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Keeping Hall Long-term?


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What do the Sabres do if (when?) the Hall, Eichel, Reinhart line blows the doors off and puts up 210 pts or more in a 60 game season?  How does KA keep Hall from walking?

Obviously continuing to play with Jack is the biggest draw.  How many suitors would he have that can afford the big contract, have a top 10 center to play with and are playoff contenders?  Tor has the centers, but can't afford the contract.  I doubt he returns to NJ or Edm.  TB can't afford what they have, much less adding Hall.  The are having a hard time getting Barzal signed with the overhead being paid to Eberle and Ladd.  The Rags already have Panarin and Kreider at LW for big $ coupled w NMC.  The one team I really see making a run at him is Carolina. 

So how will it cost to keep him and how do we afford it?  He is already 29 and on a 1 year 8 mill deal.   Staal, Reinhart, Joker, Montour,  McCabe and Dahlin are also on 1 year deals, and we only have 44.7 mill committed for 2021-22 for 10 players.

Honestly, if Hall plays great, then I'd offer his 8.5 for 5 years.  I also think no one else comes close to this offer.  

Samson will probably get 7 for 7 (49 mill).  Dahlin's deal is the wild card.  Does he breakout and become elite, or does he get a Risto type 5 yr 25 mill deal?  

To afford those 3 contracts, someone is going to have to be replaced by younger and/or cheaper.  Buying out KO doesn't really help.  Our cap hit would still be 5 mill next season. At that point might as well keep the player. Staal probably won't be back unless it on a dirt cheap deal.  We better hope Cozens, Quinn, Thompson, Mitts and a D or 2 are ready.

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Hall stated when he left Deadmonton that he wanted to play for a team that made the playoffs. If the Sabres make the playoffs, the odds go way up because if they don't, there is little chance he re-signs.

You also have to take into account that he will want a 7 or 8 year deal and he will be 30 when his current deal is over. I wouldn't offer him more than a 5 year deal.

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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What do the Sabres do if (when?) the Hall, Eichel, Reinhart line blows the doors off and puts up 210 pts or more in a 60 game season?  How does KA keep Hall from walking?

Well, as much as that would be nice, it isn't going to happen. Even if they all stayed healthy the whole year (which is unlikely) and they played well as a unit, still doubt they'd get to that point total.

With the Skinner contract being the burden it is, it would be unlikely they can pay Hall top dollar AND pay Reinhart any sort of substantial raise. One, but not both can get paid I think. So if Hall and Eichel have magic together Sam will be let go one way or another. If Hall doesn't do great things this year then it's him that's gone (maybe both as that's likely a total failure blow it all up scenario as Eichel will want out too) Hopefully for either in a trade where we get something rather than at the end of his contract for nothing but dumping a truckload of money into 4 forwards is a recipe for disaster (or the Leafs......).

I'm excited with the additional of Hall (and Staal) and on paper this team seems much better, but making the playoffs is far from a lock. A lot rides on Cozens (or another 3rd line forward stepping up), Dahlin's development curve and what kind of goaltending we get. Skinner also has to get back to a 30 goal pace or thereabouts at least. The good news is last few years we've come out of the gate pretty good and with a shorter season that might help, but who knows. Cautious optimism is still how I look at it all. 

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Just now, Zamboni said:

A lot of IF’s have to happen...But if they do (which I have my doubts)....

Hall will want 10 -11 mil per on a 6-8 year deal. In my opinion ... if that’s the case, I hope the Sabres say thanks but no thanks.

If he does, bye. Tying that much up in wingers is a terrible idea. Especially in wingers over 30. 

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If this becomes a thing, it is because Hall's fit with the team and the city is exactly what Ralph sold him on.

And if that's the case, he should want to stay for what most of us would consider a team-friendly contract.

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7 hours ago, Ducky said:

Hall stated when he left Deadmonton that he wanted to play for a team that made the playoffs. If the Sabres make the playoffs, the odds go way up because if they don't, there is little chance he re-signs.

You also have to take into account that he will want a 7 or 8 year deal and he will be 30 when his current deal is over. I wouldn't offer him more than a 5 year deal.

I'm hoping that Hall has an exceptional season, and that is more likely to happen playing with Jack. If that level of play materializes odds are that the Sabres will be participating in the playoffs. That's what our focus should be on. As far as the contract ramifications for him and the organization will be it is obvious: There will be a challenging cap scenario for the organization. The Sabres will be confronted with tough choices the same way as teams such as NYI and Tampa are dealing with. Will Hall be willing to accept a rich annual contract that is not as extended as the standard lengthy 7 or 8 yr deal? If he isn't then you make the tough choice of moving on. 

Hall is an elite player who has been on multiple teams that have struggled.  He hasn't had the opportunity to showcase his talents in meaningful Stanley Cup runs. If the Sabres can become a serious team I'm inclined to believe that he would be receptive to a less than maximum contract situation with the Sabres. If he is not then he and the organization will move on. Let's not forget that Jersey dealt him when his contract was expiring because they weren't willing to pay the price to retain him. That's the system. 

