Sabres Defense - Current Pairing Ideas and What Moves Should Adams Make to Enhance the Group

[GASabresIUFAN]

I sort of sidetracked the offseason game plan thread with a defensive discussion.  That discussion deserves it's own thread.

Right now the Sabres D group consists of Dahlin, Power, Byram, Clifton, Samuelsson and prospect Johnson who are all under contract.

Jokiharju, Clague and Bryson are RFAs.  Q offers for each are as follows: Jokiharju (2.6), Bryson (1.9) and Clague (.775)

With 6 players under contract, there isn't much that KA has to do this off-season.  

I was honestly surprised to learn when looking at Power's xGF earlier today how well most of the guys looked when playing with him.  (Thanks @thewookie1) Maybe there is more there than I suspected with just the eye test.  While I mentioned him as a possible trade piece, I do agree with @LGR4GM that odds favor all of Byram, Dahlin and Power in the lineup in the fall.  If that's the case, which of the other 5 guys (Clifton, Johnson, Samuelsson, Jokiharju and/or Bryson) do you want back, what would the pairings look like and what other moves would you make to improve a D group that as among the worst in the NHL last season in giving up HDCS and HDSA?

I worry that bringing back the same group would be a mistake.  This group needs at least one more good D first player, maybe two.  I'd like to see Dahlin, Power and Byram anchor their own pairing and try to spread the ice time more evenly.  I also want to see Byram on the PP.  I think he will bring more aggression to the PP, which it desperately needs.

 

Edited May 23 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorny]

Maybe a FA or something but we have what, 3 first overall picks or something on D? Lol if these guys can’t buoy the D unit I’d assume team building is an impossible pursuit. Trading our best F for a 2nd pair D is enough for me now, I’d spend more significant assets elsewhere on the roster. At F, even a competent vet backup goalie 

Samuelsson - Dahlin

Byram - Power

Clifton - Jokiharju

..the handedness situation is brutal but clearly their aim was stacking talent and there’s a ton of talent there 

The strength of the roster is Dahlin / Power. If we become good, dollars to donuts it flows through them and Levi. If these 2 first overall picks aren’t creating two lockdown, possession dominant pairs we are up the creek anyways. Having a 3rd overall pick there on pair two failsafes even further unless the Byram we’ve seen is Bowen in perpetuity 

Edited May 23 by Thorny

[Taro T]

51 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Maybe a FA or something but we have what, 3 first overall picks or something on D? Lol if these guys can’t buoy the D unit I’d assume team building is an impossible pursuit. Trading our best F for a 2nd pair D is enough for me now, I’d spend more significant assets elsewhere on the roster. At F, even a competent vet backup goalie 

Samuelsson - Dahlin

Byram - Power

Clifton - Jokiharju

..the handedness situation is brutal but clearly their aim was stacking talent and there’s a ton of talent there 

The strength of the roster is Dahlin / Power. If we become good, dollars to donuts it flows through them and Levi. If these 2 first overall picks aren’t creating two lockdown, possession dominant pairs we are up the creek anyways. Having a 3rd overall pick there on pair two failsafes even further unless the Byram we’ve seen is Bowen in perpetuity 

Expecting those are the 6 that start the year in the lineup with Johnson and Bryson the next 2 up (regardless of whether Johnson is watching or playing in the A; IMHO he's the 7).  And that's a pretty good guess at how they'll deploy.

But Adams seemed pretty adamant when Byram arrived that he was brought in to play with Dahlin.  And having a full off-season to get used to playing with him, would expect there's a 50/50 shot that's what they run with out of the gate.  Which then either bumps Samuelsson onto Power's pairing or slides him all the way down to Jokiharju's partner and Clifton now that he's more comfortable with knowing the tendencies of the other D here bumps up to 2nd pairing.

The wild card (wonder how he's doing btw) is putting Power and Dahlin together; letting Byram anchor the 2nd pairing probably with Muel while leaving Clifton and Jokiharju together on that 3rd pairing.  (Which could actually be a really good 3rd pairing.)

The other wild card is does Johnson force his way into the top 6 out of the gate?  Watching him play 2 on 1's in Ra-cha-cha, not expecting it; but wouldn't have money bet against him.

[PerreaultForever]

Power is the question mark for me. If he continues to play a soft passive game with offensive bursts the defensive side of things is in trouble. Too many offensive puck movers and not enough defenders. I think the D has a poor mix on it and Samuelsson has to stay healthy to have any hope at all. If Power steps up we might be fine. 

I'd prefer if we added a big shot blocking D first guy but I doubt it happens. I am interested to see how Ruff pairs people. We already know Dahlin can play right or left side so pretty much anything is possible. 

I'm really hoping that Ruff is going to start with a completely blank slate and come with new pairings (and new lines) and the best players will get the spots and that doesn't matter who they are or where they were drafted. 

