GDT - The Snarks (hey, Taro) @ The Mighty Sabres of Buffalo - November 27, 2018 - 7:00 PM (EST) - 8:00 PM (NS time)

[Robviously]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

 

1. Botterill's interviews, just like those of any pro coach or GM, are going to have a lot of subterfuge.  He's playing poker.  Yes, he said he adored ROR and saw him as a part of the future.  And then he dealt him.  That says more about how he valued him than the interviews do.

2. You really think ROR didn't know how the "I lost my love the game" would go over when he said it?  People were beside themselves that a pro athlete would say that, especially in hockey where these guys never say anything in interviews.  It was a calculated move.  He knew it would generate a ton of media attention, and it did.  And if Botterill kept him and the team sucked again this year, he'd look ridiculous for keeping a player that literally said he didn't care anymore.  ROR got what he wanted.  He didn't say it was a hard season and he was frustrated, and he didn't say we're going to turn it around.  He said it exactly the way he did for a reason.

3. I *do* think it's reasonable that Botterill decided to "probably look to add" another top player but he sure didn't know he would definitely be able to.  To make the ROR move well before he knew if he'd be able to add Skinner or anyone else, again, speaks volumes.

7 minutes ago, Derrico said:

So.....10 in a row eh?  Good friggen lord.......

Sorry, this is a St. Louis Blues message board now.  We can't enjoy the Sabres without also praising ROR for being a wonderful man.

[Hoss]

36 minutes ago, Weave said:

 

Only nitpick I have is, his leaving  Colorado was contract related.  Nothing more.

I recall it being more role-related than contract related.

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, Robviously said:

1. Botterill's interviews, just like those of any pro coach or GM, are going to have a lot of subterfuge.  He's playing poker.  Yes, he said he adored ROR and saw him as a part of the future.  And then he dealt him.  That says more about how he valued him than the interviews do.

2. You really think ROR didn't know how the "I lost my love the game" would go over when he said it?  People were beside themselves that a pro athlete would say that, especially in hockey where these guys never say anything in interviews.  It was a calculated move.  He knew it would generate a ton of media attention, and it did.  And if Botterill kept him and the team sucked again this year, he'd look ridiculous for keeping a player that literally said he didn't care anymore.  ROR got what he wanted.  He didn't say it was a hard season and he was frustrated, and he didn't say we're going to turn it around.  He said it exactly the way he did for a reason.

3. I *do* think it's reasonable that Botterill decided to "probably look to add" another top player but he sure didn't know he would definitely be able to.  To make the ROR move well before he knew if he'd be able to add Skinner or anyone else, again, speaks volumes.

1. and insert hockey player here's interviews, just like any hockey player's interviews, are "I want to go home and take a goddamn bath" interviews.

2. No, because to this day I fundamentally cannot see where the twitterverse is coming from in the way they blew that up. The insinuation that it was part of a master plan to orchestrate his way out of town is in "vortex of sadness" territory of hockey analysis, in that it isn't, and I'm really done treating it like it is on a hockey forum I guess. Which should be music to SS's ears, as I understand that it's tiresome to read my posts about ROR.

 

[Robviously]

Just now, Randall Flagg said:

1. and insert hockey player here's interviews, just like any hockey player's interviews, are "I want to go home and take a goddamn bath" interviews.

2. No, because to this day I fundamentally cannot see where the twitterverse is coming from in the way they blew that up. The insinuation that it was part of a master plan to orchestrate his way out of town is in "vortex of sadness" territory of hockey analysis, in that it isn't, and I'm really done treating it like it is on a hockey forum I guess. Which should be music to SS's ears, as I understand that it's tiresome to read my posts about ROR.

 

The answer to #2 is in #1!!!!!!  These guys have a couple days and then they come in to clean out their lockers and talk to the media.  And players generally don't give reporters any juicy quotes.  WHICH IS WHY IT STOOD OUT WHEN O'REILLY DECIDED TO TELL EVERYONE HE'D LOST HIS LOVE OF THE GAME.  

And phrasing it exactly that way puts it all on Jason Botterill to do something.  Because if he'd kept ROR after that and we were still bad this year, he'd be fired.  Because that means he kept a guy who openly said his passion for the game was gone.  

[dudacek]

A Twitter search doesn’t turn up anything other than a Berglund package not being enough to get Spezza in 2014, the Canucks trying to pry him out of St. Lou at the same time, and lots of teams trying to acquire Sobotka’s rights while he was in the KHL. 

