Jump to content

When is the Time to Trade Girgensens?


JoeSchmoe
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

So Girgs is slightly above average in terms of points, and it the 2nd out of 4 quarters (2nd highest)

He's a good guy and always worked really hard even in years when the rest of the team wasn't. 

But to be a cup contender, we're going to need better than 45th percentile guys on our 4th line given our lack of elite 1st line talent. I'd say we want top 20% at least on lines 2 through 4, since I don't see the 1st line getting much better than the 30-40th percentile.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My answer is after he proves himself a playoff warrior and some team thinks he's the key to a deep run and worth a 2nd round pick. The earliest is 3-4 more years. Even better, he retires after lifting the Cup in Buffalo as the first guy to touch the Cup after the captain. (unless Okposo is still with on the roster and not wearing the C himself... because then he's 1st after the captain.)

In the meantime, Girgensons is built for the playoffs. He's not called the Locomotive for nothing. He'll take the hits that free up VO and Quinn and Power and Thompson, he'll make the hits so they won't have to and wear themselves out when the second season takes over. Every playoff team needs 3 or 4 Girgensons. You trade them after they've made deep runs and you have the next wave of them (or can entice players like them on minimum contracts because you're true contenders).

Edited by DarthEbriate
  • Like (+1) 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

You're missing the point.

We have no MacKinnon.

We have no Rantanen or Kadri.

We haven't a Kucherov or Stamkos either.

What we lack on our 1st line needs to be made up further down the lineup. Girgs level production on the 4th line will not win us a championship.

I'll add to the above by saying neither team referenced could afford to do any better on the 4th line. 

 

You are right.  The Sabres don't have those players, yet. But the point being that teams win with solid top 9 and a producing 4th line.  It's not a situation where all 4 lines are so good that someone like Girgensons doesn't have a place. The Sabres need a jump in offense (and better goaltending). If the likes of Thompson (.87), Skinner (.79), Tuch (.76), Olofsson (.68), Quinn, and Peterka can elevate the offense there's no reason to believe they don't have room on the 4th line.

I've outlined the Avs from last year.  I'll look at past Champs with forwards contributing higher than 55 GP (or if I can recall a significant trade deadline) who had .40 PPG or less.

  • 2021 - Lightning (interestingly had 0 players at a PPG or higher)
    • Pat Maroon - .33
    • Mathieu Joseph - .34
    • Barclay Goodrow - .36
  • 2020 - Lightning (4 players above or about a PPG; Point was .97)
    • Pat Maroon - .36
    • Cedric Paquette - .30
  • 2019 - Blues (zero players above PPG; O'Reilly was .94; majority of team was .4 - .6 PPG)
    • Pat Maroon - .38
    • Zach Sanford - .33
  • 2018 - Capitals (2 players PPG)
    • Brett Connolly - .39
    • Jay Beagle - .28
    • Devante Smith-Pelly - .21
  • 2017 - Penguins (2 players PPG)
    • Carl Hagelin - .36
    • Scott Wilson - .33
    • Tom Kuhnhackl - .29

Again, it's not that Girgensons isn't replaceable, it's just that teams that replace someone like Girgensons will be looking for someone like Girgensons.  So if you have him, why replace him?

 

  • Like (+1) 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, LTS said:

 

You are right.  The Sabres don't have those players, yet. But the point being that teams win with solid top 9 and a producing 4th line.  It's not a situation where all 4 lines are so good that someone like Girgensons doesn't have a place. The Sabres need a jump in offense (and better goaltending). If the likes of Thompson (.87), Skinner (.79), Tuch (.76), Olofsson (.68), Quinn, and Peterka can elevate the offense there's no reason to believe they don't have room on the 4th line.

I've outlined the Avs from last year.  I'll look at past Champs with forwards contributing higher than 55 GP (or if I can recall a significant trade deadline) who had .40 PPG or less.

