pi2000 Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 Hey Pi, I'm planning a nice avatar for you :devil: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23842-tank-30/?view=findpost&p=784219 Haha, yeah well, the bet was for where they would pick, not where they would finish... so we'll have to wait out the lottery, but I'm not liking my chances at this point (a 24th place finishes gives them a 20.5% chance at picking in the top 3). I predicted they would finish with 79 points and in 27th place (4th), which would've given them a 58% chance of picking in the top 5. Looks like I'll be very close on the point total, just underestimated the ineptitude of the Canadian teams. If they stay where they are in 24th place (7th): Odds of picking: 1st: 6.5% 2nd: 6.8% 3rd: 7.2% xxx 7th: 27.8% 8th: 39.1% 9th: 11.6% 10th: 0.74% To summarize, if they stay in 24th, they have a 20.5% chance to move up into the top 3, a 27.8% chance to stay at pick 7, and a 51.5% chance to move down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 What was the bet? We made an offseason avatar bet. If the Sabres draft in the top 5 then he picks my avatar. Outside of the top 5 and I pick his. But if we win the lottery? This is true, but I just don't like our odds. http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23842-tank-30/?view=findpost&p=784219 Haha, yeah well, the bet was for where they would pick, not where they would finish... so we'll have to wait out the lottery, but I'm not liking my chances at this point (a 24th place finishes gives them a 20.5% chance at picking in the top 3). I predicted they would finish with 79 points and in 27th place (4th), which would've given them a 58% chance of picking in the top 5. Looks like I'll be very close on the point total, just underestimated the ineptitude of the Canadian teams. If they stay where they are in 24th place (7th): Odds of picking: 1st: 6.5% 2nd: 6.8% 3rd: 7.2% xxx 7th: 27.8% 8th: 39.1% 9th: 11.6% 10th: 0.74% To summarize, if they stay in 24th, they have a 20.5% chance to move up into the top 3, a 27.8% chance to stay at pick 7, and a 51.5% chance to move down. I like the breakdown. Didn't realize we would have such a high percentage chance moving down. Ugh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 (edited) Hey Pi, I'm planning a nice avatar for you :devil: Please Please Please make it Auston Matthews-themed! :) Edited April 4, 2016 by MattPie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 Please Please Please make it Auston Matthews-themed! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 Please Please Please make it Auston Matthews-themed! :) :lol: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 Not sure where to put this, but I figured the tank thread would be most appropriate. I know we're still a bottom-10 team this year, but the goal differential improvement is pretty startling. Anyone looking for reasons to hope for next year should cling to this. Joe Yerdon @JoeYerdon 47m47 minutes ago For instance: With 3 games left, the #Sabres have scored 191 goals. In 14-15 they had 153. In 13-14 they had 150. Joe Yerdon @JoeYerdon 44m44 minutes ago #Sabres true goal differential this season is -16. In 14-15 it was -116 (!!!!!) and in 13-14 it was -93. They're 100 goals better this year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 Not sure where to put this, but I figured the tank thread would be most appropriate. I know we're still a bottom-10 team this year, but the goal differential improvement is pretty startling. Anyone looking for reasons to hope for next year should cling to this. Joe Yerdon @JoeYerdon 47m47 minutes ago For instance: With 3 games left, the #Sabres have scored 191 goals. In 14-15 they had 153. In 13-14 they had 150. Joe Yerdon @JoeYerdon 44m44 minutes ago #Sabres true goal differential this season is -16. In 14-15 it was -116 (!!!!!) and in 13-14 it was -93. They're 100 goals better this year! Joe needs to shut up, there are still a few games left. If Buffalo loses those 80-0 combined we know who to blame. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23842-tank-30/?view=findpost&p=784219 Haha, yeah well, the bet was for where they would pick, not where they would finish... so we'll have to wait out the lottery, but I'm not liking my chances at this point (a 24th place finishes gives them a 20.5% chance at picking in the top 3). I predicted they would finish with 79 points and in 27th place (4th), which would've given them a 58% chance of picking in the top 5. Looks like I'll be very close on the point total, just underestimated the ineptitude of the Canadian teams. If they stay where they are in 24th place (7th): Odds of picking: 1st: 6.5% 2nd: 6.8% 3rd: 7.2% xxx 7th: 27.8% 8th: 39.1% 9th: 11.6% 10th: 0.74% To summarize, if they stay in 24th, they have a 20.5% chance to move up into the top 3, a 27.8% chance to stay at pick 7, and a 51.5% chance to move down. Good stuff. Thanks. I found it kinda interesting that