[Thorny]

16 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Expecting those are the 6 that start the year in the lineup with Johnson and Bryson the next 2 up (regardless of whether Johnson is watching or playing in the A; IMHO he's the 7).  And that's a pretty good guess at how they'll deploy.

But Adams seemed pretty adamant when Byram arrived that he was brought in to play with Dahlin.  And having a full off-season to get used to playing with him, would expect there's a 50/50 shot that's what they run with out of the gate.  Which then either bumps Samuelsson onto Power's pairing or slides him all the way down to Jokiharju's partner and Clifton now that he's more comfortable with knowing the tendencies of the other D here bumps up to 2nd pairing.

The wild card (wonder how he's doing btw) is putting Power and Dahlin together; letting Byram anchor the 2nd pairing probably with Muel while leaving Clifton and Jokiharju together on that 3rd pairing.  (Which could actually be a really good 3rd pairing.)

The other wild card is does Johnson force his way into the top 6 out of the gate?  Watching him play 2 on 1's in Ra-cha-cha, not expecting it; but wouldn't have money bet against him.

Don’t really like Dahlin and Power on the same pair personally 

[Taro T]

17 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Don’t really like Dahlin and Power on the same pair personally 

Haven't been a fan of it via the eye test either.  But the data @thewookie1 put up indicate it might've been better than it seemed.  (Though a lot of the time they were together was w/ the EN which might explain why the CF% was so skewed in their direction.)

But, also, at some point, Power will actually mature and a lot of guys in their 3rd season tend to look a lot better.  (Though most of them aren't still only 21.)  IF Power starts to look like he's fully cooked, that pairing might look a lot better.

[bob_sauve28]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Power is the question mark for me. If he continues to play a soft passive game with offensive bursts the defensive side of things is in trouble. Too many offensive puck movers and not enough defenders. I think the D has a poor mix on it and Samuelsson has to stay healthy to have any hope at all. If Power steps up we might be fine. 

I'd prefer if we added a big shot blocking D first guy but I doubt it happens. I am interested to see how Ruff pairs people. We already know Dahlin can play right or left side so pretty much anything is possible. 

I'm really hoping that Ruff is going to start with a completely blank slate and come with new pairings (and new lines) and the best players will get the spots and that doesn't matter who they are or where they were drafted. 

Florida's Forsling isn't physical at all, but might be their best d-men. Power has got all the skills 

[Archie Lee]

Hopefully:

Dahlin and Power on the 1st pair.  Elite and similar to Heiskanen/Harley in Dallas. Samuelsson with either Joker or Clifton would be a fine 3rd pair. Sign Brendan Smith and he can be with Bryson on the 4th pair and serve as the 14th forward too (and fight a few guys). That leaves Joker or Clifton as the odd man out (likely Joker) as we need to get a veteran 2nd pairing partner for Byram. Hopefully we are in on DeMelo, Roy, Tanev, Pesce. Johnson can go to back to Rochester and get called up if/when there is an injury; he’s on deck if we can’t afford to keep Byram after next season. The Russians are in the hole for 2026-27. 

[Flashsabre]

I’d trade Joker and try to sign Roy.

Byram Dahlin

Power Roy

Muel Clifton

Johnson

Roy is a solid defensive dman that can be physical and PK. Would unlock Power to go offensively.

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Florida's Forsling isn't physical at all, but might be their best d-men. Power has got all the skills 

Ya but it's balanced.  Mikkola has been a beast in the playoffs. You need both types. 

[Ctaeth]

This is a bit of a non sequitur, but sometimes I forget that Samuelsson is on the team

[GoPuckYourself]

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I sort of sidetracked the offseason game plan thread with a defensive discussion.  That discussion deserves it's own thread.

Right now the Sabres D group consists of Dahlin, Power, Byram, Clifton, Samuelsson and prospect Johnson who are all under contract.

Jokiharju, Clague and Bryson are RFAs.  Q offers for each are as follows: Jokiharju (2.6), Bryson (1.9) and Clague (.775)

With 6 players under contract, there isn't much that KA has to do this off-season.  

I was honestly surprised to learn when looking at Power's xGF earlier today how well most of the guys looked when playing with him.  (Thanks @thewookie1) Maybe there is more there than I suspected with just the eye test.  While I mentioned him as a possible trade piece, I do agree with @LGR4GM that odds favor all of Byram, Dahlin and Power in the lineup in the fall.  If that's the case, which of the other 5 guys (Clifton, Johnson, Samuelsson, Jokiharju and/or Bryson) do you want back, what would the pairings look like and what other moves would you make to improve a D group that as among the worst in the NHL last season in giving up HDCS and HDSA?