  • 2021 - Lightning (interestingly had 0 players at a PPG or higher)
    • Pat Maroon - .33
    • Mathieu Joseph - .34
    • Barclay Goodrow - .36
  • 2020 - Lightning (4 players above or about a PPG; Point was .97)
    • Pat Maroon - .36
    • Cedric Paquette - .30
  • 2019 - Blues (zero players above PPG; O'Reilly was .94; majority of team was .4 - .6 PPG)
    • Pat Maroon - .38
    • Zach Sanford - .33
  • 2018 - Capitals (2 players PPG)
    • Brett Connolly - .39
    • Jay Beagle - .28
    • Devante Smith-Pelly - .21
  • 2017 - Penguins (2 players PPG)
    • Carl Hagelin - .36
    • Scott Wilson - .33
    • Tom Kuhnhackl - .29

Again, it's not that Girgensons isn't replaceable, it's just that teams that replace someone like Girgensons will be looking for someone like Girgensons.  So if you have him, why replace him?

 

Though you posted the PPG stats, with the possible exception of the Blues, the top lines on all those teams are way better than ours. I'm good running without a traditional 4th line myself.

In the 1998 Olympics, Team Canada tried to run a traditional 4th line. It completely backfired, and they lost to Hasek and the Czechs in the semis (lost the Bronze medal game to the Finns too). Since then they've gone with the model of outgunning the other team with their scoring depth on all 4 lines and Canada hasn't looked back since. I think our pipeline is shaping up to allow us to do the same.

Again, I didn't realize when I started this thread how far in the minority I was in thinking this, but personally I'd like them to run with the Team Canada model if they can, and not keep a kid down who can score (i.e. JJP this year, possibly Savoie, Kulich, etc next year), just because we need a plumber line.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Though you posted the PPG stats, with the possible exception of the Blues, the top lines on all those teams are way better than ours. I'm good running without a traditional 4th line myself.

In the 1998 Olympics, Team Canada tried to run a traditional 4th line. It completely backfired, and they lost to Hasek and the Czechs in the semis (lost the Bronze medal game to the Finns too). Since then they've gone with the model of outgunning the other team with their scoring depth on all 4 lines and Canada hasn't looked back since. I think our pipeline is shaping up to allow us to do the same.

Again, I didn't realize when I started this thread how far in the minority I was in thinking this, but personally I'd like them to run with the Team Canada model if they can, and not keep a kid down who can score (i.e. JJP this year, possibly Savoie, Kulich, etc next year), just because we need a plumber line.

Would be freakin' awesome and Granato might be the guy to have the balls to try it. If we are that deep.  I'm not there yet, need to see JJ and Quinn facing live bullets for a month or two.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

In the 1998 Olympics, Team Canada tried to run a traditional 4th line. It completely backfired, and they lost to Hasek and the Czechs in the semis (lost the Bronze medal game to the Finns too). Since then they've gone with the model of outgunning the other team with their scoring depth on all 4 lines and Canada hasn't looked back since. I think our pipeline is shaping up to allow us to do the same.

I'm not sure any NHL team would have the cap flexibility to ice a roster like 1998 Team Canada (F: Gretzky, Lindros, Sakic, Shanahan, Yzerman; D - Blake, Bourque, Desjardins, Pronger, Stevens; G - Brodeur, Roy) all established and in their prime/twilight so not on rookie deals. And while the Sabres pipeline is good... it's not comparable to those players quite yet.

I will contend that it didn't matter who was on Canada's 4th line: the Czechs had the 1998 version of Hasek (as well as a roster mostly made of solid veteran NHLers). The emphasis on roster construction could as easily be to get the best goalie in the world and worry about the 4th line later, if at all.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/23/2022 at 1:39 PM, JoeSchmoe said:

Though you posted the PPG stats, with the possible exception of the Blues, the top lines on all those teams are way better than ours. I'm good running without a traditional 4th line myself.

