Shoot da Puck Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 You are so screwed. Glad I didn't loan you any money.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 4 hours ago, Marvin said: This is interesting. All 4 of the standard leading indicators for a recession went red from 2020-2022. But they are currently flat, which normally predates a recovery. And a lot of the usual other bad things that predate a recession have not happened. It is possible that there still will go into a recession, though. I am hoping for hiring to accelerate as interest rates fall. There are a couple factors driving this trend at my company. It should be temporary but in the short term they're laying off about 300 on the hourly side (I'm salaried). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabresVet Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 8 hours ago, RochesterExpat said: We laid a few engineers off earlier this week following layoffs at the end of last year. It's not fun at all. Seems a lot of companies overextended during the period of low interest rates and the expected returns never materialized. This is a consequence of that. I don't think people realize how much corporate debt is out there and at non-fixed interest rates. My company out-sourced a lot of IT overseas and let's just say those contractors are not high quality. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrenchConnection44 Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 17 hours ago, Marvin said: The consulting firm that I work for is doing a big round of IT layoffs. I am worried because I have been on the bench a while. I am lucky that I can work anywhere in the entire tech stack, so AI might survive this round. Sorry to hear this. I’ve been through similar twice in the last 12 years. It is tough. Will say a prayer. Wish you all the best. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shoot da Puck Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 19 hours ago, Marvin said: The consulting firm that I work for is doing a big round of IT layoffs. I am worried because I have been on the bench a while. I am lucky that I can work anywhere in the entire tech stack, so AI might survive this round. I was laid off probably 5 or 6 times and it gave me the chance to explore even better job opportunities. This might be a great thing, trust me, it happens Some of my old co workers never returned when offered their old job back. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 Good luck @Marvin. I hope you avoid the grim reaper. If not, I'm sure it won't be pleasant, but I will say that I know a number of very smart, very successful people who have been laid off. Sometimes it's unavoidable, but it usually works out for the best. Either way it sounds like you have very marketable skills. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LTS Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 20 hours ago, JohnC said: Thanks for your informed response. Does the new AI realm make the text sector more volatile and precarious for the workers or does it create a greater need for those workers? 19 hours ago, Marvin said: I found that one generative AI fell for traps that I laid for it with a sample project I had worked on a couple of years ago, so it currently can not replace IT reliably. It learned off of publicly available code, which tells me that there are a lot of companies using known inefficient or flawed algorithms because the programmer was unaware of the limits of the obvious, naive solution. On the other hand, having the AI write the tedious boilerplate code to get me started writing an API with a standardized project configuration and set-up was soooooooo cool. So if people are willing to think and be careful, then IT could see a big boom with coding with AI's help. But you just know that some companies will use AI as an excuse to cut their IT departments at some point, which could bite them HARD because the odds are that they won't think about the ramifications carefully. People don't realize that AI, as good as it can be, still operates with a data set that lags behind the content that is created everyday. I believe it is accurate up to 2022 right now. ChatGPT is a fantastic tool and those who learn to use it will save themselves a massive amount of time in their job. I am learning it more and more but still have not pulled the trigger on the subscription.. soon though. Will AI replace certain jobs? 100%. AI will replace jobs that had little value and consisted more of rote work without higher level thought. 18 hours ago, Marvin said: I am a generalist with more strength in middleware, primarily with Java, although I have some C# plus too many other languages to mention. I have been a DBA (Oracle, DB2, Ingres), SysAdmin, tech support, Full stack developer (my front-end experience is kind of old, though), QA, DevOps, team lead, substitute Scrum master, substitute project lead, with some predictive analytics to top it all off. Basically, tell me what you need and I will figure it out. You'll be fine as long as ageism doesn't hit you. Sadly it's a thing. 14 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said: My son is 16. I'd like for him to get into a trade and use the money I'd use for college to get him set up to work for himself. Unfortunately, the stigma of trades vs white collar has him wanting to go to university. Man.. I tried to get my kid to go this route but he had no interest. Frankly, not even just trade but get a full-time job and do college part time and avoid the debt. It's awful. Might be better outside of the US. I'm trying to now control my daughter on this as she's a year out. All of them thinking college is the key to success. I think it's the key to debt and being controlled by that debt. 10 hours ago, SabresVet said: I don't think people realize how much corporate debt is out there and at non-fixed interest rates. My company out-sourced a lot of IT overseas and let's just say those contractors are not high quality. Ugh.. don't even get me started. They are the people I can replace with AI. Because I have to define everything so specifically for them that I might as well just add it all into my prompt and have the AI write the code. