2016 NHL Draft

[WildCard]

WGR had someone on a few weeks ago (can't remember if it was Pronman or Morreale) saying that scouts are concerned about Chychrun's development stagnating. Just hasn't taken the step forward scouts were expecting. Pretty sure he was consensus #2 behind Matthews heading into this season, and now he's sliding to the back of the top-10? Not sure that's a guy I want to hitch my wagon to, depending where we end up of course.

Marino's development hit a wall in his draft year...

 

*nods to espn's 30-30 crew*

[Rasmus_]

Nah. If I'm drafting Tkachuk it's to do for Jack what Moulson was supposed to be doing. Give me a net front presence and in close goal scoring and I'm happy.

 

 

Spot on TBG, he skates well and would be a perfect fit if we were to fall 5-7.  

[LGR4GM]

If we draft outside the top 5, I would take a long hard look at Mikhail Sergachev. He is a very fluid skater with great acceleration. His wrist shot is hard and crisp. His defensive zone play is solid and getting better as his first year in NA progresses. The few write ups I can find talk about his tenacity so no lazy russian stereotypes here.  He won't be 18 until the end of June so he is young and already turning heads. He probably spends another year in Juniors but at 6'3" and 205lbs he has some serious skill and could be a great fit for Rasmus Ristolainen.

 

[Crusader1969]

If we draft outside the top 5, I would take a long hard look at Mikhail Sergachev. He is a very fluid skater with great acceleration. His wrist shot is hard and crisp. His defensive zone play is solid and getting better as his first year in NA progresses. The few write ups I can find talk about his tenacity so no lazy russian stereotypes here.  He won't be 18 until the end of June so he is young and already turning heads. He probably spends another year in Juniors but at 6'3" and 205lbs he has some serious skill and could be a great fit for Rasmus Ristolainen.

 

 

 

Definitely ranks ahead of Juolevi in my books. As i've mentioned before, the kid is a hammer. Every game you watch you are guaranteed to see him deliver at least 1 big hit and he will make at least one attempt to carry the puck over the blue line and drive to the net.  People also rave over his calm under pressure.

 

I re-watched the WJC game between Finland and Russia the other day. Juolevi was directly responsible for 1 goal against and got caught flat-footed another time that led to a great opportunity for the Russians.  

 

Chychrun hasn't had as good a season as many expected but scouts / gms have got to be impressed with his size & speed combination. I'll be surprised if he isn't the first Dman taken. 

[LGR4GM]

Definitely ranks ahead of Juolevi in my books. As i've mentioned before, the kid is a hammer. Every game you watch you are guaranteed to see him deliver at least 1 big hit and he will make at least one attempt to carry the puck over the blue line and drive to the net. People also rave over his calm under pressure.

 

I re-watched the WJC game between Finland and Russia the other day. Juolevi was directly responsible for 1 goal against and got caught flat-footed another time that led to a great opportunity for the Russians.

 

Chychrun hasn't had as good a season as many expected but scouts / gms have got to be impressed with his size & speed combination. I'll be surprised if he isn't the first Dman taken.

This is where I'm at. I still like the Finns though.

[Crusader1969]

there will be a lot of European scouts in Oulu Finland tomorrow. Karpat hosts Tappara in Liiga which means Puljujarvi plays head to head vs Laine.

 

if you are snowed in tomorrow it may be worth finding the game some where on the world wide web.

 

Edited March 1, 2016 by Crusader1969

[Thorny]

Rumor has it it was to take Dylan Larkin.  That's more disappointing then missing out on Babcock at the 11th hour.

 

But a pleasant nod to GMTM's eye for young talent.

[Derrico]

ISS releases updated rankings.  Chychrun falls out of top 5.

 

http://www.isshockey.com/iss-hockey-releases-iss-top-30-for-march/

 

1. Mathews

2. Puljujarvi

3. Laine

4. Nylander

5. Tkachuk

Edited March 2, 2016 by Derrico

[Crusader1969]

ISS releases updated rankings.  Chychrun falls out of top 5.

 

http://www.isshockey.com/iss-hockey-releases-iss-top-30-for-march/

 

1. Mathews

2. Puljujarvi

3. Laine

4. Nylander

5. Tkachuk

If a Sabres are eyeing Chychrun, I think it's important to pick before the oilers as they will take Him, assuming they don't win one of the lottery spots. Their draft board will be Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, Chychrun.

[LGR4GM]

If a Sabres are eyeing Chychrun, I think it's important to pick before the oilers as they will take Him, assuming they don't win one of the lottery spots. Their draft board will be Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, Chychrun.