their odds of moving up from #7 into the top 3 are better than their odds were last year of "keeping" #1 overall despite finishing DFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 Good stuff. Thanks. I found it kinda interesting that their odds of moving up from #7 into the top 3 are better than their odds were last year of "keeping" #1 overall despite finishing DFL. Yea it is almost like the NHL has completely f'ed up the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 Joe needs to shut up, there are still a few games left. If Buffalo loses those 80-0 combined we know who to blame. :) He's not a "noted jerk" for nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 Yea it is almost like the NHL has completely f'ed up the draft. Kinda depends on your view of tanking, innit? If you don't want teams to race to the bottom in pursuit of #1 overall, then the NHL did the right thing by only giving the DFL team a 20% chance of taking home McDavid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 Kinda depends on your view of tanking, innit? If you don't want teams to race to the bottom in pursuit of #1 overall, then the NHL did the right thing by only giving the DFL team a 20% chance of taking home McDavid. That doesn't bother me. The making it harder for the last place team to draft 1st overall. What bothers me is top 3 picks being up and how a team could miss the playoffs by 1 point and draft an Auston Matthews. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 Kinda depends on your view of tanking, innit? If you don't want teams to race to the bottom in pursuit of #1 overall, then the NHL did the right thing by only giving the DFL team a 20% chance of taking home McDavid. Of course, teams still did race to the bottom, so... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3putt Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 That doesn't bother me. The making it harder for the last place team to draft 1st overall. What bothers me is top 3 picks being up and how a team could miss the playoffs by 1 point and draft an Auston Matthews. And you can be assured that when Toews or Kane is long in the tooth and the Hawks miss the playoffs, they will win the lottery and get the next McDavid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted April 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 That doesn't bother me. The making it harder for the last place team to draft 1st overall. What bothers me is top 3 picks being up and how a team could miss the playoffs by 1 point and draft an Auston Matthews. That's what supposed to deter tanking. See, any yahoo that doesn't make the playoffs can win so don't try to be last eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3putt Posted April 4, 2016 Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 A draft is designed to induce sustainable competitive balance. It garauntees a bottom team a shot at direction altering talent. If you want to deter tanking, eliminate the draft altogethor and make all unsigned age eligible players free agents. No draft, no tank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 A draft is designed to induce sustainable competitive balance. It garauntees a bottom team a shot at direction altering talent. If you want to deter tanking, eliminate the draft altogethor and make all unsigned age eligible players free agents. No draft, no tank. Tanking is a legitimate strategy. Why the NHL is so anti-tank, I don't know. There's no lottery in the most successful sports league in the universe (NFL), so why does the NHL need to be different? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 Tanking is a legitimate strategy. Why the NHL is so anti-tank, I don't know. There's no lottery in the most successful sports league in the universe (NFL), so why does the NHL need to be different? The owners whine more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 Tanking is a legitimate strategy. Why the NHL is so anti-tank, I don't know. There's no lottery in the most successful sports league in the universe (NFL), so why does the NHL need to be different? The NFL draft is a different animal. There are so many positions that even if you're half-way down the 1st round, you might end up picking the top player in whatever position. Other than a few special guys (QBs, etc.), being first overall isn't that much better than being 10th in terms of player impact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 Again I don't have a problem with the concept of a lottery, but if Detroit misses the playoffs this year and get Matthews... f the NHL. 14 teams miss the playoffs, so how about the bottom 7 are lottery eligible and it is just the top pick. Done. There, tanking doesn't insure anything. Teams will still rebuild via the draft but maybe 1 team won't get 4 top picks in 7 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bunomatic Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 (edited) Again I don't have a problem with the