Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[elijah]

Wasn’t it Mike Harrington a week ago or so that was saying that tickets were too inexpensive and fans didn’t have a right to complain, and now he’s saying tickets shouldn’t be rising?

Or do I have the wrong guy?

[Weave]

20 minutes ago, elijah said:

Wasn’t it Mike Harrington a week ago or so that was saying that tickets were too inexpensive and fans didn’t have a right to complain, and now he’s saying tickets shouldn’t be rising?

Or do I have the wrong guy?

I have no idea if you have the wrong guy, but what you are stating are two separate issues.  I don’t think it is unfair to complain about ticket prices varying from day to day.

[Grinder]

On 1/30/2023 at 8:17 AM, PromoTheRobot said:

Now all we need is for Sabres fans to show up. Still 5K tickets left for Wednesday. Sadly, none are the $6 StubHub specials some fans rely on.

I’ve read this statement from many posters this year, here and on other boards. I’m always curious as to whether the people posting it are showing up themselves. 
I’ve been to 6 games this year. It’s been equally divided between a full arena/close to full and 1,000s of empty seats.

 The cost of going to games as a single man with no kids is high, let alone trying to bring a family of 4. I will say that as the season has progressed, and the Sabres are showing they care, and will put in the effort to win every night, the fans are noticing. 

I have full faith that this will continue. This team is different, and the word is starting to get out. I can’t *****in wait to be in the arena for the first playoff game this year!

[Doohickie]

I've been to precisely 1 game this year.  Just like most years.  The game in Dallas.  This year I met @Redneck there.

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, Grinder said:

I’ve read this statement from many posters this year, here and on other boards. I’m always curious as to whether the people posting it are showing up themselves. 
I’ve been to 6 games this year. It’s been equally divided between a full arena/close to full and 1,000s of empty seats.

 The cost of going to games as a single man with no kids is high, let alone trying to bring a family of 4. I will say that as the season has progressed, and the Sabres are showing they care, and will put in the effort to win every night, the fans are noticing. 

I have full faith that this will continue. This team is different, and the word is starting to get out. I can’t *****in wait to be in the arena for the first playoff game this year!

Major league sports tickets are all expensive, even more outside of Buffalo. I have seasons but I live 500 miles away. Still I've gotten to 4 games so far and will do more later this year. I also share with friends and family, but sell the rest. I also see the Sabres on the road occasionally.

Edited January 31, 2023 by PromoTheRobot

[Thorny]

It’ll be interesting, and it’ll be tough. 

We no longer sit top 8 by points % either. The Islanders and Panthers aren’t going to go away, 1 point and 2 points behind, respectively. Even Detroit, they’ve got a better points % than Florida, 2 points back of us if Detroit wins the 2 they have in hand on us. Don’t get to our first bit of breathing room until the 5 point gap we have on Ottawa. 

So we’ll have to fend off every one of the Islanders, Wings, and Panthers, and find a way to real in one of Pens and Caps. Have to find a way to beat 4 of those 5 teams. 

If the Sabres continue to play at the rate they have, they’ll have a good shot at it if we can avoid a slump and put together at least one surplus positive streak above our normal rate.

Assuming we do put together a winning streak, we can afford one of Pittsburgh or Washington getting really hot, on a streak of their own, and probably withstand a charge from the Islanders/Wings/Panthers, if they go on heaters. If both Washington and Pens get hot, probably looks unlikely for us regardless of what we do. 

If the Sabres don’t put together a little streak at all, catching Pens or Caps will just be straight difficult, full stop. If even one of the 5 teams we’re up against goes on a heater we are probably out of luck, especially if it’s one currently below us but very close. 

Basically, I think we’ll need to not only keep up our current pace, but add in a hot streak to make it, but if we do so, we’ll be coming in in a really good position, playing well. One or more team is heating up down the stretch, we gotta find a way to be that team.