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By the way; I don't think my 210 point prediction is way out of line.

Jack showed over the last two years that with the right winger and his improved goal scoring he can put up about 1.25 pts per game.  That's 75 points.  

Hall, before struggling somewhat last season, averaged 1.2 pts per game the prior two season with a center like Jack. (or even Staal).  That 72 pts for a 60 game season.  

All we are then asking is for Reinhart to average about 1 pt a game playing on a line with two elite players.  He should be capable of that.

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3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

By the way; I don't think my 210 point prediction is way out of line.

Jack showed over the last two years that with the right winger and his improved goal scoring he can put up about 1.25 pts per game.  That's 75 points.  

Hall, before struggling somewhat last season, averaged 1.2 pts per game the prior two season with a center like Jack. (or even Staal).  That 72 pts for a 60 game season.  

All we are then asking is for Reinhart to average about 1 pt a game playing on a line with two elite players.  He should be capable of that.

i don't think it's likely, at last year's pace they put up what what, 150, 160?

But I do agree it's not entirely out of line, more of an absolute best-case scenario.

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My bold prediction is that Hall will love playing with Eich and Samson.  That line will blow the doors off the league.  Patty and Mogilny all over again ... I can't even remember who was the other winger on that line.

Hall will stay and sign a team friendly $8.5 for 5 year deal.

Of course, this assumes they play at all in 2021.

If there is no season what happens with the Hall contract he signed in July?

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8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

 

With the Skinner contract being the burden it is, it would be unlikely they can pay Hall top dollar AND pay Reinhart any sort of substantial raise. One, but not both can get paid I think. So if Hall and Eichel have magic together Sam will be let go one way or another. If Hall doesn't do great things this year then it's him that's gone (maybe both as that's likely a total failure blow it all up scenario as Eichel will want out too) Hopefully for either in a trade where we get something rather than at the end of his contract for nothing but dumping a truckload of money into 4 forwards is a recipe for disaster (or the Leafs......).

I'm excited with the additional of Hall (and Staal) and on paper this team seems much better, but making the playoffs is far from a lock. A lot rides on Cozens (or another 3rd line forward stepping up), Dahlin's development curve and what kind of goaltending we get. Skinner also has to get back to a 30 goal pace or thereabouts at least. The good news is last few years we've come out of the gate pretty good and with a shorter season that might help, but who knows. Cautious optimism is still how I look at it all. 

I agree with most of this and would just add that based on statements from KA, RK and Hall, I think everyone is hoping and semi-planning that Hall and Eichel are great together, the Sabres make the playoffs and Hall signs an extension.  I also think that Reino's one-year contract, plus the other contracts the Sabres signed this offseason, were designed to allow for that possibility.

Bottom line is that Eichel and Skinner already have big contracts and Dahlin is likely to get one.  There probably isn't cap space for both Hall and Reino to get one as well -- so it will likely be one of them signing a fat extension and the other one moving on.

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40 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I agree with most of this and would just add that based on statements from KA, RK and Hall, I think everyone is hoping and semi-planning that Hall and Eichel are great together, the Sabres make the playoffs and Hall signs an extension.  I also think that Reino's one-year contract, plus the other contracts the Sabres signed this offseason, were designed to allow for that possibility.

Bottom line is that Eichel and Skinner already have big contracts and Dahlin is likely to get one.  There probably isn't cap space for both Hall and Reino to get one as well -- so it will likely be one of them signing a fat extension and the other one moving on.

I think there are some assumptions being made about player value that might be faulty.

  • Sergachev got $4.8 over 3, DeAngelo got $4.8 over 2. Weren't they this off-season's best Dahlin comparables?
  • Mantha got $5.7 over 4, Toffoli $4.2 over 4, Anderson $5.5 over 7. Aren't they of similar stature to Reinhart?
  • Nobody else offered Hall more than $5 or $6 this year. Pietrangelo was one of the best UFAs ever. He got $8.8

If Reinhart is getting 7, Dahlin 8, and Hall 10 next summer, they aren't only going to need career years, they are going to have to be signing in a considerably more bullish market than the one we just saw.

Edited by dudacek
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1 hour ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

My bold prediction is that Hall will love playing with Eich and Samson.  That line will blow the doors off the league.  Patty and Mogilny all over again ... I can't even remember who was the other winger on that line.

Hall will stay and sign a team friendly $8.5 for 5 year deal.

Of course, this assumes they play at all in 2021.

If there is no season what happens with the Hall contract he signed in July?

Yuri Khymlev.

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41 minutes ago, Weave said:

Yuri Khymlev.

I remember Yuri playing mostly with Hawerchuk.

It was Andreychuk for most of the two magical years, then Patty played seasons of just 16 and 45 games after that, then Alex was traded.

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3 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Do we want to see him play first? I'm asking for a friend.