concept of a lottery, but if Detroit misses the playoffs this year and get Matthews... f the NHL. 14 teams miss the playoffs, so how about the bottom 7 are lottery eligible and it is just the top pick. Done. There, tanking doesn't insure anything. Teams will still rebuild via the draft but maybe 1 team won't get 4 top picks in 7 years. I kind of like Shane Doans idea of once you're officially eliminated the goal is to get as many points from then till the end of the season and the team which gets the most points wins the pick. It would then be a race to play lights out rather than ice the worst team. Maybe change it up a little to only include the first 5 that are officially eliminated ? Edited April 5, 2016 by bunomatic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 If you want to deter tanking, eliminate the draft altogethor and make all unsigned age eligible players free agents. No draft, no tank. So, the international futbol model, in essence. It fascinates me no end that "socialist" Europe has a much more free market approach to pro sports than America does. There are many reasons that I think the American leagues will never go this route. For starters, there's that whole complicated tiering system over in Europe where a club can be successful and beloved even though it doesn't play in the top flight league (Leeds United, Queens Park Rangers). In addition to which: The truly free market approach seems to undermine or even eliminate parity among clubs (e.g., there's great quality at the top of most European leagues, but after the top, top teams, you're getting more of a hound's breakfast). The free market approach also seems to result in clubs folding when they become illiquid after trying and failing to spend to keep up with teams they're trying to catch. Any reason to think an American pro league could eliminate the draft but, say, keep a salary cap structure? Even in that event, I still think you'd end up with teams in the most desirable locations getting the best talent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 I kind of like Shane Doans idea of once you're officially eliminated the goal is to get as many points from then till the end of the season and the team which gets the most points wins the pick. It would then be a race to play lights out rather than ice the worst team. Maybe change it up a little to only include the first 5 that are officially eliminated ? Don't like that idea. Then you'll have small market teams who can never compete, or teams with injuries down the stretch get punished. The NHL wants parody. The only way to do that is to give the worst teams the best picks. I say just get rid of the lottery altogether. There is nothing sinister about tanking. If a franchise wants to risk alienating their fan base and season ticket holders by fielding an inferior product to get a higher pick, then they have every right to do so. There was no draft lottery in the NHL for 80 years... 80. Just get rid of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 Don't like that idea. Then you'll have small market teams who can never compete, or teams with injuries down the stretch get punished. The NHL wants parody. The only way to do that is to give the worst teams the best picks. I say just get rid of the lottery altogether. There is nothing sinister about tanking. If a franchise wants to risk alienating their fan base and season ticket holders by fielding an inferior product to get a higher pick, then they have every right to do so. There was no draft lottery in the NHL for 80 years... 80. Just get rid of it. Agreed. Plus, without the lottery, Edmonton wouldn't have won it 4 times. So, you know, that whole thing about the lottery dissuading a team from perpetual blowing ass.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bunomatic Posted April 5, 2016 Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 Don't like that idea. Then you'll have small market teams who can never compete, or teams with injuries down the stretch get punished. The NHL wants parody. The only way to do that is to give the worst teams the best picks. I say just get rid of the lottery altogether. There is nothing sinister about tanking. If a franchise wants to risk alienating their fan base and season ticket holders by fielding an inferior product to get a higher pick, then they have every right to do so. There was no draft lottery in the NHL for 80 years... 80. Just get rid of it. I'm not talking about a lottery. And injuries are a part of this sport , always have been and always will play a part in a teams performance or lack thereof. The cap is supposed to help small markets compete and hold the large markets in check anyways ( some would argue whether it actually works ) so rewarding the best team of the worst 5 would actually go a long way towards changing this culture of rewarding teams that want to lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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