiculously contrived to bother...basically, every remaining Bills game is must-win...and also start rooting against the Dolphins and Broncos in all of their respective games.

[Wyldnwoody44]

How about the 8-8 bills ;)

 

I just see them crapping the bed against Miami and pitt

[WildCard]

Tyrod got pretty upset when reporters kept asking him about his future recently. Apparently he threw his jersey down and walked out?

[Wyldnwoody44]

I read that earlier too, I think maybe he knows he hasn't performed and his time may be done soon....

[CallawaySabres]

Let me clarify the playoff picture for the Bills:

 

So there are 12 other AFC teams still mathematically alive in the playoff hunt. If the Bills win out and finish 10-6, we still can't catch the Raiders, are highly unlikely to catch the Patriots or the Chiefs, are highly unlikely to lose to the Titans in a wildcard tiebreaker (both the Titans and Colts would have to win their final 4 games), and can't enter any scenario where we lose a wildcard spot to the Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, Texans, Colts, or Chargers.

 

So that just leaves the Dolphins and the Broncos that we have to worry about. The Dolphins can lose any one of their final 3 games besides the one against us. It doesn't have to be the Patriots week 17 game; it can also be this Sunday against the Cards or next Sunday against the Jets.

 

The Broncos are a bit more difficult. We essentially have to root for a total collapse on their part: a 1-3 or 0-4 finish. The one exception is where they finish 2-2 but lose to the Patriots in week 15 and the Raiders in week 17. So that's where I was going with my previous post: the Bills are conceivably just 3 very reasonable game outcomes away from controlling their own playoff destiny.

 

The 9-7 Bills scenarios are too ridiculously contrived to bother...basically, every remaining Bills game is must-win...and also start rooting against the Dolphins and Broncos in all of their respective games.

 

The bottom line is that IF they beat Pitt when the Steelers badly need a win too, Buffalo will prove anything is possible. Tyrod will HAVE to throw in order to win because Big Ben will put up 30. If Bills win, yay, we talk about making a run. If they lose (which is expected with Tyrod), you start Jones for the remaining 4 and say "thanks Tyrod, it's been real but we need a QB that can actually, you know....THROW the ball."

[Samson's Flow]

The bottom line is that IF they beat Pitt when the Steelers badly need a win too, Buffalo will prove anything is possible. Tyrod will HAVE to throw in order to win because Big Ben will put up 30. If Bills win, yay, we talk about making a run. If they lose (which is expected with Tyrod), you start Jones for the remaining 4 and say "thanks Tyrod, it's been real but we need a QB that can actually, you know....THROW the ball."

Sadly, by all reports, Jones is nowhere near being ready and is truly a project.

 

I think there is a 0% chance that they bench Tyrod and play anyone else with eyes on the future. Rex needs every win to convince Pegula there is positive improvement and to keep him on another year.

[inkman]

I read that earlier too, I think maybe he knows he hasn't performed and his time may be done soon....

Zero percent chance of this. Athletes rarely think this let alone admit to it. He was pissed at the question.

[Wyldnwoody44]

Zero percent chance of this. Athletes rarely think this let alone admit to it. He was pissed at the question.

That's just as easily the truth, this whole mess compacted by the long strain of ineptitude makes me a little numb..... But dammit they feel me in just enough to care and listen to wgr

[Doohickie]

Rex needs every win to convince Pegula there is positive improvement and to keep him on another year.

 

I think Rex has already shown the Pegulas all they need to see.

[JJFIVEOH]

As long as the Bills aren't willing to have the patience to groom a QB for a couple of years, and get away from the instant gratification BS, they're never going to be a winner. Most all of the great QB's in this league had to go through the learning stages. Half of the great QB's in this league would have been cast away by the Bills because they didn't win immediately. 

 

Tyrod has issues that can be taught, and fixed with time. What he does have can't be found in most QB's and can't be taught. 

 

He is the least of their concerns at the moment. 

[Wyldnwoody44]

As long as the Bills aren't willing to have the patience to groom a QB for a couple of years, and get away from the instant gratification BS, they're never going to be a winner. Most all of the great QB's in this league had to go through the learning stages. Half of the great QB's in this league would have been cast away by the Bills because they didn't win immediately.

 

Tyrod has issues that can be taught, and fixed with time. What he does have can't be found in most QB's and can't be taught.

 

He is the least of their concerns at the moment.

You can't teach a qb to see and throw in the middle of the field, to not bail out of the pocket too quickly.... He's not a rookie, these are things that are ingrained.

 

Our D is subpar for having "a defensive coach" but he is definitely on the list for concerns