Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[Pimlach]

5 hours ago, JohnC said:

No. I use the cheap stuff on my sandwiches. 🤡

When in Buffalo you use Weber’s.   

[JohnC]

7 hours ago, Pimlach said:

When in Buffalo you use Weber’s.   

Nope! I'm an incontrovertible cheapskate. GO Generic is my mantra.🤡

[JohnC]

8 hours ago, Andrew Amerk said:

That’s sad.

The right condiments can REALLY elevate a sandwich, and they usually ain’t the cheap ones. 

Pepperidge Farms remembers. 

The sandwiches I eat can't be elevated. When you slobber the condiments on they can't be distinguished. It's called the concept of "quantity over quality". 

Pepperidge Farms can not remember me because I was never a member of that lofty community. I come from the peasant class. It is a class that  I have never been able to lift away from because I have no desire to leave. 

Edited February 18, 2023 by JohnC

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

The sandwiches I eat can't be elevated. When you slobber the condiments on they can't be distinguished. It's called the concept of "quantity over quality". 

Pepperidge Farms can not remember me because I was never a member of that lofty community. I come from the peasant class. It is a class that  I have never been able to lift away from because I have no desire to leave. 

Treat yourself to Buffalo’s own  

 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

The best ...

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

If we want to make the playoffs, we have to play much better than we did on this road trip despite winning the last 2.  The next 4 games will tell who the Sabres are and if we really are a playoff contender.  

The next 4 are Tor, at TB, at Fla and then Wash.  Find a way to win 3 of 4 and I’d say we’re a playoff caliber team. 

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If we want to make the playoffs, we have to play much better than we did on this road trip despite winning the last 2.  The next 4 games will tell who the Sabres are and if we really are a playoff contender.  

The next 4 are Tor, at TB, at Fla and then Wash.  Find a way to win 3 of 4 and I’d say we’re a playoff caliber team. 

We’ve seen a lot of this team now, don’t think I’d be boiling anything down to the next small 4 game stretch ie “this stretch will tell us.” Short of losing all 4 we could make the playoffs regardless and we could win all 4 and miss easily. 

What are we at, 28 games left? We should be in-and-around it the rest of the way. We’re firmly a “bubble” team and the connotation that implies 

[GASabresIUFAN]

54 minutes ago, Thorny said:

We’ve seen a lot of this team now, don’t think I’d be boiling anything down to the next small 4 game stretch ie “this stretch will tell us.” Short of losing all 4 we could make the playoffs regardless and we could win all 4 and miss easily. 

What are we at, 28 games left? We should be in-and-around it the rest of the way. We’re firmly a “bubble” team and the connotation that implies 

Unfortunately for us, we have a brutal remaining schedule.  We paly 13 games against divisional top 3 teams and 10 games against teams fighting for a Wild Card slot.  Only 5 of our remaining games are against "bad" teams.  I would say that these next 4 games are pretty representative of the remaining schedule and represent 4 of the last 5 games before the deadline.  How we play against this stiff competition will go along away toward helping KA decide how to act at the deadline.

[Thorny]

Through 54 games: 

20th in record

17th in points %

13th in goal differential

 

..Reasonably solid. The goal differential imo proves the points % mark full value, meaning that as long as we’re treading water re: joining the upper echelon 10 or so teams, we should have no problem holding our own with (and coming out near the top / in the upper tier) of the rest 

It’s a very solid base that Adams and his team has constructed, let’s call it a Floor. Most impressive. 

Should be a fun fight to see where it all shakes out from here, and it’ll be pretty unpredictable beyond establishing as a mainstay playoff team, which I do THINK we are headed for 

Edited February 19, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorny]

27 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Unfortunately for us, we have a brutal remaining schedule.  We paly 13 games against divisional top 3 teams and 10 games against teams fighting for a Wild Card slot.  Only 5 of our remaining games are against "bad" teams.  I would say that these next 4 games are pretty representative of the remaining schedule and represent 4 of the last 5 games before the deadline.  How we play against this stiff competition will go along away toward helping KA decide how to act at the deadline.

Just b/c they are representative of the level of competition going forward doesn’t mean they’ll provide more determinative value than the other 58. A much larger sample size. EVERY game is more less representative of the competition going forward - the league is full of parity.

I truly do not believe record is as big of a factor as timing - it’s *when* you play a team that matters more, we’ve seen it so many times. Aside from the very top, and very bottom, it’s a league of ups and downs and swings and momentum, over a marathon 82. 

The overall record is the most valuable in the macro, it‘s the most representative of what to expect moving forward as it provides the most balanced data and we are projecting over a long period of time. But when it comes to an individual game it’s way more about the Micro - we aren’t playing “what they’ve amounted to over 58 games”, we are literally only playing the team in front of us THAT day, inclusive of their current, day to day Mojo.

i have no issues with a schedule full of teams like Toronto already locked into their playoff matchup playing for almost nothing. And I welcome the games against those we are fighting against - I call those stress free: if we can’t beat the teams closest to us, we have no right being in it anyways. 