But, carrion by all means.

We sure, but he does have a track record to look at and we can assume playing beside someone of Eichel's talent helps and he is in a contract year so he should be motivated so barring injury (which is a real thought, he has a small history there too, not an iron man) I think the expectation is he should - should - play like he did when he first went to NJ. 

But if he doesn't well yes, bring on the vultures to pick at the corpse of the franchise, but only then. Until then (and hopefully never) let optimism rule. 

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5 hours ago, dudacek said:

i don't think it's likely, at last year's pace they put up what what, 150, 160?

But I do agree it's not entirely out of line, more of an absolute best-case scenario.

Jack's 3 year pt average is 1.06 pts per game which if Jack plays down to his average he'll score 64 pts.  Hall's is 1.05 which translates to 63 pts.  Reinhart's is .71 pts/gp which equals 43 pts in a 60 game schedule.  That's a floor for that line of 170 pts.  

If the the combo works they should exceed those numbers easily.  Hall's best is 1.28 pts/gp, Jack's is 1.15, but matching his best goals and best assists and he can produce at 1.23.  Sam's is .8, but I think Sam can get to 1 pts per game playing with Hall and Eichel.

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3 hours ago, dudacek said:

I remember Yuri playing mostly with Hawerchuk.

It was Andreychuk for most of the two magical years, then Patty played seasons of just 16 and 45 games after that, then Alex was traded.

Correct.  And then after Andreychuk got traded, May spent the majority of time w/ those 2.

But back to the premise of this thread, there is one HUGE assumption that people are making and that is that Reinhart ends up the 3rd piece of the Eichel line.  Would still expect Olofsson to be the 3rd component.

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1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Correct.  And then after Andreychuk got traded, May spent the majority of time w/ those 2.

But back to the premise of this thread, there is one HUGE assumption that people are making and that is that Reinhart ends up the 3rd piece of the Eichel line.  Would still expect Olofsson to be the 3rd component.

I don't think olofsson is a top line forward. 

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11 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't think olofsson is a top line forward. 

But is he capable of effectively playing on the first line?

I mean I don't think anyone sees him as 1st liner like Pastrnak and Marchand are first-liners, but there are plenty of "good but not great" players that play on first lines with more legitimate first-liners.

Zach Hyman often plays on the Leafs first line, Zach Kassian on the Oilers, Jordan Eberle on the Islanders, Alex Radulov on the Stars, David Perron on the Blues, Travis Konecny on the Flyers, Ryan Strome on the Rangers, Kasperi Kapanen on the Penguins...

Is Olofsson a clear step down from guys like that?

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29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

But is he capable of effectively playing on the first line?

I mean I don't think anyone sees him as 1st liner like Pastrnak and Marchand are first-liners, but there are plenty of "good but not great" players that play on first lines with more legitimate first-liners.

Zach Hyman often plays on the Leafs first line, Zach Kassian on the Oilers, Jordan Eberle on the Islanders, Alex Radulov on the Stars, David Perron on the Blues, Travis Konecny on the Flyers, Ryan Strome on the Rangers, Kasperi Kapanen on the Penguins...

Is Olofsson a clear step down from guys like that?

Who knows. He needs to be better in the 200 ft game and be more effective 5 on 5.  He also needs to produce in year 2.  I do think he is a very nice 2nd line winger. 

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53 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't think olofsson is a top line forward. 

In a vacuum, he isn't.

BUT, as @dudacek accurately points out, a lot of non-top liners get put in that position and are successful at it.

The Sabres will have 2 EXCELLENT playmakers on the top line in Eichel & Hall and both have reasonable to good 200' games.  (Eichel still has issues at time w/ a strong cycle, but it is rare for him to look like Mittelstadt against one anymore and he is pretty solid in 1v1 battles and coming back against the rush.)  Putting a finisher out there with them, especially a finisher with a great 1 timer, can actually open up even more space for the other 2 or else he could pot 50 (even in a shortened season 😉 ).  Skinner needs to be near the net to finish.  Olofsson has a greater range of areas where he can score & that makes the passes from Jack & Taylor even more dangerous IMHO.

They don't need another playmaker.  Giving Staal & Skinner another playmaker would add more to that line than another finisher adds.  And again IMHO Victor complements the top 2 playmakers better than Skinner does.

As for the 5v5 issues, there were 5 distinct segments of the season for Olofsson: the "he only scores PP goals," the "he finally broke the seal & actually CAN score 5v5," the "post injury, can't score at all," the "he can finally score again, but needs 1 more goal for a huge bonus," and the "he's relaxed because he earned the bonus" phases.  Most IMHO put too much weight on his 2 gripping the stick too tight phases.  That he can slump badly is concerning, but that he broke out of both slumps is encouraging & with both Eichel & Hall on his line, he'll pretty much see nearly as much space 5vt as he's seen on PP.

Am expecting Rob Brown glued to Lemieux' hip sort of play / #'s (adjusted for eras) from Victor this year.

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