Trade: Myers, Stafford, Armia, Lemieux, + Low 1st for Kane, Bogosian, and Kasdorf

[nfreeman]

And I will say it again for the three hundredth time, those close to the situation say Stafford's troubles are two fold, he is actually super hard on himself and he lacks basic hockey sense. The tools are there but knowing where be when to be there is lacking and he tends to go into long funks in a crisis of confidence. He is not too unlike Vanek without the hockey sense.

 

It sounds like those close to the situation agree with my take!  Perhaps they're just helping themselves to free hockey analysis courtesy of SabreSpace.

[tom webster]

It sounds like those close to the situation agree with my take!  Perhaps they're just helping themselves to free hockey analysis courtesy of SabreSpace.

No, I think there is a difference between mental focus and edge although I think most would agree he could play with more edge. In the end he has pretty much established what he is and you are correct, Winnipeg could do better on their top line.

[TrueBlueGED]

Drew Stafford has officially become that guy your company hires who management really likes but who actually doesn't do any real work and no one can figure out why he hasn't been fired yet.

More accurately, he's the guy your company hires to do a job he's competent at only to end up promoting him into a higher position even though he has failed at it previously.

[qwksndmonster]

Drew Stafford is that nice 3rd line winger who can reliably pot ~15 goals a year. He's not a disaster of a possession player, but he's also nothing special as we all know. If your team is relying on him for more than that, prepare to be disappointed.

[Claude_Verret]

More accurately, he's the guy your company hires to do a job he's competent at only to end up promoting him into a higher position even though he has failed at it previously.

 

 

I work with a ###### ton of Drew Staffords

[nfreeman]

No, I think there is a difference between mental focus and edge although I think most would agree he could play with more edge. In the end he has pretty much established what he is and you are correct, Winnipeg could do better on their top line.

 

I think my post was unclear -- I meant "mental focus and mental edge" -- not "mental focus and physical edge."  I agree completely that his issues are primarily mental.

[MattPie]

Drew Stafford is that nice 3rd line winger who can reliably pot ~15 goals a year. He's not a disaster of a possession player, but he's also nothing special as we all know. If your team is relying on him for more than that, prepare to be disappointed.

15 goals is pretty solid 2nd line wing in today's NHL. The #30 RW in goals netted 18 (as did Stafford at #31), #60 had 10, and #90 had 6. 15 goals from a 3rd liner means you have a *very* strong team. It's not unreasonable to think Stafford could creep up in the low-20s in goals playing with a better team than the this year's Sabres and legitimately be a top-30 RW.

Edited August 5, 2015 by MattPie

[Thorny]

So, the trade ended up being Kane, Bogo and Kasdorf for Myers, Stafford, Armia, Lemieux and Roslovic.

 

It will take a few years to see how the youngsters develop. Staf re-signed so it is up to Armia, Lemieux and Roslovic to shine and show what they can do. Armia got rave reviews in the development camp. Morroissey, Petan and Armia were the 3 best layers on the ice.

 

The two year contract current-Stafford was not a part of the trade. He was an upcoming UFA when we traded him, no guarantee we would have signed him for next season. What we traded was a Drew Stafford rental. New contract is separate from the trade, Jets could have signed him during the UFA period if they decided to pursue him.

 

The Winnipeg play-by-play guy was on Hockey Hotline the other day and said it was likely that Stafford would start the season on the top line, replacing Frolik. 

 

I'll say it again:  Stafford has all the physical tools but not the mental focus and edge needed to be a consistently effective player.  If Winnipeg needs him to hold down a top-line slot, they are in trouble.

 

This.

 

Drew Stafford has officially become that guy your company hires who management really likes but who actually doesn't do any real work and no one can figure out why he hasn't been fired yet.  

 

:lol:

[qwksndmonster]

15 goals is pretty solid 2nd line wing in today's NHL. The #30 RW in goals netted 18 (as did Stafford at #31), #60 had 10, and #90 had 6. 15 goals from a 3rd liner means you have a *very* strong team. It's not unreasonable to think Stafford could creep up in the low-20s in goals playing with a better team than the this year's Sabres and legitimately be a top-30 RW.

That makes sense, because when I judge players, I usually do so in the context of where you want them playing if your team is good.  If you're relying on Drew Stafford to be one of the 6 best forwards on your team, that's not good.  So while he may play on the second line most of the time, I still think of him as a 3rd liner.

[MattPie]

That makes sense, because when I judge players, I usually do so in the context of where you want them playing if your team is good.  If you're relying on Drew Stafford to be one of the 6 best forwards on your team, that's not good.  So while he may play on the second line most of the time, I still think of him as a 3rd liner.

I get what you're saying, but I bet that if you watched some team's #2 RW for an entire season you might be frustrated that player too. I'd say Stafford is a borderline #1 RW, but I don't think he'd be out a place on most teams top-6 as long as he's not expected to be the top-2 or 3 players on the team as he was in Buffalo.

 

EDIT: and we're just talking goals here, obviously there are other factors that go into a player's performance.