I worry that bringing back the same group would be a mistake.  This group needs at least one more good D first player, maybe two.  I'd like to see Dahlin, Power and Byram anchor their own pairing and try to spread the ice time more evenly.  I also want to see Byram on the PP.  I think he will bring more aggression to the PP, which it desperately needs.

 

I'd have Pegula  do a full court press and fly that Jet for RHD Brett Pesce, I would deal Jokiharju with other pieces for a forward. Now you have:

Line 1- LHD Owen Power RHD Rasmus Dahlin

Line 2- LHD Bowen Byram RHD Brett Pesce

Line 3- LHD Mattias Samuelsson RHD Connor Clifton

Pretty solid defensive core with some ruggedness, skill etc.

 

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I'd have Pegula  do a full court press and fly that Jet for RHD Brett Pesce, I would deal Jokiharju with other pieces for a forward. Now you have:

Line 1- LHD Owen Power RHD Rasmus Dahlin

Line 2- LHD Bowen Byram RHD Brett Pesce

Line 3- LHD Mattias Samuelsson RHD Connor Clifton

Pretty solid defensive core with some ruggedness, skill etc.

 

This is great. Absolutely wonderful. Couldn't agree more except for one little thing. 

7.5 million for your bottom pairing D? 31 million plus whatever you pay Pesce for your 6 D (it would take like 8 million to get him to come to Buffalo). It's not really sustainable. 

[mjd1001]

8 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I'd have Pegula  do a full court press and fly that Jet for RHD Brett Pesce, I would deal Jokiharju with other pieces for a forward. Now you have:

Line 1- LHD Owen Power RHD Rasmus Dahlin

Line 2- LHD Bowen Byram RHD Brett Pesce

Line 3- LHD Mattias Samuelsson RHD Connor Clifton

Pretty solid defensive core with some ruggedness, skill etc.

 

I think reality might be a bit close to this, minus Pesce.

The top 4 here that are going to get the majority of the minutes will be Dahlin, Power, Bryam and Samuelsson.   Clifton will be on the third pair with 'whoever'.  And, I'm OK with that.

In the 2nd half of the season when the forwards 'started' to play better in their own end, the D looked a LOT better. Plus they are still young, they should still be getting better. I'm not all that upset with status quo on the D, as long as some changes are made to lines 2/3 up front.

[French Collection]

It’s interesting how there are complaints about the pairings having the same handedness.

It is a good thing Dahlin is versatile enough to play RHD which helps a lot. He and Mule were kind of switching sides quite a bit when paired together. Dahlin was roaming around and Mule would adjust accordingly. 
If Mule is in the top 4 then a possible third pairing is Clifton and Jokiharju, two RHD, creating a similar issue.

[Demoted]

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

This is great. Absolutely wonderful. Couldn't agree more except for one little thing. 

7.5 million for your bottom pairing D? 31 million plus whatever you pay Pesce for your 6 D (it would take like 8 million to get him to come to Buffalo). It's not really sustainable. 

It's sustainable for Buffalo b.c they are not doing it. It might not be sustainable for contending teams that actually spend money but this team isn't one of those.

[elijah]

Idk names well enough to throw out suggestions, but stop expecting 4/5 defensemen guys to be a suitable season long 4th defensemen. Jokiharju, Clifton, Samuelsson, etc., let them be bottom pairing guys and get someone that’s solidly been a second pairing defensemen to come in and be a second pairing defensemen 

Seems like we continuously rely on guys to come in and play their best game and play at their ceiling for us. It might work for the Boston’s, Tampa’s and Florida’s of the world, the teams that already have foundations in place but we don’t. We still need to lay that foundation. 

Dahlin Byram

Power XXX

Muel Clifton Joki RyJo

You’ve got the money and you’ve got the assets, go out and get someone proper for the role. Don’t worry about blocking people or having too much depth, too much depth doesn’t exist and if someone outplays their role you can worry about that down the road and trade someone to make space later. 

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I'd have Pegula  do a full court press and fly that Jet for RHD Brett Pesce, I would deal Jokiharju with other pieces for a forward. Now you have:

Line 1- LHD Owen Power RHD Rasmus Dahlin

Line 2- LHD Bowen Byram RHD Brett Pesce

Line 3- LHD Mattias Samuelsson RHD Connor Clifton

Pretty solid defensive core with some ruggedness, skill etc.

 

 

36 minutes ago, French Collection said:

It’s interesting how there are complaints about the pairings having the same handedness.

It is a good thing Dahlin is versatile enough to play RHD which helps a lot. He and Mule were kind of switching sides quite a bit when paired together. Dahlin was roaming around and Mule would adjust accordingly. 
If Mule is in the top 4 then a possible third pairing is Clifton and Jokiharju, two RHD, creating a similar issue.

