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When is the Time to Trade Girgensens?


JoeSchmoe
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11 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Let him be the Kyle Williams of the Sabres:  The long time vet who finally got a peek at the playoffs before retiring... the Moses who saw the Promised Land but didn't quite get to go there.

I like the sentiment, but he's 28. Please tell me the Sabres make the playoffs long before he hits retirement age. 🙈

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1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I like the sentiment, but he's 28. Please tell me the Sabres make the playoffs long before he hits retirement age. 🙈

Will the Sabres re-sign him at the end of his contract next summer?  This truly may be the end of him as a Sabre.  So yeah, I'm talking about making the playoffs this year.

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Any team would gladly take Zemgus in a trade.  In basic economics demand being high and supply low means the price is high and likely rising, but this is the NHL and things don't always work that way.  All good teams have their Zemgus.

He is 'worth' his weight in gold, but the Sabres will never get that on the open market.  So, he will not be traded, nor should he.  I think he will be signed to a 2 year extension at a rise in pay of 500K / year.  Depending how that goes then maybe another after that.  I expect him to retire a Sabre by the time he is 32 or 33 and he will get a job in the organization someplace.

Edited by Sabres Fan in NS
more goodly ...
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2 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Any team would gladly take Zemgus in a trade.  In basic economics demand being high and supply low means the price is high and likely rising, but this is the NHL and things don't always work that way.  All good teams have their Zemgus.

He is 'worth' his weight in gold, but the Sabres will never get that on the open market.  So, he will not be traded, nor should he.  I think he will be signed to a 2 year extension at a rise in pay of 500K / year.  Depending how that goes then maybe another after that.  I expect him to retire a Sabre by the time he is 32 or 33 and he will get a job in the organization someplace.

This is what I would do.

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3 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I don't think he'll be competitive enough to be on the team that long.  He's essentially a homegrown JAG and younger players are coming for his job.

That is where I disagree with you. He is better than that.  As I said earlier, what I see, he isnt just a guy 'good enough' for penalty killing....to me is is good at it, which gives him a role on this team. Also, while not super productive, he is pretty good for a 4th liner at actually scoring. 

This team has had too many players on the 4th line since they have last been good, who just couldn't score at all over the last decade or so (Kaletta, Flynn, Deslaurier, Legwand, Larsson, and many others who played full seasons with 5 goals or less). While Zemgus isn't a first liner of course, he does score at a .5 goals 5v5 per 60 rate....which is in the same area as players like Oloffsson and Okposo over that same period.  That isn't insignificant.

I just don't see the hungry young guy who is going to play a role on the 4th line that will be better at penalty killing, better at scoring in that role, and will be so much better that you push a guy out like Zemgus who is also a team leader (as much as his position allows).  Unless he suffers a major injury, I want him in this team for at least a few more years in his role.

Edited by mjd1001
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10 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

That is where I disagree with you. He is better than that.  As I said earlier, what I see, he isnt just a guy 'good enough' for penalty killing....to me is is good at it, which gives him a role on this team. Also, while not super productive, he is pretty good for a 4th liner at actually scoring. 

This team has had too many players on the 4th line since they have last been good, who just couldn't score at all over the last decade or so (Kaletta, Flynn, Deslaurier, Legwand, Larsson, and many others who played full seasons with 5 goals or less). While Zemgus isn't a first liner of course, he does score at a .5 goals 5v5 per 60 rate....which is in the same area as players like Oloffsson and Okposo over that same period.  That isn't insignificant.

I just don't see the hungry young guy who is going to play a role on the 4th line that will be better at penalty killing, better at scoring in that role, and will be so much better that you push a guy out like Zemgus who is also a team leader (as much as his position allows).  Unless he suffers a major injury, I want him in this team for at least a few more years in his role.

Given the talent pool we've accumulated, we have the potential to ice 2nd line calibre guys on our 4th line (of course they would see more minutes than a traditional 4th line). I see Z holding up a lineup spot for some of those truly talented players. 