I don't think the Sabres draft board should be that. Nylander, Thkachuk and Sergachev are all above Chychrun for me at this stage.

[Huckleberry]

I don't think the Sabres draft board should be that. Nylander, Thkachuk and Sergachev are all above Chychrun for me at this stage.

 

Yeah chychrun is reported not having a good season.   I can see him drop out of top 10.

 

That being said, I think Murray is going to make a couple of splashes at the draft if the price is right.    Only hope other gm's don't profit from the fact they think he might be desperate for it.

[Rasmus_]

I want him (Chychrun) if he can fall down to the mid first round.  He has the tools to be dynamic. 

I don't think the Sabres draft board should be that. Nylander, Thkachuk and Sergachev are all above Chychrun for me at this stage.

 

Agree with Tkachuk, Sergachev, Dubois and Nylander over him right now.  

Edited March 3, 2016 by TheCerebral1

[Crusader1969]

I don't think the Sabres draft board should be that. Nylander, Thkachuk and Sergachev are all above Chychrun for me at this stage.

 

 

Sorry was talking the Oilers draft Board.

[LGR4GM]

Sorry was talking the Oilers draft Board.

I could see them doing that. I believe it would be a mistake to rank Chychurn that high. If Edm was smart they would trade RNH for the defender they desperately need and find a way to pry 1 of the GT's out of Anaheim.

 

 

 

 

 

So to run the numbers.  This years draft is a bit different because the CJHL is not featured prominatley. It makes point comparisons a little harder but still let's take a look at how the top 5 offensive players are doing.

 

Matthews: 36games - 0.694gpg - 1.306ppg (NLA)

P. Laine: 43games - 0.395 gpg - 0.767ppg (Liiga)

Puljujarvi: 49games - 0.245gpg - 0.551ppg (Liiga)

Tkachuk: 48games - 0.479gpg - 1.938ppg (OHL)

Nylander: 52games - 0.538gpg - 1.385ppg (OHL)

 

So what does this tell us? Well first Laine has the shortest name. Okay serious now. It shows that Laine should be targeted above Puljujarvi.  I thought their points were closer but that is enough of a gap that Laine is clearly the better player. I don't think Puljujarvi's two way play is enough to make that up. Matthews doesn't need HS math to tell us all he is outscoring everyone else. Is he in the best Euro league? no. But he is producing there and playing men. I would expect him to finish strong. Now Tkachuk and Nylander we can also directly compare because they play in the same league. I like Nylander's ability to put the puck in the net. I still favor him over Tkachuk because a lot of Tkachuk points are assists which isn't bad but they should be valued a bit less then goals in this case. He isn't Sam Reinhart who was literally carrying his team.

 

Bottom line for me is that Matthews is in a class of his own. This is followed by the Finns. I think Laine is still closer to Puljujarvi than he is to Matthews but if that is the 2nd overall pick anyone should be ecstatic. Puljujarvi is above his OHL counterparts but I believe that gap is much closer than ppg makes it appear. Yes Liiga is harder than the OHL but they are producing OHL numbers on par with some former top 5 picks. While I currently think Nylander is better if we draft Tkachuk I really couldn't complain much. That comes down to I want offensive generators and I think the other 4 are generating offense more.

 

I think we draft in the top 5 and my gut is saying we pick 4th. At #4 I take Nylander junior and get a solid kid who I think will score at the NHL level. He probably spends another year in Juniors to continue to adjust to NA style but I think out of the players remaining he will be the best scorer. The real question will be what happens if picks 1-3 fall like this... Matthews, Laine, Nylander/Tkachuk, this means Puljujarvi and someone else will be sitting there for us. In that case I take Puljujarvi. I firmly believe that if we pick 4th one of the Finns will be there.  I also think that if Edmonton drafts top 3 they could reach for a defender.  Can't wait to see how the lottery plays out.

[Derrico]

I could see them doing that. I believe it would be a mistake to rank Chychurn that high. If Edm was smart they would trade RNH for the defender they desperately need and find a way to pry 1 of the GT's out of Anaheim.

 

 

 

 

 

So to run the numbers.  This years draft is a bit different because the CJHL is not featured prominatley. It makes point comparisons a little harder but still let's take a look at how the top 5 offensive players are doing.