I didn’t look that hard, but regardless, McKenzie was reporting Botterill was listening on O’Reilly as far back as a year ago. Shannon said O’Reilly was worth a second and Lebrun said the Sabres got a haul.

My point is that not generally buying into “buzz” is kinda your thing.

15 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I don't recall tweets from Friedmann and Dreger several times over the course of a year about how Jack and Sam abruptly quit the joke they were in the midst of as Snook enters the room, fearfully glancing over their shoulders. 

I do remember tweets from Friedmann and Dreger several times over the course of a year about how Doug Armstrong is trying to dump the contracts, first of Berglund ( that one probably ran a year and a half) and then for Sobotka. 

If that helps explain where I'm coming from.

 

Edited November 29, 2018 by dudacek

[...]

1 hour ago, Robviously said:

I'm glad the GDT about our 10th win in a row, tying the longest streak in team history, has turned into a battle to defend ROR's honor.  

This outburst isn't about ROR's honor.  This hasn't been about ROR for months.

[Derrico]

18 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I don't recall tweets from Friedmann and Dreger several times over the course of a year about how Jack and Sam abruptly quit the joke they were in the midst of as Snook enters the room, fearfully glancing over their shoulders. 

I do remember tweets from Friedmann and Dreger several times over the course of a year about how Doug Armstrong is trying to dump the contracts, first of Berglund ( that one probably ran a year and a half) and then for Sobotka. 

If that helps explain where I'm coming from.

Ok, I don’t wanna get sucked into this.  

But weren’t you the one that stated during the Kane trade rumours that basically all, or most of the analysts comments are garbage?  It’s basically them trying to stir up webpage hits and get people talking.  You commented how they basically don’t say anything.  I started reading insider info closer and you were damn right.  Now this is what your using as evidence that the blues just wanted to dump these guys?  I don’t understand why you take the ROR trade almost personally.  I wanted ROR when we got him as much as anybody.  But we did jack ***** with him.  He’s gone and the sabres lead the nhl in points and the blues are a damn tire fire.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

9 minutes ago, Derrico said:

Ok, I don’t wanna get sucked into this.  

But weren’t you the one that stated during the Kane trade rumours that basically all, or most of the analysts comments are garbage?  It’s basically them trying to stir up webpage hits and get people talking.  You commented how they basically don’t say anything.  I started reading insider info closer and you were damn right.  Now this is what your using as evidence that the blues just wanted to dump these guys?  I don’t understand why you take the ROR trade almost personally.  I wanted ROR when we got him as much as anybody.  But we did jack ***** with him.  He’s gone and the sabres lead the nhl in points and the blues are a damn tire fire.

I'm waiting to hear the argument that Hutton is the only reason for the "rise" and "fall" between the two teams.

[Cityo'Rasmii]

How 'bout them crazy crazy good Sabres

[Robviously]

Just now, Cityo'Rasmii said:

How 'bout them crazy crazy good Sabres

Hey, the Sabres have been playing well and it's neat.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

16 minutes ago, Robviously said:

Hey, the Sabres have been playing well and it's neat.

Robviously!

 

[nfreeman]

FTR, I think @Randall Flagg is right about STL wanting to dump Bergy’s contract.  He’s well overpaid in both dollars and term.  

I think his evaluation of Sobotka’s fancystats is impaired by both small sample size and the new guy/new team/new coach/new system distortion.  I think Sobotka is a pretty decent player — probably a bit better than the guys on the checking line, but not good enough to create much offense without good offensive players on his line.

i totally understand Flagg’s frustration with the simplistic nature of “the Sabres got better without ROR and STL got worse with him, so he must be a cancer,” as it is highly unscientific and squarely contradicted by ROR’s fancystats — but we should remember that those stats aren’t quite scientific either.  

I think @Robviously is right that ROR was trying to force his way out of here and that the locker cleanout interview was part of the strategy for doing so.  

I think the $7.5MM was a factor in the timing of the trade, but I don’t think TP ordered JB to make the trade in time to save the money.  I also don’t think the Sabres would’ve gotten much more than they got from STL if they had eaten the $7.5MM.

I think as long as the Sabres are crushing it and STL stinks, it is inevitable that there will be plenty of anti-ROR posts here, which is totally fine.  

 

[grinreaper]

31 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

FTR, I think @Randall Flagg is right about STL wanting to dump Bergy’s contract.  He’s well overpaid in both dollars and term.  

