Prediction time: Sabres goalies

[nfreeman]

So, the Athletic today published a survey of 17 NHL GMs and coaches (7 GMs, 4 head coaches, 3 AGMs and 3 goalie coaches) in which the panel ranked all of the NHL starters.

Hutton tied for DFL.  One member of the panel said: 
 

Quote

 

“I think he’s a backup,” said a coach. “I think they have goaltending issues. They’re going to be interesting. They’ve committed to a lot of skill but I don’t know if they defend enough.”

 

 

Among goalies with 27 or more games played, Hutton was #32 in SV% (56th in SV% in shootouts), 39th in GAA and 30th in wins.

I thought Hutton (and Ullmark) played very well for the first 30 games or so of last season and then more or less fell off the table to the point of being a net negative for the team.

I wanted JB to bring in another goalie.  I am deeply concerned that having a mediocre goalie creates an impossible burden to overcome for a team struggling to emerge from long-term suckitude.

I think RK and the new goalie coach will help a bit, but I don't seem them surpassing lower middle class status.

And if it's obvious at the end of the year that goaltending held the team back and materially contributed to another bottom-8 season, I will be fine with terminating JB.  It will have been a terrible misjudgment about a fundamental part of the game -- analogous to Doug Whaley failing to bring in a real QB year after year.

 

[...]

The devil you say!

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

8 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

So, the Athletic today published a survey of 17 NHL GMs and coaches (7 GMs, 4 head coaches, 3 AGMs and 3 goalie coaches) in which the panel ranked all of the NHL starters.

Hutton tied for DFL.

Did they list him as last or 2nd last......just asking for 3 relatives and a co-worker.

[Taro T]

Couldn't vote, 'cause I'd expect the Sabres goaltending to be somewhere between 12-20.  Remember, the goaltending coach was greatly upgraded and Hutton & Ullmark started the year well last year.

Wouldn't have gone hard after a better goalie, but if someone better than Hammond that didn't get a Lehner contract were available would've been fine with them kicking the tires.

And really doubt goaltending will have been the biggest issue should they fail to top 90 points on D again.

[Randall Flagg]

Sometimes I don't think very highly of NHL front offices/coaching staffs.

"they've committed to a lot of skill but I don't think they defend enough?" 

That is not a serious diagnosis of the Sabres. The Sabres don't defend particularly WELL, but they're far better at that than at doing the things that "skill" does, because they don't HAVE "skill" relative to teams that do the "skill" stuff well. We were more or less the easiest team in the league to keep from doing anything dangerous with any consistency. We were not the most porous team defensively by a long shot. 

Anyway, as far as the thread topic goes, I think they're going to be very bad, in that bottom tier, but I don't think there was any real avenue to get a no-BS GOOD starting goalie this offseason via trade, so I'm not mad that didn't happen (they could have signed a guy like Mrazek, but he'd have been a shot in the dark as much as hoping for Ullmark's development IMO - he was horrid outside of Carolina, and Bob was obviously not going anywhere but the sunshine state). 

I don't think I'd fire him because of the goalie situation by itself, but there are other ways for me to get there pretty quickly this season that would INCLUDE the goalie situation as a reason. 

[Sabel79]

I'm not a particular fan of Hutton, and hope Ullmark can show us why @MODO Hockey loves him so much but I have my doubts.  However, I think it's been made pretty clear since the salary cap that pouring too much money down the goalie hole is a good way to keep good teams from going over the top, and bad teams from getting anywhere at all.  If a moderately priced upgrade was available, which I highly doubt, then oh well.  We roll with what we have.

[jsb]

I can't help but think that they're waiting on next year to make a bang in free agency including a GK with so many guys coming off the books. I think JBotts gets this year and next before they think about making a move.

[dudacek]

I worry that our skaters will be better than we think this year, but this will surface as our Achilles heel and keep us out the playoffs.

Im not sure what we could have done, because the options were either blah (Mrazek), too expensive (Boborovsky) or non-starters (Lehner)

I agree this duo represents a very deliberate decision by Jason Botterill that he should be held accountable for.

Edited September 25, 2019 by dudacek

[TrueBlueGED]

I expect us to have bottom-10 goaltending. Whether that ends up around 21st or 31st is anyone's guess. Ultimately I don't think there was anything for Botterill to do this offseason, nor am I especially in favor of investing a significant amount in a trade for a goalie. However, Botterill had plenty of options last offseason and he chose the Hutton-Ullmark tandem. I struggle with the final question prompt because it's a double-barreled question, so I'll simply say if the team stinks again then I have no problem with Botterill being canned. It's not my expectation, but I'd support it. 

[...]

Between the 2C in general, Mitts and Tage on the regular roster, and the goalie situation, Botterill has ignored a lot of important things.

[Randall Flagg]

10 minutes ago, ... said:

Between the 2C in general, Mitts and Tage and Sobotka and Okposo and Scandella on the regular roster, and the goalie situation, Botterill has ignored a lot of important things.

 

[Radar]

13 minutes ago, ... said:

Between the 2C in general, Mitts and Tage on the regular roster, and the goalie situation, Botterill has ignored a lot of important things.

I think saying ignored is maybe unfair. What do we know he could have done that he hasn't?

[...]

5 minutes ago, Radar said:

I think saying ignored is maybe unfair. What do we know he could have done that he hasn't?

Sent Mitts and Tage down.  For my friend @Randall Flagg, I'll add waive KO, Sobatakaka, and Scanderella.  Not wait until September 2019 to see what options were available for the 2C.