 

Matthews: 36games - 0.694gpg - 1.306ppg (NLA)

P. Laine: 43games - 0.395 gpg - 0.767ppg (Liiga)

Puljujarvi: 49games - 0.245gpg - 0.551ppg (Liiga)

Tkachuk: 48games - 0.479gpg - 1.938ppg (OHL)

Nylander: 52games - 0.538gpg - 1.385ppg (OHL)

 

So what does this tell us? Well first Laine has the shortest name. Okay serious now. It shows that Laine should be targeted above Puljujarvi.  I thought their points were closer but that is enough of a gap that Laine is clearly the better player. I don't think Puljujarvi's two way play is enough to make that up. Matthews doesn't need HS math to tell us all he is outscoring everyone else. Is he in the best Euro league? no. But he is producing there and playing men. I would expect him to finish strong. Now Tkachuk and Nylander we can also directly compare because they play in the same league. I like Nylander's ability to put the puck in the net. I still favor him over Tkachuk because a lot of Tkachuk points are assists which isn't bad but they should be valued a bit less then goals in this case. He isn't Sam Reinhart who was literally carrying his team.

 

Bottom line for me is that Matthews is in a class of his own. This is followed by the Finns. I think Laine is still closer to Puljujarvi than he is to Matthews but if that is the 2nd overall pick anyone should be ecstatic. Puljujarvi is above his OHL counterparts but I believe that gap is much closer than ppg makes it appear. Yes Liiga is harder than the OHL but they are producing OHL numbers on par with some former top 5 picks. While I currently think Nylander is better if we draft Tkachuk I really couldn't complain much. That comes down to I want offensive generators and I think the other 4 are generating offense more.

 

I think we draft in the top 5 and my gut is saying we pick 4th. At #4 I take Nylander junior and get a solid kid who I think will score at the NHL level. He probably spends another year in Juniors to continue to adjust to NA style but I think out of the players remaining he will be the best scorer. The real question will be what happens if picks 1-3 fall like this... Matthews, Laine, Nylander/Tkachuk, this means Puljujarvi and someone else will be sitting there for us. In that case I take Puljujarvi. I firmly believe that if we pick 4th one of the Finns will be there.  I also think that if Edmonton drafts top 3 they could reach for a defender.  Can't wait to see how the lottery plays out.

The first bolded sentence would shock me.  The second wouldn't shock me but I would still be pretty surprised.

[Crusader1969]

Good analysis, I would suggest adding Dubois to the potential top 5 picks. 

 

37G 50A 1.52PPG QJMHL   not to mention 6'3 202lbs - father was a professional body builder. Kid takes fitness seriously

Edited March 4, 2016 by Crusader1969

[Rasmus_]

I could see them doing that. I believe it would be a mistake to rank Chychurn that high. If Edm was smart they would trade RNH for the defender they desperately need and find a way to pry 1 of the GT's out of Anaheim.

 

 

 

 

 

I could see them doing that. I believe it would be a mistake to rank Chychurn that high. If Edm was smart they would trade RNH for the defender they desperately need and find a way to pry 1 of the GT's out of Anaheim.

 

 

 

 

 

So to run the numbers.  This years draft is a bit different because the CJHL is not featured prominatley. It makes point comparisons a little harder but still let's take a look at how the top 5 offensive players are doing.

 

Matthews: 36games - 0.694gpg - 1.306ppg (NLA)

P. Laine: 43games - 0.395 gpg - 0.767ppg (Liiga)

Puljujarvi: 49games - 0.245gpg - 0.551ppg (Liiga)

Tkachuk: 48games - 0.479gpg - 1.938ppg (OHL)

Nylander: 52games - 0.538gpg - 1.385ppg (OHL)

 

So what does this tell us? Well first Laine has the shortest name. Okay serious now. It shows that Laine should be targeted above Puljujarvi.  I thought their points were closer but that is enough of a gap that Laine is clearly the better player. I don't think Puljujarvi's two way play is enough to make that up. Matthews doesn't need HS math to tell us all he is outscoring everyone else. Is he in the best Euro league? no. But he is producing there and playing men. I would expect him to finish strong. Now Tkachuk and Nylander we can also directly compare because they play in the same league. I like Nylander's ability to put the puck in the net. I still favor him over Tkachuk because a lot of Tkachuk points are assists which isn't bad but they should be valued a bit less then goals in this case. He isn't Sam Reinhart who was literally carrying his team.

 

Bottom line for me is that Matthews is in a class of his own. This is followed by the Finns. I think Laine is still closer to Puljujarvi than he is to Matthews but if that is the 2nd overall pick anyone should be ecstatic. Puljujarvi is above his OHL counterparts but I believe that gap is much closer than ppg makes it appear. Yes Liiga is harder than the OHL but they are producing OHL numbers on par with some former top 5 picks. While I currently think Nylander is better if we draft Tkachuk I really couldn't complain much. That comes down to I want offensive generators and I think the other 4 are generating offense more.