I think his evaluation of Sobotka’s fancystats is impaired by both small sample size and the new guy/new team/new coach/new system distortion.  I think Sobotka is a pretty decent player — probably a bit better than the guys on the checking line, but not good enough to create much offense without good offensive players on his line.

i totally understand Flagg’s frustration with the simplistic nature of “the Sabres got better without ROR and STL got worse with him, so he must be a cancer,” as it is highly unscientific and squarely contradicted by ROR’s fancystats — but we should remember that those stats aren’t quite scientific either.  

I think @Robviously is right that ROR was trying to force his way out of here and that the locker cleanout interview was part of the strategy for doing so.  

I think the $7.5MM was a factor in the timing of the trade, but I don’t think TP ordered JB to make the trade in time to save the money.  I also don’t think the Sabres would’ve gotten much more than they got from STL if they had eaten the $7.5MM.

I think as long as the Sabres are crushing it and STL stinks, it is inevitable that there will be plenty of anti-ROR posts here, which is totally fine.  

 

I caught the 3rd period of the Blues and Red Wings game tonight. #90 was his old self, winning faceoffs, stealing pucks and heavily involved in the play. He's a really good complete player but we're obviously a much better team without him, but with the players we were able to pick up with his salary gone.

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

A Twitter search doesn’t turn up anything other than a Berglund package not being enough to get Spezza in 2014, the Canucks trying to pry him out of St. Lou at the same time, and lots of teams trying to acquire Sobotka’s rights while he was in the KHL. 

I didn’t look that hard, but regardless, McKenzie was reporting Botterill was listening on O’Reilly as far back as a year ago. Shannon said O’Reilly was worth a second and Lebrun said the Sabres got a haul.

My point is that not generally buying into “buzz” is kinda your thing.

 

It was in Friedmann's 31 thoughts, or some other segment that these guys like to do, often. Not only did I read it directly regularly, but I've seen it discussed on several forums among several fanbases. It definitely happened. If you reeeeeeeally want me to I'll start looking, I should back up my claims. 

And if you provide evidence to suggest that Doug Armstrong discussion among those guys contradicts other claims they'd made, in a manner similar to the evidence I showed about that being the case with Dreger and Kane's availability, I'll lay off that talking point. 

And you're right that I hate twitter buzz as evidence, but in a context where we are parsing the phrase "i need to be better" and the projections I see people okay with  dragging out of that, a tweet may as well be a five-sigma discovery at CERN. 

Edited November 29, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

 

2 hours ago, Derrico said:

Ok, I don’t wanna get sucked into this.  

But weren’t you the one that stated during the Kane trade rumours that basically all, or most of the analysts comments are garbage?  It’s basically them trying to stir up webpage hits and get people talking.  You commented how they basically don’t say anything.  I started reading insider info closer and you were damn right.  Now this is what your using as evidence that the blues just wanted to dump these guys?  I don’t understand why you take the ROR trade almost personally.  I wanted ROR when we got him as much as anybody.  But we did jack ***** with him.  He’s gone and the sabres lead the nhl in points and the blues are a damn tire fire.

I showed that Dreger made tweets about teams being hot on Kane and making serious calls a month before Dreger eventually said that there were no serious calls made on Kane until the day of the trade deadline. If you find something similar with Friedmann and Berglund, let me know. 

Like I said to duda, I don't WANT to use insiderzzzz as evidence, but I'm in an argument where postgame interview quotes lay insight into the woes of the St. Louis Blues right now. 

2 hours ago, ... said:

This outburst isn't about ROR's honor.  This hasn't been about ROR for months.

What's it about, sizzle? 

Edited November 29, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Doohickie]

20 minutes ago, grinreaper said:

but with the players we were able to pick up with his salary gone

Bascially $Sobotka + $Bergi + $Tage ~= $ROR in terms of cap hit, but the left side of the equation doesn't last as long as ROR's contract.  If TT works out he'll command an increase; I don't see Bergie or Sobotka getting re-signed based on what we've seen out of them so far.  They're good JAGs but not much more.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I'm waiting to hear the argument that Hutton is the only reason for the "rise" and "fall" between the two teams.

I just showed that Hutton by himself is responsible for 25 fewer goals against than last year's goaltending would have given this team through 25 games this year, given how many shots we give up and where we give them up from. That's not nothin. 

Though, of course having the makings of a super line with Skinner-Jack and revamped depth forwards that don't drag two lines to tank metrics, and being on pace to get more goals from our D by game 35 than we did all of last year, help too. 

Not sure who would lay blame/credit for teams getting better/worse all on one player.

Actually, I know exactly who likes to do that! (kidding)

Edited November 29, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Hoss]

$3.85M is not an overpayment for a guy who is part of one of the best checking lines in the league. His term is tough. His actual dollars are not. (In reference to Berglund and @nfreeman‘s comment).

