What value in a contract for Skinner?

[mjd1001]

7 or 8 years is what it looks like it will have to be.  I'd hope for 7, but you have to give him what he wants to sign.

7 at $62 million....or 8 at $69 million.  I am thinking it will be in that area.  8 at anything above $75 million and I start to cringe a little bit.  7 years at $55 million or less and I'm rejoicing.

[PromoTheRobot]

On 11/9/2018 at 9:56 AM, bob_sauve28 said:

Has there been any news reports that they are even talking? 

They're some rule that says the Sabres have to wait until Jan 1 before they can negotiate. Something to do with Skinner being acquired in a trade. But I did see a reporter tweet that said Skinner wants to stay and the Sabres do too and negotiations are certain to happen.

Edited December 20, 2018 by PromoTheRobot

[PromoTheRobot]

On 11/14/2018 at 11:03 AM, LGR4GM said:

8million would put him at about 10% of the cap going forward. That isn't terrible. 

What does Eichel make? We can't pay Skinner more than Eich.

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

What does Eichel make? We can't pay Skinner more than Eich.

$10MM for 7 additional seasons beyond this one.

[sabills]

2 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

What does Eichel make? We can't pay Skinner more than Eich.

Eichel is at 10m per

[JJFIVEOH]

41 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

7 or 8 years is what it looks like it will have to be.  I'd hope for 7, but you have to give him what he wants to sign.

7 at $62 million....or 8 at $69 million.  I am thinking it will be in that area.  8 at anything above $75 million and I start to cringe a little bit.  7 years at $55 million or less and I'm rejoicing.

I cringe at players who want contracts in a contract year who are putting up career numbers, as in they are putting out because they ARE in a contract year. Granted, Skinner is putting up career numbers, but he has always been a top notch scorer even when he was playing in crappy teams and had subpar linemates. 

I still don't think these guys should be getting paid this much, but superstars who get their big payday seem to get them when they are 28-30 years old. Skinner isn't that old. He will want 8 years, and without giving him that he will look elsewhere. 

There might be talent coming up through the pipelines, or here already and just needs more time. But, if you're a freshly rebuilt team and have found a potential combo that will set team records, do you mess with that? 

It's not often I say this, but, PAY THE MAN HIS MONEY! And let's move on. If cap becomes an issue, Skinner shouldn't be the casualty. 

I'm guessing 8/72

Edited December 20, 2018 by JJFIVEOH

[thewookie1]

I won’t go above 8. 

[dudacek]

As always, you go by comparables. 

The issue is how much this career year plays a factor. For his career, Skinner is a 30-goal, 55-point man.

 Highest UFA contract ever given a winger is Pat Kane’s $10.5

Recent comparables include:

Voracek $8.2

Kessel $8

Ryan $7.2

Kane $7

Van Reimsdyk $7

Marchand $6.1

Okposo $6

Lucic $6

I would suggest $7 is fair value based on his career, but this season and his fit on the team should push him as high as $8. 

I’d say eight years is a given.

[Drunkard]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

I won’t go above 8. 

Then you don't want him on the team. There's almost no chance he signs for 8 or less.

[thewookie1]

Just now, Drunkard said:

Then you don't want him on the team. There's almost no chance he signs for 8 or less.

So be it, I’m not paying a winger more than 8 for 8 years. That only is asking for it to backfire

[Huckleberry]

will be 8x8.25  I think.   He wants to be here, sabres want him, both sides will cave a bit.

[...]

I don't think it goes above $8 mil per.  Skinner can score goals with the right players around him, but without the right players he's not going to do what he's doing here points-wise.  And he's not a 2-way force by a long shot.  Dude's making $5,725,000 now.  I think $7,725,000 x 8 gets it done, or round it up to $62 mil over 8.  That contract would put him in the $100 millionaire club.  That kind of money plus the opportunity at his name being on the Cup and on "best of" sheets for decades ought to be worth it to him.

[PromoTheRobot]

47 minutes ago, ... said:

I don't think it goes above $8 mil per.  Skinner can score goals with the right players around him, but without the right players he's not going to do what he's doing here points-wise.  And he's not a 2-way force by a long shot.  Dude's making $5,725,000 now.  I think $7,725,000 x 8 gets it done, or round it up to $62 mil over 8.  That contract would put him in the $100 millionaire club.  That kind of money plus the opportunity at his name being on the Cup and on "best of" sheets for decades ought to be worth it to him.

BINGO!  I hope Jeff sees that. He could chase a bigger payday but will he replicate what he's got going here? As my old boss was fond of saying "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered."

[GASabresIUFAN]

Part of his contract price is his value to us.  We are committed to Jack for the next decade plus.  We need to have a sniper to convert Jack’s passes. Who else is our organization is qualified for the job?  Who outside the organization of similar quality is available at any price and do we know that they player will have the same chemistry with Jack? 

So what is Skinner’s value to us?

[thewookie1]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Part of his contract price is his value to us.  We are committed to Jack for the next decade plus.  We need to have a sniper to convert Jack’s passes. Who else is our organization is qualified for the job?  Who outside the organization of similar quality is available at any price and do we know that they player will have the same chemistry with Jack? 

So what is Skinner’s value to us?

Around 8mil

Eichel can survive without Skinner specifically 

Skinner requires a high end center to reach his peak performance

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Around 8mil

Eichel can survive without Skinner specifically 

Skinner requires a high end center to reach his peak performance

While I agree the Skinner needs Jack to maximize his effectiveness, but I disagree that Jack and the team doesn’t need Skinner as well.   They have elevated each other to new levels. To a certain extent it’s no different then combining Ratanen with MacKinnon.  Go look at Mac’s numbers before Ratanen arrived. Go look at Schiefele now that Laine is on his wing.  