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 @Marvin, Sorry to hear this news. I had been through it 3 or 4 times in my first 20 years after graduating college in 1986. Even after I got my CPA in 1995. Mostly when companies I worked for were sold. After that (till now) I spent 20 years working for myself. Still doing that with no realistic option for full retirement. There are advantages and disadvantages to working for yourself. It's rare that I hate my boss. Last tax season I took on a part-time gig with Intuit as a Tax Expert in their Full Service department - preparing and filing tax returns. Not glamourous, but I liked it and loved the variety and talking with many good people all across the country. The people I worked with (100% remote) are fantastic. I don't like huge corporations, but Intuit seems good. My Seasonal contract was extended until the end of August. I did like the steady paycheque every 2 weeks. It was nice to have it to help the seasonal ups and downs that come with any CPA working for themselves at a small practice. This fall I submitted my name for consideration and my Manager recommended me for a year-round part-time (I could work as many as 40 hours a week depending on my availablility and work load) senior position. I am thrilled that I was offered the position and eagarly accepted. My new role is in the Audit Defence department - we deal with CRA on behalf of Intuit clients who receive review letters from CRA. I like it a lot. I too am turning 60 this October so I understand your feelings. My hope is that you are not laid off. If you are hopefully there will be a nice severance package available to hold you over. My advice is to consider the route that I took. That said, I took that route at 40. Best wishes, my friend. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Believer Posted February 16 Report Share Posted February 16 22 hours ago, Marvin said: The consulting firm that I work for is doing a big round of IT layoffs. I am worried because I have been on the bench a while. I am lucky that I can work anywhere in the entire tech stack, so AI might survive this round. Stay strong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Marvin Posted February 19 Author Popular Post Report Share Posted February 19 I survived the big layoff, but I imagine just. Thank you all for your support. 9 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 (edited) 1 hour ago, Marvin said: I survived the big layoff, but I imagine just. Thank you all for your support. EDIT: I don't know what got me a thumbs-down, so I whole-heartedly say: I had no malicious intent and I'm sorry. Edited February 19 by MattPie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Night Train Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 On 2/15/2024 at 6:19 PM, JoeSchmoe said: My son is 16. I'd like for him to get into a trade and use the money I'd use for college to get him set up to work for himself. Unfortunately, the stigma of trades vs white collar has him wanting to go to university. My youngest daughter struggled in school but had a building skill. Tech school and now in the carpenters union. No debt. Skill trades are painfully short on talent. Do not ignore. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Posted February 19 Author Report Share Posted February 19 9 minutes ago, Night Train said: My youngest daughter struggled in school but had a building skill. Tech school and now in the carpenters union. No debt. Skill trades are painfully short on talent. Do not ignore. Skill trades make more than junior developers too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 The only tough part about the trades is being 50 and working outside on job site with 30 years of hard miles on the clock. Initially they make a lot of sense. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ducky Posted February 23 Report Share Posted February 23 I would tell any youngster around here to become a millwright. A 4 year apprenticeship and then you are making about 90k before OT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoPuckYourself Posted February 23 Report Share Posted February 23 I'm glad to hear you escaped the layoff Marvin. It happened to me when i was working for a GM supplier back in the day and then GM went through that government bailout. I was laidoff and the messed up part that kept bothering me is that I didn't do anything wrong plus i loved it there, the people were what made the job enjoyable to go into work every day and I never got that type knit group of coworkers like that job. Since that day I never stay stagnent in a job, if I'm as high as I can go or perceive I can go I move on to something else. I'm glad you made it though and wish you the best! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted February 23 Report Share Posted February 23 On 2/16/2024 at 9:29 AM, LTS said: Will AI replace certain jobs? 100%. AI will replace jobs that had little value and consisted more of rote work without higher level thought. You'll be fine as long as ageism doesn't hit you. Sadly it's a thing. Man.. I tried to get my kid to go this route but he had no interest. Frankly, not even just trade but get a full-time job and do college part time and avoid the debt. It's awful. Might be better outside of the US. I'm trying to now control my daughter on this as she's a year out. All of them thinking college is the key to success. I think it's the key to debt and being controlled by that debt. 1. Pretty arrogant to decide which jobs hold value and subsequently which ppl are valuable. Considering the rest of your post, it's contradictory at best. 2. I've seen more ageism in my life directed