I know many here wouldn't want to deviate away from the traditional 4th line formula of crashing, banging, and low event hockey. But if we're ever going to win a cup, it won't be on the back of a high flying 1st line (a la Edmonton, Toronto, Boston, etc)... We just don't have the McDavid's, Matthew's, Marchard's, Kucherov's to do it. Instead, it will be because of our superior depth. Part of that will be our 4th line scoring a lot more than their 4th line. We won't be doing it by icing a line where the mentality is "We might not score a lot, but you're not going to score a lot either".

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4 hours ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Any team would gladly take Zemgus in a trade.  In basic economics demand being high and supply low means the price is high and likely rising, but this is the NHL and things don't always work that way.  All good teams have their Zemgus.

He is 'worth' his weight in gold, but the Sabres will never get that on the open market.  So, he will not be traded, nor should he.  I think he will be signed to a 2 year extension at a rise in pay of 500K / year.  Depending how that goes then maybe another after that.  I expect him to retire a Sabre by the time he is 32 or 33 and he will get a job in the organization someplace.

His cap hit is currently at 2.2.  You really want him under contract at 2.7?  Where is the bang for the buck with that deal?

 

I am fine with him this year, and then if he wants to re-sign for 1.5-2.0 for a year or two more fine   If not, time to move on        

Edited by LabattBlue
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36 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Given the talent pool we've accumulated, we have the potential to ice 2nd line calibre guys on our 4th line (of course they would see more minutes than a traditional 4th line). I see Z holding up a lineup spot for some of those truly talented players. 

I know many here wouldn't want to deviate away from the traditional 4th line formula of crashing, banging, and low event hockey. But if we're ever going to win a cup, it won't be on the back of a high flying 1st line (a la Edmonton, Toronto, Boston, etc)... We just don't have the McDavid's, Matthew's, Marchard's, Kucherov's to do it. Instead, it will be because of our superior depth. Part of that will be our 4th line scoring a lot more than their 4th line. We won't be doing it by icing a line where the mentality is "We might not score a lot, but you're not going to score a lot either".

It's not about traditional line roles, but there have to be at least 8 guys that are competent PK players on the team. Most of the young guys were not drafted for being 2-way players, so until someone can fill those PK roles there's a place for a better than average 4th line skillset player. If the Sabres really get to a place where they have 12 forwards that can play 2nd line and up offensively, then they should be looking to package guys up for truly great 2-way players to fill out the 4th line and PK. Some forwards have to play D sometimes, we're not Toronto.

FTR, I don't think this will really be an issue, the odds of every single rookie forward hitting this year are fairly slim. If it does become an issue, I don't have an issue trading Z away as long as a better all-around player comes back.

Edited by MattPie
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43 minutes ago, MattPie said:

Most of the young guys were not drafted for being 2-way players, so until someone can fill those PK roles there's a place for a better than average 4th line skillset player.

Given the chance, many high end guys can kill penalties, just as well as a 4th liner, they just don't. This is because coaches would rather have their JAGs expend that energy, to rest the high end guys for scoring. 

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5 hours ago, Xzy89c said:

Stupid Questions for a thousand Alex.

A suggestion for longevity here. Review all the other responses in this thread and then rethink yours.

--------------------

I don't see Girgensons going anywhere.  I don't think it's overvaluing our homegrown guy either. Every year teams sign JAGs that fill the role of Girgensons. They look for a veteran forward who plays a responsible game. One you can move around in the lineup and contribute reasonably on offense.

When you have the player, you don't get rid of him. There's a reason he's still on this team. At 23-27, if you have already earned JAG status you are not displacing someone like Girgensons.  You are expecting a two-way offer at best. At 23-27 you lack the experience (because you probably never earned it) to play in all situations.

You don't take a young "budding" star and put them on the 4th line.  That's not their role. They go back to the AHL until they can displace people on the first 3 lines.

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6 minutes ago, LTS said:

You don't take a young "budding" star and put them on the 4th line.  That's not their role. They go back to the AHL until they can displace people on the first 3 lines.

If this team is to win a cup, it won't be by running a traditional 4th line.

We will win with depth scoring across all four lines... Our 1st line simply isn't strong enough to carry the team.

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7 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

If this team is to win a cup, it won't be by running a traditional 4th line.