[Radar]

7 minutes ago, ... said:

Sent Mitts and Tage down.  For my friend @Randall Flagg, I'll add waive KO, Sobatakaka, and Scanderella.  Not wait until September 2019 to see what options were available for the 2C.

How do we know he has "waited"? Would waiving those players make us better? Replacements? We seem as fans to assume we know more than management and coaches. I highly doubt we really do.

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, Radar said:

How do we know he has "waited"? Would waiving those players make us better? Replacements? We seem as fans to assume we know more than management and coaches. I highly doubt we really do.

Literally yes, waiving the worst players to grace NHL ice the previous season is generally the way to go and generally gives you a chance to make your team better

[...]

11 minutes ago, Radar said:

How do we know he has "waited"? 

Giving Botterill the benefit of the doubt, he had all of this calendar year to address the 2C.  Probably had December of 2018 as well, since, by then, it was obvious Mitts wasn't a Dahlin or Eichel equivalent.

[Radar]

Seems we're assuming we have ignored better available players to play the worst players in the NHL. Now what GM would do that? Is Botterill literally brain dead? Please , Flagg, a rhetorical question only.

[miles]

I dont think the Sabres goalies will be anything better than middle of the road to bottom of the road. 

However I think once lucanan (spelling) is ready next year than everything will turn around. I still think the Sabres need stronger defense though. I suspect they could get by better if they had better defense...I mean look at the islanders last season 

[darksabre]

Hutton will be the same old Hutton. But a lot rides on Ullmark's development getting back on track. The new goalie coach has work to do because last season was a total loss. 

[erickompositör72]

34 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Literally yes, waiving the worst players to grace NHL ice the previous season is generally the way to go and generally gives you a chance to make your team better

I think this is more of a coaching call. My understanding was that Botterill gave PH his take on Sobotka, and PH insisted he had value to the team and continued playing him. I'm guessing it was one of the biggest reasons PH lost his job.

(Unless you're arguing PH should have been fired mid-season)

[Randall Flagg]

28 minutes ago, Radar said:

Seems we're assuming we have ignored better available players to play the worst players in the NHL. Now what GM would do that? Is Botterill literally brain dead? Please , Flagg, a rhetorical question only.

Are you saying no NHL GM has ever made a mistake in player evaluations, or had flawed ideologies for what makes an effective NHL player? 

The dude has brought into this organization ten different bad forwards in 2 years. This isn't simply because "woe is us, nothing else better was available." Botterill likes the moves he made this year, he liked the moves he made last year, he liked the Griffith/Nolan/Josefson/Pouliot moves the year before, and he didn't feel strongly enough about some players to want to get rid of them THIS offseason. It's possible that he is wrong about some of this stuff. 

I'm not calling him brain dead, but moving to your end of the logical extreme that he simply couldn't replace ANY of the 3-5 players we have at the bottom of all metrics available of 700+ NHL skaters, is basically admitting that NHL hockey is deterministic and there's nothing anyone can do but let their team be as good or bad as it already is. In this light, we can simply never criticize anyone ever - after all, what do WE know? And what use is that philosophy in any situation, much less on a discussion board?

2 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

I think this is more of a coaching call. My understanding was that Botterill gave PH his take on Sobotka, and PH insisted he had value to the team and continued playing him. I'm guessing it was one of the biggest reasons PH lost his job.

(Unless you're arguing PH should have been fired mid-season)

Botterill controls the roster, and there is no way Vlad should be a part of it this year. 

Edited September 25, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Sometimes I don't think very highly of NHL front offices/coaching staffs.

"they've committed to a lot of skill but I don't think they defend enough?" 

That is not a serious diagnosis of the Sabres. The Sabres don't defend particularly WELL, but they're far better at that than at doing the things that "skill" does, because they don't HAVE "skill" relative to teams that do the "skill" stuff well. We were more or less the easiest team in the league to keep from doing anything dangerous with any consistency. We were not the most porous team defensively by a long shot. 

 

I took that as a commentary on the direction Botterill has been taking.

Key players signed or acquired this year who are more known for their skill than their ability to defend: Skinner, Johansson, Miller, Montour, Jokiharju,  Vesey.

Couple that with the reputation of key guys like Eichel and Dahlin and kids like Casey and Tage and I see where he was coming from.

Which makes your point of not having enough skill all the more damning.

[pi2000]

Hutton is terrible.

Ullmark has potential, we'll find out this year.    It's make or break time for the young Swede.

UPL already has hip problems, I'm not counting on him down the road.

Erik Portillo is an intriguing prospect.   I like that JBOT keeps drafting goalies, but there is no proven veteran starter anywhere in the organization.    At some point that needs to change.

[Weave]

Bottom 10 goaltending is my prediction.

Yes, given the importance of the position I think it should have been prioritized to acquire one with assets or dollars.

I'm not at fire him if the goaltending holds us back, but I am rapidly approaching fire him if the combination of moves/non-moves results in a disappointing season, goaltending included.

 

 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

Hutton is terrible.

Ullmark has potential, we'll find out this year.    It's make or break time for the young Swede.

UPL already has hip problems, I'm not counting on him down the road.

Erik Portillo is an intriguing prospect.   I like that JBOT keeps drafting goalies, but there is no proven veteran starter anywhere in the organization.    At some point that needs to change.

It’s probably wise not to truly count on any young goalie prospect.  

However, hip surgery like UPL had is becoming more and more common for young goalies.  Did Ullmark not have the exact same surgery?  I think it’s a result of the fact that a lot of people’s hips are just not well engineered to do the things that goalies do.  I don’t think it will be an issue for UPL going forward.