In the 1998 Olympics, Team Canada tried to run a traditional 4th line. It completely backfired, and they lost to Hasek and the Czechs in the semis (lost the Bronze medal game to the Finns too). Since then they've gone with the model of outgunning the other team with their scoring depth on all 4 lines and Canada hasn't looked back since. I think our pipeline is shaping up to allow us to do the same.

Again, I didn't realize when I started this thread how far in the minority I was in thinking this, but personally I'd like them to run with the Team Canada model if they can, and not keep a kid down who can score (i.e. JJP this year, possibly Savoie, Kulich, etc next year), just because we need a plumber line.

The top lines of those teams featured far more established players than what the Sabres have.  We have to hope the Sabres top lines gets to a few players that are near a PPG. 

The Blues were an exception in my book. They basically rode the new coach (Berube) and a hot goalie (Binnington).  They've not even come close to sniffing the same success since then.

The Lightning are 100% how you want your team to be built.. as were the Penguins.  You have to get the right players to produce.  The hope is the Sabres get that out of their drafting.

My point though, they built the top lines.. and then they still played players like Girgensons.  The Blues would be more like the Sabres are at this point, but they had the hot goalie (Comrie?) and potentially the perfect timing in the league.. who knows.  They still had players like Girgensons.

I don't buy into Hockey Canada.. all-star games are a completely different beast. You don't need a hard-checking 4th line because you are icing an all-star D squad and all-star goaltending.  Most hockey teams don't have that and so need a line that can shutdown players.  It's improbable tthat a team has 4 scoring line depth that will be effective against another team when that talent will have usually jumped to another team (so as to not be on the 4th line).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

The Sabres do not need to worry any time soon.

The Sabres need to start worrying July 1 because that's when they can look to sign several RFAs as well as offer deals to guys with 1 year left such as Power and Dahlin. Cozens, Asplund, and Samuelsson will have new more expensive contracts going into next season. Mitts, Krebs, Dahlin, Power, Joker, and Bryson all have 2 years until they need new deals so we are rapidly reaching a point of having to care about the cap again. Tage will be adding over 5.5mil more to the cap next season already. 

  • Like (+1) 1
  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Curt said:

They will need to worry about it sooner than you think.  By the 2024-25 season, Sabres will probably be up against the cap.

That is 3 seasons from now.  By then the cap should be a lot higher.  It's been treading water due to COVID and such, but is scheduled to really take off again in a year or 2.  By 2024/25 it may be as high as $100M+ and the Sabres will not likely be a cap team or up against it even with new contracts for all the shiney toys.

By that time they will be settling in for a good run for about a decade.  With many of the current players not on the team anymore.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

That is 3 seasons from now.  By then the cap should be a lot higher.  It's been treading water due to COVID and such, but is scheduled to really take off again in a year or 2.  By 2024/25 it may be as high as $100M+ and the Sabres will not likely be a cap team or up against it even with new contracts for all the shiney toys.

By that time they will be settling in for a good run for about a decade.  With many of the current players not on the team anymore.

You think the cap might go up $17.5M or even more in just two offseason?  No chance man.

Is it going to take a big $5M jump next (2023) offseason?  Or will it be mostly flat again?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Curt said:

You think the cap might go up $17.5M or even more in just two offseason?  No chance man.

Is it going to take a big $5M jump next (2023) offseason?  Or will it be mostly flat again?

I think we could see a decent jump next season because all the Seattle Revenue has basically never been accounted for. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think we could see a decent jump next season because all the Seattle Revenue has basically never been accounted for. 

Wasn’t the pandemic deal designed to keep it relatively flat next year too?

To give the paycheques a a chance to catch up because they are so far in “debt” due to increased escrow.

Edited by dudacek
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Wasn’t the pandemic deal designed to keep it relatively flat next year too?

To give the paycheques a a chance to catch up because they are so far in “debt” due to increased escrow.

I am unsure. I know that was the case for this season but maybe there is an artificial cap for next year too to help fix escrow which the players HATE. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...