Edited August 6, 2015 by MattPie

[TrueBlueGED]

I get what you're saying, but I bet that if you watched some team's #2 RW for an entire season you might be frustrated that player too. I'd say Stafford is a borderline #1 RW, but I don't think he'd be out a place on most teams top-6 as long as he's not expected to be the top-2 or 3 players on the team as he was in Buffalo.

 

EDIT: and we're just talking goals here, obviously there are other factors that go into a player's performance.

All of this.

[LTS]

And now we are talking about Drew Stafford again... let's just open up the old thread.  :w00t:

[Sabres Fan in NS]

And now we are talking about Drew Stafford again... let's just open up the old thread.  :w00t:

 

Paging Angry 11 to the All About Drew thread.

[Thorny]

I get what you're saying, but I bet that if you watched some team's #2 RW for an entire season you might be frustrated that player too. I'd say Stafford is a borderline #1 RW, but I don't think he'd be out a place on most teams top-6 as long as he's not expected to be the top-2 or 3 players on the team as he was in Buffalo.

 

EDIT: and we're just talking goals here, obviously there are other factors that go into a player's performance.

 

A lot of the discrepancy comes down to the terminology used and how different people interpret it. When someone says "first line RW", they generally aren't thinking 43 points. But that is what Stafford had last year, and it was good for 29th in the league for RW scoring. So yes, Stafford could be termed a "borderline" first line RW. But "first line" is such a broad ranging term that it can mean different things to different people. 17 RWs had more than 10 points more than Drew last year. The separation between top RWs and lower level "first line" RWs is huge.

 

When someone thinks of a first line RW, they aren't thinking about Drew Stafford. And I would argue that if Drew Stafford is your first line RW, you aren't going to be a good team. But if you are defining first line RW by the top 30 RWs, then yes Drew fits that strict definition.

 

Bottom line is that I would say Stafford would not be out of place in a top 6 at this stage of his career on a mediocre/fair team, but you aren't going to be a top 10 team with with Drew Stafford on your top line. To say he's not out of place as long as he's not one of your top 2 or 3 players on your team is stretching it way too far. Drew Stafford is drastically out of place if he's your 4th best player.

[LGR4GM]

Go look at Stafford's shooting percentage after the trade.  He should plummet back down to career norms just like he always does.  15g, 20a is about what you should expect from Stafford.  The issue is, his two-way game and play off the puck is mediocre at best. 

[MattPie]

A lot of the discrepancy comes down to the terminology used and how different people interpret it. When someone says "first line RW", they generally aren't thinking 43 points. But that is what Stafford had last year, and it was good for 29th in the league for RW scoring. So yes, Stafford could be termed a "borderline" first line RW. But "first line" is such a broad ranging term that it can mean different things to different people. 17 RWs had more than 10 points more than Drew last year. The separation between top RWs and lower level "first line" RWs is huge.

 

When someone thinks of a first line RW, they aren't thinking about Drew Stafford. And I would argue that if Drew Stafford is your first line RW, you aren't going to be a good team. But if you are defining first line RW by the top 30 RWs, then yes Drew fits that strict definition.

 

Bottom line is that I would say Stafford would not be out of place in a top 6 at this stage of his career on a mediocre/fair team, but you aren't going to be a top 10 team with with Drew Stafford on your top line. To say he's not out of place as long as he's not one of your top 2 or 3 players on your team is stretching it way too far. Drew Stafford is drastically out of place if he's your 4th best player.

 

You're right that Drew Stafford doesn't seem like a 1st line RW or top-3 guy, but in reality that's more about fan perception than the quality of the players. We see the truly great RWs (like Ovechkin and PKane (unless he's in jail)) and say, "that's what a top line RW looks like!" while in reality, that's what a top-5 RW looks like, most teams have someone closer to Stafford than those guys. I think it happens with any position (and any sport). You feel like your team needs that guy to be good, but most teams don't have that guy either. For instance, Patrick Sharp (and I didn't know this until I just looked it up) has that same 43 points and two fewer goals last year in 8 fewer games. That's playing on the top line on the Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks with a couple of the best players in the league. If you bump up that total for the same number of games, we're only talking about 47 or 48 points and the same 18 goals. There's no way anyone can say Patrick Sharp is a first-line player without admitting Drew Stafford is too based on scoring.

[Taro T]

You're right that Drew Stafford doesn't seem like a 1st line RW or top-3 guy, but in reality that's more about fan perception than the quality of the players. We see the truly great RWs (like Ovechkin and PKane (unless he's in jail)) and say, "that's what a top line RW looks like!" while in reality, that's what a top-5 RW looks like, most teams have someone closer to Stafford than those guys. I think it happens with any position (and any sport). You feel like your team needs that guy to be good, but most teams don't have that guy either. For instance, Patrick Sharp (and I didn't know this until I just looked it up) has that same 43 points and two fewer goals last year in 8 fewer games. That's playing on the top line on the Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks with a couple of the best players in the league. If you bump up that total for the same number of games, we're only talking about 47 or 48 points and the same 18 goals. There's no way anyone can say Patrick Sharp is a first-line player without admitting Drew Stafford is too based on scoring.