We will win with depth scoring across all four lines... Our 1st line simply isn't strong enough to carry the team.

If the  Sabres don't have to personnel to have a competent PK, they won't win the cup. 🙂 I'm not saying it's impossible that the Sabres don't have a bunch or players that are 2-way PK stars-in-waiting, but that would be an outlier from every other team in the league.

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16 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

If this team is to win a cup, it won't be by running a traditional 4th line.

We will win with depth scoring across all four lines... Our 1st line simply isn't strong enough to carry the team.

Not just the top line. No.  No team is that good.  But Girgensons had .32 PPG last year.  (58 games played)

The Stanley Cup Champs had:

Aube-Kubel - .33 (67 GP)
Logan O'Connor - .30 (81 GP)
Tyson Yost - .24 (59 GP)
Darren Helm - .22 (68 GP)

The Runner Up had:

Pat Maroon - .33 (81 GP)
Mathieu Joseph - .31 (58 GP)
Bellemare - .25 (80 GP)
 

There's clearly room for players of Girgensons ilk on Stanley Cup winning teams.  Sure, most of those players are all FA signings or trades, but again... why would you go get a Girgensons, when you have one.

 

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2 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

His cap hit is currently at 2.2.  You really want him under contract at 2.7?  Where is the bang for the buck with that deal?

 

I am fine with him this year, and then if he wants to re-sign for 1.5-2.0 for a year or two more fine   If not, time to move on        

Yes.  I'd bump it up to an even $3M per on a 2 year deal.

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1 hour ago, LTS said:

Not just the top line. No.  No team is that good.  But Girgensons had .32 PPG last year.  (58 games played)

The Stanley Cup Champs had:

Aube-Kubel - .33 (67 GP)
Logan O'Connor - .30 (81 GP)
Tyson Yost - .24 (59 GP)
Darren Helm - .22 (68 GP)

The Runner Up had:

Pat Maroon - .33 (81 GP)
Mathieu Joseph - .31 (58 GP)
Bellemare - .25 (80 GP)
 

There's clearly room for players of Girgensons ilk on Stanley Cup winning teams.  Sure, most of those players are all FA signings or trades, but again... why would you go get a Girgensons, when you have one.

 

You're missing the point.

We have no MacKinnon.

We have no Rantanen or Kadri.

We haven't a Kucherov or Stamkos either.

What we lack on our 1st line needs to be made up further down the lineup. Girgs level production on the 4th line will not win us a championship.

I'll add to the above by saying neither team referenced could afford to do any better on the 4th line. 

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1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

You're missing the point.

We have no MacKinnon.

We have no Rantanen or Kadri.

We haven't a Kucherov or Stamkos either.

What we lack on our 1st line needs to be made up further down the lineup. Girgs level production on the 4th line will not win us a championship.

I'll add to the above by saying neither team referenced could afford to do any better on the 4th line. 

Girgs had .32ppg game last year.

Take a look at this article:  https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/analysis/2017/6/13/15759364/the-modern-4th-line-in-the-nhl-more-than-just-treading-water-analysis-fourth-line

The point about production:

The players examined here averaged 0.30 PPG, which pro-rates to 24.6 points over 82 games. These numbers aligned relatively well with a raw analysis of NHL scoring: the forwards ranking between 271st and 360th in the regular season points standings averaged 0.26 PPG (21.3 points over 82).

Looking at the distribution:

The bottom 25% produced between 0.00 and 0.19 PPG (0 to 15.6 points over 82)

26-50% produced between 0.20 and 0.28 PPG (16.4 to 23.0 points over 82)

51-75% produced between 0.29 and 0.42 PPG (23.8 to 34.4 points over 82)

The top 25% were between 0.43 and 0.62 PPG (35.3 to 51.7 points over 82)

So Girgs is slightly above average in terms of points, and it the 2nd out of 4 quarters (2nd highest)

I haven't run all the stats but if you look at most NHL 4th liners he is even better ranked among those players in goals per 60 than he is in points.

Add to that the fact that he is good at penalty killing, is a great locker room guy, and all the things I mentioned in my previous post, and I'm not sure he is as replaceable as some thing, or that there is a good reason to just expect he should be replaced.

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