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GDT: Lightning @ Sabres - Sat Jan 20, 2024, 12:30 pm ET MSG-B, BSSUN 📺 WGR 📻

Spoonman

By Spoonman
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Spoonman Second Liner

Spoonman

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Good Game Day Sabre Spacers, Matinee Hockey before heading out on their western swing...

 

image.png.e017c886eae55e9b6dc17f350f313716.png  @   image.png.85bd696f3009ac21ede1ade95264f11f.png

 

          23-17-5                                        20-21-4

                                     LAST 10

               6-4                                                        6-4 

     51 pts. / 45 gms.                              44 pts. / 45 gms.

 

  • Sabres currently sit 8th for either WC spot, with the Lightning currently in a WC spot. 
  • While the Sabres sit 7 pts. out of both WC spots, they still need to pass 6 teams (3 of 7 in front of Sabres have games in hand).

With a 10-0 win, Sabres can get back to .500 with an even goal differential on the season. 

Boys in Blue need to BOTTLE UP the Lightning today.

#MUST WIN

#LETS GO BUFFALO

Edited by Spoonman
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French Collection First Liner

French Collection

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All of the games are important, too bad they didn’t seem to play like that in the first half. They have dug quite the hole.

This game is a traditional 4 pointer vs a team they need to leapfrog at some point of the season in order to be relevant for a playoff spot.

I want to see TNT rise to the occasion and rediscover his game.

UPL with the continued solid play is important.

Dahlin and Quinn will have a good game imo.

Let’s go Buffalo!

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Sabres Fan in NS Hall of Famer

Sabres Fan in NS

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13:30 real time !!  Nice break in the day.  I am starting to work everyday again.  Damn !!  Someone remind me why I went for those blasted letters after my name.

Anyway ...

MUST WIN !!

GO SABRES !!

SWORDS !!

This will be a good test.

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JohnC First Liner

JohnC

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If the Sabres win this game, their homestand record will be 4-2. I would consider it a success even though I would have hoped for a loser point from one of the losses. If they lose, this team will be spinning its wheels and fall back. Not moving forward in the congested eastern conference means falling back. Although it is a cliche----this is a big game for us. 

Play hard/play simple/and shoot the freaking puck! 

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Archie Lee Fourth Liner

Archie Lee

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The path to playoff / wildcard contention is to get to real or DeLuca .500.  The teams that are ahead of us in the wildcard race are, respectively:

- 3 games above real .500 (New Jersey)

- 1 game above (Tampa, Detroit, Washington)

- Even (Pittsburgh)

- 7 games below (NYI and MTL)

We are currently 5 games below real .500.  With a win today we can get to 4 games below and accomplish step 1, which is getting back to NHL .500. 

Note that before our 9-2-1 finish last year, we were 33-31-6, or 4 games below real .500.  That is where we will be if we win today.  There is still enough runway if the team starts playing consistently good hockey.  

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PASabreFan Hall of Famer

PASabreFan

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27 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

The path to playoff / wildcard contention is to get to real or DeLuca .500.  The teams that are ahead of us in the wildcard race are, respectively:

- 3 games above real .500 (New Jersey)

- 1 game above (Tampa, Detroit, Washington)

- Even (Pittsburgh)

- 7 games below (NYI and MTL)

We are currently 5 games below real .500.  With a win today we can get to 4 games below and accomplish step 1, which is getting back to NHL .500. 

Note that before our 9-2-1 finish last year, we were 33-31-6, or 4 games below real .500.  That is where we will be if we win today.  There is still enough runway if the team starts playing consistently good hockey.  

WGR reports the Sabre have gained no ground during the mini hot streak. Consider the source I guess. But that's what the Sabres are up against.

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Mustache of God Second Liner

Mustache of God

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55 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

WGR reports the Sabre have gained no ground during the mini hot streak. Consider the source I guess. But that's what the Sabres are up against.

At least we haven't lost ground? Hopefully were in the midst of a 15 game win streak.

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SHAAAUGHT!!! Fourth Liner

SHAAAUGHT!!!

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1 hour ago, WhenWillItEnd66 said:

Notice how calm 6K looks in every one of those saves....

That is a great point and something I hadn’t noticed.  

Earlier in the season he looked like he was making so many extra unnecessary moves that caused him to react late to the actual shot…

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LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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51 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Those are studly numbers right there.

The last 2 are pretty fancy and I don't care about them, or at least don't know what I am looking at.  The first 3 are clear enough for me.

You are familiar with sh% then. For example if TNT has a sh% of 15 that means on every 100 shots he takes we expect him to get 15 goals. Sh% is a function of Goals/Shots. For GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) instead of applying sh% to a player, it gets applied to type of shot + location on ice where shot is taken. Instead of TNT having a sh% of 15, Wrist Shot from the Right Circle has a Sh% of say 10%. That is every wrister from that spot on the ice across the league. You then take the decimal for that (0.1) and over the course of a game, you add that up. So if there are 10 wrist shots taken from the right circle, that would be 10x0.1 and get you 1 goal. If your goalie saves all those shots, they would have 1 goal saved above expected because we expected 1 goal out of those 10 shots. 

Basically you are replacing a players sh% with a % that is (Type of Shot + Location) and then using the decimal point to cumulatively count up the value of those shots. League wide shots on average shots are usually worth like 0.1 goals per shot taken (roughly) so over the course of a game where a team shoots 30 times, you end up with 3 goals on average. If your goalie allows fewer than 3 goals, that gets subtracted so they saved say 1goal above expected. I am using simple math here because usually you see an GSAx at like 3.27 or something like that. 

Hope that helps. Just think of Shot Type + Location as a player and apply sh% to that, then add that up over the course of a game. There are more complicated GSAx formulas but they all basically have this underlying them. Some take into account individual players taking the shot or shot speed, or pre shot movement etc... but they still look at Location and Shot Type. 

Edited by LGR4GM
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