Usually we talk about buying extra years with RFA re-signs, but the opposite is true on longer UFA deals.  Skinner will probably take a little less on an annualized basis to get a extra year or two. I’ll stick with 8.5 x 7 years.

[mjd1001]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

As always, you go by comparables. 

The issue is how much this career year plays a factor. For his career, Skinner is a 30-goal, 55-point man.

 Highest UFA contract ever given a winger is Pat Kane’s $10.5

Recent comparables include:

Voracek $8.2

Kessel $8

Ryan $7.2

Kane $7

Van Reimsdyk $7

Marchand $6.1

Okposo $6

Lucic $6

I would suggest $7 is fair value based on his career, but this season and his fit on the team should push him as high as $8. 

I’d say eight years is a given.

Comparables? Maybe.  I think the biggest thing overlooked by the media and most fans (not all) is cap percentage.

In the year you sign him, what is the percentage of the Cap space you are taking up?  Kane got $10.5 per year (cap hit, all that matters really) in a year where the cap was...$71.4 million.  14.7 percent of the Salary Cap.  What is the estimate of the Cap next year...$84 million is what I though I read?  Kane's deal..at the same percentage of the cap in his first year..would have to be about $12.4 million if he signed it this offseason.

I don't like Skinner at $8.5...but about 10% of the projected cap space in year one...and less and less as the years go by. I can live with that I guess.

 

The question we should all be answering...if we really want to consider comparables...is what Percentage of the cap we want to pay Skinner in year 1 of his deal...and then compare it to other players in terms of what percentage of the cap the first year of their long term deal was.

Edited December 20, 2018 by mjd1001

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

Comparables? Maybe.  I think the biggest thing overlooked by the media and most fans (not all) is cap percentage.

In the year you sign him, what is the percentage of the Cap space you are taking up?  Kane got $10.5 per year (cap hit, all that matters really) in a year where the cap was...$71.4 million.  14.7 percent of the Salary Cap.  What is the estimate of the Cap next year...$84 million is what I though I read?  Kane's deal..at the same percentage of the cap in his first year..would have to be about $12.4 million if he signed it this offseason.

I don't like Skinner at $8.5...but about 10% of the projected cap space in year one...and less and less as the years go by. I can live with that I guess.

Well said.

[dudacek]

The cap percentage thing is absolutely real.

Edited December 20, 2018 by dudacek

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Comparables? Maybe.  I think the biggest thing overlooked by the media and most fans (not all) is cap percentage.

In the year you sign him, what is the percentage of the Cap space you are taking up?  Kane got $10.5 per year (cap hit, all that matters really) in a year where the cap was...$71.4 million.  14.7 percent of the Salary Cap.  What is the estimate of the Cap next year...$84 million is what I though I read?  Kane's deal..at the same percentage of the cap in his first year..would have to be about $12.4 million if he signed it this offseason.

I don't like Skinner at $8.5...but about 10% of the projected cap space in year one...and less and less as the years go by. I can live with that I guess.

Hoping he comes in on a 7 year deal at $8/ and better yet at slightly under that average on an 8 year deal.  He might have slightly better payday elsewhere (though that 8th year has to be considered by him & Buffalo is the only place he can get it - they AREN'T trading him before the deadline) but can't believe he'll have a better situation between usage & youthful core from a team that is positioned to offer him more.  Maybe Colorado were they to let Rantanen walk (which would make no sense, so that wouldn't happen)?

Throw in his being close to home here in Buffalo & he might take a smidge lessin AAV through thst 8th year than he would elsewhere.

Would guess your thought of $8.5/ comes pretty close to the actual deal.  (Though still hoping for less.)

[pi2000]

William Karlsson scored 43g last season and got a one year $5.25m deal, largely because his shooting % was outrageously high at 23.4% AND he was a RFA.     He's on pace for about 30g this season, shooting at 17%.

Skinner is on pace for 64g this season and is shooting 23.4%... same % as Karlsson last season.

For that reason, I suspect they won't offer him anything over $7.5m.    $7.25m would be my guess since it's obvious he really enjoys playing in Buffalo.

[GASabresIUFAN]

17 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

William Karlsson scored 43g last season and got a one year $5.25m deal, largely because his shooting % was outrageously high at 23.4% AND he was a RFA.     He's on pace for about 30g this season, shooting at 17%.

Skinner is on pace for 64g this season and is shooting 23.4%... same % as Karlsson last season.

For that reason, I suspect they won't offer him anything over $7.5m.    $7.25m would be my guess since it's obvious he really enjoys playing in Buffalo.

Nice comparable.  But.... Karlsson was never a scorer until last season.  Skinner, in 7 full seasons, has 3 30+ goal seasons and 3 other 20+ goal seasons.

[nfreeman]

I kinda think it will end up being pretty close to 8x8.  

[SDS]

42 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I kinda think it will end up being pretty close to 8x8.  

8x8 is the new 5x5...

[LGR4GM]

There are currently... 24 players that are at 8mil or more in the NHL. That is before Marner and Matthews and Ratanen types get paid. 

If I were GM Bots, I would try to get him to sign for the Kuznetsov rate. 8yrs, 62.4mil. or 7.8mil per year. 

Edited December 21, 2018 by LGR4GM