[PromoTheRobot]

https://theathletic.com/4157763/2023/02/06/nhl-playoff-picture-eastern-conference-all-star-break?source=user-shared-article

Sorry about the paywall.

 

Dom Luszczyszyn at the Atlantic called the Sabres a 14% long shot to make the playoffs. Pens (77%)Caps (54%) Panthers (46%) and Isles (19%) all given better odds.

Five other sources have Buffalo as an “unlikely bet” rather than a “long shot,” so we’re on an island here. I already went over why Buffalo is so unlikely in the last edition of 16 Stats, but the gist is the team has a tough schedule and the model isn’t sold quite yet after 50 games of strong play. The team is scoring well above expectations at the moment and the model does expect that to regress. If it does, the Sabres don’t quite have the defense or goaltending to make up the difference. 

 

This is based on the Athletic's predictive model as well as the predictions of 5 other hockey sites. Dom's take is the least optimistic of the six. Of course Dom predicted a second from last 77 pt season at the start of the year so he's not going to veer from that.

 

We'll just have to do what we've done since Granato took over: prove them wrong.

[Eleven]

The March schedule is brutal.

[LGR4GM]

37 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

https://theathletic.com/4157763/2023/02/06/nhl-playoff-picture-eastern-conference-all-star-break?source=user-shared-article

Sorry about the paywall.

 

Dom Luszczyszyn at the Atlantic called the Sabres a 14% long shot to make the playoffs. Pens (77%)Caps (54%) Panthers (46%) and Isles (19%) all given better odds.

Five other sources have Buffalo as an “unlikely bet” rather than a “long shot,” so we’re on an island here. I already went over why Buffalo is so unlikely in the last edition of 16 Stats, but the gist is the team has a tough schedule and the model isn’t sold quite yet after 50 games of strong play. The team is scoring well above expectations at the moment and the model does expect that to regress. If it does, the Sabres don’t quite have the defense or goaltending to make up the difference. 

 

This is based on the Athletic's predictive model as well as the predictions of 5 other hockey sites. Dom's take is the least optimistic of the six. Of course Dom predicted a second from last 77 pt season at the start of the year so he's not going to veer from that.

 

We'll just have to do what we've done since Granato took over: prove them wrong.

I looked at this and honestly it smells of Roldemort bias where the fact we had the anti-coach for 2 years is still being used to impact predictions. Couple that with the fact UFA additions to teams are over inflated in the model where internal additions are given far less impact and we get a model that says the Redwings are better. Of course the model also projected Tage to regress (which is what it says about the xgf) which didn't happen. 

I am glad we are still the underdog. Let's be underdogs and either win or lose. 

[Thorny]

9 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

https://theathletic.com/4157763/2023/02/06/nhl-playoff-picture-eastern-conference-all-star-break?source=user-shared-article

Sorry about the paywall.

 

Dom Luszczyszyn at the Atlantic called the Sabres a 14% long shot to make the playoffs. Pens (77%)Caps (54%) Panthers (46%) and Isles (19%) all given better odds.

Five other sources have Buffalo as an “unlikely bet” rather than a “long shot,” so we’re on an island here. I already went over why Buffalo is so unlikely in the last edition of 16 Stats, but the gist is the team has a tough schedule and the model isn’t sold quite yet after 50 games of strong play. The team is scoring well above expectations at the moment and the model does expect that to regress. If it does, the Sabres don’t quite have the defense or goaltending to make up the difference. 

 

This is based on the Athletic's predictive model as well as the predictions of 5 other hockey sites. Dom's take is the least optimistic of the six. Of course Dom predicted a second from last 77 pt season at the start of the year so he's not going to veer from that.

 

We'll just have to do what we've done since Granato took over: prove them wrong.

So all 6 had Buffalo missing? 

- - -
Oh sportsclubstats isn’t operational for hockey anymore? Bummer 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Thorny

[Gatorman0519]

We’d need at least 40 points out if the renaming 64 (I think I did the math right).  Probably 96-97 grabs the last spot. That’s a tall order. 