Ideally he will score more but I think that will comes. I noted it before the trade and I’ll note it here again: Berglund had more goals per game than ROR in the three years prior to the trade.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

The last several pages has me tempted to lock this thread.

Unprecedented for a GDT.

You guys should take the ROR stuff someplace else, please.

[That Aud Smell]

I think I’m done with the ROR debates, too.

But sometimes lively tangential debates arise, and need to play out, in an unrelated thread. 

Telling people to take it to a dedicated thread isn’t always practicable. 

It’s not unlike the difference between an honest fight erupting from the flow of play between 2 welterweights and a staged fight between 2 enforcers (not that those happen anymore).

[Hoss]

11 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I think I’m done with the ROR debates, too.

But sometimes lively tangential debates arise, and need to play out, in an unrelated thread. 

Telling people to take it to a dedicated thread isn’t always practicable. 

It’s not unlike the difference between an honest fight erupting from the flow of play between 2 welterweights and a staged fight between 2 enforcers (not that those happen anymore).

I don’t get this place’s obsession with controlling and trafficking conversation. It’s an Internet forum. That’s how it works (within reason, at least this is a purely hockey conversation).

NOW let’s get on a tangent about how derailing threads is fine and debate it in this unrelated thread!

[Huckleberry]

9 hours ago, Robviously said:

The answer to #2 is in #1!!!!!!  These guys have a couple days and then they come in to clean out their lockers and talk to the media.  And players generally don't give reporters any juicy quotes.  WHICH IS WHY IT STOOD OUT WHEN O'REILLY DECIDED TO TELL EVERYONE HE'D LOST HIS LOVE OF THE GAME.  

And phrasing it exactly that way puts it all on Jason Botterill to do something.  Because if he'd kept ROR after that and we were still bad this year, he'd be fired.  Because that means he kept a guy who openly said his passion for the game was gone.  

I agree, the moment he said that I thought we should trade him.  

But don't care about the trade anymore, Thompson is looking better, Berglund/Sobotka I hoped would bring more, but they do balance the team.   

And that 1st rounder in 2020 will be nice for our future.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I'm not trying to drive discussion, but there is a long standing tradition here to talk about the game in a GDT.

Especially when there is a thread covering the very topic that was discussed at length here.

Several posters tried to get back to the topic at hand.

Anyway, carry on ...

 

[hockeyhound]

In the immortal words of  Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith, " I love it when a good plan comes together."

As I've heard it mentioned, the players haven't been asked to play beyond what they're capable of or maybe better yet, the management, coaches, and staff have somehow figured out what each players strengths and weaknesses are, and given them specific roles to play this year.

It makes sense, and it seems to allow the players to concentrate on being good at what they do best.

In conclusion, there has been a lot said regarding ROR and all applicable trades, so as spndnchz so eloquently said not too long ago, " And I think all that needs to be said, has been said."? ?

I love this team, they're winning a boat load of games, and right now it's a great time to be a Sabres fan.

Let's Go Buffalo!

 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

9 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I just showed that Hutton by himself is responsible for 25 fewer goals against than last year's goaltending would have given this team through 25 games this year, given how many shots we give up and where we give them up from. That's not nothin. 

Though, of course having the makings of a super line with Skinner-Jack and revamped depth forwards that don't drag two lines to tank metrics, and being on pace to get more goals from our D by game 35 than we did all of last year, help too. 

Not sure who would lay blame/credit for teams getting better/worse all on one player.

Actually, I know exactly who likes to do that! (kidding)

You will never be able to PROVE this, sorry it's a team game and this team is totally different than last years team and St. Louis. All the stats in the world couldn't prove any such thing. How do you know what Lehner would be doing in a Sabres uni right now? Could he have changed just like some others on this team did. Who knows and you can't prove anything with his stats this year 'cause he's not on the Sabres this year. Then there is Jake Allen...likely the reason for Hutton being available to us. Can't honestly say Hutton is reason the Blues fell so far.

Stats are stats and I get that and they can sometimes give you a barometer to measure with but PROVE anything (if they did Las Vegas would be bankrupt). You wouldn't have to watch a game to know what the outcome will be.

Players stats change from game-game, week-week, year-year and so do teams. You can suggest that Hutton by himself is responsible for ....against last years goaltending, but by all means it is absolutely nothin'. Last years tending could have improved along with the rest of the team and you will never be able to PROVE differently without them actually being here and playing under the exact same conditions.