- - - 

I should add as an addendum: I think the aspect of the remaining schedule most likely to present the stiffest challenge is the compressed nature of it: competition isn’t a concern for me at all, but sometimes you see teams that have games in hand struggle in attempting to bank those points in part because, the fact they are making up so many games results in an overloaded schedule. If anything fatigue works against them: being the youngest team in league should aid on that front. 

Edited February 19, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorny]

I’m about 18 games from sitting back and putting my feet up. If, a mere 18 games from today, we are sitting, hypothetically, in the same relative position:

I‘m hanging a banner.

Shoot me: I don’t care. That’s called meaningful games in March. It’s a playoff chase.

It’d be the first 82-game season in a f*cking age that was......*actually 82 games* as an entertainment product.

Who knows how expectations change or don’t moving forward but for the time being, I’d be pretty damn satisfied to realize I wasn’t completely full of sh*t for the last decade in saying I just wanted an NHL hockey team back - that’s it. It’s been way too long. Don’t worry Sabres, we kept the lights on for ya.

I missed you dearly.

Edited February 19, 2023 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Just b/c they are representative of the level of competition going forward doesn’t mean they’ll provide more determinative value than the other 58. A much larger sample size. EVERY game is more less representative of the competition going forward - the league is full of parity.

I truly do not believe record is as big of a factor as timing - it’s *when* you play a team that matters more, we’ve seen it so many times. Aside from the very top, and very bottom, it’s a league of ups and downs and swings and momentum, over a marathon 82. 

The overall record is the most valuable in the macro, it‘s the most representative of what to expect moving forward as it provides the most balanced data and we are projecting over a long period of time. But when it comes to an individual game it’s way more about the Micro - we aren’t playing “what they’ve amounted to over 58 games”, we are literally only playing the team in front of us THAT day, inclusive of their current, day to day Mojo.

i have no issues with a schedule full of teams like Toronto already locked into their playoff matchup playing for almost nothing. And I welcome the games against those we are fighting against - I call those stress free: if we can’t beat the teams closest to us, we have no right being in it anyways. 

- - - 

I should add as an addendum: I think the aspect of the remaining schedule most likely to present the stiffest challenge is the compressed nature of it: competition isn’t a concern for me at all, but sometimes you see teams that have games in hand struggle in attempting to bank those points in part because, the fact they are making up so many games results in an overloaded schedule. If anything fatigue works against them: being the youngest team in league should aid on that front. 

As I always say in college football, you gotta win the games you play. 

Buffalo needs to find ways to win. 

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Unfortunately for us, we have a brutal remaining schedule.  We paly 13 games against divisional top 3 teams and 10 games against teams fighting for a Wild Card slot.  Only 5 of our remaining games are against "bad" teams.  I would say that these next 4 games are pretty representative of the remaining schedule and represent 4 of the last 5 games before the deadline.  How we play against this stiff competition will go along away toward helping KA decide how to act at the deadline.

We don't do things because they are easy, but because they are hard. - Kennedy

[Marvin]

I just looked at the rest of our schedule.  We end the year with an old fashioned 4 games in 5 nights, where our playoff lives might be on the line.

[Thorny]

26 minutes ago, Marvin said:

I just looked at the rest of our schedule.  We end the year with an old fashioned 4 games in 5 nights, where our playoff lives might be on the line.

[North Buffalo]

going to the Ranger game in April at MSG... ps weird sched 4 games against them 3 at MSG

[Night Train]

Regardless, this team is the most entertaining Sabres squad in years.

Meaningful games were a distant memory and have now returned.  I get the tough finishing schedule and will just observe the progress. The arrow is pointing up and I hope to be around to see something good in the future. 

[matter2003]

Sabres in a great spot...5 games in hand on Islanders for last playoff spot and only 3 points behind. 4 games in hand on the Caps and only 2 points behind.

Could easily be 4 points clear on a playoff spot once those games are made up.

[Pimlach]

On 2/18/2023 at 9:08 AM, Sabres Fan in NS said:

The best ...

 

The best TV commercials maybe. 

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Unfortunately for us, we have a brutal remaining schedule.  We paly 13 games against divisional top 3 teams and 10 games against teams fighting for a Wild Card slot.  Only 5 of our remaining games are against "bad" teams.  I would say that these next 4 games are pretty representative of the remaining schedule and represent 4 of the last 5 games before the deadline.  How we play against this stiff competition will go along away toward helping KA decide how to act at the deadline.

Which is fine.  The Sabres are pretty much done w/ the Western Conference.  So, they should as a percentage of remaining "top 3 teams" be playing 11 of their 28 remaining games against them.  They play 13 by your count.  Big whoop.