[Derrico]

On 2/6/2023 at 6:49 PM, Thorny said:

So all 6 had Buffalo missing? 

- - -
Oh sportsclubstats isn’t operational for hockey anymore? Bummer 

I know!  I went to check out sports club stats the other day for first time in maybe 5 years and also disappointed to see it’s not tracking nhl 

[Doohickie]

7 hours ago, Gatorman0519 said:

We’d need at least 40 points out if the renaming 64 (I think I did the math right).  Probably 96-97 grabs the last spot. That’s a tall order. 

Math seems okay, spelling.... not so much 😉

[PASabreFan]

The two worst words in the lexicon of hockey: games in hand.

[Sabel79]

33 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

The two worst words in the lexicon of hockey: games in hand.

[PASabreFan]

2 hours ago, Sabel79 said:

You know damned well I worked in a hog butchery for 37 years. Not funny.

[Doohickie]

18 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

You know damned well I worked in a hog butchery for 37 years. Not funny.

"And this little piggy is.... well, he's just not there anymore, is he?"

I'm not going to get excited either way about what other teams are doing right now.  I just want to see the Sabres come out of their bye week and put up some points of their own.  If they do that they'll make the playoffs.

[Gatorman0519]

5 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Math seems okay, spelling.... not so much 😉

meh... that is the wonderful world of technology when spellcheck takes over when you are typing on a phone lol. 

[Archie Lee]

It is still too early to scoreboard watch (though, I will nightly). The Sabres have 42 points in 32 games since the 8 game losing streak. Interestingly, in the 32 games that preceded the losing streak (including the final 22 games of last season), they had 41 points. The Sabres have 32 games remaining. If they can repeat what they did in the 32 games pre and post 8 game losing streak, they should get in. It won’t be easy though. 
 

 

[Thorny]

9 hours ago, Derrico said:

I know!  I went to check out sports club stats the other day for first time in maybe 5 years and also disappointed to see it’s not tracking nhl 

Took me a while to understand why Buffalo was listed at 0% lol 

7 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

The two worst words in the lexicon of hockey: games in hand.

It’s this or “pregame ceremony” 

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

It’s this or “pregame ceremony” 

For the road team, sure. But the Sabres nailed RJ night and Miller night. 

[BullBuchanan]

On 1/31/2023 at 11:43 AM, Grinder said:

The cost of going to games as a single man with no kids is high, let alone trying to bring a family of 4. I will say that as the season has progressed, and the Sabres are showing they care, and will put in the effort to win every night, the fans are noticing.

I'm pretty sure the only people bringing families of 4 to major league sporting events are those that don't care about the price of the tickets because they don't have to or super special occasions. These days, live sports are an activity for upper-middle class and above folks with disposable income or 20 somethings who make poor financial decisions.

Edited February 9, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[Doohickie]

I've been thinking about it and... it doesn't bother me that teams in the pack around the Sabres are winning their share of games.  I think it will motivate the Sabres to scratch and claw for every point.  I don't want them to feel too cocky.

 

 

 

Yet.

[PickaPecaPickles]

It appears the Panthers have gone into playoff mode.

It'll be interesting to see how the Sabres handle being in this race.

[Pimlach]

On 2/8/2023 at 7:07 PM, BullBuchanan said:

I'm pretty sure the only people bringing families of 4 to major league sporting events are those that don't care about the price of the tickets because they don't have to or super special occasions. These days, livme sports are an activity for upper-middle class and above folks with disposable income or 20 somethings who make poor financial decisions.

Gotta love these these blanket statements.   My 20 something sons and nephews go all the time and they are quite capable of making good financial decisions.  Their friends are the same.  The younger generation, as a group, is pretty bright from my perspective.  Those 20 something’s that you see at the game are probably making much more money than you think.