towards younger ppl than older. In fact millennials in particular are constantly ***** upon not only in work places but everywhere else. Keep in mind a generation that's more 27-45 is the most highly educated and productive in history according to most metrics I've seen. 3. So some jobs don't have value but you want to "control" your daughter what she can do, a wording you didn't use for your son. I'd say interesting but it follows a thread you have going. Don't do a job of low value, but also don't go to college because debt. So you're basically just left with a trade and those who don't are what? Less valuable? My issue here isnt your view on debt, you're right, college can trap you in debt. It's on jobs that less educated ppl typically do having no value. It's a form of elitism I see just about every where from... typically ppl over 55. At the same time you're basically saying college is a scam. So if you're less educated in a AI replaceable job, you shouldn't go to college unless you can pay up front, but also you don't have a job because yours wasn't valuable. Vicious cycle, it's why poverty isn't something you can just pull yourself out of magically. I don't disagree with everything you're saying, I'm just noting, using my crappy higher thinking millennial abilities, that you didn't address the far reaching ramifications. You probably want ppl to have a job, but if you're less educated, your job isn't valuable, but college incurs debt, so... what should these ppl do? What should a Buffalo kid from a poor SES background do? Sure trade school is one thing, but maybe they aren't interested or don't have the aptitude, should they go anyways? I'm just asking questions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Posted February 23 Report Share Posted February 23 47 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: what should these ppl do? What should a Buffalo kid from a poor SES background do? They could join the army. Liveable wage, great benefits, free college education, learn a trade. It's open to everyone. There's no excuse to live in poverty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted February 23 Report Share Posted February 23 On 2/19/2024 at 4:36 PM, Marvin said: Skill trades make more than junior developers too. I had a leak somewhere that was causing water spots on the ceiling below. I told the plumber that the wet ceiling was below my bathroom upstairs. He immediately went to the bathroom and directed his attention to the toilet. He tightened the bolt under the tank where there was a leak. He was finished in 15 minutes. It took him more time to write out the work order on his tablet than to diagnose the problem and fix it. The bill was for $316. I was happy to pay the bill because he fixed the problem if left unattended much longer would have cost me thousands of $$$$. The thing about trade workers is that they will always be needed and there is an inexhaustible demand for them. And there is no onerous college debt hanging over you. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted February 23 Report Share Posted February 23 4 minutes ago, Hank said: They could join the army. Liveable wage, great benefits, free college education, learn a trade. It's open to everyone. There's no excuse to live in poverty. Sure, but the path out of poverty is a lot more difficult for some. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Posted February 23 Report Share Posted February 23 1 minute ago, SwampD said: Sure, but the path out of poverty is a lot more difficult for some. No, it's really not. If I can get out of it, so can they. MOST enlisted personnel join to escape poverty. It's a way out if you want out bad enough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Posted February 23 Report Share Posted February 23 Another option would be job corps. Free room and board with a wide variety of trades, from welding to computer programming, truck driver to IT. Open to everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pimlach Posted February 23 Report Share Posted February 23 On 2/19/2024 at 3:26 PM, Night Train said: My youngest daughter struggled in school but had a building skill. Tech school and now in the carpenters union. No debt. Skill trades are painfully short on talent. Do not ignore. Agree with this. I don't get the stigma. Plumbers, Electricians, Building trades, Carpenters, etc. are always going to be needed. My three kids all went to college but the middle one went through the motions and never liked it and never pursued a career within his degree. They were sold a story in High School that you have to go to college to get anywhere. In the US the trades unions are still there. Pay is very good once you get past the first few years, benefits include medical and 401K matching, AND they still have pensions. Pensions are the holy grail of retirement. I know several tradesman, they worked hard, retired young (way before 65), and are set up nicely in retirement. The pay into their unions and were well represented compared to many who work for big corporations. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Night Train Posted February 23 Report Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, Hank said: Another option would be job corps. Free room and board with a wide variety of trades, from welding to computer programming, truck driver to IT. Open to everyone. That's exactly what my daughter did. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted February 23 Report Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, Hank said: No, it's really not. If I can get out of it, so can they. MOST enlisted personnel join to escape poverty. It's a way out if you want out bad enough. People who have to join the armed forces, instead of some other route, to escape poverty, re-enforces my statement. And I mean no offense. Some people choose to serve, some have no other option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.