There are only 2 truly out of it teams in the east & ~5 league wide, so the Sabres should play 3 or 4 against them and by your count they get 5.  So they net out with 1 extra "hard" game over what the percentages say they should have.

And they should have 13 against teams in the same boat as they're in, but they only get 10.  Again, big whoop.

They've got essentially the remaining schedule they should.  If they can't outplay the other mediocre teams, then they don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

If they play NHL 0.600 from here on out, they'll have 94 points.  So, they probably need to find a way to convert 2 extra regulation losses into W's and 1 loser point game into a W beyond the 0.600 to guarantee a playoff spot.  But everybody else needs to be playing at that rate too, & NONE of them have to date.  The Sabres are in better shape than everybody else they're fighting for a WC with because they're closest to an NHL 0.600 at present.

Agree w/ @Thorny, these next 4 games won't show us anything 54 games haven't already shown us.  (But the bipolarity here that will come with every W & L will likely be worth the price of admission. 😉 )

[French Collection]

Loser points will help in this pursuit.

They have some games against good teams that they are not battling with a WC spot with.

[Taro T]

Just now, French Collection said:

Loser points will help in this pursuit.

They have some games against good teams that they are not battling with a WC spot with.

Wins will help more.  😉

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Which is fine.  The Sabres are pretty much done w/ the Western Conference.  So, they should as a percentage of remaining "top 3 teams" be playing 11 of their 28 remaining games against them.  They play 13 by your count.  Big whoop.

There are only 2 truly out of it teams in the east & ~5 league wide, so the Sabres should play 3 or 4 against them and by your count they get 5.  So they net out with 1 extra "hard" game over what the percentages say they should have.

And they should have 13 against teams in the same boat as they're in, but they only get 10.  Again, big whoop.

They've got essentially the remaining schedule they should.  If they can't outplay the other mediocre teams, then they don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

If they play NHL 0.600 from here on out, they'll have 94 points.  So, they probably need to find a way to convert 2 extra regulation losses into W's and 1 loser point game into a W beyond the 0.600 to guarantee a playoff spot.  But everybody else needs to be playing at that rate too, & NONE of them have to date.  The Sabres are in better shape than everybody else they're fighting for a WC with because they're closest to an NHL 0.600 at present.

Agree w/ @Thorny, these next 4 games won't show us anything 54 games haven't already shown us.  (But the bipolarity here that will come with every W & L will likely be worth the price of admission. 😉 )

Here is the biggest issue.  As you say we are done with the West for the most part.  Did you know that 5 of 6 wins against top 3 divisional teams are against Western Conference teams?  We have one win this season against an Eastern playoff team and that was an OT win against Boston.  We have yet to beat Car, Tor, TB, NYR, or NJ.  

Even if we play to the same level against our competition that we have played to all year, we'll finish out of the playoffs with 89 points.  We are 6-12-1 against playoff teams, 11-6-2 against bubble teams, and 11-4-1 against the bad teams.   

My point still stands.  We have to play better against better competition in order to make the playoffs and we honestly don't have the defense or goaltending to do it.   If KA is serious about the playoffs this year, he can no longer sit on his hands.  He must get D help now.  Also it wouldn't hurt if DG can find away to get the PP working again.

[DarthEbriate]

I think this team can make the playoffs, but there are three things I need to see that will tell me they will make the playoffs:

1) Only one bad period every few games. They can't get outshot 20-4 through the first 30 minutes of a game. It's permissible to get outshot 12-4 in a period, just start the next period well. We can't be yelling "Wake up!" on Sabrespace every other game. This is the way.
2) Beat the competition. Win the majority of remaining games vs. NYI, WSH, and DET. (And FLA, see 3). This is a distinct possibility.
3) Do something, anything, against the teams from Florida. 4 games left vs. TB and FLA. Get points versus these teams. This is the uncertainty.

[French Collection]

8 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Wins will help more.  😉

For sure. I’m just saying that getting a loser point versus Tampa is OK.

As much as I hate the Leafs, their fans more than the team, I want the Sabres to beat the Panthers in this stretch. They just had that swagger the last few games like the Sabres are a pushover. They also need to beat a team they are battling with for the WC spot.

Florida runs out of games if they lose a few, the Sabres can put a dagger in their hearts.

[JohnC]

The Sabres have put themselves in a position where they control their own destiny. Finishing out it's certainly going to be challenging. As others have said, we will for the most part be playing quality teams with more robust rosters. That's exactly where we wanted to be before the season even started! We wanted to be in the playoff hunt right up until the season concluded. Assuming there won't be a collapse, that's exactly where we are now. I'm hoping that the Sabres make the playoffs. But if they don't, this rigorous playoff run will help in the development of our many young players. Talking about playing under pressure has little to do with actually playing under pressure. Whatever the outcome it will help to make this a better team now and in the near future.