Hold up. While I understand what is being said here, this is incorrect terminology. Rasmus Dahlin is a not a RHD, he is a LHD who can play on the right side. LHD and RHD denote how a player shoots, IE. they are left or right handed. So Dahlin playing on the right side with Power on the left looks like this

Power LHD - Dahlin LHD 

You don't change his handedness because he is on the right side, he is still a left handed defender, he isn't changing how he holds the stick. Sorry it is imprecise and bugs me. 

Edited May 24 by LGR4GM
spelling

[Archie Lee]

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

This is great. Absolutely wonderful. Couldn't agree more except for one little thing. 

7.5 million for your bottom pairing D? 31 million plus whatever you pay Pesce for your 6 D (it would take like 8 million to get him to come to Buffalo). It's not really sustainable. 

It is possible that the big UFA RD (Pesce, DeMelo, Roy, Tanev) just won't come to Buffalo.  If any would consider coming to Buffalo, and there is a Sabre tax to be paid, then the cost might be an extra year on the term as opposed to a higher AAV.  So, instead of Pesce at 6.25 x 5 years maybe it is 6.5 x 6 years.  Such a move is sustainable so long as they are willing to eventually move something else out.  This, to me, is why you have a good prospect pool. If you sign one of the UFA d-men, then in a year you might not be able to keep all of Byram, Samuelsson, Quinn or Peterka. So you then move one or two for a pick/prospect and promote Johnson, Kulich, Savoie or Rosen. 

If the team is successful, this will eventually happen regardless of whether you acquire higher end talent through free agency or trades. The upside of acquiring such talent through free agency is that you retain your prospects and can utilize their ELC's when you need to move a veteran out.  The downside of acquiring such talent through free agency is it will likely cost more in AAV and/or term.  In both cases, you are sacrificing a degree of flexibility in one area and keeping some flexibility in another.

Also, the thread title is "...what moves should Adams make..." not "what moves will Adams make...".  So the point, I think, is to live for now in a world where anything is possible.  

[LGR4GM]

Adams should make moves that put this team firmly in the playoffs, figure the cap out some other time. It is easy to move players as evident by what happens every summer and trade deadline. 

[Archie Lee]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Hold up. While I understand what is being said here, this is incorrect terminology. Rasmus Dahlin is a not a RHD, he is a LHD who can play on the right side. LHD and RHD denote how a player shoots, IE. they hare left or right handed. So Dahlin playing on the right side with Power on the left looks like this

Power LHD - Dahlin LHD 

You don't change his handedness because he is on the right side, he is still a left handed defender, he isn't changing on he holds the stick. Sorry it is imprecise and bugs me. 

The H is often dropped today and players are either LD or RD or LD/RD.  The distinction has little to do with what hand the player is and also doesn't attempt to address if they are good or bad at playing one or the other.  It simply means that they almost exclusively play one side, or they play both sides frequently enough that they can be labeled as playing both.  Dahlin and Power, in my view, are correctly noted as LD/RD as they play both sides and play both sides well (though, I'm sure the underlying numbers show that they are better at one side over the other).

 

[PASabreFan]

Already more thought put into the subject than KA will put into it all summer.

Again... The default position should be that there is no plan or process at work until proven otherwise.

Just stay young, stay (relatively cheap), sell hope, hope for the best and EEE.

 

Edited May 24 by PASabreFan

[LGR4GM]

32 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

The H is often dropped today and players are either LD or RD or LD/RD.  The distinction has little to do with what hand the player is and also doesn't attempt to address if they are good or bad at playing one or the other.  It simply means that they almost exclusively play one side, or they play both sides frequently enough that they can be labeled as playing both.  Dahlin and Power, in my view, are correctly noted as LD/RD as they play both sides and play both sides well (though, I'm sure the underlying numbers show that they are better at one side over the other).

 

What I quoted above does not and did not drop the H. 

Again it's not what RHD or LHD mean. 

27 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Already more thought put into the subject than KA will put into it all summer.

Again... The default position should be that there is no plan or process at work until proven otherwise.

Just stay young, stay (relatively cheap), sell hope, hope for the best and EEE.

 

This board has routinely put more thought into things over the years then an organization with ppl being paid to put thought into these things. 

[nfreeman]

51 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Already more thought put into the subject than KA will put into it all summer.

Again... The default position should be that there is no plan or process at work until proven otherwise.

Just stay young, stay (relatively cheap), sell hope, hope for the best and EEE.

 

 

https://memes.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/fa2dc3fe-7608-4f87-89dc-9a3de8eeccba/gif

[Flashsabre]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

What I quoted above does not and did not drop the H. 

Again it's not what RHD or LHD mean. 

This board has routinely put more thought into things over the years then an organization with ppl being paid to put thought into these things. 

On that note I find myself wondering what Sam Ventura and his dept are contributing to the building of this team. I haven’t seen a lot of moves that have pointed to strong analytics being involved atleast at the pro level. Is Adams not leaning on them as much? Be interesting to see how the summer plays out.