But again, except for the top 5-10 guys, there is a LOT more to it than just scoring. What Sharp gives you in addition to scoring is significantly more (or has been, he's starting to get up there in years) than what Stafford gives you. Stafford is a reasonable 2nd line guy and could even be one on a top team.

 

There is however, IMHO, NO f'n way he can be a 1st liner on a top team. And unfortunately, he was expected to be a top liner on this team which is completely out of his wheelhouse.

[Thorny]

But again, except for the top 5-10 guys, there is a LOT more to it than just scoring. What Sharp gives you in addition to scoring is significantly more (or has been, he's starting to get up there in years) than what Stafford gives you. Stafford is a reasonable 2nd line guy and could even be one on a top team.

 

There is however, IMHO, NO f'n way he can be a 1st liner on a top team. And unfortunately, he was expected to be a top liner on this team which is completely out of his wheelhouse.

 

This is what I was trying to say, and you said it in more succinct fashion. Reasonable second liner, not a 1st liner on a really good team. If he is your top line right wing, there is a good chance you may be fielding a middle of the pack to nearing the bottom of the pack team.

[MattPie]

This is what I was trying to say, and you said it in more succinct fashion. Reasonable second liner, not a 1st liner on a really good team. If he is your top line right wing, there is a good chance you may be fielding a middle of the pack to nearing the bottom of the pack team.

I think we're all kind of in agreement, Drew Stafford isn't a great or maybe even good 1st line RW, but he'd be in the mix for a lot of teams. If he can't make your 2nd line, you have a couple of pretty good RW already. He's not the right player for most 3rd lines, unless you're doing 3 lines of offense and 1 grinder line.

[Ducky]

The Winnipeg play-by-play guy was on Hockey Hotline the other day and said it was likely that Stafford would start the season on the top line, replacing Frolik. 

 

I'll say it again:  Stafford has all the physical tools but not the mental focus and edge needed to be a consistently effective player.  If Winnipeg needs him to hold down a top-line slot, they are in trouble.

Staffford playing on our first line? Fro playing on our first line? Just wondering if he said who Fro's linemates were on that 1st line? Fro played some LW as did Staf last year. Staf was putting up most points on a line with Scheifele and Wheeler (who at 61 points would be considered our 1RW) playing on the LW.

 

Frolik, Perrault and Stafford all played a couple of forward positions last year and Perrault played all 3 (as well as point on PP).

 

I see Staf as a 2RW for this year and a 2-3RW next year depending on players stepping up or not (like Ehlers and Armia). After that I am hoping we don't have to try to re-sign him as other players will push him out.

 

The line of Ladd-Little-Wheeler/Perrault/Frolik is generally considered to be the 1st line by most people around here.

 

This is what I think our line up will look like this year.

 

 

Ladd-          Little-           Wheeler

Perrault-     Scheifele-    Stafford

Ehlers-        Lowry-         Armia

Thorburn-    Copp -         Burmistrov-

 

Buff-                   Trouba

Enstrom-            Myers

Stuart/Chiarot-   Postma

(I think Morrissey will play a few games at the start of the season with the Jets on D but will be shipped down after a handful of games to be called back up for good around the all-star break.)

 

Pavelec and Hutchinson

[JJFIVEOH]

I think Stafford is going to surprise you guys this year.

[X. Benedict]

Stafford will be fine.

[LGR4GM]

I think Stafford is going to surprise you guys this year.

by only scoring 15g?  That might surprise them.  In all honesty Stafford probably has 1 season left where he could pump out in the mid 20g for goals and maybe 30a. But I wouldn't want to gamble on him doing that.  Also Stafford is not a strong 2 way player so really his offense is what you hope for.  I loved Drew because I thought he was a good guy and teammate but I am glad he plays somewhere else now. 

 

Stafford will be fine.

hehe

[Ducky]

Stafford's stats from 2015 are

 

18g   25a   for 43 points.

 

Since joining Jets are

9g   10a  for 19 points in 26 games.

 

I am happy with that from Staf.

[LGR4GM]

Stafford's stats from 2015 are

 

18g   25a   for 43 points.

 

Since joining Jets are

9g   10a  for 19 points in 26 games.

 

I am happy with that from Staf.

Go look at his shooting percentage for his time with the jets. Quite a bit above career average. That is unsustainable.

 

In a full 82 game season we can expect Drew to shoot about 194 shots.  That translates using his career SH% to 21.5 goals per year.  Of course that is for a full 82 game season.  Drew is turning 30 in October which mean he is 3-5 years past his peak scoring potential.  Also at 30 injuries become another question and considering Drew has never played a full 82 game season that is something to consider. Now looking at his actual shots per year and their slide, I would argue he should only have about 180 shots based off of a full season. I would guess he only plays 75 games meaning he should actually shoot 165 times at a career sh% of .111 which equals 18goals.  The chances of Drew producing again at the .161 sh% which he did in those 26 games with the Jets is very slim considering he has only managed to elevate his game to those levels once in his past and we have an entire thread discussing that anomaly. 

 

I think 15g, 25 maybe 30a depending on linemates is about right for Drew over 75 games.