 

I think we draft in the top 5 and my gut is saying we pick 4th. At #4 I take Nylander junior and get a solid kid who I think will score at the NHL level. He probably spends another year in Juniors to continue to adjust to NA style but I think out of the players remaining he will be the best scorer. The real question will be what happens if picks 1-3 fall like this... Matthews, Laine, Nylander/Tkachuk, this means Puljujarvi and someone else will be sitting there for us. In that case I take Puljujarvi. I firmly believe that if we pick 4th one of the Finns will be there.  I also think that if Edmonton drafts top 3 they could reach for a defender.  Can't wait to see how the lottery plays out.

 

Very well said, and thought out.  I would agree that the difference between Laine and Puljujarvi is really subtext on what you prefer/need/want.  Laine has the better shot, and more of a power forward role.  Puljujarvi has the skating that just draws you in.  His hands are very very sound.  If I'm looking at #4, I would take Tkachuk over Nylander, but it's only with a sparse difference.  I also would look at Chychrun, Sergachev, and Juolevi at #4 very hard based on determining factors for the scouting/front office.  Either way the Sabres will draft someone who helps fill a need and picks the stagnancy of the offense up.  

Good analysis, I would suggest adding Dubois to the potential top 5 picks. 

 

37G 50A 1.52PPG QJMHL   not to mention 6'3 202lbs - father was a professional body builder. Kid takes fitness seriously

 

Totally forgot Dubois in my #4 analysis.  Good call!

[Crusader1969]

Very well said, and thought out.  I would agree that the difference between Laine and Puljujarvi is really subtext on what you prefer/need/want.  Laine has the better shot, and more of a power forward role.  Puljujarvi has the skating that just draws you in.  His hands are very very sound.  If I'm looking at #4, I would take Tkachuk over Nylander, but it's only with a sparse difference.  I also would look at Chychrun, Sergachev, and Juolevi at #4 very hard based on determining factors for the scouting/front office.  Either way the Sabres will draft someone who helps fill a need and picks the stagnancy of the offense up.  

 

Totally forgot Dubois in my #4 analysis.  Good call!

 

At this point, looking at the standings and the teams around them - we may be looking at the 8th to 10th rated player.

Guys like Gauthier, Mcleod, Keller all fine players but none who would be projected to be a Sabre anytime before the 2017-18 or 18/19 season.

 

My guy feeling is the Sabres end up with Juolevi.

[pi2000]

BUF is still 5th in points lost %.     They just played 2 teams below them in the standings.    I still think they finish in the bottom 3 along with TOR and CGY.     EDM is playing better, and so is CBS.     WPG might challenge, they have a tough April.

[K-9]

Good analysis, I would suggest adding Dubois to the potential top 5 picks. 

 

37G 50A 1.52PPG QJMHL   not to mention 6'3 202lbs - father was a professional body builder. Kid takes fitness seriously

Takes fitness seriously? Hmm. I think we have Moulson's next tenant lined up after Jack moves out.

 

GO SABRES!!!

[WildCard]

Puljujarvi out a couple of weeks with LBI

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/injured-nhl-draft-prospect-puljujarvi-out-a-few-weeks/

[Brawndo]

The Sabres are currently 8th in the draft order, granted a few teams behind them have games in hand, but at what draft position would you consider trading the 2016 1st for an established player under the age of 24? This was discussed on WGR this morning.

 

Personally I would not do it this, because of where the draft is located.

[Hoss]

The Sabres are currently 8th in the draft order, granted a few teams behind them have games in hand, but at what draft position would you consider trading the 2016 1st for an established player under the age of 24? This was discussed on WGR this morning.

 

Personally I would not do it this, because of where the draft is located.

If it's a known established player I think it would go over well with the fans. Especially if they pick up another first at some point.

But also: don't make decisions based on what the fans think. We're mostly stupid.

[LGR4GM]

The Sabres are currently 8th in the draft order, granted a few teams behind them have games in hand, but at what draft position would you consider trading the 2016 1st for an established player under the age of 24? This was discussed on WGR this morning.

 

Personally I would not do it this, because of where the draft is located.

10th and I wouldn't trade that pick prior to on the draft floor.

[Randall Flagg]

The Sabres are currently 8th in the draft order, granted a few teams behind them have games in hand, but at what draft position would you consider trading the 2016 1st for an established player under the age of 24? This was discussed on WGR this morning.

 

Personally I would not do it this, because of where the draft is located.

I'd trade the 1st if the value was there. (cough cough OEL plus things cough cough)